The Big Patriots-Ravens Nuggetpalooza!

[jmt57]

The Big Patriots-Ravens Nuggetpalooza! by Gary Marbry of weei.com

A lot of interesting facts and information in this column regarding the Pats and Ravens for those that enjoy stats, trends and tendencies.

The Ravens come in with the most efficient first down offense in football so far, having picked up 4 or more yards 62% of the time on first down. By contrast, the Patriots have managed 4+ yards just 48% of the time, close to the NFL average of 47%. Both teams have been good at stopping their opponents on first downs as the Ravens have allowed 4+ yards 41% of the time (6th) and the Pats 43% (tied for 8th). Concern? The Falcons gashed NE for 4 or more yards on first down 57% of the time last week (12 out of 21).

Success on 3rd down is vital to teams ability to maintain long drives and the Pats are no exception. They have gotten into 3rd and short (1 to 3 yards to go) 18 times (most in the league) and converted 13 of them (72%; 4th). Baltimore has taken a different route to 3rd down success, converting a league best 48% (11 of 23) on 3rd and long (6 or more yards to go).

Another 3rd down note: On defense, NE has allowed just 4 conversions in 13 tries (31%) on 3rd and 5 or less to go, the lowest percentage in the NFL so far. Quite an improvement after allowing 62% (27 for 44) in that situation over the final five games of last season.

An NFL-high 50.9% of the Ravens pass plays have come against a blitz this season and they’ve averaged 7.79 yards per pass play against those blitzes (7th). On pass plays where there is no blitz, they’ve averaged 7.13 yards per pass play (8th). Now that we know THAT, look at the Pats yards allowed per pass play:

When NE blitzes: 4.33 (6th)
When NE does not blitz: 7.50 (28th)

So far, the Patriots have blitzed on 33% of opponent pass plays. Note to the sticklers out there: I use the term “pass plays” rather than “pass attempts” because “pass plays” include sacks.

Only 18% of the Pats’ passing yardage this season has come on pass plays that gained 20 or more yards, the lowest percentage in the NFL. Meanwhile, 57% of the Ravens passing yardage allowed has come on pass plays resulting in a gain of 20+ yards, the highest percentage in the NFL. Something’s gotta give!

 

[ALP]

the ravens thrive on the big play every so often with a strong rushing atk

i believe we can stop the run, and were masters of taking away the big play....

so in order for the the BAL offense to win this game, theyll have to do it in a way they havnt yet...

that is by long, and tedious drives, where each play gains minimal yardage, and without an effective running game...

if flacco can manage the game for a whole 4 quarters itll be tough for us, the prob for BAL is, he hasnt had to

we win this b/c we slow BAL running game, and b/c they dont get their trademark long pass plays (going back to last year's BAL offense as well here) and b/c their defense cant play the pass that well

and b/c i predict galloway and brady have finally figured things out

 

[RobertWeathers]

the ravens thrive on the big play every so often with a strong rushing atk

i believe we can stop the run, and were masters of taking away the big play....

so in order for the the BAL offense to win this game, theyll have to do it in a way they havnt yet...

that is by long, and tedious drives, where each play gains minimal yardage, and without an effective running game...

if flacco can manage the game for a whole 4 quarters itll be tough for us, the prob for BAL is, he hasnt had to

we win this b/c we slow BAL running game, and b/c they dont get their trademark long pass plays (going back to last year's BAL offense as well here) and b/c their defense cant play the pass that well

and b/c i predict galloway and brady have finally figured things out

I like your thinking! Hard to argue it with the only exception that the NE secondary has yet to record an INT and is still letting up a bunch of yards per pass play & attempt. But as you mention, but if the BAL running attack can be contained with 4-5 inthe box, that will help the secondary contain the BAL passing game.

 

[JSn]

and b/c i predict galloway and brady have finally figured things out

The hugeness of this factor can't be ignored. Given the Toucan's vulnerability at cornerback, and given that they already know Moss is a threat, one decent, long completion to Galloway will cause a lot of uncertainty in coverage. Add in Watson and Baker (the only guys to CATCH TD's this year) occasionally releasing off their blocks and it could be a loooong day for their secondary.

I think Bill has got an ingenious plan in store for the Ravens.

I mean, they practiced for a big game today in sweat-pants and shoulder-pads... I'm pretty sure that's a reward of some sort.

 

[The_Man]

the ravens thrive on the big play every so often with a strong rushing atk

i believe we can stop the run, and were masters of taking away the big play....

so in order for the the BAL offense to win this game, theyll have to do it in a way they havnt yet...

that is by long, and tedious drives, where each play gains minimal yardage, and without an effective running game...

if flacco can manage the game for a whole 4 quarters itll be tough for us, the prob for BAL is, he hasnt had to

we win this b/c we slow BAL running game, and b/c they dont get their trademark long pass plays (going back to last year's BAL offense as well here) and b/c their defense cant play the pass that well

and b/c i predict galloway and brady have finally figured things out

I have to tell you that your depiction of Baltimore's offense this year isn't very accurate. They've actually passed a little more than they've run (104 to 101).

Last week they had drives of 16 plays (82 yards, including 9 passes), 12 plays (68 yards, 8 passes), and 8 (80 yards, 7 passes). Vs. SD it was drives of 11 plays for 78 yards (5 passes) and 9 plays for 68 yards (4 passes). Vs. KC, it was 13 plays for 70 yards (8 passes) 9 for 76 (5 passes), and 11 for 64 (4 passes).

This is a much different Ravens team than you've seen in the past. They have great run-pass balance on offense. On defense, they're playing a lot of 4-3 now, and are blitzing less than ever before. Part of that is they don't trust the CBs to hold up, and part of is they have so much confidence in their offense that they don't want to gamble and give up easy points.

I'm looking for a game where the Pats pass 50+ times and are successful in moving the ball between the 20s, with their short passing game taking the place of a running game. The Ravens will hang back in coverage and give up the short stuff, then clamp down in the red zone and limit the Pats to FGs. On offense, I look for the Ravens to pass first, especially vs. the Pats base D, then go to the running game if/when NE subs in a nickel package.

This game is not going to look like the Pats-Jets game in any fashion. Just my prediction!

 

[satz]

I think Watson is going to be a key on this one. They have LB who can cover baker . But do not really have anyone who can cover watson other than maybe reed but with Moss and their shaky secondary they will hold him.

watson if he gets into pattern up the seam is going to stress their defence.especially if he runs on the other side of Moss.

satz

 

[H8R]

The hugeness of this factor can't be ignored. Given the Toucan's vulnerability at cornerback, and given that they already know Moss is a threat, one decent, long completion to Galloway will cause a lot of uncertainty in coverage. Add in Watson and Baker (the only guys to CATCH TD's this year) occasionally releasing off their blocks and it could be a loooong day for their secondary.

I think Bill has got an ingenious plan in store for the Ravens.

I mean, they practiced for a big game today in sweat-pants and shoulder-pads... I'm pretty sure that's a reward of some sort.

You're taking our secondary as garbage and it's not, it was just suspect in one game in the second week of the season 100 degree heat, away from home. If promise you BB does not think our secondary is garbage. he saw the tape, most of those long passes that were completed were from two things, 1. Rivers throws a superb deep ball, he was magical that day 2. Our SS/FS were playing up in the box in fear of Sproles breaking another big one (he had one early) leaving the corners all alone. Bank on passing all over our corners and Mr. Reed may just take one to the house, and Landry is a pretty serious ball hawk too..

 

[SoCalPatsfan90]

You're taking our secondary as garbage and it's not, it was just suspect in one game in the second week of the season 100 degree heat, away from home. If promise you BB does not think our secondary is garbage. he saw the tape, most of those long passes that were completed were from two things, 1. Rivers throws a superb deep ball, he was magical that day 2. Our SS/FS were playing up in the box in fear of Sproles breaking another big one (he had one early) leaving the corners all alone. Bank on passing all over our corners and Mr. Reed may just take one to the house, and Landry is a pretty serious ball hawk too..

Doesn't help that Reed misread some coverages and left his CB's all alone against taller bigger receivers either. There were several examples of him guess where Rivers was going, only to be wrong, and see long pass plays due to it.

Not bad that he's trying to jump routes, but just pointing out he's fallible as well, and can be or cause others to be burned.

 

[H8R]

Doesn't help that Reed misread some coverages and left his CB's all alone against taller bigger receivers either. There were several examples of him guess where Rivers was going, only to be wrong, and see long pass plays due to it.

Not bad that he's trying to jump routes, but just pointing out he's fallible as well, and can be or cause others to be burned.

Boy, if they didn't show that on NFL network you'd have no idea. : ) The problem was communication, not Ed doing something wrong. Either way though, no player is perfect and Ed is not immune like you said.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Boy, if they didn't show that on NFL network you'd have no idea. : ) The problem was communication, not Ed doing something wrong. Either way though, no player is perfect and Ed is not immune like you said.

I suppose Ed told you that over beers the other night

 

[ALP]

I have to tell you that your depiction of Baltimore's offense this year isn't very accurate. They've actually passed a little more than they've run (104 to 101).

Last week they had drives of 16 plays (82 yards, including 9 passes), 12 plays (68 yards, 8 passes), and 8 (80 yards, 7 passes). Vs. SD it was drives of 11 plays for 78 yards (5 passes) and 9 plays for 68 yards (4 passes). Vs. KC, it was 13 plays for 70 yards (8 passes) 9 for 76 (5 passes), and 11 for 64 (4 passes).

This is a much different Ravens team than you've seen in the past. They have great run-pass balance on offense. On defense, they're playing a lot of 4-3 now, and are blitzing less than ever before. Part of that is they don't trust the CBs to hold up, and part of is they have so much confidence in their offense that they don't want to gamble and give up easy points.

I'm looking for a game where the Pats pass 50+ times and are successful in moving the ball between the 20s, with their short passing game taking the place of a running game. The Ravens will hang back in coverage and give up the short stuff, then clamp down in the red zone and limit the Pats to FGs. On offense, I look for the Ravens to pass first, especially vs. the Pats base D, then go to the running game if/when NE subs in a nickel package.

This game is not going to look like the Pats-Jets game in any fashion. Just my prediction!

im not talking about balance, i knew BAL has that, im talking about the passing game of the team specifically...

BAL passes to 1. get a 1st down on usually 3rd and long or 2. for the big gain, or big pass play

if we take away the big pass play, which is one of our forte's, than the ravens will have to look for short to med pass plays, which is not usually their aim when passing the ball....

 

[The_Man]

im not talking about balance, i knew BAL has that, im talking about the passing game of the team specifically...

BAL passes to 1. get a 1st down on usually 3rd and long or 2. for the big gain, or big pass play

if we take away the big pass play, which is one of our forte's, than the ravens will have to look for short to med pass plays, which is not usually their aim when passing the ball....

Flacco has passed 42 times on first down so far this year, 31 times on second, and 31 on third.

Last week, he threw 18 times on first down, but only 8 times on third down. Flacco throws an unbelievable ball on the horizontal routes - it's out of his hand on-time and it arrives in a big hurry - and the Ravens have been incredibly effective moving the ball on first down this way. His first down QB rating is 126.7.

Belichick knows this kind of stuff, and I'm guessing he won't just sit there in his base run D on first down and let Flacco go to town like most ordinary NFL defensive coaches would. I'll be very interested to see what he comes up with and won't be at all surprised if the Pats come out with some nickel packages on first down.

If that happens, the Ravens will have to establish the run first -- that's what they did all last year, but they've been a pass first-team to date this season.