2008: What if we had had TB and a Secondary?

[mayoclinic]

I see a lot of predictions that the Pats will finish the 2009 regular season 10-6 or 11-5. This made me think of 2008, when we lost TB during the 1st game, went to a QB who hadn't started high school, had the worst secondary of the BB era forcing us to play a soft zone with little pash rush, and still finished 11-5, closing out the regular season 4-0.

So what would have happened if we had had Brady for the full season and this year's talent in the secondary?

I obviously don't have a crystal ball, but my initial thought is that we still loose the blowouts to Miami and San Diego, and probably the Pittsburgh game where they pulled away in the second half. But I doubt we lose the Jets or Indy games. I'd guess we would have ended up 13-3 and competing for home field advantage.

Just a thought.

 

[Ring 6]

I see a lot of predictions that the Pats will finish the 2009 regular season 10-6 or 11-5. This made me think of 2008, when we lost TB during the 1st game, went to a QB who hadn't started high school, had the worst secondary of the BB era forcing us to play a soft zone with little pash rush, and still finished 11-5, closing out the regular season 4-0.

So what would have happened if we had had Brady for the full season and this year's talent in the secondary?

I obviously don't have a crystal ball, but my initial thought is that we still loose the blowouts to Miami and San Diego, and probably the Pittsburgh game where they pulled away in the second half. But I doubt we lose the Jets or Indy games. I'd guess we would have ended up 13-3 and competing for home field advantage.

Just a thought.

With Brady, we win the SB in 2008 (or have a clunker playoff game like SB 42).
The 'rest of the team' was as good in 08 as 07, and those blowout losses arent losses if Brady is scoring 4 1st half TDs. Our offense was bad in most of those losses.
I think people are seriously underating Bradys impact.
I think we go 10-6 or 11-5 with Brafy, Moss, his OL and 46 guys off the waiver wire.

 

[Ring 6]

Just another note.
If we go 10-6 or 11-5 we have the worst team we have ever had since 2002.
Personally, I think the trend is the opposite and our roster gets stronger and deeper every year.

 

[mgteich]

Let's try it the other way. I would expect the post-Brady 2008 team to have a losing record if they played the 2009 schedule.

I see a lot of predictions that the Pats will finish the 2009 regular season 10-6 or 11-5. This made me think of 2008, when we lost TB during the 1st game, went to a QB who hadn't started high school, had the worst secondary of the BB era forcing us to play a soft zone with little pash rush, and still finished 11-5, closing out the regular season 4-0.

So what would have happened if we had had Brady for the full season and this year's talent in the secondary?

I obviously don't have a crystal ball, but my initial thought is that we still loose the blowouts to Miami and San Diego, and probably the Pittsburgh game where they pulled away in the second half. But I doubt we lose the Jets or Indy games. I'd guess we would have ended up 13-3 and competing for home field advantage.

Just a thought.

 

[mayoclinic]

Just another note.
If we go 10-6 or 11-5 we have the worst team we have ever had since 2002.
Personally, I think the trend is the opposite and our roster gets stronger and deeper every year.

I agree with you that we win the SB last year with Brady and a better secondary.

I think our roster is stronger this year than ever. Deeper? Most places I would agree (OL, with Vollmer/Levoir/Simmons quality backups; TE; RB; DL, with the best depth ever, though less talent up front with the loss of Seymour; and the secondary). Depth at QB, WR and LB are definitely still issues, however. Those seem to me the most vulnerable positions.

 

[mgteich]

I agree 100%. Our risks are our lack of depth at QB, WR and LB. To put it another way, we are short a paddle if there are long-term injuries to any of: Brady, Moss, Welker, Thomas and Mayo. Seymour may be replaceble. Wilfork may be replaceable. These players are not.

I agree with you that we win the SB last year with Brady and a better secondary.

I think our roster is stronger this year than ever. Deeper? Most places I would agree (OL, with Vollmer/Levoir/Simmons quality backups; TE; RB; DL, with the best depth ever, though less talent up front with the loss of Seymour; and the secondary). Depth at QB, WR and LB are definitely still issues, however. Those seem to me the most vulnerable positions.

 

[mayoclinic]

Let's try it the other way. I would expect the post-Brady 2008 team to have a losing record if they played the 2009 schedule.

A losing record? Why? I don't buy that at all.

2009 substitutes the NFC south for the west, the AFC south for the AFC west, and Denver and Baltimore for Indy (who we still get instead of San Diego with the division change) and Pittsburgh. Our record in 8 games against the teams we played in 2008 would be unchanged at 5-3:

2 wins vs. Buffalo
1/1 vs. the Jets
1/1 vs. the Phins
1 win vs. Denver
1 loss vs. Indy

That would leave us 8 games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Carolina, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Baltimore. You think we only win 2 or less of those games? I admit that they're harder than what we had, but we also had 2 long west coast road trips which take a lot out of a team. I think we win at least 4 of those games. I admit 6-2 is difficult with that schedule and last year's team.

 

[Ring 6]

Let's try it the other way. I would expect the post-Brady 2008 team to have a losing record if they played the 2009 schedule.

Definitely disagree.
We repeat our schedule vs the division (4-2) Indy, Denver (1-1)
You are saying that instead of 6-2 vs SD, Pitt, Oak, KC, Seat, SF, Ariz, STL we would be 2-6 vs Jax, Houston, Tenn, Bmore, Tampa, Carolina, Atlanta and NO?
That means we go 2-6 against 8 teams, only 4 of which are likely to be over .500?

 

[Ring 6]

A losing record? Why? I don't buy that at all.

2009 substitutes the NFC south for the west, the AFC south for the AFC west, and Denver and Baltimore for Indy (who we still get instead of San Diego with the division change) and Pittsburgh. Our record in 8 games against the teams we played in 2008 would be unchanged at 5-3:

2 wins vs. Buffalo
1/1 vs. the Jets
1/1 vs. the Phins
1 win vs. Denver
1 loss vs. Indy

That would leave us 8 games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Carolina, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Baltimore. You think we only win 2 or less of those games? I admit that they're harder than what we had, but we also had 2 long west coast road trips which take a lot out of a team. I think we win at least 4 of those games. I admit 6-2 is difficult with that schedule and last year's team.

By the way harder is far from fact. It is fact that preseason strength of schedule and actual are very, very different each year.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

there's no way we win in 08' with brady and all our other guys back healthy. our secondary was atrocious and would have been picked apart in the playoffs.

 

[mayoclinic]

there's no way we win in 08' with brady and all our other guys back healthy. our secondary was atrocious and would have been picked apart in the playoffs.

That's why I said TB and this year's secondary, which I expect to be much better than last year's over the course of the season.

 

[Ring 6]

A losing record? Why? I don't buy that at all.

2009 substitutes the NFC south for the west, the AFC south for the AFC west, and Denver and Baltimore for Indy (who we still get instead of San Diego with the division change) and Pittsburgh. Our record in 8 games against the teams we played in 2008 would be unchanged at 5-3:

2 wins vs. Buffalo
1/1 vs. the Jets
1/1 vs. the Phins
1 win vs. Denver
1 loss vs. Indy

That would leave us 8 games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Carolina, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Baltimore. You think we only win 2 or less of those games? I admit that they're harder than what we had, but we also had 2 long west coast road trips which take a lot out of a team. I think we win at least 4 of those games. I admit 6-2 is difficult with that schedule and last year's team.

Harder?Really? I dont see Pitt and SD. Im not any more impressed with the NFCS (the division where every year a team surprises because someone has to win the division games) (when was the last the time NFCS had playoff success?

 

[Ring 6]

there's no way we win in 08' with brady and all our other guys back healthy. our secondary was atrocious and would have been picked apart in the playoffs.

I think we would have beaten anyone but possibly Pitt if we made the playoffs last year.
Who would have beaten us?
By the end of the season with Wilhite starting and ONeal and Harrison no longer playing our pass D was improved. What games did our secondary lose?
Miami was run D vs wildcat.
SD was everything and certainly not lost by the pass D.
Jets was pass D.
Indy was Dave Thomas and our pass D was very good.
Pitt was turnovers.

I dont see your point.

 

[mayoclinic]

Harder?Really? I dont see Pitt and SD. Im not any more impressed with the NFCS (the division where every year a team surprises because someone has to win the division games) (when was the last the time NFCS had playoff success?

I would assume that Baltimore and Tennessee last year would have been reasonable substitutes for Pittsburgh and San Diego, and would like have been losses. The leaves Houston, Jacksonville, TB, New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina. 6-0 vs. that group is certainly possible, but also harder than 6-0 vs. Oakland, KC, SF, Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis. That's why I said it would have been harder. Not impossible by any means. But a bit harder.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

That's why I said TB and this year's secondary, which I expect to be much better than last year's over the course of the season.

it's too early to tell what this year's secondary can produce. they need time to gel. wilhite, butler and wheatley need more playing time in the regular season. springs and bodden need more time in the system. the secondary will make or break this team this year. i think it's miles better than last year on paper. we should know a lot by the colts game.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I would assume that Baltimore and Tennessee last year would have been reasonable substitutes for Pittsburgh and San Diego, and would like have been losses. The leaves Houston, Jacksonville, TB, New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina. 6-0 vs. that group is certainly possible, but also harder than 6-0 vs. Oakland, KC, SF, Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis. That's why I said it would have been harder. Not impossible by any means. But a bit harder.

pittsburgh, san diego and maybe baltimore.