2010 2nd rounders: Jax & Tenn

[borg]

A bonus for being a Patriots fan is that BB always provides us a team or two to wish the worst on. With 2 extra 2nd rounders in the 2010 draft, it's time to get the voodoo doll out and start hexing Tennessee (0-1)and Jacksonville.
The Patriots can directly contribute to their demise this year, playing both teams. The AFC South this year plays the AFC East and the NFC West. Tennessee has the tougher extra 2 games (Pitt and SD) while Jax has 2 easier contests (KC and Cleve). Besides playing each other twice, they both play 2 verses Houston and Indy.
Indy and Tenn are seen as the favorites. If Houston can improve their defense, they have a shot of upsetting the pecking order and helping the Patriots draft position next year.
Predictions:
Jax 7-9 2nd round draft projection 42-46
Tenn 10-6 2nd round draft projection 52-56
Pats 12-4 2nd round draft projection 60-64

 

[stinkypete]

Pretty realistic projection. I wonder if any of those picks eventually get moved into the 2011 draft?

 

[borisman]

Jacksonville's pick could easily be moved for a 2011 1st rounder if Jax finishes in the 40 range. One of the reasons a team would move their 1st rounder is the quality/quantity of players that may come out to do possible rookie salary slotting system that may take affect in '11.

The Pats could possibly have (3) 1st round picks in 2011. One in the top 10, one in the 20 range and one in the 30 range. Not too shabby. Of course, one of these will net a 2nd rounder that year and a first in 2012. We all know how the story goes.

 

[Metaphors]

Another bonus is that with the likely Junior exodus (avoiding a slotted scale in 2011), there could be unusual depth in this draft. A nice year to have 4 picks in the 32-64 range. Get some slipping 1st round talent for 2nd round prices.

 

[borg]

Another bonus is that with the likely Junior exodus (avoiding a slotted scale in 2011), there could be unusual depth in this draft. A nice year to have 4 picks in the 32-64 range. Get some slipping 1st round talent for 2nd round prices.

I agree....if underclassmen rush into the draft next year, the Pats are in great shape. And having a top ten pick in 2011 may be more important because the talent pool could be quite thin.

 

[BelichickFan]

Another bonus is that with the likely Junior exodus (avoiding a slotted scale in 2011), there could be unusual depth in this draft. A nice year to have 4 picks in the 32-64 range. Get some slipping 1st round talent for 2nd round prices.

I agree....if underclassmen rush into the draft next year, the Pats are in great shape. And having a top ten pick in 2011 may be more important because the talent pool could be quite thin.

Agree with both of these, 2010 could be very deep and 2011 could be very shallow.

 

[patchick]

Another bonus is that with the likely Junior exodus (avoiding a slotted scale in 2011), there could be unusual depth in this draft. A nice year to have 4 picks in the 32-64 range. Get some slipping 1st round talent for 2nd round prices.

Absolutely. There's not only the risk of the rookie scale, but the risk of a lockout. Get yourself a locked-in signing bonus while you can.

In fact, rookie contracts next year are probably going to be more contentious than ever as teams and agents try to maneuver around the possibility of no 2011 salaries.

 

[condon84]

Pretty realistic projection. I wonder if any of those picks eventually get moved into the 2011 draft?

If the NFL institutes a rookie salary pool in 2011, then you're gonna see a slew of underclassmans declaring for the draft next year. And those 3 second round picks become even more valuable. We could parlay them into more picks later on, or have the ability to draft a player that would have gone in the first round in other draft years. Either way, BB has set us up for major upgrades in the following years.

 

[bucky]

If the NFL institutes a rookie salary pool in 2011, then you're gonna see a slew of underclassmans declaring for the draft next year. And those 3 second round picks become even more valuable. We could parlay them into more picks later on, or have the ability to draft a player that would have gone in the first round in other draft years. Either way, BB has set us up for major upgrades in the following years.

I think you guys are over inflating the effect of this. The issue with rookie salaries - and the ones who could potentially lose a lot of money - are the top 10 picks. You're not going to see guys projected in the 25+ range running into the draft because the difference in late 1st or early 2nd round money won't be that significant.

So what will happen is all the potential top 20 picks will leave school. How many guys are there that don't declare every year? Last year there may have been a half dozen or so - Bradford, Mays, Spikes, and McCoy come to mind.

So I think the big effect will be on the top 25 or so in the first round of 2010 and the top 10 of 2011.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I think you guys are over inflating the effect of this. The issue with rookie salaries - and the ones who could potentially lose a lot of money - are the top 10 picks. You're not going to see guys projected in the 25+ range running into the draft because the difference in late 1st or early 2nd round money won't be that significant.

So what will happen is all the potential top 20 picks will leave school. How many guys are there that don't declare every year? Last year there may have been a half dozen or so - Bradford, Mays, Spikes, and McCoy come to mind.

So I think the big effect will be on the top 25 or so in the first round of 2010 and the top 10 of 2011.

I agree: slotting should have very little effect outside of the first round, so only underclassmen who could expect to be a first-round pick in 2011 would have any real incentive to leave early.

Moreover, on a related note, the NFL can choose whether it wants to keep the rookie salary cap in place, even if salaries as a whole are uncapped.

 

[patchick]

I agree: slotting should have very little effect outside of the first round, so only underclassmen who could expect to be a first-round pick in 2011 would have any real incentive to leave early.

Absolutely. But wouldn't you think that several dozen underclassmen hold that expectation, realistic or not?

 

[bucky]

Absolutely. But wouldn't you think that several dozen underclassmen hold that expectation, realistic or not?

I would argue that of those "several dozen" (for the sake of argument), 80% come out anyway. So I still think there are maybe a half dozen or so true impact players who will come out because of the changes in the rookie salary structure. This is just based on general numbers, without looking at the specific prospects in the 2010 draft. That's a noticeable number, but I think the effect is somewhat tame by the time you get into the 50s and 60s.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Absolutely. But wouldn't you think that several dozen underclassmen hold that expectation, realistic or not?

True, but there aren't all that many Darius Walker types. . . .

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I think you guys are over inflating the effect of this. The issue with rookie salaries - and the ones who could potentially lose a lot of money - are the top 10 picks. You're not going to see guys projected in the 25+ range running into the draft because the difference in late 1st or early 2nd round money won't be that significant.

So what will happen is all the potential top 20 picks will leave school. How many guys are there that don't declare every year? Last year there may have been a half dozen or so - Bradford, Mays, Spikes, and McCoy come to mind.

So I think the big effect will be on the top 25 or so in the first round of 2010 and the top 10 of 2011.

Not totally disagreeing with you - but I dont believe some are over-inflating the effect. Even if say 6-8 extra (first day) eligible juniors declare - that pushes down the talent pool. So late first round talent gets pushed to top of 2nd round. Top of 2nd round (borderline first round) gets pushed down to mid-2nd round. and so on. With 3 picks in 2nd round - that gives 3 chances to get higher value than what one would normally expect to have. Means 3 chances to strike it rich with as we all know the draft can be a crapshoot. (By far most players in Pro Bowl last year were 1st and 2nd rounders).

Juniors will declare en mass due to 2 factors:
1) threat of a rookie salary cap..Even if not a top 10 pick, a 2nd rounder could easily lose hundreds of thousands of dollars. Tell me what 22 year old will want to forgo that.
2) threat of a lockout for 2010 season. Even though there will be a draft no team will sign the picks to contracts (generally right before/ start of training camp - which wont happen with no CBA). No football - no pay.

Fear is a great motivator......

 

[Metaphors]

Absolutely. But wouldn't you think that several dozen underclassmen hold that expectation, realistic or not?

Hard to look ahead and predict 2010, but looking back at 2009 I would have expected the following players to have declared with the prospect of a salary scale/work stoppage looming:

QB Sam Bradford
TE Jermaine Gresham (he's hating his decision now)
OT Trent Williams
OT Russell Okung
DE Greg Hardy
DT Ndamukong Suh
DT Terrance Cody
ILB Brandon Spikes
OLB Sergio Kindle
S Taylor Mays

So that is 10 additional players (conservative number) that would all be in the top 60. That means ten top 50 players will slide down into that 50-60 range. That is a significant number so it is reasonable to expect something similar in 2010.

So who are the Juniors likely affected by this situation:
QB Sam Bradford
QB Jevan Snead
QB Jimmy Clausen
RB Jonathan Dwyer
WR Dez Bryant
WR Arrelious Benn
WR Damian Williams
OT Anthony Davis
OT Brian Bulaga
DE Carlos Dunlap
DT Gerald McCoy
ILB Rolando McClain
OLB Travis Lewis
CB Joe Haden
S Eric Berry
S Reshad Jones

If all of these guys come out, some interesting prospects are in play for the Pats that might not be otherwise: Spikes, Kindle and a slew of LB and DL prospects.

 

[patchick]

Hard to look ahead and predict 2010, but looking back at 2009 I would have expected the following players to have declared with the prospect of a salary scale/work stoppage looming:

QB Sam Bradford
TE Jermaine Gresham (he's hating his decision now)
OT Trent Williams
OT Russell Okung
DE Greg Hardy
DT Ndamukong Suh
DT Terrance Cody
ILB Brandon Spikes
OLB Sergio Kindle
S Taylor Mays

So that is 10 additional players (conservative number) that would all be in the top 60. That means ten top 50 players will slide down into that 50-60 range. That is a significant number so it is reasonable to expect something similar in 2010.

So who are the Juniors likely affected by this situation:
QB Sam Bradford
QB Jevan Snead
QB Jimmy Clausen
RB Jonathan Dwyer
WR Dez Bryant
WR Arrelious Benn
WR Damian Williams
OT Anthony Davis
OT Brian Bulaga
DE Carlos Dunlap
DT Gerald McCoy
ILB Rolando McClain
OLB Travis Lewis
CB Joe Haden
S Eric Berry
S Reshad Jones

If all of these guys come out, some interesting prospects are in play for the Pats that might not be otherwise: Spikes, Kindle and a slew of LB and DL prospects.

:youtheman:

Thanks for taking the time to name names, it really adds some perspective to a very hypothetical discussion. Add in the potential for some 2nd-tier prospects to enter fearing they'd get no rookie year at all in 2011, and the impact on rounds 2-4 or so could be pretty real.

 

[borg]

Bumped

After week 2
2010 Patriots draft projections: rounds 1 and 2 (Ignoring tie breakers)
Pats #16
Pats (Jags pick (0-2) #33
Pats (Titans pick (0-2) #34
Pats #48

 

[patsox23]

EXCELLENT and worthy bump. Please keep it up. (Literally.)

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Are we relegated to draft talk in week 2 already??? I know the loss was bad, but the season is far from over...

 

[BelichickFan]

Are we relegated to draft talk in week 2 already??? I know the loss was bad, but the season is far from over...

Believe it or not we can do both. Jax and Tenn #2s are independent of the Patriots' situation (although Tennessee @ Jesters next week intersects them somewhat).