Five thoughts on the Seymour trade to Oakland for the Raiders' first-round pick in 2011:
1. In the last six drafts, here's where the Raiders have picked in the first round: 7, 4, 1, 7, 7, 2. If the trend continues, the Patriots will have no worse than the seventh pick in the 2011 draft. For a ninth-year defensive lineman who turns 30 in four weeks and who has missed eight games due to injury in the last two years ... well, let's just say Seymour would have to morph into Reggie White (who had 88 sacks after turning 30) to make this deal worth it for Al Davis and the Raiders.
2. Seymour, I'm told, is angry about the deal. He lives in Foxboro, has children he may have to relocate to new schools as the school year dawns and has to get acclimated to a new defense (and an awful team) a week before the opening game. "I would not be surprised if he doesn't report,'' a good friend of Seymour's told me Sunday. I would. Aside from not earning his 2009 salary of $3.7 million, Seymour wouldn't be able to be a free-agent if he doesn't play this year. As it stands now, his contract is up after this year, and if he plays well and stays healthy, he could hit the jackpot when next year's probable uncapped season plays out.
3. This is a deal for Davis to try to win now, obviously. But how many more desperation deals can one team make? Last year, it was $55 million for Javon Walker (who's been a total non-factor), $72 million plus two draft choices for DeAngelo Hall (cut midway through his first Raider year), $39 million for Gibril Wilson (cut after one year), and $50.5 million for Tommy Kelly (a starting defensive tackle still). This offseason, the Raiders made Shane Lechler the highest-paid punter in history, more than doubling the previous record, and gave cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha more guaranteed money than Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in their current deals. As crazy as all that is, you know that Seymour will want to get out of Oakland if he can make big money anywhere else, so the Raiders almost have to try to sign him long-term to avoid the embarrassment of him being one-and-done in Oakland.
4. For New England, it simply reinforces that Bill Belichick will keep you as long as you're worth keeping, and when he's done with you, or when you can be of no more value to him, you're gone. With second-round defensive tackle Ron Brace and sixth-round DT Myron Pryor both showing well in the preseason, and knowing the Patriots weren't going to pay a 30-year-old defensive lineman the $9-million-a-year in free agency some team certainly would have if he had a productive 2009, the decision couldn't have been a painful one for Belichick.
5. Defensive leaders lost in New England in the last 12 months: Mike Vrabel and Seymour (traded), Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison (retired), and Junior Seau (not re-signed). I can't think of a team that's lost as many cornerstone players and leaders in one year since I've been covering the league.
