Reiss: Brady much less effective against blitz vs. standard pass rush

[maverick4]

Mike Reiss' blog - Brady by the numbers - ESPN Boston

According to ESPN Stats & Information tracking, Brady faced standard pressure on 55 of his 100 pass attempts in the first two weeks, completing 67.2 percent of his passes. But against blitzes, Brady only completed 55.6 percent of his passes.

The Falcons, however, didn't attack Brady much with the blitz on Sunday. They brought an extra pass-rusher on 11 of Brady's 42 pass attempts, according to ESPN Stats & Information tracking. Brady was 19-of-31 for 227 yards and one touchdown against four rushers. Against the blitz, he was 6-of-11 for 50 yards.

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Now, if we can accept that for this season, due to multiple reasons, that Brady this year won't be as effective against the blitz compared to a standard rush, what does this mean?

It means that we need to use LESS shot gun. Shot gun openly eliminates any chance of run (because teams know we pass 85% of the time we are in shot gun), so teams are pass rushing and often blitzing against us in this formation.

Our team has a dominant, physical rushing attack. Our O-line is good at it, we have a stable of 4 great running backs who can take turns pounding the ball all day. This also opens up play action. We can also use more screens and traps with Brady under center.

 

[bigfandan]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

It means that we need to use LESS shot gun. Shot gun openly eliminates any chance of run (because teams know we pass 85% of the time we are in shot gun), so teams are pass rushing and often blitzing against us in this formation.

Our team has a dominant, physical rushing attack. Our O-line is good at it, we have a stable of 4 great running backs who can take turns pounding the ball all day. This also opens up play action. We can also use more screens and traps with Brady under center.

Agreed. Blitzing D often sacrifice mass for speed. Runing against allows our OL dish out punishment. It saves Brady from taking hits that keep on coming.

 

[amazinPats]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

Excellent observations.

 

[BradyisGod]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

Not to pick on Reiss, but this analysis isn't valid because he hasn't used a benchmark of comparison.

I mean, don't we all expect that performance would be lower against a blitz?

Show us league statistics of all QBs against this these types of rushes and then lets see what happens.

 

[Frezo]

The blitz beater Wes Welker will take care of that.

 

[smg93]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

Not to pick on Reiss, but this analysis isn't valid because he hasn't used a benchmark of comparison.

I mean, don't we all expect that performance would be lower against a blitz?

Show us league statistics of all QBs against this these types of rushes and then lets see what happens.

That's only if you were doing a comparison of Brady versus the league average. What this analysis only says is that the Pats are more successful when they aren't blitzed

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

I mean, don't we all expect that performance would be lower against a blitz?

Brady's career rating vs. the blitz is higher than his average against other plays. A 2 game sample doesn't change that.

 

[BradyisGod]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

That's only if you were doing a comparison of Brady versus the league average. What this analysis only says is that the Pats are more successful when they aren't blitzed

You're right. I was just waiting for the inevitable Brady sucks against the blitz postings.

And I think that what this says comes under the category of "well, duh"

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

Isn't this already common knowlege?

until the Pats make teams pay it will be like this for a while

 

[TriplecHamp]

I think a Healthy Wes Welker will help those numbers int he future. I also really liked the pump screen plays. If we can use those more often against the blitz it should help slow them down.

 

[maverick4]

So our solution is just that Welker is an upgrade over Edelman when he comes back?

The fact that the blitz is affecting Brady's timing and ability to hit the open guy, isn't a factor to change up our disproportionate use of shot gun?

 

[IcyPatriot]

I think the early use of the shotgun was meant as a transition to ease Tom back into things. I don't think we use it as much as we did in these first few weeks. Also ... If Bill would bring back the old pitchout play we could run more out of the gun ... Yo Bill ... remember that play.

 

[West Philly Patriot]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

Not to pick on Reiss, but this analysis isn't valid because he hasn't used a benchmark of comparison.

I mean, don't we all expect that performance would be lower against a blitz?

Show us league statistics of all QBs against this these types of rushes and then lets see what happens.

Dude what's your deal?! Did you watch the game or are you that much of a homer that your blind to the fact that Brady didn't play well and overthrew plenty of receivers and clearly didn't look comfortable when he had time or when the heat was on which wasn't much imoh. Thankfully the D really exercised their will in this game and bill totally took away ATL's strengths in this one.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Reiss: Brady Much Less Effective Against Blitz vs Standard Pass Rush

Not to pick on Reiss, but this analysis isn't valid because he hasn't used a benchmark of comparison.

I mean, don't we all expect that performance would be lower against a blitz?

Show us league statistics of all QBs against this these types of rushes and then lets see what happens.

Actually, we saw a stat that showed that Brady in past years was 77.5% completion rate against the blitz.

Reiss's stats show that Brady is so far this season less successful against the blitz than he has been in the past.

That leaves me optimistic.

 

[TriplecHamp]

So our solution is just that Welker is an upgrade over Edelman when he comes back?

The fact that the blitz is affecting Brady's timing and ability to hit the open guy, isn't a factor to change up our disproportionate use of shot gun?

That and Screens /draws.

 

[Kontradiction]

The blitz beater Wes Welker will take care of that.

First thing I thought as well. On top of that, if we keep running the ball like we have been, it will open up the PA pass much more. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe Brady is quite possibly the best PA pass QB of all time.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Actually, we saw a stat that showed that Brady in past years was 77.5% completion rate against the blitz.

Reiss's stats show that Brady is so far this season less successful against the blitz than he has been in the past.

That leaves me optimistic.

Exactly, a healthy brady with all his weapons will kill the blitz, we just played the Jets at the wrong time, I expect a different game next meeting in November.

 

[bbell31]

its true, brady needs to run on occasion...i.e. the play he forced the throw to moss in the back of the endzone..he could have ran for a touchdown or at least 3 yards and slid and not have been even touched

 

[Gumby]

Arent MOST QBs less effective (comp %) versus the blitz?

interesting thing (to me anyway) was that the NET Yds per completion was actually less versus blitz 6/50 - 8.3 versus the normal rush 19/227 -11.9.

I would think that blitzing would be a feast or famine thing for Defenses. But it doesnt show here in stats (1 game sample size)

SO as long as brady's Comp % is lower when blitzing AND the NET gain is lower opposing defenses have no excuse not to be pinning back their ears and going every play..... UNLESS we can keep giving them Play-action & Fred Taylor as the antidote.

really nothing to conclude on this board hasn't been said on the board all week - Pats need to emphasize the run to protect brady til he gets it together.

 

[Kontradiction]

Arent MOST QBs less effective (comp %) versus the blitz?

interesting thing (to me anyway) was that the NET Yds per completion was actually less versus blitz 6/50 - 8.3 versus the normal rush 19/227 -11.9.

I would think that blitzing would be a feast or famine thing for Defenses. But it doesnt show here in stats (1 game sample size)

SO as long as brady's Comp % is lower when blitzing AND the NET gain is lower opposing defenses have no excuse not to be pinning back their ears and going every play..... UNLESS we can keep giving them Play-action & Fred Taylor as the antidote.

really nothing to conclude on this board hasn't been said on the board all week - Pats need to emphasize the run to protect brady til he gets it together.

No. Brady frequently torched the blitz prior to his injury.