I know the majority of us are sane and realize Brady is just dealing with some rust, but for those who need to be further convinced.
In 2008 Brady was injured in the first game of the season requiring major knee surgery and missing the rest of the season. In 2008, Manning had surgery to remove an infected bursa sac in his left knee and ended up sitting out of all four pre-season games while also missing most of training camp.
Here's how they both fared after two weeks of play.
2008: Manning
1-1 Record
56/91 (61.5%)
568 Yards (6.2 Average)
2 TDs / 2 INTs
2009: Brady
1-1 Record
62/100 (62.0%)
594 Yards (5.9 Average)
2 TDs / 2 INTs
The Colts ended up going 3-4 through 8 weeks, coming off a two game losing streak and were looking to be in some trouble. Then, in the first week of November Manning puts up a 121.9 QB rating, defeats the Pats and proceeds to run the table for the rest of the regular season while winning NFL MVP. After throwing 9 interceptions in the first 7 games Manning threw only 4 during the final 9 games.
Patience.
Great OP.
There are some other similarities beyond the simple stats, if you look at the Colts' 2008 early games:
Game 1: Bears 29, Colts 13. The Bears led a close game 15-13 late in the 3rd quarter when Lance Briggs returned a fumble for a TD. Midway through the 4th quarter the Colts went for it on 4th and 1 from their own 47, and Dominic Rhodes was dropped for a 2 yard loss, allowing the Bears to take advantage of a short field and score another TD. Manning finished 30/49 for 257 yards and 1 TD but looked uncharacteristically discombobulated at times, and squandered multiple timeouts because of offensive confusion, leaving them short of timeouts at the end of the game.
Game 2: Colts 18, Vikings 15. Down 15-0 late in the 4th Quarter, Manning pulled off a miracle rally, with the Colts scoring 18 unanswered points, finally taking the lead on a 47 yard Adam Vinatieri field goal with 8 seconds left. Pats fans salivating over the Colts starting 0-2 moan. Manning was 26/42 with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Sounds a lot like the Buffalo game, with TB and the Pats out of sync and down 11, and then suddenly getting their act in gear and scoring 12 unanswered points in 5 and a half minutes.
Game 3: Jaguars 23, Colts 21. Jacksonville kicks a FG with 8 seconds left to win it, after 3 4th quarter lead changes (the Colts led 14-13 after 3 quarters). Damn, the Colts should be 0-3. Manning is 15/29 for 216 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs (including a 61 yard TD return of an INT by Rashean Mathis), continuing his uncharacteristic play.
Game 4: Colts 31, Texans 27. The Sage Rosenfels game. Coming off a bye week, and with Matt Schaub out for Houston, the Colts are down 27-10 in the 4th quarter to Sage Rosenfels and the Texans but score 21 unanswered points in just over 2 minutes, coming on 2 Peyton TD passes and a 68 yard Gary Brackett fumble return. Manning is 25/34 for 247 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT. Rosenfels loses 2 fumbles and throws an INT in a 4th quarter meltdown. Again, sounds a bit familiar? The Colts should arguably be 0-4 at this point.
Game 5: Colts 31, Ravens 3. Peyton destroys a very good Baltimore defense. Manning has 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Looks like the Colts have finally turned the corner.
Game 6: GB 34, Colts 14. Oops, maybe not. Manning is 21/42 with 0 TDs and 2 INTs, including a 62 yard Nick Collins INT return for a TD and an Aaron Rouse INT return 99 yards for a TD. Colts could be 1-5 now, but are a mediocre 3-3.
Game 7: Titans 31, Colts 21. The changing of the guard game. Undefeated Tennesee dominates the 3-3 Colts. The game wasn't that close, but a lote Colts TD made the final score respectable. Manning is 26/41 with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Colts should arguably be 1-6 at this point.
Through 7 games Manning had thrown for 10 TDs and 9 INTs.
Game 8: Colts 18, Pats 15. Remember this one? Colts win it on an Adam Vinatieri 4th quarter FG. Pats are driving when Dave Thomas's personnal foul takes us out of FG range, and Matt Cassel throws an INT to Bob Sanders on 4th and 15. Manning is 21/29 with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. A winnable game for the Pats, who fall to 5-3. Indy claws to 4-4 when they could have been 1-7.
And the Colts run the table the rest of the way, finishing 11-4, with Manning winning the MVP.
Looking at some of the similarities:
1. Good teams find a way to scrape out games when they are playing poorly. The Colts were inconsistent and often atrocious at the beginning of last season. They could easily have been 1-7, their only good game coming against a strong Baltimore team that played in the AFCCG. They were blown out by a GB team that ended up picking #9 in the draft, and lost to a Jacksonville team that ended up picking #8. They won 2 games when they were down more than 14 points in the 4th quarter and had no business winning, aided by other team's mistakes.
2. Manning was inconsistent, making atypical mistakes. He had 10 TDs and 9 INTs through 7 games and had thrown 3 INTs for TD returns. The Chicago game showed uncharacteristic mistakes with clock management, similar to the 2 TB delay of game errors against the Jets last week. He was hot and cold, was frequently rattled and didn't look like himself, punctuated with intermittent bursts of brilliance.
Yes, Manning dind't have a preseason. But his injury was much worse than TBs. And Brady is adjusting to some new players on offense too, such as TE Chris Baker and WR Joey Galloway. His trusted slot guy, Wes Welker, as out for one game.
Obviously there's no guarantee that the same script will play out, and the teams are different. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see TB struggle for a few games, showing flashes of his old brilliance combined with uncharacteristic inconsistency and mistakes, before finally putting it all together around the bye week. I could see him having a great game Sunday against a mediocre Falcon's secondary, and then throwing a stinker against the Ravens' pressure, for example. Not necesassarily going to happen, but possible.
Those who "just want consistency" from TB may have unrealistic expectations this early in the season. I just want to Pats to survive to the bye week, gradually get their timing together on offense, get Mayo back healthy, avoid other key injuries, and make it to the bye no worse than 4-3, and hopefully better.
