Walter Football 10/8 3 round mock draft

[mayoclinic]

Here's a new 3 rounder from Walter football:

WalterFootball.com: 2010 NFL Mock Draft

They have the Pats picking at 26, 42, 48 and 58, and have us taking:

26. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St. Doubt he lasts this long, but I don't want us to go WR in 2010.
42. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech. A home run as far as I'm concerned.
48. George Selvie, DE/OLB, South Florida. Not the DE/OLB I'd pick.
58. Mich Petrus, OG, Arkansas.

Given picking at those spots and the draft falling as they have it, my choice would be:

26. One of 3 players:
- Derrick Morgan, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech. 6'4", 270#, a young Jared Allen (going #27 to Minnesota, which would be scary).
- Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri. 6'2", 247#, in the Patrick Willis mold (going #30 to New Orleans, which would also be scary).
- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama. 6'4", 255# SILB (going #31 to the Colts, which would be a misfit).
I'd probably go for Morgan right now, but it's close. I'd be ecstatic if any of the 3 were available when we actually pick in the 1st round.
42. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech. 6'1" 235#. A young Corey Dillon.
41 (trade up with Buffalo). One of 3 players:
- Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU. 6'2", 257# (going #43 to Miami).
- Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas. 6'4", 255#, probably under 4.60 (going #44 to Arizona).
- Brankon Spikes, ILB, Florida. 6'3", 253# (going #45 to Dallas).
At 41 with Jonathan Dwyer and these 3 guys on the board and us picking at 42 and 48 (and Miami, Arizona and Dallas picking 43-45) I'd try to trade up to make sure I get one of them. Who I take depends on who went at 26. If we took Weatherspoon or McClain, then I go with Hughes or Kindle at DE/OLB. M-W-F I'd take Kindle. T-Th-F I'd go with Hughes. I'd prefer either to Selvie, who is too light to be effective in the Pats' system. T-Th-S I'd prefer Hughes. If we took Morgan than I'd probably go with Spikes, who could play 3-4 SILB and 4-3 SAM.
58. One of 2 players:
- Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho. A 6'6" 330# behemoth who would give us the best pair of interior lineman in the NFL if we could resign Mankins. A bigger, stronger Mankins. Could be a legitimate 1st round pick come April. (Not listed in the first 3 rounds of this mock).
- Corey Wooten, DE, Northwestern. 6'7", 280#. Incredibly talented DE who would have been a 1st round pick last year before getting injured in his bowl game. Has been slow to come back from injury this year, and hasn't regained his junior form, but could be a great 3-4/4-3 DE.

The "best case scenario" out of those options is probably:

27. Derrick Morgan, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech.
41. Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida.
42. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech.
58. Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho.

Dwyer running behind Mankins and Iupata would be something to see. Hope it happens.

Other favorite players:

8. Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa.
13. Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland. One of my sleepers for a possible 1st round OT pick, he seems to be getting too much press. Will likely also be a workout warrior at the combine.
21. Jahvid Best, RB, Cal.
25. Eric Norwood, DE/OLB, South Carolina.
46. Jason Fox, OT, Miami.
49. Arthur Jones, DE/DT, Syracuse.
77. Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If Miami gets Mount Cody, I will be crushed, followed shortly there after by Dan Koppen.

If Jamal Williams dominated Koppen last year, just think of what Cody will do to him next year. That would be scary.

 

[mayoclinic]

If Miami gets Mount Cody, I will be crushed, followed shortly there after by Dan Koppen.

If Jamal Williams dominated Koppen last year, just think of what Cody will do to him next year. That would be scary.

If Miami gets Mount Cody and we get Mike Iupati to go along with Logan Mankins, we'll be fine.

 

[cstjohn17]

Here's a new 3 rounder from Walter football:

WalterFootball.com: 2010 NFL Mock Draft

They have the Pats picking at 26, 42, 48 and 58, and have us taking:

26. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St. Doubt he lasts this long, but I don't want us to go WR in 2010.
42. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech. A home run as far as I'm concerned.
48. George Selvie, DE/OLB, South Florida. Not the DE/OLB I'd pick.
58. Mich Petrus, OG, Arkansas.

Not crazy about a WR in round 1, I prefer to trade a 2nd and 3rd rounder for something shiny and fast...

I like that draft, but it is early.

Cody gets a lot of love but isn't he a couple of cheeseburgers away from being a total washout? Koppen struggles with the Kris Jenkins, Jamar Williams, Casey Hamptons of the world, but who doesn't? I think overall the Pats record is pretty good against these teams a single player isn't going to shift the tide one way or the other.

 

[Patriot 37]

I can't believe Spikes would be there in the 2nd Round, but if he was I love to see him with the Pats.

 

[mayoclinic]

I can't believe Spikes would be there in the 2nd Round, but if he was I love to see him with the Pats.

He probably won't be there, but no one throught Maualuga and Laurinaitis would make it to the 2nd round either. ILBs tend to fall, and Spikes' stock seems to have slipped just a tad this season. It's too early to tell where he'll end up - he could go top 20, or late 1st round, or even early 2nd. I doubt at this point he'll be a top 11 pick like Aaron Curry, Jerod Mayo or Patrick Willis.

 

[mayoclinic]

Not crazy about a WR in round 1, I prefer to trade a 2nd and 3rd rounder for something shiny and fast...

I like that draft, but it is early.

Cody gets a lot of love but isn't he a couple of cheeseburgers away from being a total washout? Koppen struggles with the Kris Jenkins, Jamar Williams, Casey Hamptons of the world, but who doesn't? I think overall the Pats record is pretty good against these teams a single player isn't going to shift the tide one way or the other.

Hampton, Jenkins and Williams are all 30+ and injury prone. There aren't many other guys like them around. Ochmed is in love with Mount Cody, but I haven't seen enough to believe that he'll be the real deal.

I would go WR in the 1st round in 2010. Possibly in 2011, but not 2010.

A lot of guys who were considered top 20 picks at the beginning of the season have slipped a bit and could fall to our range. Jonathan Dwyer (RBs tend to fall), Brandon Spikes (ditto ILBs) and Sergio Kindle (talented but a better athlete than football player right now), for example. Some will go 1st round, but others will slip. With 4 day 1 picks (including probably between 25 and 48) we should be able to pick up some very solid contributors for reasonable money.

 

[Marqui]

48. George Selvie, DE/OLB, South Florida. Not the DE/OLB I'd pick.

Why not? He seems like the pass rushing DE/OLB hybrid that we need.

 

[mayoclinic]

Why not? He seems like the pass rushing DE/OLB hybrid that we need.

Too small for our system. At 6'4" 245# he's more Crable sized than Vrable sized. He's a nice player with a terrific motor who's done well in college, but I don't see him being strong enough to overpower NFL linemen or quick enough to be an Elvis Dumervil type of pass rusher (and Dumervil wouldn't really fit what BB looks for, good as he is). I'm not sure he's strong enough to hold the edge.

JMHO. I'd rather have Morgan, Kindle or Hughes. Others will disagree with me. Here's one profile that gushes about Selvie, for example:

George Selvie - Football's Future NFL Draft Profile

George Selvie DE/OLB 6’4 245 South Florida Jr.

Selvie had a phenomenal freshman season where he totaled 84 tackles, 15 for loss, and 5.5 sacks. That success was nothing compared to his monstrous sophomore campaign. He had 59 tackles, and a nation leader 31.5 for loss, and 14.5 sacks. He was a unanimous All America and Big East Defensive Player of the Year, setting school records with those numbers.

Strengths

Selvie is an absolute beast off the edge. His all around numbers are amazing. Not only does he put up the sack numbers, but he makes plays all over the field. He is a great athlete that truly knows how to get after the passer. He can beat blockers with his quick first step, a bull rush, or with his agility. What is so special about Selvie his is relentlessness on the field. You can find pass rushers with his blend of natural talent, which includes excellent quickness, athleticism, and very good closing speed. But you do not find many who never give up on a play and one who will chase running plays down the line of scrimmage and beyond. He is a pass rusher off the edge, but will also help in the run game. Selvie projects best as a 3-4 OLB but could play a 4-3 end spot with some added weight.

Weaknesses

Weight is the big issue with Selvie. He is a defensive end, but he simply is not big enough to play with his hand down consistently in the NFL. His body would wear down and it would limit his effectiveness. He may not have the body type to support any more weight, but that will not stop him from trying.

Future

Should Selvie declare, he will be one of the most attractive defensive players available. He is more than just a pass rusher, and will give his team a boost with his energy. At his current size he brings more value to 3-4 teams, but any of those teams picking in the top half of the first round will take a long look at George Selvie.

 

[BritPat]

I hear you about what BB normally looks for in our OLB's and the like, but Selvie is scary good. BB took Crable seemingly based on his intangibles and ability, his lack of proto-typical OLB physique didn't seem to matter that much - I think if Selvie continues his dominant career, and is available, BB would look long and hard, especially with the main 4-3 look we're going with at the minute.

 

[mayoclinic]

I hear you about what BB normally looks for in our OLB's and the like, but Selvie is scary good. BB took Crable seemingly based on his intangibles and ability, his lack of proto-typical OLB physique didn't seem to matter that much - I think if Selvie continues his dominant career, and is available, BB would look long and hard, especially with the main 4-3 look we're going with at the minute.

I see Selvie as not being at all suited to the 4-3. 245 lb. DE's have no place in our system.

I don't agree about Selvie being "scary good". He had a terrific sophomore year, catching teams by surprise. He has a great motor, and is a good kid. But he's not more talented than half a dozen other DE/OLB prospects out there. If I'm picking someone under 250 lbs. I'd go with Ricky Sapp at this point, who's speed coming of the edge is much better than Selvie's. If I want more versatile players I'd go with Jerry Hughes or Sergio Kindle. But if we want someone who can play DE in the 4-3 and the elephant I'd go with Derrick Morgan from Georgia Tech or Greg Hardy from Mississippi.

 

[cstjohn17]

Re: Walter Footbhttp://www.patsfans.com/all 10/8 3 round mock draft

I see Selvie as not being at all suited to the 4-3. 245 lb. DE's have no place in our system.

I don't agree about Selvie being "scary good". He had a terrific sophomore year, catching teams by surprise. He has a great motor, and is a good kid. But he's not more talented than half a dozen other DE/OLB prospects out there. If I'm picking someone under 250 lbs. I'd go with Ricky Sapp at this point, who's speed coming of the edge is much better than Selvie's. If I want more versatile players I'd go with Jerry Hughes or Sergio Kindle. But if we want someone who can play DE in the 4-3 and the elephant I'd go with Derrick Morgan from Georgia Tech or Greg Hardy from Mississippi.

I don't get it, the Pats are not a pure 4-3 time they are multiple... tell me if you have heard that before. Selvie is almost the exact same size as TBC and Burgess (but with upside) and could play DE in passing situations or transition to OLB.

The team could use someone who can get to the QB, I would strongly consider this guy.

nfl.com lists him at number 10 on there list:
Only one QB on this list of Sweet 16 prospects ... and it's not Tebow

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: Walter Footbhttp://www.patsfans.com/all 10/8 3 round mock draft

I don't get it, the Pats are not a pure 4-3 time they are multiple... tell me if you have heard that before. Selvie is almost the exact same size as TBC and Burgess (but with upside) and could play DE in passing situations or transition to OLB.

The team could use someone who can get to the QB, I would strongly consider this guy.

nfl.com lists him at number 10 on there list:
Only one QB on this list of Sweet 16 prospects ... and it's not Tebow

We disagree, obviously. I agree we could use someone who could get to the QB, but I think there are much better players, and players much better suited to our system, then Selvie out there. That's all. If you like him, fine. I think he has a nice motor but limited physical tools to dominate at the next levels, and a frame that can't put on more bulk to hold up at the point of attack. Of course, people thought Dumervil couldn't dominate at the next level and were wrong, and I may be wrong about Selvie. But I'd rather see half a dozen other potential DE/OLB prospects taken on the first day than Selvie, and I don't have anything against the kid.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I don't get it, the Pats are not a pure 4-3 time they are multiple... tell me if you have heard that before. Selvie is almost the exact same size as TBC and Burgess (but with upside) and could play DE in passing situations or transition to OLB.

The team could use someone who can get to the QB, I would strongly consider this guy.

nfl.com lists him at number 10 on there list:
Only one QB on this list of Sweet 16 prospects ... and it's not Tebow

I like Selvie as an edge pass rusher as well, but he reminds me a lot of Crable, and Crable has been pounded onto the trainers table for two straight years.

I do not think TBC or Burgess is the "ideal sized" 3-4 OLB/edge pass rusher in the BB defense. I think that is why they are not FT players, but rather niche players.

I think BB prefers the 6'5" 260-270 lb OLB's. Similar to Willie, Vrabel or Woods.

However if Selvie projects to add some sand in the pants without losing any burst or suddenness, while proving he can set the edge, he could project very nicely in our defense.

PS: Carlos Dunlap of Florida. Is probably going in the top 5, but at 6'6" and 275 lbs. he is a monster off the edge and runs very well. He projects prefectly in our defense.

 

[Marqui]

Too small for our system. At 6'4" 245# he's more Crable sized than Vrable sized. He's a nice player with a terrific motor who's done well in college, but I don't see him being strong enough to overpower NFL linemen or quick enough to be an Elvis Dumervil type of pass rusher (and Dumervil wouldn't really fit what BB looks for, good as he is). I'm not sure he's strong enough to hold the edge.

JMHO. I'd rather have Morgan, Kindle or Hughes. Others will disagree with me. Here's one profile that gushes about Selvie, for example:

George Selvie - Football's Future NFL Draft Profile

George Selvie DE/OLB 6’4 245 South Florida Jr.

Selvie had a phenomenal freshman season where he totaled 84 tackles, 15 for loss, and 5.5 sacks. That success was nothing compared to his monstrous sophomore campaign. He had 59 tackles, and a nation leader 31.5 for loss, and 14.5 sacks. He was a unanimous All America and Big East Defensive Player of the Year, setting school records with those numbers.

Strengths

Selvie is an absolute beast off the edge. His all around numbers are amazing. Not only does he put up the sack numbers, but he makes plays all over the field. He is a great athlete that truly knows how to get after the passer. He can beat blockers with his quick first step, a bull rush, or with his agility. What is so special about Selvie his is relentlessness on the field. You can find pass rushers with his blend of natural talent, which includes excellent quickness, athleticism, and very good closing speed. But you do not find many who never give up on a play and one who will chase running plays down the line of scrimmage and beyond. He is a pass rusher off the edge, but will also help in the run game. Selvie projects best as a 3-4 OLB but could play a 4-3 end spot with some added weight.

Weaknesses

Weight is the big issue with Selvie. He is a defensive end, but he simply is not big enough to play with his hand down consistently in the NFL. His body would wear down and it would limit his effectiveness. He may not have the body type to support any more weight, but that will not stop him from trying.

Future

Should Selvie declare, he will be one of the most attractive defensive players available. He is more than just a pass rusher, and will give his team a boost with his energy. At his current size he brings more value to 3-4 teams, but any of those teams picking in the top half of the first round will take a long look at George Selvie.

Wow, looks like you were right Selvie. His stock is plummeting right now.

 

[mayoclinic]

Wow, looks like you were right Selvie. His stock is plummeting right now.

I would be surprised to see Selvie as a first day pick at this point. He's a nice player, and in the right system could be successful - I see his upside being Robert Mathis at DE or Elvis Dumervil at OLB - but he's not suited for the Pats.

The more I think about it, the more I agree with Ochmed that the Pats really favor OLBs in the 255 (ideally 260+) to 270 range with 6'3"-6'6" length, rather than smaller 3-4 OLBs. Some of the latter have been wildly successful in other 3-4 schemes, such as Elvis Dumervil this year and James Harrison last year, but I don't see the Pats going for the 5'11"-6'2" 240-250# guys so much.

BB doesn't so much look for edge rushers in his 3-4 OLBs as bigger guys who set the edge and shut down the POA, who can take on OLs and collapse the pocket, who can get their arms up and clog the passing lanes, as well as rush the passer and drop back into coverage. Finding the complete package is nearly impossible.

The most successful 3-4 OLBs for us have been McGinest (6'5" 270#), Vrabel (6'4", 265#) and Adalius Thomas (6'2" 270#). Thomas is shorter than desired but has terrific speed and coverage ability. Roosevelt Colvin was 6'3" and 250#+, but still fairly strong against the run. Shawn Crable had the length we liked but wasn't heavy or strong enough to man the POA, and has struggled. You can see why guys like Pierre Woods and Rob Nikovich, who are a bit bulkier and stronger against the run, would be more successful.

With that in mind, I do notsee us going after a lot of the smaller, faster 3-4 DE/OLB hybrids who could be coming out this year, including:

- George Selvie (already discussed)
- Ricky Sapp, Clemson - 6'4" 248# speed guy, but not strong against the run and lacking the strenght and bulk to man the edge
- Brandon Lang, Troy - 6'4" 245#, again lacking the strength and bulk to man the edge
- Sergio Kindle, Texas - 6'4" 254# (played at 238# in 2008). Great speed and pursuit, but has trouble disengaging from blockers and playing the run.
- Jason Worilds, Virginia Tech - 6'2", 250#. A bit on the short side, and a bit light.
- Von Miller, Texas A&M - 6'2", 240#. Has put up huge sack numbers this year, but is more of a James Harrison/Dumervil type of guy. Not big enough or strong enough to set the edge for us.

There are 3 other guys frequently discussed who I am a bit unsure of:

- Eric Norwood from South Carolina is a bit of a question mark - on the smallish side at 6'1" 252#, but very strong, able to take on blockers, has a nose for the ball, and is pretty good against the run. I like him a lot, but see him more as an SILB for us than a 3-4 OLB.
- Brandon Graham from Michigan might be an option. He's also a bit on the short side at 6'2" 270#, and is most often compared to former Michigan prospect LaMarr Woodley.
- Jerry Hughes from TCU is also a bit short at 6'2" 257#. He's a former RB coverted to DE/OLB who led the nation is sacks last year. Doesn't have as much raw speed as Kindle, but has a terrific motor and is good in pursuit.

I could see all 3 of these guys getting consideration with one of our 2nd round picks if they last that long, but I don't see them as worthy of a 1st rounder at this point.

I do see the Pats looking at a number of guys who are considered more DEs than typical hybrid 3-4 OLBs, and who could rate a 1st round pick. These include 3 current juniors:

1. Jason Pierre-Paul, USF. Selvie's teammate, a JUCO transfer who has dominated this year. 6'6" 265# with an 82 inch wingspan and amazing athleticism. Somewhat raw, but an athletic freak, sort of a young Javon Kearse. Is devastating at blocking passing lanes with his long arms, and has relatively good coverage and ball skills. I'll start a separate thread on him. He may not come out in 2010 (he would probably go in the 20-40 range), but could be a top 10 pick in 2011 if he waits. He has the potential to be an incredible elephant in the Pats' system.

2. Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech. 6'4" 270# beast, somewhat reminiscent of Jared Allen or Shawne Merriman.

3. Everson Griffin, USC. 6'3" 270#+ but with tremendous speed and agility for his size, can probably play in space. Reminds me a bit of Terrell Suggs, or a slightly shorter McGinest. Has not played up to his athletic potential until recently, but seems to be emerging.

All 3 of these guys could wait to 2011, and all could go top 20 even if they declare in 2010. But one or more may fall to where we pick, and would be worth considering with our 1st round pick, or at least our highest 2nd rounder.

Ochmed would undoubtedly include Carlos Dunlap from Florida in this group. He's 6'6" 270-290# with amazing size/speed. However, he has been inconsistent, doesn't have a great motor, and doesn't appear to me to have the necessary agility to play in space for us, so I haven't included him on my list, but mention him in deference to Ochmed. He's considered a major boom or bust guy, top 10 physical ability, probably won't go that high due to lack of production but likely top 20 because of his upside.

 

[mayoclinic]

Walter Football's 3 round mock was updated today:

WalterFootball.com: 2010 NFL Mock Draft

They currently have the Pats taking:

26. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St.
33. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech
44. Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU
58. Mike Jonson, OG, Alabama

My preference would be:

26. Either Derrick Morgan DE/OLB Georgia Tech (#31 to Indy). 6'4" 270# beast with a terrific motor who can play the run as well as the pass and chase down runners. Incredible value here, reminiscent of Jared Allen/Shawne Merriman. Would be a beast at the Elephant. This mock does not include Jason Pierre-Paul from USF, who would also deserve consideration.
33. Everson Griffin, DE/OLB (34 to St. Louis). Another physical freak, 6'3" 270#+ with sub 4.70 speed and the ability to play in space. A bit reminiscent of Terrell Suggs. Get 2 top pass rushers with the size and athleticism to play in space and handle the edge and we would have a dominant defense. Move AD inside to SILB (if he isn't cut). Again, Jason Pierre-Paul would be my #1 guy for this role, but in this draft he's not coming out. I love Jonathan Dwyer, but getting bookend DE/OLBs of this caliber would be a coup too good to pass up, and we can get a back later.
44. Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho. 6'6" 330# Samoan mammoth who moves like a gazelle. I like Mike Johnson, but Iupati could be exceptional, and will probably go much higher. Resign Mankins, and our interior line will be amazing. I would also consider Junior OG/C Maurkice Pouncey from Florida (6'5" 318#) here, but in this draft he's not coming out till 2011.
58. Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno St. 5'11# 220# power back who leads the nation in rushing. Pat Hill prospect. I'd prefer Jonathan Dwyer, but Matthews would be a nice consolation prize. A 3-4 DE such as Corey Wootton (Northwestern), Lawrence Marsh (Florida), or Adrian Clayborn (Iowa) could also be an option here if they are available.

 

[Marqui]

A 3-4 DE such as Corey Wootton (Northwestern), Lawrence Marsh (Florida), or Adrian Clayborn (Iowa) could also be an option here if they are available.

I would actually take Greg Romeus and Jared Odrick over Marsh, Wooton, or Clayborn.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would actually take Greg Romeus and Jared Odrick over Marsh, Wooton, or Clayborn.

I can't see Greg Romeus as a 3-4 DE at all.