Week 5, Patriots at Broncos

[jmt57]

We have had some good back and forth discussion prior to the game each of the last few weeks, spiced with some good commentary from fans of the Pats opponents. Since this topic has grown each week I figure it's time to try it again. Besides, it's Thursday and about time to look ahead to the next game rather than back at the Ravens.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/276957-ravens-week-discussion.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/275234-week-three-falcons-patriots.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/271064-thoughts-jets.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/270627-pre-game-thoughts-buffalo.html

Bronco fans are welcome and encouraged to jump right in and offer your insight about the Denver team.

Here's a few links for those here that want to read more about the Broncos:

Official Team Site: Denver Broncos

Newspaper: Denver Post; Boulder Daily Camera; apparently the Rocky Mountain News went under.

Radio: KKFN 104.3 The Fan; KEPN espn 1600; KCKK 1510 Mile High Sports Radio

TV: KCNC cbs-ch4; KUSA nbc-ch9; KMGH abc-ch7; KDVR fox-ch31

Fan Sites: Broncos Forums; Broncos Freak; Bronco Talk; Orange Mane; Mile High Report; Mile High Salute; Broncos Gab

 

[jmt57]

RYObroncosfan's take on the game

From the Visiting Locker Room, by Denver fan RYObroncosfan

Guess I can't post in the general Pats forum until I get to 100 posts, which should be sooner or later, but for now I'll just post here.

Anyway, I always make an appearance on these boards when the pats play Denver, and aside from last year, it's usually a good match up.

So what's different this year compared to last?

Defense, Defense, Defense...No Shanahan, No Cutler and Defense.

The D is completely different...for one, it's led by a very competent coordinator in Mike Nolan, who switched things up to a 3-4. This means Elvis Dumervil is now an LB, and he's had incredible success thus far with 7 sacks on the season.

The addition of Brian Dawkins has been HUGE. He brings an intensity this D has not had, and he's a significant upgrade over either of last year's safeties.

Andre Goodman has been brought in to play corner opposite Champ, and he's been a huge upgrade over Dre Bly. Champ's back to his old ways, DJ Williams is still one of the league's better linebackers, and Robert Ayers (rookie out of Tennessee) has quietly been very effective.

This D is for real. It may not be the best in the league (though statistically right now it is), but it's certainly a top 10 defense.

Offensively, McDaniels is really doing a great job. You'd be surprised to hear that Orton is the league's 8th rated passer right now, with a a QB rating close to 100. All he's doing is managing the game and not screwing up...no INTs to this point (although sooner or later he'll throw one, it'll probably be this game), no lost fumbles...although he has had a problem picking up the blitz.

That's the one criticism I have of him so far...the Broncos O-Line is one of the top 5 in football (ranked #1 by Yahoo)...it's pretty much exactly the same as last year's, and they only gave up 3 sacks all of last year. Orton's just had trouble recognizing it, and once it's there he can't avoid it like Cutler did. Another O-Line fact: Ryan Clady set a new NFL record after the game yesterday: 20 consecutive games without allowing a sack. He's also only played in 20 career games

You'll catch a break with Buckhalter being hurt...doesn't look like he'll play, and he's been fantastic so far, averaging over 7 yards per carry. Knowshon has been great though, a really tough runner with great moves. If it's just him and Lamont Jordan though, I don't expect us to get the 150 yards a game we've been getting so far. Should still see at least 100 rushing yards though next week out of this offense.

Gaffney's been a very pleasant surprise thus far, and Stokely has been fantastic, although he's been injured the last couple of weeks. Marshall is getting more and more comfortable by the week, and I expect him to get more and more receptions each week. Eddie Royal's been VERY quiet this season, but as Marshall picks it up, I think Royal will too.

There's a lot of depth with Denver at WR, Orton's got plenty of options.

That's pretty much it...Broncos are playing very, very well right now, they're very confident, they're at home, and their defense has been superb.

If Orton can continue to avoid the mistakes, I see no reason for this game to be more than 7 points one way or the other.

I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Gwedd]

My main worry from a Denver standpoint, the one weakness I see is Orton. If he can manage the game, it will likely come down to who scores last. If he reverts to form and gets that "deer in the headlights look", then Denver will rack up it's first "L" of the season. I fully expect that to be the case.

 

[tsiguy96]

to expect the patriots to put up 30+ points on the broncos defense is silly. i really expect this to be a 17-10, 20-13 type game. dunno who wins, but neither team is gonna score alot, the broncos now have a LOT of talent on the team, more than people here are giving them credit for, and considering lack of depth at WR positon for the patriots and the depth we DO have at cornerback, thats a good match up for us. if broncos pressure tom all game like they have been all year, broncos win. if patriots can stop the pass rush, theyll win. i expect the broncos to run the ball, and a lot, as well as a lot of screens to moreno or marshall.

 

[mayoclinic]

Jmt57, thanks for starting this thread. I very much enjoyed all of the discussion with fans of other teams over the past few weeks.

Guess I can't post in the general Pats forum until I get to 100 posts, which should be sooner or later, but for now I'll just post here.

Anyway, I always make an appearance on these boards when the pats play Denver, and aside from last year, it's usually a good match up.

Welcome back, and thanks for the intelligent and well thought out post.

So what's different this year compared to last?

Defense, Defense, Defense...No Shanahan, No Cutler and Defense.

The D is completely different...for one, it's led by a very competent coordinator in Mike Nolan, who switched things up to a 3-4. This means Elvis Dumervil is now an LB, and he's had incredible success thus far with 7 sacks on the season.

The addition of Brian Dawkins has been HUGE. He brings an intensity this D has not had, and he's a significant upgrade over either of last year's safeties.

Andre Goodman has been brought in to play corner opposite Champ, and he's been a huge upgrade over Dre Bly. Champ's back to his old ways, DJ Williams is still one of the league's better linebackers, and Robert Ayers (rookie out of Tennessee) has quietly been very effective.

This D is for real. It may not be the best in the league (though statistically right now it is), but it's certainly a top 10 defense.

I think that's a very realistic and rational assessment. Your D has played fabulously, but I think a top 10 (possibly top 5) assessment is reasonable at this point given that it's still early and the competition hasn't been top notch.

Mike Nolan deserves a lot of credit. I hope he doesn't become Denver's **** LeBeau and serve as a thorn in our side for a decade. Great job. He's certainly exploited Dumervil's and the secondary's strengths. Brian Dawkins was always a class job, and he's clearly brought some much needed leadership to the Broncos defense.

Champ is Champ - he's burned us many times before, and has our respect, opponent or not. Your secondary and pass defense are very, very good. I know that your rush defense has have good numbers so far, but it's less clear to me that you aren't vulnerable against the run. I think you will see a fair amount of that next week. After Baltimore's stifling run defense, anything else should be easier.

Offensively, McDaniels is really doing a great job. You'd be surprised to hear that Orton is the league's 8th rated passer right now, with a a QB rating close to 100. All he's doing is managing the game and not screwing up...no INTs to this point (although sooner or later he'll throw one, it'll probably be this game), no lost fumbles...although he has had a problem picking up the blitz.

That's the one criticism I have of him so far...the Broncos O-Line is one of the top 5 in football (ranked #1 by Yahoo)...it's pretty much exactly the same as last year's, and they only gave up 3 sacks all of last year. Orton's just had trouble recognizing it, and once it's there he can't avoid it like Cutler did. Another O-Line fact: Ryan Clady set a new NFL record after the game yesterday: 20 consecutive games without allowing a sack. He's also only played in 20 career games

Lot of big Ryan Clady admirers on this board, me among them. I was torn between Mayo, Rodgers-Cromartie and Clady at the #10 pick in 2008. We obviously didn't go wrong in Mayo, but Clady has been a stud. I'm torn between him and Michael Roos as my 2 favorite OT's.

I'm not at all surprised by Orton's QB rating. He's obviously a bright kid who knows how to play within his capabilities and the system, and McDaniels clearly wanted a Cassel-type guy who wouldn't make mistakes and cost games - sort of the anti-Cutler gunslinger mentality. I thought the whole Cutler thing was ridiculous, and was mostly engineered by his agent as a way to get a big new contract; I was appalled how much the public and media bought into his sob story about feeling "dissed". You're much better off without him. My guess is you will win the division this year (SD has no defense and no running game, which is not a recipe for long term success), after 4 years of no playoffs under Shanahan and Cutler. Josh was always a class act for us, and I wish him success (especially against the Chargers, just not against us).

I think Cutler holding on to the ball is key. We should be bringing a lot of pressure and trying to get him to make mistakes.

You'll catch a break with Buckhalter being hurt...doesn't look like he'll play, and he's been fantastic so far, averaging over 7 yards per carry. Knowshon has been great though, a really tough runner with great moves. If it's just him and Lamont Jordan though, I don't expect us to get the 150 yards a game we've been getting so far. Should still see at least 100 rushing yards though next week out of this offense.

Gaffney's been a very pleasant surprise thus far, and Stokely has been fantastic, although he's been injured the last couple of weeks. Marshall is getting more and more comfortable by the week, and I expect him to get more and more receptions each week. Eddie Royal's been VERY quiet this season, but as Marshall picks it up, I think Royal will too.

There's a lot of depth with Denver at WR, Orton's got plenty of options.

That's pretty much it...Broncos are playing very, very well right now, they're very confident, they're at home, and their defense has been superb.

If Orton can continue to avoid the mistakes, I see no reason for this game to be more than 7 points one way or the other.

I'm looking forward to it.

I think it's going to be a game of who makes the least mistakes. If Orton continues to play mistake-free ball, doesn't give us any freebies, and we don't execute, the game will be close, as you predict. If we get ahead and can rattle Orton into some mistakes the game could become one-sided. You haven't been down by much so far this season, and I don't think you have the firepower to come back from 2 TDs or more down if we get a lead. The game could easily be low-scoring and close, but we could end up scoring 30 or more points if our defense puts some points on the board and we get a comfortable lead.

Defensively I see us focusing on shutting down your running game, containing Marshall (probably with McGowan or Meriweather helping out), and pressuring Orton. I'm hoping Derrick Burgess shows up this week, we could use him. Our secondary is very, very good and after Flacco and Matt Ryan I don't see Orton as a major threat. Unless we give up points to your defense (and our offense has already given up 14 points this year) I don't see you getting more than 17 points, and probably less. If you take away the 2 touchdowns our offense gave up, our defense is average 14 PPG. The Ravens are 2nd in scoring and 3rd in total offense, but our defense still only gave up 14 points, and stopped them at the end of each half. So to my mind it comes down to just how good your defense really is.

The Jets held us to 9 points, but that was without Welker, with a lot of pressure on Brady, and with terrible red zone execution. We had our opportunities. Otherwise we've been averaging 26 PPG (25 against Buffalo, 26 against Atlanta, 27 against Baltimore) which would put us in the top 10, right up with Indy. We're capable of much more. I think you have your work cut out holding us to less than 17 points, if we execute. We're still rusty on offense. How we do against your defense will be a good litmus test of whether the offense is coming around.

As you say, you've had a great year so far, and I look forward to a good game.

 

[Patspsycho]

I think we'll play a lot of 4-1-6 dime with McGowan motioning down as LB again. I think this will continue until Mayo returns or Seau signs on, for the next game.

 

[BroncoNation1984]

Jmt57, thanks for starting this thread. I very much enjoyed all of the discussion with fans of other teams over the past few weeks.



Welcome back, and thanks for the intelligent and well thought out post.



I think that's a very realistic and rational assessment. Your D has played fabulously, but I think a top 10 (possibly top 5) assessment is reasonable at this point given that it's still early and the competition hasn't been top notch.

Mike Nolan deserves a lot of credit. I hope he doesn't become Denver's **** LeBeau and serve as a thorn in our side for a decade. Great job. He's certainly exploited Dumervil's and the secondary's strengths. Brian Dawkins was always a class job, and he's clearly brought some much needed leadership to the Broncos defense.

Champ is Champ - he's burned us many times before, and has our respect, opponent or not. Your secondary and pass defense are very, very good. I know that your rush defense has have good numbers so far, but it's less clear to me that you aren't vulnerable against the run. I think you will see a fair amount of that next week. After Baltimore's stifling run defense, anything else should be easier.



Lot of big Ryan Clady admirers on this board, me among them. I was torn between Mayo, Rodgers-Cromartie and Clady at the #10 pick in 2008. We obviously didn't go wrong in Mayo, but Clady has been a stud. I'm torn between him and Michael Roos as my 2 favorite OT's.

I'm not at all surprised by Orton's QB rating. He's obviously a bright kid who knows how to play within his capabilities and the system, and McDaniels clearly wanted a Cassel-type guy who wouldn't make mistakes and cost games - sort of the anti-Cutler gunslinger mentality. I thought the whole Cutler thing was ridiculous, and was mostly engineered by his agent as a way to get a big new contract; I was appalled how much the public and media bought into his sob story about feeling "dissed". You're much better off without him. My guess is you will win the division this year (SD has no defense and no running game, which is not a recipe for long term success), after 4 years of no playoffs under Shanahan and Cutler. Josh was always a class act for us, and I wish him success (especially against the Chargers, just not against us).

I think Cutler holding on to the ball is key. We should be bringing a lot of pressure and trying to get him to make mistakes.



I think it's going to be a game of who makes the least mistakes. If Orton continues to play mistake-free ball, doesn't give us any freebies, and we don't execute, the game will be close, as you predict. If we get ahead and can rattle Orton into some mistakes the game could become one-sided. You haven't been down by much so far this season, and I don't think you have the firepower to come back from 2 TDs or more down if we get a lead. The game could easily be low-scoring and close, but we could end up scoring 30 or more points if our defense puts some points on the board and we get a comfortable lead.

Defensively I see us focusing on shutting down your running game, containing Marshall (probably with McGowan or Meriweather helping out), and pressuring Orton. I'm hoping Derrick Burgess shows up this week, we could use him. Our secondary is very, very good and after Flacco and Matt Ryan I don't see Orton as a major threat. Unless we give up points to your defense (and our offense has already given up 14 points this year) I don't see you getting more than 17 points, and probably less. If you take away the 2 touchdowns our offense gave up, our defense is average 14 PPG. The Ravens are 2nd in scoring and 3rd in total offense, but our defense still only gave up 14 points, and stopped them at the end of each half. So to my mind it comes down to just how good your defense really is.

The Jets held us to 9 points, but that was without Welker, with a lot of pressure on Brady, and with terrible red zone execution. We had our opportunities. Otherwise we've been averaging 26 PPG (25 against Buffalo, 26 against Atlanta, 27 against Baltimore) which would put us in the top 10, right up with Indy. We're capable of much more. I think you have your work cut out holding us to less than 17 points, if we execute. We're still rusty on offense. How we do against your defense will be a good litmus test of whether the offense is coming around.

As you say, you've had a great year so far, and I look forward to a good game.

Thing is, Denver would be much more dangerous offensively if drive killing penalties hadn't killed us.

Game 1: Cincy, a false start and subsequent holding penalty by the offense takes Denver from the 15 yard line back to the 29 where Orton gets sacked on 3rd down taking them out of FG range and the chance to ice the game (thus making the miracle moot).

Game 4: Dallas. First half, 10 offensive penalties on the o-line killed every drive we had. At one point it was 2nd and 29. Not a recipe for success.

Conversely, when Denver has avoided shooting itself in the foot on offense, they have moved the ball effectively. Like the Patriots, they are suffering this early season with Red Zone woes, but they are working on it and we are hoping to get it resolved.

If the forecast is snow, I dont expect either team to score more than 17 points. Despite the good start the Patriots are on, I do expect Denver to hold them in the teens. Dallas was the 3rd ranked scoring offense in the league until they came to Denver and Denver completely shut them down after the first quarter.

This should be a great game as it usually is with the Patriots. Some of my favorite non-divisional games have been against your team. The Divisional Playoff game ending your dynasty The 2003 4th quarter loss in Denver on a Brady come back, last years game sucked but thats the exception to the rivalry, not the rule.

 

[jmt57]

NFL Stats

Some statistics through the first four weeks of 2009:

Offense
Yards per game: Pats 376 (8th), Broncos 365 (9th)
Points per game: Pats 21.8 (14th), Broncos 19.8 (19th)
Yards per play: Broncos 5.8 (7th), Pats 5.2 (17th)
3rd Down: Pats 59%, 27/59 (7th); Broncos 49%, 18/49 (18th)
Time of Possession: Pats 35:41 (3rd); Broncos 30:36 (12th)
Turnover Ratio: Broncos +7 (1st); Pats +2 (9th)

Passing:
Yards: Pats 273.8 (5th), Broncos 217.0 (18th)
Percentage: Pats 62.1 (13th), Broncos 59.0 (21st)
QB Rating: Broncos 97.7 (9th), Pats 83.7 (19th)
20+ yard plays: Broncos 13 (9th), Pats 9 (19th)
40+ yard plays: Broncos 3 (6th), Pats 0 (26th)
Sacks Allowed: Pats 4 (5th), Broncos 6 (10th)
Broncos: 5 TD, 0 INT; Pats: 4 TD, 2 INT

Rushing:
Yards: Broncos 148.0 (4th), Pats 102.2 (17th)
Yards per Carry: Broncos 4.7 (8th), Pats 3.7 (22nd)

Kickoff Returns: Pats 23.0 (16th), Broncos 19.6 (30th)
Punt Returns: Broncos 7.8 (18th), Pats 6.8 (21st)


Defense
Yards Per Game: Broncos 239.8 (2nd), Pats 287.5 (7th)
Points per game: 6.5 (1st), Pats 17.8 (9th)
Yards per play: 4.0 (1st), Pats 5.4 (18th)
3rd down: Broncos 26% (2nd), 14/53; Pats 41% (23rd), 18/44

Passing:
Yards: Broncos 162.5 (3rd), Pats 192.2 (7th)
Percentage: tied with 59.8% (12th)
QB Rating: Broncos 56.0 (2nd), Pats 90.8 (21st)
20+ yard plays: Broncos 7 (4th), Pats 10 (12th)
40+ yard plays: tied with 1 (7th)
Sacks: Broncos 15 (2nd), Pats 8 (15th)
Broncos: 0 TD, 6 INT; Pats: 5 TD, 1 INT

Rushing:
Yards: Broncos 77.2 (5th), Pats 95.2 (11th)
Yards per Carry: 3.2 (6th), Pats 4.5 (21st)

Kickoffs:
Yards: Broncos 70.9 (3rd), Patriots 70.8 (4th)
Touchbacks: Broncos 9 (1st), 47.4% (2nd); Pats 5 (8th), 22.7% (11th)
Return Average: Broncos 22.6 (14th), Pats 27.4 (29th)

 

[jmt57]

Brady A Challenge For Broncos D'

Brady a challenge for Broncos D' by Vinnie Iyer of the Sporting News

Obviously, with his team 4-0 despite a rocky opening week, the student, Josh McDaniels, has learned well from the sensei, Bill Belichick. It will be interesting to see how well Belichick knows McDaniels' offensive tendencies, and what kind of defense he will call to throw them off.

So far, the mentee is doing the best with limited firepower in Denver. He's put an emphasis on protecting the ball, being methodical and using diverse personnel. He's given up the record explosiveness he had with Tom Brady in New England for more efficiency with Kyle Orton, or more what we saw with McDaniels calling the plays with Matt Cassel.

Belichick has the front seven to handle a Broncos running game still trying to find its footing. The more difficult matchup features his young secondary against Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, a young receiving combination in the style of older Patriots Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

The Pats' best bet will then be working to confuse Orton with varied coverage and blitz looks, looking to force some key mistakes.

Orton's counterpart, Tom Brady, is slowly getting back into his 2007 form. Although Champ Bailey will cover Moss well, Brady will work on spreading the ball over the field. Look for the backs, led by Kevin Faulk, to be busy in the passing game.

The Broncos' defense has been dominant against its four previous opponents, but no one has had the talent and depth as New England. Brady hasn't had the greatest success against Denver in the past, but that was when Mike Shanahan was coach. He's seen and beaten many 3-4 defenses, and Brady will be well prepared to deliver down the stretch.
Patriots 24, Broncos 17.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Josh gets a lot of credit for the team being 4-0 after trading away Cutler, but I think the way he's handled Marshall has been amazing. He didn't give in, he let Marshall make a fool of himself in practice (which I think turned a lot of the team against him), and then benched him.

Marshall pouted a bit but then responded in a positive way, and now he's back to making big plays while being a critical member of the team. And it served as a lesson to everyone else that no single player is above the team.

I liked Josh when he was in NE, though I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of his. He did a good job here, but he's really impressed me with the way things have turned around in Denver.

 

[mayoclinic]

Josh gets a lot of credit for the team being 4-0 after trading away Cutler, but I think the way he's handled Marshall has been amazing. He didn't give in, he let Marshall make a fool of himself in practice (which I think turned a lot of the team against him), and then benched him.

Marshall pouted a bit but then responded in a positive way, and now he's back to making big plays while being a critical member of the team. And it served as a lesson to everyone else that no single player is above the team.

I liked Josh when he was in NE, though I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of his. He did a good job here, but he's really impressed me with the way things have turned around in Denver.

What impresses me most about the job McDaniels is doing is that he is building a team that is mentally tough. He's shown a lot of toughness, he's accepted responsibility when things haven't worked out (even when there were extenuating circumstances), he's made it clear who's in charge, and he's gotten the team on the same page. My impression is that everyone who's there buys into his program at this point, which is amazing given where they were 6 months ago. He's gotten them back to sound, fundamental football with a smart QB who won't make dumb mistakes, a talented RB corps, and an aggressive defense.

Top to bottom they aren't in the same league talent wise as some of the top teams. But they don't have to be to be successful. The Pats won their first SB with a team very much like this Bronco's team. And he's building a foundation for the future. Compare that to teams like San Diego, the Ravens, and the Cowboys who have a lot of talent on their rosters but who aren't mentally tough and find ways to shoot themselves in the foot. It seems to me that it's harder to build that mental toughness and team unity than it is to add talent. The Pats, Steelers, Giants and Colts stand out to me as the mentally tough teams in the NFL, and not surprisingly, they've won 7 out of the last 8 Super Bowls between them.

It's fun to watch McDaniels build his team - kind of like rolling the clock back 10 years and watching BB. He's sort of like Matt Cassel was as TB's backup, studying the top guy's every move and mimicking him so that he could learn. I personally don't hate the Ponies the way some do - I vastly prefer them to the Chargers and Raiders in the AFC West - so I'm quite content to see them succeed, just not to the point of beating us.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Before you invite company over it's generally best to clear it with the guy who actually owns the place your inviting them to. In posting this sticky thread, Ian seems to have come up with a plan that includes inviting weekly visitors to gather the VLR rather than the main board, and those who relish engaging them to do so there as well...

Just sayin...

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/279694-welcome-denver-broncos-fans.html

 

[JSn]

I hope this thread goes like the other weeks without devolving like a few opposing fan posters did.

This game is going to be good. I think the rush game is going to be there for us, even w/o Taylor.

I also think with Denver missing their lead rusher (who could also catch), our run D is going to force them to go the air, where it will be tough for them to score if they only move in bursts of 4-6 yards.

The D will be aggressive as this secondary is obviously more athletic and making it tough to pass against.

I expect a good game, a LOT of chess-type moves and in the end...

 

[jmt57]

Elvis Dumervil

One of the keys to the game appears to be how well the Pats offensive line protects Tom Brady against the Denver pass rush - and specifically what their game plan is to contain Elvis Dumervil.

Matt Light talks about Elvis Dumervil in an interview with Christopher Price of WEEI

He’s a guy who has eight sacks and is playing really well now in that system. He’s a very active guy, one of those relentless pass rushers that just doesn’t quit. We’ve got a big test ahead of us. ... He’s not the tallest guy out there, but he’s got good leverage and he plays really strong. He’s got a good power move. I really don’t think size has much to do with it.

The Denver Post says Dumervil plans on treating Brady like every other QB while not-so-subtely spinning this week's most popular media story, that NFL referees are favoring Brady and the Patriots.

Baltimore Ravens defenders made plenty of noise after last Sunday's game against New England, claiming that the referees do too much to protect Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.

But Denver's top pass rusher isn't concerned.

Elvis Dumervil, who is tied for the NFL lead with eight sacks, said the fear of a roughing the passer penalty won't change the way he tries to pressure Brady. Sunday will be Dumervil's first game against Brady.

"I'm going to play the way I play regardless," Dumervil said. "I'm going to treat him like any other quarterback. You can't worry about that. If you worry about that, you'll be hesitant."

New England's first four opponents have been penalized 33 times for 265 yards, while the Broncos have been penalized 26 times for 200 yards, including 10 for 81 yards last week against Dallas.

Peter King of Sports Illustrated says Stopping Dumervil is no small task for Patriots

First, an illustration of Dumervil's Tazmanian Devil approach to rushing the passer. Dumervil, for the first time in his college or pro career, is playing outside linebacker because new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has switched to the 3-4 and 245-pound guys would get eaten alive against the run at end in the 3-4. But in passing downs, Dumervil moves to a hand-down defensive end in Nolan's 4-3.

In the Dallas-Denver game last week, on a passing down, Dumervil lined up to the outside of mountainous left tackle Flozell Adams. On game tape, the matchup looked a little like Muggsy Bogues against Yao Ming. Adams is eight inches taller and 95 pounds heavier than Dumervil. At the snap of the ball, Dumervil, rushing low, took a hard outside rush, and Adams flexed out his arms to try to push him outside. Like Elastic Man, Dumervil stopped with both feet planted and leaned back, then shot inside Adams and smothered Tony Romo in the pocket. It's a move you'd probably have to see to believe, but trust me, it wouldn't matter how big Adams was -- there's no way he was ever going to stop that rush.

Broncos' Dumervil has become money as big-time pass rusher by the Denver Post

Way back in the fourth round of the same draft, with the No. 126 overall pick, Dumervil was selected. The Broncos gave Dumervil a four-year deal worth $2 million. He has 34 sacks in 49 games.

Thus, Dumervil has nearly two more sacks in three fewer games for $52 million less than the pass rusher drafted 125 picks ahead of him.

"I think the biggest thing about Elvis is he plays the game with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder," Broncos defensive coordinator Mike Nolan said. "He is a little shorter and people bring it to his attention, including me, but he overcomes it. He's very competitive."

Pound per pound, inch per inch, the 5-foot-11, 248-pound Dumervil is arguably the NFL's best pass rusher. Stripping away subjective reasoning and getting more to the point of statistical production, Dumervil is the NFL's sixth-best active pass rusher — and climbing.

Dumervil in his career has .694 sacks per game, a clip that exceeds all but the highly compensated Shawne Merriman, Jared Allen, DeMarcus Ware, John Abraham and Dwight Freeney.

 

[Patspsycho]

Re: Elvis Dumervil

Jmt57, thanks for posting all those tidbits. Interesting reads.

 

[mayoclinic]

Before you invite company over it's generally best to clear it with the guy who actually owns the place your inviting them to. In posting this sticky thread, Ian seems to have come up with a plan that includes inviting weekly visitors to gather the VLR rather than the main board, and those who relish engaging them to do so there as well...

Just sayin...

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/279694-welcome-denver-broncos-fans.html

That didn't seem to be an issue the past 3 weeks, when Jets/Falcons/Ravens fans posted on threads created here to discuss the issues around the upcoming game. For the most part, opposing fans were curteous and their comments reasonable. I personally don't see any reason why they shouldn't be allowed to post (not start threads, but post) here as long as they remain reasonable non-trollish.

I think the management of the board should let us know clearly where these discussions to go. There is currently 3 places such discussion has gone. It's confusing.

 

[RYObroncosfan]

I think it's going to be a game of who makes the least mistakes. If Orton continues to play mistake-free ball, doesn't give us any freebies, and we don't execute, the game will be close, as you predict. If we get ahead and can rattle Orton into some mistakes the game could become one-sided. You haven't been down by much so far this season, and I don't think you have the firepower to come back from 2 TDs or more down if we get a lead. The game could easily be low-scoring and close, but we could end up scoring 30 or more points if our defense puts some points on the board and we get a comfortable lead.

I agree...I'm not curious at all to find out how we play when down by a couple scores, but it'll be interesting to see how it turns out when that situation finally does happen. The thing is, it all depends on the time left in the game. 4th quarter down by 14? It'll take some luck, to say the least. I don't trust leaving the game in Orton's hands, yet I do trust leaving the game in McDaniels' hands to call the right plays.

The more time left in the game, the better chance I think we have to come back (I suppose this is always the case, but I'm talking about from the standpoint of play calling and team morale).

Defensively I see us focusing on shutting down your running game, containing Marshall (probably with McGowan or Meriweather helping out), and pressuring Orton. I'm hoping Derrick Burgess shows up this week, we could use him. Our secondary is very, very good and after Flacco and Matt Ryan I don't see Orton as a major threat. Unless we give up points to your defense (and our offense has already given up 14 points this year) I don't see you getting more than 17 points, and probably less. If you take away the 2 touchdowns our offense gave up, our defense is average 14 PPG. The Ravens are 2nd in scoring and 3rd in total offense, but our defense still only gave up 14 points, and stopped them at the end of each half. So to my mind it comes down to just how good your defense really is.

This is what has me a little bit excited for the game...although shutting down our running game could be easier without Buckhalter...Moreno has shown some flashes of excellence. The running game will certainly be impacted, but I think it could still end up ok.

Last game, and really that last play was the first time all season Marshall was really a threat. The offense had been managing (not excelling, but managing) without him up until that point. He'd been returning from an injury, not really knowing the playbook, and not really caught up in practice. He practiced a LOT last week, some analyst there said they hadn't seen a WR practice so hard since Michael Irvin. My point? The fact that Marshall has shown he can have a big impact on the game, and will be a focus means that Orton is more likely to find Stokely and Gaffner open more often. Not only that, but Eddie Royal could FINALLY be making an impact.

What's gone unnoticed is how Royal's struggles are directly related to Marshall's impact. Gaffney and Stokely have been the primary receivers because Eddie Royal is easily shut down with the extra attention. Now that the attention is gone, his game could be opened up.

That, and the fact that the offense seems to be grasping the playbook and running the offense better and better each week leads me to believe that we have the potential to score more than 17 points of offense. Do I think we will? I don't know. What did I say in the predict the score thread? 20-17 Pats in OT? I think it'll be something like that. Royal is the X-factor this week in my opinion. If he's open, you'll notice.

The Jets held us to 9 points, but that was without Welker, with a lot of pressure on Brady, and with terrible red zone execution. We had our opportunities. Otherwise we've been averaging 26 PPG (25 against Buffalo, 26 against Atlanta, 27 against Baltimore) which would put us in the top 10, right up with Indy. We're capable of much more. I think you have your work cut out holding us to less than 17 points, if we execute. We're still rusty on offense. How we do against your defense will be a good litmus test of whether the offense is coming around.

As you say, you've had a great year so far, and I look forward to a good game.

I understand, but again, Buffalo was 2 late scores, and Atlanta and Baltimore (don't let the 'Baltimore' throw you off) aren't top 10 defenses. Baltimore is still above average, but not by that much. They're aging, they lost a huge player in Bart Scott, and they lost their defensive-minded coach).
Again, I still think you'll get 20 or more points, but I don't think (and I sure hope I'm not wrong) you'll get more than 30 points, unless you get 7 or more through your defense.

The fact that it's in Denver and the weather could suck plays in our favor, probably as much as 3-5 points...in the end, I'm just really looking for a close game. At least then, a) we'll get respect from those who still refuse to give any b) I'll be more confident in my team, knowing we can compete with pretty much anyone and c) so it's not like last year

 

[jmt57]

Brady won't get rattled; Broncos' defense must be solid

Analysis: Brady won't get rattled - defense must be solid by the Denver Post

A Denver writer surmises that the Broncos can't count on Brady making the same mistakes Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn and Tony Romo have. Brady states the obvious as he notes that throwing at Champ Bailey is not a smart move.

First Dallas offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, who did not get the Broncos job when Josh McDaniels did, decided the league's No. 1 rushing team should run the ball only seven times in the second half — just four times on first down — despite the fact the Cowboys had the lead for most of that half.

Also Romo, in the last two plays the Cowboys ran from scrimmage, decided it would be wise to challenge Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey on back-to-back plays from the Broncos' 2-yard line with the game on the line.

Bailey swatted away both passes, intended for Sam Hurd, while Garrett had also elected to keep the Cowboys' best receiver — tight end Jason Witten — in to block on the plays.

More on Champ Bailey: Bailey relishes increase in passes coming his way

Bailey now faces his biggest test yet in Randy Moss.

Last year, Bailey and the Broncos had their season derailed at New England. The team was demolished in front of a national audience, picked apart by then offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' play calling in a 41-7 loss.

Bailey shut down Moss until injuring a groin that would keep him out for two months. On the sideline, he watched Moss reach the end zone twice.

Bailey also goes on to criticize those who accuse Moss of dogging it in Oakland, asking 'did he have a quarterback' with the Raiders. Teammate Brian Dawkins says he doesn't understand why quarterbacks Carson Palmer and Tony Romo threw the ball in Bailey's direction. The Moss - Bailey matchup should be an intriguing subplot to Sunday's game.

There's also this on the turnaround of the Denver defense:

This season, the defense has the nastiness that Bailey has been craving. A once-maligned defense has morphed into a reliable unit, allowing a league-low 26 points through the first month of the season.

It all started with McDaniels, who overhauled the defense soon after coming on board from the Patriots. He brought in Mike Nolan to run the defense, then revamped the secondary. He provided Bailey help on the other side by signing cornerback Andre' Goodman, while adding experience at safety with Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill.

 

[basslicker]

Josh gets a lot of credit for the team being 4-0 after trading away Cutler, but I think the way he's handled Marshall has been amazing. He didn't give in, he let Marshall make a fool of himself in practice (which I think turned a lot of the team against him), and then benched him.

Marshall pouted a bit but then responded in a positive way, and now he's back to making big plays while being a critical member of the team. And it served as a lesson to everyone else that no single player is above the team.

I liked Josh when he was in NE, though I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of his. He did a good job here, but he's really impressed me with the way things have turned around in Denver.

I agree with you. But its Denver's time to enter the L column. It'll be a close game. I have a good feeling about this year. When the Pats won their Superbowls, they didn't blow many people out. They won and lost close games. (for the most part) That way people won't be seeing them coming.

Also, first time post from Canada. Go Pats!

 

[convertedpatsfan]

What impresses me most about the job McDaniels is doing is that he is building a team that is mentally tough. He's shown a lot of toughness, he's accepted responsibility when things haven't worked out (even when there were extenuating circumstances), he's made it clear who's in charge, and he's gotten the team on the same page. My impression is that everyone who's there buys into his program at this point, which is amazing given where they were 6 months ago. He's gotten them back to sound, fundamental football with a smart QB who won't make dumb mistakes, a talented RB corps, and an aggressive defense.

Top to bottom they aren't in the same league talent wise as some of the top teams. But they don't have to be to be successful. The Pats won their first SB with a team very much like this Bronco's team. And he's building a foundation for the future. Compare that to teams like San Diego, the Ravens, and the Cowboys who have a lot of talent on their rosters but who aren't mentally tough and find ways to shoot themselves in the foot. It seems to me that it's harder to build that mental toughness and team unity than it is to add talent. The Pats, Steelers, Giants and Colts stand out to me as the mentally tough teams in the NFL, and not surprisingly, they've won 7 out of the last 8 Super Bowls between them.

It's fun to watch McDaniels build his team - kind of like rolling the clock back 10 years and watching BB. He's sort of like Matt Cassel was as TB's backup, studying the top guy's every move and mimicking him so that he could learn. I personally don't hate the Ponies the way some do - I vastly prefer them to the Chargers and Raiders in the AFC West - so I'm quite content to see them succeed, just not to the point of beating us.

Agreed. And I think a big part of that mental toughness involved getting rid of Cutler. He's got a lot of talent, but a kid who cries that much over a potential trade rumour was never going to be the poster boy for a mentally-tough team. Orton's nowhere near Cutler in talent, but he's a much better fit for what they're doing and I get the feeling he's respected by his teammates.

And you're right, this team does remind me of the earlier Pats teams, which is why I'm taking this week's game much more seriously than I did when the schedule first came out.