Week 10: Patriots at Colts position by position breakdown

[Kontradiction]

Just posted this to my blog. Check it out and, as always, comments and criticisms are welcome. Here is a preview:

Week 10: Patriots at Colts PREVIEW - New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard

Patriots offense vs. Colts defense

1. Tom Brady vs. Colts pass defense: With much talk the last week or so about injuries in the Colts secondary, Pats fans have been feeling pretty confident about Brady’s chances vs. the Colts defense. Not so fast, Pats fans. As we all know, the real line of defense for the Colts against another team’s passing game has always been Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Both have been thorns in the collective sides of teams that the Colts have faced over the years, particularly Freeney. In order to see success against the Patriots pass offense, the Colts will rely on both of these men to apply pressure early and often on Tom Brady.

Historically, left tackle Matt Light has been able to keep Freeney off of Brady long enough to allow Brady to complete throws against the Colts defense, which has seen its secondary traditionally outgunned against the Pats wide receivers if Brady is afforded time in the pocket to complete a pass. In this game, however, the Patriots will be leaning on rookie left tackle Sebastian Vollmer and Mark LeVoir, a blocking tight end, to keep Freeney out of the Pats backfield. If this battle is won, Brady will be given time to pick apart the Colts battered secondary and will allow the Patriots to win the game.

Advantage: Brady

 

[Kontradiction]

Oh, and I want to start doing this every week (along with a postgame recap). So feedback, negative or positive, will definitely be welcome to help me improve. All statistical analysis is courtesy of NFL.com's stats page.

 

[ALP]

i believe our secondary has the advantage over the colts wr's, but other than that, i would agree

althought the colts o line hasnt really been tested yet

 

[Metaphors]

You mention Faulk as a part of the screen game, but I think it is more likely that Maroney will be a bigger (at least compared to normal) part of the passing game on Sunday. With his increased time, Maroney has gotten more reps in passing situations. He was open in the flat quite a few times against the Fins but Brady generally had the time to find his targets downfield. If the Colts drop 7 into downfield coverage and rush 5, that could leave a lot of space for Maroney to operate on dump passes.

Actually, you could probably reverse that and say if the Pats sell out to stop Clark and Wayne, then Addai would have that same space (much like the AFCC game). So I guess I've talked myself into a key factor being Maroney vs. Addai in getting effective touches in the passing game.

 

[eagle eye]

You "Fool's" really drink the Kool-aid, there don't you all ?! Advantage Tom Brady, against the Colt's Defense, Pllllleeeeeeeeeasssssssssssssseeeeeeee ! That "Peg-legged "whiner", will get his butt kicked Sunday night !

Oh man a troll. Hate them.

If you want to talk football around here please do so, but why go out attacking everybody?

Calling us fools is hardly going to get you anywhere. You will just get ignored or worse the moderators might just get rid of you.

Please explain the reasons you believe that the Colt's Defense has an advantage over Brady?

Oh but don't bother if all you have to say is this guy is class or that guy is class. We like good intelligent conversation on here.

 

[BelichickFan]

Addai's career averages have gone from 4.8 to 4.1 to 3.5 to 3.4. His career is now 4.1. The much abused Maroney has never had a year under 4.3 other than last year when he only had 28 carries.

 

[Kontradiction]

You "Fool's" really drink the Kool-aid, there don't you all ?! Advantage Tom Brady, against the Colt's Defense, Pllllleeeeeeeeeasssssssssssssseeeeeeee ! That "Peg-legged "whiner", will get his butt kicked Sunday night !

My guess is we won't be seeing you after the game.

 

[Kontradiction]

Addai's career averages have gone from 4.8 to 4.1 to 3.5 to 3.4. His career is now 4.1. The much abused Maroney has never had a year under 4.3 other than last year when he only had 28 carries.

I don't think Addai is that great either. But he has been pretty big against the Pats in his career.

One thing that I should have given is a score prediction at the end of all that. I'm going to go with 27-24 Pats.

 

[N.Eman]

I agree with Kontra - All games we've played have been about getting pressure on Brady. As simple as it may sound he is the key to winning on Sunday. Providing space and time for him to throw the ball. He can't scramble like a Romo, and we dont want him doing that neither, but providing time is essential. I dont know but I got a gut feeling Vollmer will do a ok job on Freeney. We might be impressed if he does excellent, but its something to count on. I just hope the Right side holds up as well.

 

[Kontradiction]

I agree with Kontra - All games we've played have been about getting pressure on Brady. As simple as it may sound he is the key to winning on Sunday. Providing space and time for him to throw the ball. He can't scramble like a Romo, and we dont want him doing that neither, but providing time is essential. I dont know but I got a gut feeling Vollmer will do a ok job on Freeney. We might be impressed if he does excellent, but its something to count on. I just hope the Right side holds up as well.

I expect Vollmer to get LOTS of help with Freeney, unless Light comes back and he doesn't even play (unlikely).

 

[BelichickFan]

I don't think Addai is that great either. But he has been pretty big against the Pats in his career.

Addai was 17-32 last year against us but he did have a big game in 2007 even discounting the brain dead play we allowed on the reception at the end of the half. The more Addai runs the better for me, it keeps the ball out of the air and I don't think Addai beats us.

Great thread btw.

 

[Kontradiction]

Addai was 17-32 last year against us but he did have a big game in 2007 even discounting the brain dead play we allowed on the reception at the end of the half. The more Addai runs the better for me, it keeps the ball out of the air and I don't think Addai beats us.

Great thread btw.

Yeah. We shouldn't forget that Manning attempted 40 passes in the first half this past Sunday against a team with a good pass rush. The only way that Addai sees more carries is if Mayo, TBC, and/or AD find their way into the Colts backfield and start hammering Manning, which I stated was possible, but still unlikely.

 

[mystrymaster]

I can agree with your assesment except for one


BB better then Caldwell???


Pa and lease, Caldwell has never lost a game in his NFL head coaching career how can you possibly say Darth Hoodie is better?

LOL

Good right up man, the above lesson is a lesson in how stats can be made to say anything, and a good natured joke.

 

[Kontradiction]

I can agree with your assesment except for one


BB better then Caldwell???


Pa and lease, Caldwell has never lost a game in his NFL head coaching career how can you possibly say Darth Hoodie is better?

LOL

Good right up man, the above lesson is a lesson in how stats can be made to say anything, and a good natured joke.

Eh, I think I used the word "physical" a little too much in the second to last paragraph. But shoot me. This is just my second blog and I can improve.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

You "Fool's" really drink the Kool-aid, there don't you all ?! Advantage Tom Brady, against the Colt's Defense, Pllllleeeeeeeeeasssssssssssssseeeeeeee ! That "Peg-legged "whiner", will get his butt kicked Sunday night !

stop back when you can add something constructive, maybe when Mommy lets you use the computer again.

 

[HarkDawg]

I can agree with your assesment except for one


BB better then Caldwell???


Pa and lease, Caldwell has never lost a game in his NFL head coaching career how can you possibly say Darth Hoodie is better?

I assume this is sarcasm........

If it isn't.... You are a lost cause.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The question is not if Brady has time the Patriots will win the game as much as it is can the defense interrupt Manning and not give him time to throw all night.

I have more confidence in Brady finding guys open with pressure or no pressure than I have in this defense getting to Manning in time and causing him to release the ball early than he wants...that WILL decide this game.

 

[Patriot 37]

Rushing mostly plays Special Teams. Jaraud Powers has been starting for them pretty much all season, another rookie Lacey plays in the nickel.

Anyway all 4 of their CBs are 5-9 or shorter. I love the match up with Moss not just on deep balls, but on the 10-15 yard outs they like to run against cover 2 teams.

 

[mystrymaster]

I assume this is sarcasm........

If it isn't.... You are a lost cause.

What clued you in? The LOL or the fact that I stated it was just a joke



Yeah it was a joke.

 

[falloutboy14]

As another poster said, Rushing is our normal kick returner and in light of the injuries, 4th on the CB depth chart. Our depth is Powers(R), Lacey(R), Jennings, Rushing, until Hayden returns in December-ish. I wouldn't expect to see Rushing on the field on defense unless there's more injuries.

Jennings, I believe, is the fastest CB, and was on Moss-duty in '07, can't remember last year. But he's also the weakest corner of the trio coverage-wise. Ideally, I'd like to see Powers on Welker, Lacey & Bullit on Moss, and Bethea deep. If the Pats go 3-wide, put Jennings & Bullit on Moss and put Lacey on the 3rd.

I think you may be selling our rush defense short. I'm going to mess around with some stats, so feel free to not believe what I say but ...
In the Colts/Miami game, the Colts gave up 235 yds on 48 carries, which is 4.9 ypc. In the 7 other games, the Colts have given up, 630 yds, 90 yds per game, and 4.1 ypc. I'm still not quite sure if its improved DT play, or a different defensive philosophy, but this is the best run D the Colts have had in some time, excluding the '06 playoffs.

I'm not sure if any of you were aware of this, but in years past, Freeney/Mathis would take wide-looping arcs around the O-line, in a sort of 'stop the run if you can on the way to the QB' philosophy, making wide running lanes in the gaps they left. I haven't seen that nearly as often this season, and am curious if we'll go that route, focusing on pass-rush or not.