The draft move I most want to see

[ctpatsfan77]

"The New England Patriots have traded the first of their second-round selections to the Chicago Bears for the Bears' third-round pick in 2010 and their first-round pick in 2011."

Anyone else with me?

 

[maverick4]

Is this specific for wanting the Bears pick, or you just want to see them roll over and pick up another future 1st?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Is this specific for wanting the Bears pick, or you just want to see them roll over and pick up another future 1st?

Bears in particular. They've really screwed the pooch: not only did they overpay for Cutler, and are now basically stuck with him, but they also traded away their second in 2010 for one of the Bucs' DLs. If that doesn't sound like low-hanging fruit, I'm not sure what would.

As for other offers, I'm not sure if anyone will offer, knowing the Pats already have one extra first-rounder, nor am I sure that the Pats would accept if someone did (Reiss, I think, reported that they were offered a first in 2010 for one of their high picks this year, but turned it down). In any case, I wouldn't be averse to it, especially if the Pats picked up a third-rounder in the process.

 

[Metaphors]

Bears in particular. They've really screwed the pooch: not only did they overpay for Cutler, and are now basically stuck with him, but they also traded away their second in 2010 for one of the Bucs' DLs. If that doesn't sound like low-hanging fruit, I'm not sure what would.

I like the thinking. My draft binky in 2009 was the Panthers' 2010 1st round pick. The Panthers didn't have a 1st, Fox on the hot seat...it just made too much sense. And Delhomme was sure to blow up their season (though even I underestimated his suckage). In fact, it is likely he threw a pick during this post.

I'm not sure yet about trading out of the 2010 1st round. If the expect flood of juniors come out, a late 1st/early 2nd could be an amazing value. I'm inclined to get some help at #32 this year and start the "pay it forward" cycle again in 2010 (use the early 1st, trade the later 1st into the next year, rinse and repeat). But it is still early and lots can still happen.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm not sure yet about trading out of the 2010 1st round. If the expect flood of juniors come out, a late 1st/early 2nd could be an amazing value. I'm inclined to get some help at #32 this year and start the "pay it forward" cycle again in 2010 (use the early 1st, trade the later 1st into the next year, rinse and repeat). But it is still early and lots can still happen.

As I said. . . .

traded the first of their second-round selections

 

[Metaphors]

As I said. . . .

traded the first of their second-round selections

I know, but it looks more like that pick will be in the 40's now. Assuming a draft salary scale in 2011, trading down from 42 to 75 won't get you a 2011 1st round pick from a team that isn't even a probable playoff team. Trading 42 straight up might get it done but I'm not even sure about that. So I substituted the Pats pick at #32 in your equation instead.

I think the salary scale is going to make 1st round picks like gold moving forward (which is the way they should be). A GM would need to have a fairly loose grip on reality and absolutely no football sense to trade away a 2011 1st round pick.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

With 18 or 19 FA at the end of the year. I think BB's draft will be tied to what happens with those players.

If BB loses a bunch, he may need that extra second round pick.

I BB resigns most of those players, then BB needs to trade the Pats 1st this year, all three 2nd rounders and their first in next years draft and walk away with Mount Cody and McClain on day one.

 

[mayoclinic]

With 18 or 19 FA at the end of the year. I think BB's draft will be tied to what happens with those players.

If BB loses a bunch, he may need that extra second round pick.

I BB resigns most of those players, then BB needs to trade the Pats 1st this year, all three 2nd rounders and their first in next years draft and walk away with Mount Cody and McClain on day one.

I think that with the depth in this draft that there's a good chance BB uses all 4 picks. He already has 2 1st round picks in 2010, which may be a very thin draft because of the large number of juniors predicted to come out this year.

With that said, if someone likely to pick in the top 10 next year wants to trade for our 1st round pick or earliest 2nd, I'd strongly consider it. 2011 is likely to lack depth, but there should be a lot of blue chippers at the top (WR AJ Green WR Jonathan Baldwin, WR Michael Floyd, DE Robert Quinn, CB Patrick Peterson) and with a likely rookie salary scale the cost of a top 10 pick won't be prohibitive. I'd be thrilled to see us be able to get a WR with one pick and Robert Quinn or Patrick Peterson with the other.

 

[everlong]

If BB resigns most of those players, then BB needs to trade the Pats 1st this year, all three 2nd rounders and their first in next years draft and walk away with Mount Cody and McClain on day one.

While I appreciate your man crush for Cody I would say the odds of that happening are 0%. There are very few absolutes in life but this is one.

Only chance we draft Cody is some team near the top ten actually bites on Wilfork and then we trade up to get him. And the odds of somebody that high paying the two firsts for him him is probably like .1%. I'd raise it if Snyder didn't already pay Haynesworth all that coin and if they played a 3-4.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

2011 is likely to lack depth, but there should be a lot of blue chippers at the top (WR AJ Green WR Jonathan Baldwin, WR Michael Floyd, DE Robert Quinn, CB Patrick Peterson) and with a likely rookie salary scale the cost of a top 10 pick won't be prohibitive. I'd be thrilled to see us be able to get a WR with one pick and Robert Quinn or Patrick Peterson with the other.

Hah. We think way too much alike; those are exactly the guys I'm hoping to target in 2011.

 

[Jimke]

With 18 or 19 FA at the end of the year. I think BB's draft will be tied to what happens with those players.

If BB loses a bunch, he may need that extra second round pick.

I BB resigns most of those players, then BB needs to trade the Pats 1st this year, all three 2nd rounders and their first in next years draft and walk away with Mount Cody and McClain on day one.

CBA or not, the Patriots will probably lose at least one guard (Neal),

a tight end (Watson), a cornerback (Bodden), linebacker/defensive

end (Burgess), and defensive end (Green). They may also franchise

or franchise/trade Wilfork and trade or cut Thomas.

With the exception of Bodden, they will need replacements for these

players. The 2010 draft looks to be loaded with juniors. The Pats

could repeat last year's excellent draft with their #1 and three #2 picks.

 

[mayoclinic]

Hah. We think way too much alike; those are exactly the guys I'm hoping to target in 2011.

The way I see it, our first choice would be for someone we really want (e.g., Rolando McClain or Derrick Morgan) to slip to the end of the 1st round. Then I'd jump all over them.

If that doesn't happen, then just like in 2009 there will be a lot of red chippers bunched together. With 3 second round picks, I'd strongly consider trading our 1st rounder to a bottom-dwelling team that has a lot of needs and wants to pick up another solid player, in exchange for a 2011 1st rounder that could potentially be in the top 10.

Barring those 2 options, I suspect we trade back like we did last year and try to stockpile some extra picks. We have no 3rd round pick this year by virtue of the Burgess trade, and there will probably be guys going in the 3rd round who are borderline 1st round talents - this draft will likely be that deep.

My wet dream of the moment: Jonathan Baldwin and Robert Quinn in the 2011 1st round. That would be surreal.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

My wet dream of the moment: Jonathan Baldwin and Robert Quinn in the 2011 1st round. That would be surreal.

Not to throw too wet of a blanket on the proceedings, but what ever came of his arrest? [If what ESPN wrote was true, Myra might not be too happy with Mr. Baldwin. . . .]

 

[O'Doyle Rules!]

Bears in particular. They've really screwed the pooch: not only did they overpay for Cutler, and are now basically stuck with him, but they also traded away their second in 2010 for one of the Bucs' DLs. If that doesn't sound like low-hanging fruit, I'm not sure what would.

As for other offers, I'm not sure if anyone will offer, knowing the Pats already have one extra first-rounder, nor am I sure that the Pats would accept if someone did (Reiss, I think, reported that they were offered a first in 2010 for one of their high picks this year, but turned it down). In any case, I wouldn't be averse to it, especially if the Pats picked up a third-rounder in the process.

I've always kind of had it in the back of my mind that the 2nd round pick we acquired from Jacksonville would be potentially traded back to them for their 2011 1st. That is really the ideal spot for them to grab Tim Tebow, which their owner has made pretty clear they want to, whereas their 1st round pick could be used for a player who presents more value to them than selling tickets. Can't imagine the Pats would have any objection to this...

 

[SidelineSid]

CBA or not, the Patriots will probably lose at least one guard (Neal),

a tight end (Watson), a cornerback (Bodden), linebacker/defensive

end (Burgess), and defensive end (Green). They may also franchise

or franchise/trade Wilfork and trade or cut Thomas.

With the exception of Bodden, they will need replacements for these

players. The 2010 draft looks to be loaded with juniors. The Pats

could repeat last year's excellent draft with their #1 and three #2 picks.

I agree with you. There could be serious turnover after this year. I don't know if our team is Super Bowl caliber. There are still many more tests before we find out. What we do know is that we definitely need to make some changes.

1.) We don't use our tight end enough in the passing game to justify making a huge investment in the position. For all of Watson's athleticism, it goes unused because we rarely get him consistently involved in our offense, (especially considering our needs for a reliable third receiver).

2.) Bodden had a good game against the Jets, but he had a terrible second half against the Colts. I think we should all wait and see how this plays out. The last thing we need to do is pay this guy Asante Samuel money. Not Asante is worth that much.

3.) Burgess isn't worth it. Period! He needs to be upgraded.

4.) Green is a good back up, but not a starter. more importantly, he can't be kept as a back up, but payed as a starter (as he is now).

5.) Resign big Vince. He is a stabling presence to this D. Although, he may play on skates sometimes, he does perform. However, if a team is dumb enough to offer us two first round draft choices for him, I say we bite. I know how important a good 3-4 lineman is, but I think that the Jets, 49's, Broncos, Packers have shown us that you can win without first round talent.

Note: The deficiencies of those teams are not within the defensive line. THe Jets have a rookie QB, the 49's have a poor QB, the Broncos have an injured QB, and the Packers have no O-line.

6.) Trade Adalius for whatever we can get for him. He is not a complete player. He is good in the running game. The problem is that he is one dimensional in passing game. Teams don't have to be overly concerned about him as a pass rusher. He can cover, but a tight end or running back can usually stop him. We need a more complete linebacker.

7.) Neal is old and will be calling it quits soon. Mankins is good, but draws a lot of stupid penalties. We are going to have to find a quality replacement for them because we don't really have one on the roster. And, if anyone really thinks so, do they want to risk Tom's health on such a gamble. A quality young lineman could definitely help our running game or our passing game.

8.) My recommendation is that we spend ALL, (and I mean ALL), our first day picks on the trenches. We could use a quality defensive linemen either is the Richard Seymour mold, or a hybrid pass rusher, or an interior offensive linemen. The good news is that we can get a quality interior offensive lineman and a 3-4 lineman with a couple early second round draft choices. We have several of those and we should use them.

9.) Other than McClain or Mt. Cody, there doesn't seem to be a defensive player that is consistent enough to warrant the trade of several draft choices.

 

[mayoclinic]

My recommendation is that we spend ALL, (and I mean ALL), our first day picks on the trenches. We could use a quality defensive linemen either is the Richard Seymour mold, or a hybrid pass rusher, or an interior offensive linemen. The good news is that we can get a quality interior offensive lineman and a 3-4 lineman with a couple early second round draft choices. We have several of those and we should use them.

I might even go further than this. I would like to see us get an early 3rd round pick back (possibly by trading Matt Light, Adalius Thomas or James Sanders) in addition to our top 4 picks. It's likely that the depth in this draft will be unreal, and that an early 3rd round pick will be very close to a late 1st round pick.

With those 5 picks I would consider taking 5 lineman:

- 2 pass rushers, guys who can play DE or OLB. Possibly 1 who is more of an elephant type, and one who is more of an Adalius Thomas type.
- An interior OL, such as Mike Iupati or Maurkice Pouncey. Gabe Carimi of Wisconsin could probably also move inside.
- A RT who can significantly upgrade the position over Nick Kaczur, and hopefully do for the right side what Sebastian Vollmer is doing for the left. I think junior Joseph Barksdale of LSU is that guy. Gabe Carimi of Wisconsin is also interesting.
- A 3-4 DE. Cameron Heyward of Ohio State is my favorite prospect right now. Arthur Jones, Jared Odrick, Corey Wootton, Adrian Clayborn, Allen Bailey, Marvin Austin, Cameron Jordan, Leonard Marsh and Vince Oghobasse are also worth considering. Some of those guys will be available in the 3rd round.

The only other position I would personally consider (I understand that some would consider WR or TE; I wouldn't) in the first 2+ rounds would be RB, specifically Jonathan Dwyer or Ryan Mathews. But there is a lot to be said for upgrading the OL first.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I see a couple of different moves being kind of obvious(to me at least). Its a deep draft and we have a glaring hole on our draft board so one trade back involving us getting a 3rd/4th back is likely. Second, if the off field talks are coming along as predicted, I can see us trading the our #1 from the Raiders('11) to a lower first rounder this year(10)say #22. With the value of that pick maximized(juniors) without the huge potential cap hit, right? Only with this trade can we get our needed 6 picks in the top 100.
We need a RB(Maroney), DE(Green), LB(Thomas), TE(Watson), G(Mankins),G(Neal-though I expect Ohmberger to win that spot), Elephant(Burgess)in the draft as well as a backup T(Light) which could be an affordable FA. If Light takes a serious pay cut he might get kicked inside to take Mankins' spot.
For me you can add DT(Wilfork) too, especially if Brace emerges at the end of the year. If Jenkins was the best NT in the league, why hasnt the Jets run D suffered much? No one has "exposed" that hole. I suggest its the most over rated position on this team.
These moves conservatively save us $25Million, which we can use to extend TB and pick up a few FA's. We could franchise anyone, maximizing flexibility. It would be nice if we knew if McKenzie and Crable could be the LB/Elephant players we hope them to be before the draft.....but you cant make the club from the tub. With low round and undrafted binkys making this and other teams jobs dont have to be guaranteed. Its nice for everyone to see the higher round picks do well as it justifys the process....but as evidenced its simply not necessary.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

We need a RB(Maroney), DE(Green), LB(Thomas), TE(Watson), G(Mankins),G(Neal-though I expect Ohmberger to win that spot), Elephant(Burgess)in the draft as well as a backup T(Light) which could be an affordable FA. If Light takes a serious pay cut he might get kicked inside to take Mankins' spot.
For me you can add DT(Wilfork) too, especially if Brace emerges at the end of the year. If Jenkins was the best NT in the league, why hasnt the Jets run D suffered much? No one has "exposed" that hole. I suggest its the most over rated position on this team.

(1) Almost nobody who actually earns a living from the NFL thinks Wilfork will reach unrestricted free agency. Plus given that Wilfork is doing well at NT and end, I don't see any reason to think otherwise.

(2) Also, unless there's a new CBA, Mankins is a restricted free agent, not an unrestricted one. And even if there is, Mankins may still be a restricted free agent (the NFLPA seems willing to let this year's FA rules stand if it means they get a new CBA this year instead of next year).

(3) The Pats will be looking for a replacement for Morris/Taylor far more than they will a replacement for Maroney.

 

[SidelineSid]

I see a couple of different moves being kind of obvious(to me at least). Its a deep draft and we have a glaring hole on our draft board so one trade back involving us getting a 3rd/4th back is likely. Second, if the off field talks are coming along as predicted, I can see us trading the our #1 from the Raiders('11) to a lower first rounder this year(10)say #22. With the value of that pick maximized(juniors) without the huge potential cap hit, right? Only with this trade can we get our needed 6 picks in the top 100.
We need a RB(Maroney), DE(Green), LB(Thomas), TE(Watson), G(Mankins),G(Neal-though I expect Ohmberger to win that spot), Elephant(Burgess)in the draft as well as a backup T(Light) which could be an affordable FA. If Light takes a serious pay cut he might get kicked inside to take Mankins' spot.
For me you can add DT(Wilfork) too, especially if Brace emerges at the end of the year. If Jenkins was the best NT in the league, why hasnt the Jets run D suffered much? No one has "exposed" that hole. I suggest its the most over rated position on this team.
These moves conservatively save us $25Million, which we can use to extend TB and pick up a few FA's. We could franchise anyone, maximizing flexibility. It would be nice if we knew if McKenzie and Crable could be the LB/Elephant players we hope them to be before the draft.....but you cant make the club from the tub. With low round and undrafted binkys making this and other teams jobs dont have to be guaranteed. Its nice for everyone to see the higher round picks do well as it justifys the process....but as evidenced its simply not necessary.

While I wouldn't go so far as to say that Wilfork's position is overrated, I do think that we do not need first round talent all across a 3-4 line to have a successful defense. High second round picks can contribute effectively. In our situation, low end draft picks and un drafted players have made key contributions to our line. The one area that needs significant attention is the pass rush.

A good 4-3 pass rusher would be a great investment for this team. Eventually the young player could transition to 3-4 outside linebacker, but the ability to pressure the quarterback would be his primary contribution to the team.

Regarding that 2011 first round pick, that should not be traded. Most likely the league will have a rookie pay scale by then. more importantly, the Raiders don't have a true starting quarterback. This means that they could seriously suck for years to come. If we could hold onto that pick, we could get a top 5 player for next to nothing. That could mean the defensive lineman, (you can never have enough), the best linebacker, the best wide receiver, or the best running back.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think that with the depth in this draft that there's a good chance BB uses all 4 picks. He already has 2 1st round picks in 2010, which may be a very thin draft because of the large number of juniors predicted to come out this year.

With that said, if someone likely to pick in the top 10 next year wants to trade for our 1st round pick or earliest 2nd, I'd strongly consider it. 2011 is likely to lack depth, but there should be a lot of blue chippers at the top (WR AJ Green WR Jonathan Baldwin, WR Michael Floyd, DE Robert Quinn, CB Patrick Peterson) and with a likely rookie salary scale the cost of a top 10 pick won't be prohibitive. I'd be thrilled to see us be able to get a WR with one pick and Robert Quinn or Patrick Peterson with the other.

As much as I like Robert Quinn, I'm beginning to think that BB should focus on rebuilding the OL and DL in the 2010 draft. Then he would be free to do the following:

1. Take LSU CB Patrick Peterson with the high pick from the Raiders. Possibly the best CB prospect since Champ Bailey. Peterson and Butler would be a top CB tandem for a while, with Wilhite and Wheatley as the nickel and dime.

2. Trade up to get one of the WRs. With so many likely good ones (AJ Green, Julio Jones, Jonathan Baldwin, Michael Floyd, and DeAndre Brown, among others) one or more will likely be within trade up range.

Build the lines in 2010. Add an impact CB and WR in 2011. That seems like the way to go to me right now, but it's a long ways off.