Thoughts on the roster...

[GullyFoyle]

Sometime today....I would think late afternoon...early evening...24 hrs AFTER cut down time...

thanks crossing my fingers for Nunn

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

A.D. Thomas was a 6th.

That 6th round of 2000 was a diamond in the rough...Drafted in that round were...
[FONT=&quot]Brady, Marc Bulger, Neil Rackers, Paul Edinger, Dhani Jones, Adalius Thomas, Mike Anderson, Matt Bowen[/FONT]

 

[Pats726]

2. I LIKE the trade of Thomas....and I liked Thomas, but he'll do better in another system. The more I think of it, what good is it to have a great pass catching TE in THIS offense. In the spread offense, the WRs are the ones that will catch ball. TEs are for blocking, the GL offense, and safety release patterns. Quite frankly, if I want to send someone down the seam, I'd just as soon it be a WR.

And don't sleep on Watson....just 3 years ago, he caught 50 balls in just 13 games... but it was in a DIFFERENT offense. Matthews' blocking skills fill a bigger need on the team than than a good pass catching TE (Thomas).

3. I still don't like the fact that we kept 5 RBs. BTW its the number I don't like, not the 5 guys they kept. Again, I would have rather had a guy like Lenon or Ventrone instead of a 5th RB who will probably be an inactive until an injury occurs

4. I read somewhere that 9 of the 11 draft picks were kept. WOW, before the season I would have thought that 5 would be stretching it. This COULD be the best draft class since 2003....if not the best in n the BB era....and I'm thinking Nunn comes back to the PS

5. Very disappointed that Crable was put on IR....again. I was looking forward to watching him develop. I can still picture his pick in the Giant pre season game that year. It was a VERY athletic play. All that promise and nothing to show for it but TWO red shirt years

6. Hey my "binky" Rob Ninkovich made the roster DESPITE keeping 5 RBs. But if I were Rob, I wouldn't fully unpack just yet because I have a feeling that there is a QB in our future and someone will have to go, and Rob MAY not be the 53rd guy, but he's close.

7. Good to see that Slater will recover. I fully expected him to wind up on the IR. But he's another guy who just might be warming a roster spot until the Pats look to tweak the over the next few weeks.

BOTTOM LINE - Good club now...SHOULD get better as the season goes along.

2----I think some have mentioned how a tight end is better catching a ball on the seam than a WR..Watson can be good at that and he has speed and size. Not that I would expect him to catch a ton of passes, but he CAN do that. Thomas, for all his supposedly great skills of receiving, has done little but show flashes...just enough to get by. I KNOW he was Young's big target at Texas...BUT he hasn't even come close. I like having a larger tight end for blocking...with he and Baker in the game..it will make it easier for RBs to get in..MORE a DGraham ni the trenches sort of guy...I agree. And Baker does have good hands. Would not be surprised to see a DeVree or other TE on the Practice Squad.
3----Running backs go down and are filled with bumps and bruises, so having an extra one is quite good..to fill in for whoever of the 4 ahead. The problem is that there HAS to be 8 inactive players...one can add a Ventrone ot a ST player, but who are the 8 going to be? Usually 2 OL, a 3rd Qb if they pick one up, a DL man...and 4 others. Having an extra ST player is fine IF he can get on the field. I'm fine with having a RB inactive each week..some players need to be inactive...ST players can't be.
4----As many have pointed out...Nunn will NOT make it back to the PSquad..and that is quite sad..I wish him well and I expect one team will pick him up and he will become a tough NFL player..a real surprise having not been invited to camps the year he graduated.
5----Hopefully he can have impact next year..but I am sort of pessimistic. Quite a disappointment. My only hope is that while he's recovering from these injuries is that he's also becoming more in football shape and strengthening his legs and becoming more into an NFL OLB's body. Hoping....
6-----I think Ninkovitch is OK..there are other places where players could be cut...so I think he could be vulnerable..but a few down the line. I think with so few ILBs, having Ninkovitch and other to go outside is good as Thomas might be that inside back up player.
7-----I thought mid afternoon that Slater would make the team. It was also only a bit over a day since the injury occurred so I was thinking that maybe there was a gray area with his injury that possibly they don't know for sure how long he will be out...waiting for more info on that. It is possible...and for that reason, I think he might end up going on IR. So I would say that it is VERY possible.
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I----I do not think that Hoyer will be cut. No way will he make it to the Practice Squad. O'Connell looked incredibly shaky and had four teams coming after him. Hoyer would have more. Not happening...he's basically taking KO's place on the roster as teh young QB that the team wishes to groom.
II----I do think a vet quarterback will be brought in. They have a bunch of choices out there, Huard, Griese, Garcia and others. I would not at all be surprise dif in two days another is on the 53.
III---There offensive line is not set. They have 3 interior line backups and only 1 at tackle..my sense is that either Connolly or Wendell will stick. Both can play C or G, but it seems neither is totally strong at all 3 positions. My guess is that one goes and possibly returns to the Practice Squad and a vet tackle is brought in to back up Light and Kaczur.
Or..maybe they are really all set with Vollmer and would have a position open.
IV---This team really is in flux with so many players available so this roster is hardly set in stone. There will be a few changes in the next 4-5 days.
V----There are a bunch of injuries that are under the radar for the most part that I do believe are influencing the roster shaping to some degree. Morris, Maroney, Edelman, Welker, Connolly, Pryor, Springs, Wheatley...it will be interesting to see who of all of these is not on the field when practices begin this week.

 

[Pats726]

thanks crossing my fingers for Nunn

It's going to take a LOT MORE than crossed fingers to have him return...unfortunately.

 

[farn]

I have to echo the fears that Hoyer being released is a risk not worth taking. Can't be bringing in new faces - crazy things can happen on opening day. Better to keep him onboard as #2 or at least until a new dude studies the playbook.

Obviously, BB feels he's as good as the next guy anyways... he dumped Gutz & KOC (who, presumably, knew the sustem) and didn't bother getting anyone in here except for Walter - kinda late.

Also, coach must value Slater quite a bit. He is hurt, he is a STer by trade - basically - and he still feels like keepign him on the 53 rather than others. Interesting. Unless he's going on IR when they go over the list of new players to be had...

 

[patriotscpfc]

It's going to take a LOT MORE than crossed fingers to have him return...unfortunately.

I'll cross my nuts then.

 

[RussFrancis]

Slater's going to IR as soon as we find a 3rd QB, imo. No way can we skate by with 2, when one of them is an undrafted rookie FA. Not happening. This is a classic Belichick move. He's just keeping that 53rd roster spot warm with a player who everyone knows is hurt. Slater may be IRed, but I dont think he'll ever play for this team again. He just makes too many mistakes. I like his gunner play, but that's about it with him. Then he falls down untouched and hyperextends his elbow?? Basically hurts himself? Not seeing it with him one bit. Im good with everyone else.

 

[patchick]

UDFA are far and away the most populous group

It makes sense, compared to any individual round. Every year you bring in a slew of UDFAs vs. one 4th, one 5th, etc. Even if only, say a third or a quarter of the UDFAs are as good as drafted players, they're still at a big statistical advantage.

There's another advantage, too -- unlike draftees, the better UDFAs get to choose their team. They look for the best fit and the best roster opportunity.

 

[vyrago]

Adaleus Thomas, Mike Wright, Pierre Woods, Ryan Wendall, Brandon McGowan, Mike Matthews, Dan Connolly, Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, Gary Guyton, Eric Alexander, Chris Hanson. Steven Neal

Yes that's right....they all came into the league as UDFAs. Think about it. This is one of the most talented 53 man rosters in the the NFL, not a team that's "rebuilding" by any means, yet almost 23% of its roster WEREN'T deemed good enough to be drafted out of college. BTW to BB's credit, 8 of the 12 are home grown UDFAs....and 4 of the 12 are starters, plus Hanson.

I just thought it was interesting..

I'm not sure how or where I would find this information so I'll be lazy and ask you folks before I search again: What is the relative success rate of the major sports (football, baseball, basketball) drafts?

In other words what percentage of drafted players actually make the team that drafted them?

 

[mayoclinic]

It makes sense, compared to any individual round. Every year you bring in a slew of UDFAs vs. one 4th, one 5th, etc. Even if only, say a third or a quarter of the UDFAs are as good as drafted players, they're still at a big statistical advantage.

There's another advantage, too -- unlike draftees, the better UDFAs get to choose their team. They look for the best fit and the best roster opportunity.

Do you really think UDFAs get to pick best fit and roster opportunity? They usually sign pretty quickly.

It's amazing what a crapshoot the draft is, considering all of the 1st day picks who haven't panned out (Brian Brohm cut, 2 2006 2nd round TEs cut, etc.), and then guys like Brady and Adalius Thomas going in the 6th. 230 teams passed on Hoyer and Guyton (including the Patriots).

 

[patchick]

I'm not sure how or where I would find this information so I'll be lazy and ask you folks before I search again: What is the relative success rate of the major sports (football, baseball, basketball) drafts?

In other words what percentage of drafted players actually make the team that drafted them?

I don't think you can meaningfully compare a league with a minor-league system vs. football and basketball. MLB has (IIRC) a 50-round draft -- more draft rounds than major league roster spots. Plus prospects are routinely traded around before they ever reach the big club.

The NBA and NFL have comparable round vs. roster ratios (.13) but in the NBA half of all draft picks are first-rounders. That changes things somewhat; you don't have the same back-of-the-roster space to take a couple of interesting developmental prospects.

Oh, and to directly answer your question: I have no idea.

 

[patchick]

Do you really think UDFAs get to pick best fit and roster opportunity? They usually sign pretty quickly.

Yeah, it's not like they get to interview their prospective teams. But the top few dozen at least get multiple offers and their agents help them choose the most advantageous situation. It's no coincidence that Hoyer chose a Patriots team that had only 2 QBs under contract.

 

[PatsFan37]

League averages (Patriots in brackets)
First round -- 7.9 (12)
Second round -- 7.0 (5)
Third round -- 6.5 (7)
Fourth round -- 6.2 (5)
Fifth round -- 5.1 (6)
Sixth round -- 5.0 (5)
Seventh round -- 5.3 (3)
Undrafted -- 21.6 (23)

Following up on roster breakdown by draft pick - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

More interesting than the comparitive UDFA stats are the 1st round stats. The Pats have both their own first rounders plus a number of older free-agent first rounders with a track record of productivity (Moss, Taylor). Looking at those older vets: there's a reason they were picked in the first round, and their superior talent and the extra coaching they receive helped them survive long enough to lose some of their speed and cache yet still be strong contributors.

On the other end, the Pats have remarkably few first round busts. We're all disappointed about KOC getting the axe after two years, Chad Jackson busting, but in reality the Pats have done well with their highest picks. They're either damn good (Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Meriweather, Mayo, Mankins) or good enough to stick (Maroney, Watson).

While the UDFA stat is the same as other teams, more or less, the relative number of first rounders is, I think, more telling. Of all the rounds, it's the most determinative of a teams health, especially the drafted 1st ronders, since they're so expensive and have the greatest potential talent.

 

[cstjohn17]

Beggars can't be choosers, top 5 roster in the league. I expect the offense to be top 3, defense to be top 1/3 in PPG and special teams to be league average. That will be enough to get into the playoffs and likely secure a first round bye. After that anything can and will happen.

This quote from Mike Reiss really stuck out to me:
"The makeup of the roster seems to indicate that the four-man line is going to be a more prevalent part of the defense going forward. The Patriots still have the flexibility to play 3-4 at times,but they would probably want to improve their linebacker depth if that is the long-term approach."

That is a scary statement, it appears they are stuck in a nowhere land with the LBs. Not enough depth and quality to play a base 3-4 and the wrong people to play a 4-3 consistently. The DLine is not perfectly setup for a 4-3 either, rushing 4 big DT types may stop the run but doesn't create much of a pass rush, that puts the onus on TBC and Burgess who at least in pre-season can easily be handled 1:1.

I don't know what this means for the future, do they scout 4-3 players? 3-4 players or both? For years it has been obvious that the LBs needed some new additions. This is just another example how not being proactive in this area has impacted the roster.

 

[JackBauer]

Beggars can't be choosers, top 5 roster in the league. I expect the offense to be top 3, defense to be top 1/3 in PPG and special teams to be league average. That will be enough to get into the playoffs and likely secure a first round bye. After that anything can and will happen.

This quote from Mike Reiss really stuck out to be "The makeup of the roster seems to indicate that the four-man line is going to be a more prevalent part of the defense going forward. The Patriots still have the flexibility to play 3-4 at times,but they would probably want to improve their linebacker depth if that is the long-term approach."

That is a scary statement, it appears they are stuck in a nowhere land with the LBs. Not enough depth and quality to play a base 3-4 and the wrong people to play a 4-3 consistently. The DLine is not perfectly setup for a 4-3 either, rushing 4 big DT types may stop the run but doesn't create much of a pass rush, that puts the onus on TBC and Burgess who at least in pre-season can easily be handled 1:1.

I don't know what this means for the future, do they scout 4-3 players? 3-4 players or both? For years it has been obvious that the LBs needed some new additions. This is just another example how not being proactive in this area has impacted the roster.

I think they were proactive, just turns out the guy they brought in to play went down for the year.

 

[Patspsycho]

I believe the practice squad signing starts at 11 a.m. today.

I am hoping that Nunn makes it if he hasn't been snapped up by another team. The Herald is reporting that two teams have already expressed interest.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I believe the practice squad signing starts at 11 a.m. today.

I am hoping that Nunn makes it if he hasn't been snapped up by another team. The Herald is reporting that two teams have already expressed interest.

FWIW, I believe it's later than that (like 4 PM or something, to allow time for waiver claims), although it does start today.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yeah, it's not like they get to interview their prospective teams. But the top few dozen at least get multiple offers and their agents help them choose the most advantageous situation. It's no coincidence that Hoyer chose a Patriots team that had only 2 QBs under contract.

I guess that's true if you don't count resigned ERFA Gutierrez.

 

[Pats726]

FWIW, I believe it's later than that (like 4 PM or something, to allow time for waiver claims), although it does start today.

Not really sure when it starts officially...supposedly the waiver period is 24 hours..so theoretically that would be at 6 PM...24 hours AFTER the cut down time deadline.
It's an interesting question as to how much teams can talk to a player BEFORE that 24 hrs is up..Things like this are quite intersting and usually totally under the radar with writers and reporters.
The whole UDFA situation was one that went unreported until 2 years ago when a lot of it was exposed by PFT as many teams seem to pressure players into signing quick and fast. I wonder the logistics of really how this is done with signing players for the PSquad. MikeR?? Rapp?? SMY???? Maybe someone can shed light on exactly the procedure..logistics of how when it starts and gets done.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

That's an eye opener, and a great find, thanks Lamp. I would have thought that the league average would be lower than 21%. Kind of makes you wonder about the draft when just about every team has 10-12 guys on their roster that 32 teams passed on SEVEN times.

Likewise, maybe once the 4th round is done, don't get drafted. I would think a part of this is that the UDFA has the chance to choose where to go and pick the best opportunity.

I would rather have that chance than be drafted in the 7th round and be training camp fodder.