Roster bubble and the cap

[Urgent]

There are a couple players on the bubble that have some significant cap impacts.

Of course teams can always find some place to restructure, but on the flip side we saw how it impacted the team during the Lawyer Milloy exit.

The players:
Alex Smith and Ben Watson both would appear behind Baker and Thomas, given production and injuries. However, Alex Smith carries and expensive $1.5mm salary with no bonus. Watson carries a $900K salary with $500K bonus. That means that it costs the Patriots $500K to release Watson, and nothing to release Smith. Releasing Smith saves $1.5mm.

Paris Lenon and Eric Alexander - Lenon, who has looked poor when on the field but mostly has been off it, has an $800K salary with no bonus, so the team saves $800K with his release. Alexander similarly has a $620K base with no bonus.

Shawn Crable, however, has a $570K bonus cost if he is cut. Rob Ninkovich, by contrast, has a $535K salary with no bonus. So releasing Crable over, say, Ninkovich costs the Patriots $570K.

Since the Patriots are closer to the total cap than most teams, this is noticeable. Won't drive decisions, but could be a factor on the margin.

Easy to release: Alex Smith, Paris Lenon, Eric Alexander, Rob Ninkovich
Hard to release: Ben Watson, Shawn Crable

Also note that, if LeVoir starts the season on PUP, that will cost the team another $500K+, the cost of replacing him on the roster with O'Callaghan or Britt.

 

[Synovia]

A good percentage of those players aren't "on the bubble".

 

[NE39]

Vets who make the minimum on 1 year deals with less than $40K in other compensation qualify for the Vet. Min. Salary Exemption. Thus, Lenon, Ninkovich and Alexander all have lower cap numbers than you stated.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Vets who make the minimum on 1 year deals with less than $40K in other compensation qualify for the Vet. Min. Salary Exemption. Thus, Lenon, Ninkovich and Alexander all have lower cap numbers than you stated.

Specifically, they count $460K + any signing bonus they receive.

 

[patchick]

Vets who make the minimum on 1 year deals with less than $40K in other compensation qualify for the Vet. Min. Salary Exemption. Thus, Lenon, Ninkovich and Alexander all have lower cap numbers than you stated.

FYI, I believe the vet minimum only applies to players with 5+ credited seasons. That would mean Ninkovich is definitely not eligible, and probably not Alexander, either.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

FYI, I believe the vet minimum only applies to players with 5+ credited seasons. That would mean Ninkovich is definitely not eligible, and probably not Alexander, either.

Per the Capping One, it's 4+ credited seasons.

Current players who qualify:
* Tully Banta-Cain
* Russ Hochstein
* Chris Hanson
* Nathan Hodel
* Billy Yates
* Tank Williams
* Vinnie Ciurciu
* Andrew Walter

 

[Urgent]

Vets who make the minimum on 1 year deals with less than $40K in other compensation qualify for the Vet. Min. Salary Exemption. Thus, Lenon, Ninkovich and Alexander all have lower cap numbers than you stated.

I'm not sure that Lenon's deal is veteran minimum. He has a $750K salary + $50K bonus that Miguel shows at $800K cap charge.

Players that qualify include:

Russ Hochstein - $745K salary + bonus -> $517K cap cost
Chris Hanson - $745K salary + bonus -> $517K cap cost
Billy Yates - $620K salary + bonus -> $517K cap cost
TBC - $620K salary + bonus -> $517K cap cost

Ninkovich's $535K salary is the same as his cap charge.
Alexander, for whatever reason, doesn't seem to qualify either, unless Miguel is wrong. His $620K shows as his cap charge.

If you are right about this, then Miguel's data is wrong. Until proven otherwise, I take Miguel's data as the best available.

 

[stinkypete]

I know a lot of people are expecting Watson to be cut, I don't see it. Watson has developed well enough as a blocker, IMO, that he is worth the cap charge even if Baker replaces him as the #1 recieving option, and this cap analysis helps prove that it doesn't make sense to cut the guy.

 

[mgteich]

IMHO, there are two players where cap effects could relevant to decision-making.

Smith just isn't worth $1.5M.

Faulk should be extended which would reduce his 2009 cap cost.

 

[signbabybrady]

I know a lot of people are expecting Watson to be cut, I don't see it. Watson has developed well enough as a blocker, IMO, that he is worth the cap charge even if Baker replaces him as the #1 recieving option, and this cap analysis helps prove that it doesn't make sense to cut the guy.

I am with you, his blocking has improved, and despite his iffy hands he is definitely a threat on the field that needs to be accounted for because there are not that many TEs with speed like his.

Baker might be the #1 guy but Watson still has value.

 

[Miguel]

Alexander, for whatever reason, doesn't seem to qualify either, unless Miguel is wrong. His $620K shows as his cap charge.

If you are right about this, then Miguel's data is wrong.

I was wrong. Alexander does have 4 credited seasons. Will correct my numbers.

 

[mgteich]

As an aside, did we every figure out whether Green's bonus has been paid or even if it is owed to him if he is traded?

I was wrong. Alexander does have 4 credited seasons. Will correct my numbers.

 

[Miguel]

As an aside, did we every figure out whether Green's bonus has been paid or even if it is owed to him if he is traded?

No, I have asked his agent twice about this. He has yet to respond.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

No, I have asked his agent twice about this. He has yet to respond.

Do you surmise that non response conveys a hint of information?

 

[patchick]

I was wrong. Alexander does have 4 credited seasons. Will correct my numbers.

Miguel, OT but I just noticed you seem to have Greg Lewis as signed through 2009 instead of 2011.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Smith just isn't worth $1.5M.

I'm hoping he is to someone. There's enough teams in need of a veteran TE that they might want to trade a low or conditional pick for him rather than risk losing him to another team.

 

[Patspsycho]

There are a couple players on the bubble that have some significant cap impacts.

Of course teams can always find some place to restructure, but on the flip side we saw how it impacted the team during the Lawyer Milloy exit.

The players:
Alex Smith and Ben Watson both would appear behind Baker and Thomas, given production and injuries. However, Alex Smith carries and expensive $1.5mm salary with no bonus. Watson carries a $900K salary with $500K bonus. That means that it costs the Patriots $500K to release Watson, and nothing to release Smith. Releasing Smith saves $1.5mm.

Paris Lenon and Eric Alexander - Lenon, who has looked poor when on the field but mostly has been off it, has an $800K salary with no bonus, so the team saves $800K with his release. Alexander similarly has a $620K base with no bonus.

Shawn Crable, however, has a $570K bonus cost if he is cut. Rob Ninkovich, by contrast, has a $535K salary with no bonus. So releasing Crable over, say, Ninkovich costs the Patriots $570K.

Since the Patriots are closer to the total cap than most teams, this is noticeable. Won't drive decisions, but could be a factor on the margin.

Easy to release: Alex Smith, Paris Lenon, Eric Alexander, Rob Ninkovich
Hard to release: Ben Watson, Shawn Crable

Also note that, if LeVoir starts the season on PUP, that will cost the team another $500K+, the cost of replacing him on the roster with O'Callaghan or Britt.

Those numbers are not adding up. Are you going by the prorated bonus amortization??

Watson's bonus is 526k, not 500.

Crable's bonus is spread over 4 years and he has already been paid for last year, so that is not the full amount.

See link below:

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2009 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page