I look at this Patriots defense and see little seasoned leadership, plus little cohesion (esp. at cornerback and linebacker) coming out of the gate. Unless BB is keeping something under wraps, seems to me we're going to need every point the offense can muster. If anyone here can make a case for this defense being anything but average, I'd like to hear it.
I think you're being unduly pessimistic. I'm not expected the defense to carry the team, but "we're going to need every point the offense can muster" sounds pretty grim.
Here's my case for why the 2009 Pats defense could realistically be
much better than you predict:
1. The 2008 Patriots defense was above average in many respects, finishing 8th in points allowed and 10th in yards per game, despite a patchwork secondary and aging leadership. They got minimal contributions from the 3 veteran leaders of the defense, Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, and Mike Vrabel, all of whom are no longer with the team.
2. While the old guard had a wealth of experience and locker-room leadership, the on-field leadership of the defense was already in transition last season going into this one, with Jerod Mayo assuming the defensive headset and role of signal caller and defensive QB, and Brandon Meriweather stepping up in the secondary.
3. The achilles heel of the 2008 Pats defense was its red zone and 3rd down defense. Liabilities in the secondary forced the Pats to play a soft zone much of the season and to be less aggressive in attacking opposing offenses.
4. The 2009 Pats defense has markedly more speed and athleticism than the 2009 group. This has already been apparent in the preseason in terms of a markedly improved red zone defense, and a more attacking and pressuring defense.
5. The 2009 Pats defense is clearly a work in progress, with roughly 50 turnover in the LB and secondary. It would be astonishing to see "cohesion" when the full defensive roster (including the starting CBs) isn't even set yet, and when a large number of players are still not fully familiar with the defensive scheme and with each other. Over the course of the season we should expect to see considerable improvement in terms of cohesion.
6. Because the defense personnel are still adjusting to each other and to the system, much of what was used in the preseason was fairly vanilla. Once the personnel become more comfortable with the system and their respective roles, I expect to see a lot more wrinkles.
7. The defensive personnel provide perhaps the greatest potential flexibility yet seen under BB in terms of possible defensive schemes and styles. BB is a master and taking advantage of this kind of flexibility. I'm sure that over the course of the season we will see more of this.
The 2009 Pats defense probably won't be a top 5 defense, even though the talent is there, because we have so many young players and so many players still learning the system. But over the course of a 16 game season I could see us becoming a top 5 defense by the end of the season if things come together. There are no guarantees, and injuries or lack of development may result in an "average" defense. But I think there is reasonable grounds to be optimistic that our defense should be better than average at worst, and potentially borderline spectacular by the end of the season at best.
