Are you confident in this defense?

[Ring 6]

I look at this Patriots defense and see little seasoned leadership, plus little cohesion (esp. at cornerback and linebacker) coming out of the gate. Unless BB is keeping something under wraps, seems to me we're going to need every point the offense can muster. If anyone here can make a case for this defense being anything but average, I'd like to hear it.

I'll make the case.

Last year we were above average, ranked 8th and 10th in points and yards.
So if we compare equally or favorably to last year, we are certainly above average.
DL- At least equal, but assuming Warren is healthier that makes us better. Brace may or may not add something. Nothing is lesser than last year.
LB- Our OLBs last year were Vrabel + 1/2 Thomas, + 1/4 Woods + 1/4 Colvin. I see Thomas filling a role similar to Vrabels and based on 2008, thats an upgrade. For half the games we are less at the other side, and half the games better. The sub package role of OLBs could be improved by Burgess.
ILB Mayo figures to be better in year 2. We use a 2nd ILB about half the time, and by the end of 2008 it seemed apparent Guyton was outplaying Tedy. Overall our LB play in 2008 particularly due to injury was disappointing, and this year should be a wash at the worst.
CB- BB decided that Hobbs and Oneal were not good enough and the corners left here and brought in are upgrades. There is no question BB feels it is an upgrade because he had the ability to return the entire unit and gained next to nothing in return for the jettisoned players. If BB is to be considered knowing what he is doing this is a big upgrade.
S- Harrison did not play much, or well in 2008. At least a wash, probably an improvement.

BB BY CHOICE replaced 4 of his starters (and the 5th, Rodney, he would have, if given the choice, because he clearly was through).
There is a big difference, IMO, from changes due to losing players and changes due to getting rid of players. If we are to believe BB knows something about defense, our defense will be better in 09 than 08, because he chose to change the personell.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

This is my view as well. I think the secondary is going to hawk up a lot of balls, and the front 7 will create turnovers. It will be a big year for giving the ball back to the offense.

It's still way too early to expect the defense to show anything yet. But they will.

I also think tipped balls, forced fumbles and strip sacks will generate a lot of turnovers as well. The culture in the Pats locker room, and the draw the Pats have to get "Patriot" players is just starting to blossom. The energy, work-ethic and enthusiasm of the younger players coming in is almost palpable. BB has built something pretty special here, and he knows it. IMO, this is the most talented Pats team ever fielded, but only time will tell.

 

[Ring 6]

D-line is better than last year

Linebackers are worse than last year

Secondary is worse than last year, right now, but could improve dramatically if Springs gets out there or if one of the puppies grows up over the course of the season.

I'm confident that the offense will give the defense the opportunity to go through the needed growing pains, and that the defense will gel in time to help when it's needed at the end of the season and in the playoffs.

LBs depend on health.
We had Colvin and Seau out there by the end of the season, Thomas played 9 games.
Mayo 09>Mayo 08
Guyton 09=Guyton/Bruschi 08
Thomas 09>>>>Thomas 08 if he plays 16 games
Vrabel 08 was very ineffective. Vrabel 07 to Woods/Burgess/Crabel is a downgrade Vrabel 08 to those guys may well be an upgrade.

I think whether the LB position is better or worse comes down to how they OLBs plays as sub package DEs. I see little difference (effective both seasons) in first down base D. The pass rush they generate in sub packages is the most vital variable and the bar wasnt set very high last year.

 

[Deus Irae]

LBs depend on health.
We had Colvin and Seau out there by the end of the season, Thomas played 9 games.
Mayo 09>Mayo 08
Guyton 09=Guyton/Bruschi 08
Thomas 09>>>>Thomas 08 if he plays 16 games
Vrabel 08 was very ineffective. Vrabel 07 to Woods/Burgess/Crabel is a downgrade Vrabel 08 to those guys may well be an upgrade.

I think whether the LB position is better or worse comes down to how they OLBs plays as sub package DEs. I see little difference (effective both seasons) in first down base D. The pass rush they generate in sub packages is the most vital variable and the bar wasnt set very high last year.

Well, we disagree here. I don't think this year's linebacking is even close to last year's. That's why we're seeing more 4-3. Whether it will stay that way over the course of the season is something that only time can tell us.

Thomas
Vrabel
Mayo
Bruschi

v.

Thomas
Mayo
Woods

No contest, in my opinion.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Thomas
Mayo
Woods

No contest, in my opinion.

Woods will not be a starter in their 4-3 formations. That role is going to Gary Guyton. In fact, Guyton is the prototypical OLB in a 4-3 defense, Woods is not. You know BB thinks Guyton is a starter because he didn't even play on Thursday night while Woods did.

 

[mgteich]

Vrabel and Hobbs were important parts of last year's defense.

You are kidding right?

Average?

Last year this was a top 10 D right? What key players have they lost
that would make them worst? None

What new players will make them faster and/or more physical?
How about Burgess, Bolden and Springs(if healthy)
Oh and then there is Brace and the fact Mayo is bigger/stronger
and Gyton will have the needed experience under his belt.
Meriweather is primed for a break out season.

We have yet to see what this D will bring when they start game
planning for teams.

Will they be great from the get go? Probably not but after 6 weeks
I bet you'll be singing a different tune.
I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a top 5 D if no significant
injuries.

 

[Ring 6]

Well, we disagree here. I don't think this year's linebacking is even close to last year's. That's why we're seeing more 4-3. Whether it will stay that way over the course of the season is something that only time can tell us.

Thomas
Vrabel
Mayo
Bruschi

v.

Thomas
Mayo
Woods

No contest, in my opinion.

I know that while our opinions of Vrabel as a Pat are similar your opinion of him in 2008 is much higher than mine. I believe that is the difference we have here.
Bruschi's retirement isn't going to have a great difference, and the likelihood we are healthier and not playing Colvin and Seau by the end of the year would be an improvement.

By the way, your analysis leaves out that Guyton will be in Bruschis spot, and that Burgess, at least on 3rd down will share Vrabels duties.

 

[Ring 6]

Vrabel and Hobbs were important parts of last year's defense.

They were important parts, but neither played particularly well.

 

[Deus Irae]

I know that while our opinions of Vrabel as a Pat are similar your opinion of him in 2008 is much higher than mine. I believe that is the difference we have here.
Bruschi's retirement isn't going to have a great difference, and the likelihood we are healthier and not playing Colvin and Seau by the end of the year would be an improvement.

By the way, your analysis leaves out that Guyton will be in Bruschis spot, and that Burgess, at least on 3rd down will share Vrabels duties.

It's not leaving out Guyton/Burgess with any ill intent or forgetfulness. I was pointing out the vast disparity in the starters. Burgess hasn't done anything 3-4 linebacker in New England to date, so I didn't even bother with that, because I don't see how a fair evaluation can be made there at this time.

 

[PatsFaninME]

Look at the defense this way. Coach Belichick looks to take away the first and second options of the opposing offense. I believe this defense can contain any running game in the league and can probably outright shut down all but the top few teams.

Second, look at the top teams in this AFC. Let's start with Pitt. Not too difficult shutting down their run game and who wouldn't take making Ben try to win a game with his arm. Like our chances there! Indy has much less offensive fire-power than in years past and even in their hey-day, they couldn't beat the Patriots. Sit on Wayne and then what does Manning do. I can hear him whining now. Bring them back to the AFC East so we can get 2 more easy wins every year! Ravens have another great D but still not scared by there offense one bit. Houston looks good but still don't think Schaub can take them to next level.

Face it, it's the Patriots Superbown to win unless they screw it up. Their biggest obstacle may be that the league doesn't want them to win. This year we over come even bad calls in suberbowl.

 

[Ring 6]

It's not leaving out Guyton/Burgess with any ill intent or forgetfulness. I was pointing out the vast disparity in the starters. Burgess hasn't done anything 3-4 linebacker in New England to date, so I didn't even bother with that, because I don't see how a fair evaluation can be made there at this time.

But Guyton is a starter, and I think everyone would agree not much if any downgrade from Bruschi.

I dont think starter to starter is fair when this years team will take a 'starters' role and split it among others.
Vrabel last year was a 'starter' as a nickel/dime DE, and this year that appears to be Burgess. So regardless of what Burgess would do in the base, at this point it seems that Vrabel is replaced by Woods in the base, and Burgess the other half of the snaps. The base part is a dropoff, the sub much less likely so, as Vrabel was not at all effective in rushing the QB last year.

 

[PatsfanGlo]

I think our defense can be very good. IMO I think our best defense will be our offense with Brady back.....if they can produce anything close to 2007 and jump to 3 TD lead, our defense can just tee off of opposing QB all day long, which was one of the big reason why Vrable had big season.

 

[Deus Irae]

But Guyton is a starter, and I think everyone would agree not much if any downgrade from Bruschi.

Clearly, I don't agree with this.

I dont think starter to starter is fair when this years team will take a 'starters' role and split it among others.

Using your logic here we can't compare the front seven of the two seasons at all.

Vrabel last year was a 'starter' as a nickel/dime DE, and this year that appears to be Burgess. So regardless of what Burgess would do in the base, at this point it seems that Vrabel is replaced by Woods in the base, and Burgess the other half of the snaps. The base part is a dropoff, the sub much less likely so, as Vrabel was not at all effective in rushing the QB last year.

Again, we disagree. Also, you can't claim that Woods is replacing Vrabel and also claim that Guyton is the starter. It's a physical impossibility. Either Woods or Guyton has to be the man in this season's base, but it can't be both if you're using the 4-3. Since you've already claimed Guyton is the starter, even though I'd named Woods, you don't get a second bite at the apple.

 

[patsox23]

Last year this was a top 10 D right? What key players have they lost that would make them worst?

Last year's D was a perfect example of "sometimes the stats lie." The D was not good, no matter what the ranking. But if you need to look at rankings, look at their 3rd down %age. A lot of people look at the Brady injury as the reason we didn't make the playoffs. It wasn't that. It was the defense. Put a decent D with how the offense was performing by the end of the season, and you're looking at a team with a real chance to compete for a Super Bowl, imo.

 

[Ring 6]

Clearly, I don't agree with this.



Using your logic here we can't compare the front seven of the two seasons at all.



Again, we disagree. Also, you can't claim that Woods is replacing Vrabel and also claim that Guyton is the starter. It's a physical impossibility. Either Woods or Guyton has to be the man in this season's base, but it can't be both if you're using the 4-3. Since you've already claimed Guyton is the starter, even though I'd named Woods, you don't get a second bite at the apple.

Yes we disagree on the impact of Guyton replacing Bruschi.
If you want to only compare 'staters' and not the guys who will be on the field playing, then I guess you cant compare. How can you compare Vrabel playing 100% of the snaps to Woods playing 50% of them without considering that Burgess is playing the other 50%?

I am not using a 4-3 and neither is BB.

 

[patsox23]

Secondary is worse than last year, right now, but could improve dramatically if Springs gets out there or if one of the puppies grows up over the course of the season.

Disagree. The secondary is already better than last year. Not sure why you feel this way.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes we disagree on the impact of Guyton replacing Bruschi.
If you want to only compare 'staters' and not the guys who will be on the field playing, then I guess you cant compare. How can you compare Vrabel playing 100% of the snaps to Woods playing 50% of them without considering that Burgess is playing the other 50%?

I am not using a 4-3 and neither is BB.

You cannot compare Burgess. He has not played linebacker for the team yet. It's really pretty simple.

As for the 4-3, clearly BB is using it. Whether or not it will be 'the base' is still open to question.

 

[Deus Irae]

Disagree. The secondary is already better than last year. Not sure why you feel this way.

Two eyes, ability to watch games multiple times and the ability to analyze what I'm seeing. Hobbs would still be the best CB on the team (Springs not evaluated due to his not playing) going into the regular season.

 

[Ring 6]

Last year's D was a perfect example of "sometimes the stats lie." The D was not good, no matter what the ranking. But if you need to look at rankings, look at their 3rd down %age. A lot of people look at the Brady injury as the reason we didn't make the playoffs. It wasn't that. It was the defense. Put a decent D with how the offense was performing by the end of the season, and you're looking at a team with a real chance to compete for a Super Bowl, imo.

I strongly disagree. How can the number of points allowed 'lie' about a defense?
We were 11-5 with a QB who hadnt played since High School.

By the time the offense was playing the way it was playing at the end of the season we finished the year with 4 straight wins. Without tiebreakers knocking us out, as one of the only 11-5 teams ever to miss the playoffs, most of us felt we did have a real chance to compete for a SB.

 

[patsox23]

Two eyes, ability to watch games multiple times and the ability to analyze what I'm seeing. Hobbs would still be the best CB on the team (Springs not evaluated due to his not playing) going into the regular season.

Wow, ****y AND bizarrely off-track. But, then, you also seem to be under the impression that Bruschi and Vrabel, both of whom I LOVE, played well last year.