Fourth-and-1 from the Pats’ 24-yard line

[TruthSeeker]

I think it's pretty damn far from a no-brainer. Up 6 inside your own 30, the risk is huge. Nothing in life with high risk is a "no-brainer"

Statistics show that the percentage move is going for it in any 4th and 1 situation (except when situational play becomes important near the very end of the game) i.e. your team will win more the more you go for it. That being said, 99% of the time, teams punt in that situation.

To me, the crazy call was made by Atlanta when they punted on a 4th and 5 (I think) with 7 minutes to go in the game after having already proved that they couldn't stop the Patriots running game. I went crazy over the call - and it was in the Patriots favor!

 

[tobias funke]

Only to people who can't see the forest through the trees. This is what tough, aggressive football teams that are hellbent on seizing victory should do. If the offense failed in that situation, then yeah, it falls to the defense to step up and make a critical play, but still the situation called for a critical play; whoever made it would take a step towards winning the game.

Shying away from asking your team to make critical plays is how you end up a mediocre team saying "this game just got away from us at some point" in your post game presser on your way to a 6-10 record, in my opinion.

Just stop.

Your argument is essentially "only mediocre teams dont go for it on 4th and inches from their own 25 with a 6 point lead in the 3rd quarter".

Hint: you should count the number of good teams in history, then count the number of times a team has gone for it in that situation. I have a feeling the numbers won't be as close as you're suggesting.

 

[weswelker#83]

I just watched the play again on my Dvr , this is what the Tv journalists said about BB call to go for it:


Journalist 1:
"I don't agree with this call, at all "

Journalist 2 :
"I don't either."


Journalist 1:
"What an opportunity for the Falcons !"

 

[tobias funke]

Please don't get me wrong, I love the call just like everyone else does, especially because it worked.

But what if the handoff doesn't go smoothly, or if Sammy got stopped for a loss?

I'm sure the monday morning quarterbacks here would still think it was the greatest thing since sliced bread, right?

 

[TruthSeeker]

Realistically, that is the kind of call you'll only see when you're playing Madden with your buddies.

There's no way to argue that one. If they don't make the yard (very possible), it's basically guaranteed they give up 3 points, maybe even 7 and the lead in what was at that point a very close game.

The fact that Bill made the call and the offense got the yard made it a great play and a big turning point in the game, but it very easily could have gone the other way and led to disaster. Let's not kid ourselves.

All that being said, I got chills when we got it and knew we'd win the game after that. Magical stuff.

The time is going to come - I don't know when - when the flavor of the day changes in the NFL and teams start doing the things that maximize victory such as always going for it on 4th and short. Don't kid yourself that not making a 4th and short is giving away the game - statistics prove otherwise. Not going for it reduces the chances of victory.

When everyone is going for it on 4th down - because it's the right strategy to use - then the few that are still punting the ball will be shown for the cowards they are. This punting is worse than the "prevent defense".

 

[weswelker#83]

But what if the handoff doesn't go smoothly, or if Sammy got stopped for a loss?

In this business , there is no "If".

Great Players always deliver and we just witnessed a great moment of Pats football.

 

[tobias funke]

The time is going to come - I don't know when - when the flavor of the day changes in the NFL and teams start doing the things that maximize victory such as always going for it on 4th and short. Don't kid yourself that not making a 4th and short is giving away the game - statistics prove otherwise. Not going for it reduces the chances of victory.

When everyone is going for it on 4th down - because it's the right strategy to use - then the few that are still punting the ball will be shown for the cowards they are. This punting is worse than the "prevent defense".

This isn't anything new, bud. Even Easterbrook has been harping on this strategy since even before the 2007 'eff-you' season.

It doesn't change the fact that there is a huge difference between the 4th downs Belichick generally tries to go for (99.9% of the time on the opponents' side of the field or at least very close), and doing it on your own 25 in the 3rd quarter trying to maintain a slim lead in what's been a close game.

Honestly I'd be surprised to know of another time Belichick tried it in his own career, and I'd be surprised if he tries it again all season. It's possible, but please don't pretend like this is something you're going to see storming around the league like the wildcat. LOL

 

[tobias funke]

In this business , there is no "If".

Great Players always deliver and we just witnessed a great moment of Pats football.

I don't want to tell you that you sound like a homer but you really sound like a homer.

There's no "if", huh?

What "if" the Patriots had converted the 4th and 13 in the Super Bowl?

Then it would have been the greatest call in the history of sports, right?

I didn't see many people take that position after the game...

 

[fair catch fryar]

BB has nads the size of Massachusetts! He said basically, I trust my team, and they responded. Between BB, and Brady getting fired up, the team responded. Both men are absolutely GREAT leaders! When I saw Brady fired up on the sideline, I said to my wife "the Pats have this game in the bad now". I really felt that.

Also, if you recall, in the Atlanta series before that, the Falcons punted from the Patriots 39 on fourth down. Great coaches are not afraid to trust their men.

Isn't Massachusetts the 4th 0r 5th smallest state? Anyways, he's got kahoneys and of course all the confidence in his Offense to do that.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Just stop.

Don't be rude... it's a message board meant for open debate. I'm not attacking a single point you've made. In fact I agree that, had the call failed and the defense made the stop, people would be furious over the decision. I wouldn't be one of them.

Your argument is essentially "only mediocre teams dont go for it on 4th and inches from their own 25 with a 6 point lead in the 3rd quarter".

My argument is close to that. Mediocre teams would do things that give the other team the opportunity to get back into the game. Mediocre teams don't seize on crucial opportunities to take control of the game. The best way for the Patriots to stop the Falcons from scoring in that situation was to keep their drive going - punting gives the Falcons the ball on their ~30 down by only a single score... the game's wide open for the taking at that point; we fully agree on this, I believe

Hint: you should count the number of good teams in history, then count the number of times a team has gone for it in that situation. I have a feeling the numbers won't be as close as you're suggesting.

There have been studies done that statistically show that punting on 4th and short is bad for winning football games. Those stats are skewed towards the maroon zone, however, the findings are clear.

Bottom line: avoiding punts added an average of one point to a team's per-game scoring, without adding any points to its opponents' average scoring. Teams avoiding punting became 5 percent more likely to win -- statistically significant owing to the thousands of tries. Doesn't sound like much? One more point scored per game represents the difference between the Bengals and the Patriots of the 2006 season. Last season, one additional victory would have put the Packers, Panthers or Rams into the playoffs. A 5 percent improvement in victory likelihood translates into one additional victory per 20 games, or just shy of one extra win per NFL season. I think any NFL owner would gladly pay millions of dollars for one additional win per season.

SOURCE: TMQ: Punting the punt - ESPN Page 2

 

[Patspsycho]

I think it was a no brainer. It is only your human emotions that make it otherwise. There's a whole body of statistical evidence to support what BB did.

I understand it's a higher risk than punting, but the reward is far greater also. IMO the reward outweighs the risk.

Edit: Best part of the article:

Big thumbs up for this.

I have kept saying (until I'm blue in the face) that it was not a hazardous guess.. it was based on a few factors that BB had going for him, and he had reduced the gambling to a minimum, as he always tries to do.

 

[tobias funke]

There have been studies done that statistically show that punting on 4th and short is bad for winning football games. Those stats are skewed towards the maroon zone, however, the findings are clear.

You've repeated this multiple times now.

It's not a response to my point and you know it. You can't ignore the fact that almost no one has ever done it before, and almost no one will ever do it again, especially expecting similar results.

If it was, you'd see teams (or at least the ones run by Belichick) going for it in that situation much more often.

Let's be serious here: if you're not going to concede that going for it in between the 40s is a much different scenario than doing it in the 3rd quarter well inside the other team's field goal range (and against an offense that can move the ball), then there is no reason to continue this discussion. I don't like to lay down absolutes, but anyone suggesting that this was 'the right call' or 'definitely something I thought we would do' is letting the benefit of hindsight cloud their judgment.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

BB or no BB I thought the call was ******ed

It would have given Atlanta at least an easy FG and changed the game dramatically

I don't want to see this again,A move like that is as risky as having Lung Cancer and still smoking 2 packs a day.

Some of you would have been hypocrites if it didn't work and said BB is on drugs for doing it - It was stupid IMO whether they made it or not,More dumb than gutsy IMO

BB looked brilliant when it worked...If he didn't we would hear synchronized whining of 'WTF' throughout Patriot Nation

 

[emoney_33]

Statistics show that the percentage move is going for it in any 4th and 1 situation (except when situational play becomes important near the very end of the game) i.e. your team will win more the more you go for it. That being said, 99% of the time, teams punt in that situation.

To me, the crazy call was made by Atlanta when they punted on a 4th and 5 (I think) with 7 minutes to go in the game after having already proved that they couldn't stop the Patriots running game. I went crazy over the call - and it was in the Patriots favor!

I understand the general benefit of going for it and 4th and the +EV you get from going for it on just about every 4th down. The percentages and statistics can change drastically from team to team, game to game, play to play.

It's similar to a poker play, you can't make a decision only on the general +EV odds. There is much more to determining the "correct" play, than that. The overall odds that your opponent has a certain hand go out the window (more or less) when you KNOW your opponent or have more specific information (tells etc...) in that moment. That dictates different strategical plays vs. what the general odds of success would dictate.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

It's not a response to my point and you know it. You can't ignore the fact that almost no one has ever done it before, and almost no one will ever do it again, especially expecting similar results.

I thought a statistical study showing that being aggressive on 4th and short leads to more victories per season was applicable to your request that I do the seemingly impossible and figure out how many "good" teams have had 4th and <1 with a few minutes left in the 3rd quarter against a team that has similar offensive capabilities to the Atlanta Falcons. If it doesn't apply to your thoughts, it doesn't apply. That's fine. It is the basis from where I'm coming from in making my arguments about mediocre teams being the ones who would be more likely to not take advantage of the knowledge that being aggressive on 4th down leads to greater statistical success.

If it was, you'd see teams (or at least the ones run by Belichick) going for it in that situation much more often.

I feel that Belichick has a pretty good record of being aggressive going for 4th downs in general.
Stats from: NFL.com
2009: They're 3 / 6 going for it this year.
2008: 17/22 with 3 teams having more attempts, but worse conversion %'s (admittedly, they were 3 bad teams).
2007 they were #6 in tries on 4th down and #4 in success %.

I am only speaking in general terms about this because I don't think it's likely to find a similar situation, taking everything that went into the decision to try into account. Each 4th down try is unique, so it's almost impossible to focus on specifics and so I instead look at tendencies.

Let's be serious here: if you're not going to concede that going for it in between the 40s is a much different scenario than doing it in the 3rd quarter well inside the other team's field goal range (and against an offense that can move the ball), then there is no reason to continue this discussion. I don't like to lay down absolutes, but anyone suggesting that this was 'the right call' or 'definitely something I thought we would do' is letting the benefit of hindsight cloud their judgment.

I'll definitely agree that in this particular situation, going for the 4th down was about as aggressive as you can get. A much tougher pill to swallow if you fail than if you were on the other team's 40 and missed; I agree totally. I never meant to insinuate at all that this wasn't a tougher call than it would've been further up the field (like the 4th and 3 they converted in the same drive).

I said "please go for it" out loud while watching this unfold and, while nervous, was eventually very happy to see them pull it off and then go down the field to make it a 2 score game. If they had failed, I would still argue on behalf of this being a good call to make because of everything else I've written here. 4th and <1? Stats say you should most often be lining up for the try... I've already gone into the non-statistical dominate your opponent type aspects in previous posts. I like to see the Patriots be aggressive, so I'd be a fool if I only liked to see them be aggressive when it helped and didn't bite them. I feel being aggressive is a good way to win ballgames.

Thanks for the back and forth.



Here's another interesting looking statistical piece about 4th down tries that I'm looking forward to reading: 4th down study.

 

[jgpatriot]

I was at the game and I was thinking they were going to try the ol' "Maybe We can draw them offsides" play. Honestly, I think that could be what the Falcons were thinking so they were hesitant before the snap.

Still........ I personally would never go for it in that situation.

 

[JSn]

I think BB did this for the offense in GAME #3, knowing it would have the desired effect regardless of the outcome.

If they make it, their confidence is boosted. If they don't, it's on the defense and it forces the O to either fold like a cheap suit or nut up for not being able to get less than one yard.

Obviously, you hope they make it, but I think Bill was ready for either outcome.

As it stands, they converted on 4th down 3/3 = 100%. That's a dramatic improvement over last week.

 

[olschool]

I gotta admit it's pretty funny the way some people are suggesting this was the only call to make.

When is the last time Belichick (or any other coach) went for it on 4th down behind their own 40 with a lead?

The only reason it was 'the right call' is because Belichick made it the right call.

Remember years ago ; In the Denver at Patriots game that Shannon Sharpe was on the sidelines dialing 911 ?
To start the game, Parcells went for it on 4th and 1 at the 25, and ended up with giving Elway a gift. He immediately had a touchdown, and cruised to a big win.

Parcells wrong call was a good call yesterday. BB is better, and this team is better. No doubt about it.

Parcells did it to make a smashmouth statement, to open the game.

BB did it to get a first down, calculating that Atlanta's defense wasn't up to stopping the play, after seeing them pushed around all day. If it had been the first drive of the game , he would have punted.

Brains over brawn usually wins.

 

[eagle eye]

I understand the general benefit of going for it and 4th and the +EV you get from going for it on just about every 4th down. The percentages and statistics can change drastically from team to team, game to game, play to play.

It's similar to a poker play, you can't make a decision only on the general +EV odds. There is much more to determining the "correct" play, than that. The overall odds that your opponent has a certain hand go out the window (more or less) when you KNOW your opponent or have more specific information (tells etc...) in that moment. That dictates different strategical plays vs. what the general odds of success would dictate.

This is about the stupidest thing I've read on this site ever.

Its not just the one play that is affected by this outcome its the whole game. In football the W at the end of the game is so important. We were risking the W for a very small gain here. The situation is totally different to poker.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Remember years ago ; In the Denver at Patriots game that Shannon Sharpe was on the sidelines dialing 911 ?
To start the game, Parcells went for it on 4th and 1 at the 25, and ended up with giving Elway a gift. He immediately had a touchdown, and cruised to a big win.

What complete loser of a Patriots player back then droped the 4th down pass that woulda made a statement? I wonder...