Every year a surprise team makes the SB--Which one will it be?

[bostonia3333]

Every year it seems like a team comes out of nowhere and somehow limps into the Super Bowl. So who's going to be the Arizona Cardinals or Ny Giants of 2009? I doubt any "surprise" teams come out of the AFC.

I'll say Carolina makes it somehow. They have a good coach, a sick running game, a gutsy qb, a top 8 wr, and an athletic defense--they look like a 9-7 team on paper, which is probably what they will go to sneak into the playoffs.

I think Chicago has the pieces to make a great run, but their conservative coaching will spell doom for that squad.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Re: Every yr a surprise team makes the SB--Which one will it be?

The Lions....

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Atlanta. Dimitroff didn't have a great draft in April, but he is building that team the right way.

A second year leap by Ryan, thanks to having a real TE to throw to. Plus an improving defense and they are getting closer.

 

[ScottieC]

Re: Every yr a surprise team makes the SB--Which one will it be?

Every year it seems like a team comes out of nowhere and somehow limps into the Super Bowl. So who's going to be the Arizona Cardinals or Ny Giants of 2009? I doubt any "surprise" teams come out of the AFC.

I'll say Carolina makes it somehow. They have a good coach, a sick running game, a gutsy qb, a top 8 wr, and an athletic defense--they look like a 9-7 team on paper, which is probably what they will go to sneak into the playoffs.

I think Chicago has the pieces to make a great run, but their conservative coaching will spell doom for that squad.

Falcons.

So, I guess that means we will have a 40 Burger on them in week 3.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Every yr a surprise team makes the SB--Which one will it be?

It doesn't happen every year. 2004 both the Pats and Eagles were likely to get to the Super Bowl. 2006 both Chicago and Indy weren't surprises although I don't think Chicago was a favorite. In 2005, Pittsburgh was a surprise after they played like crap the first half of the year, but weren't much of a surprise if you asked anyone before the season started.

That said, if I was to pick a surprise team to go to the Super Bowl, I would probably pick Atlanta. It isn't going on a limb too much, but I think if there is a surprise, it will come from the NFC.

 

[Sicilian]

Re: Every yr a surprise team makes the SB--Which one will it be?

Thing about Atlanta is, it seems that all the teams that have surprising turnaround come back to Earth a little bit the next year.

My guess is the Seahawks. If Hasselbeck is healthy with TJ to throw to, they could make some noise.

 

[Bill B.]

Re: Every yr a surprise team makes the SB--Which one will it be?

I think the New Orleans Saints will be the "surprise team this year. They have a really good offence and can score a lot of points. It depends on if their defence can improve.

 

[borg]

Re: Every yr a surprise team makes the SB--Which one will it be?

Colts...maybe not a surprise, but under the radar on this homer board.
Reasons:
1. The douche GM fills holes via the draft better than most
2. New coach will have tricks competition won't expect
3. The Dungy effect. Despite their one SB victory, Dungy held this team back IMO. Just like Tampa after Dungy's exit, the Colts could bust through the ranks and get to the promised land

 

[Mike the Brit]

Re: Every yr a surprise team makes the SB--Which one will it be?

Colts...maybe not a surprise, but under the radar on this homer board.
Reasons:
1. The douche GM fills holes via the draft better than most
2. New coach will have tricks competition won't expect
3. The Dungy effect. Despite their one SB victory, Dungy held this team back IMO. Just like Tampa after Dungy's exit, the Colts could bust through the ranks and get to the promised land

OK. I was going to compliment everyone for not naming an AFC team ... Yes, the Colts are a good team (and they have the refs on their side). But I think New England are better.

Arizona apart, I don't think recent SB teams have been very surprising -- not favourites, perhaps, but not outsiders (Seahawks, Chicago, Giants were all decent teams by NFC standards at the time). If you want an outsider, I'd also go with a team from the NFC South (Saints, if forced).

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Every year it seems like a team comes out of nowhere and somehow limps into the Super Bowl. So who's going to be the Arizona Cardinals or Ny Giants of 2009? I doubt any "surprise" teams come out of the AFC.

I'll say Carolina makes it somehow. They have a good coach, a sick running game, a gutsy qb, a top 8 wr, and an athletic defense--they look like a 9-7 team on paper, which is probably what they will go to sneak into the playoffs.

I think Chicago has the pieces to make a great run, but their conservative coaching will spell doom for that squad.

i also think the redskins are an underrated team. their D is very good and they could be dangerous in the NFC if their offensive line holds up. jason campbell is only going to get better.

 

[patchick]

Re: Every yr a surprise team makes the SB--Which one will it be?

Colts...maybe not a surprise, but under the radar on this homer board.
Reasons:
1. The douche GM fills holes via the draft better than most
2. New coach will have tricks competition won't expect
3. The Dungy effect. Despite their one SB victory, Dungy held this team back IMO. Just like Tampa after Dungy's exit, the Colts could bust through the ranks and get to the promised land

The Colts are a major enigma at this point, IMO. Doubtless they'll be good, as they always are. But if you look up and down the Indy lineup the talent isn't exactly intimidating, especially given their current injuries. And a pre-ordained handoff to a longtime coordinator who's a carbon copy of the old coach always makes me nervous. I understand the "stay the course" mentality, but it's an awfully passive way to plot the future of the franchise.

As for the draft...who was their last slam-dunk draft success? Here's a handy reference: National Football League: NFL Draft History Full Draft - by Team

 

[Stokes]

I'd also say Seahawks. I can't see a real shocker in the AFC, as it would mean having to go through some powerhouse teams (NE, SD, Pitt, and even Indy, Tenn, Bal). I love the Seattle offense, and think their D is underrated.

 

[tombonneau]

Not sure how Carolina (#2 seed last year) and Atlanta (NFC West winner) qualify as "surprise" teams.

To me a surprise team is someone who didn't make the playoffs. I agree Seattle is a good candidate, but more likely the Bears.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Niners. I'm a huge fan of Singletary, and I think they'll have not only a much improved defense, but a devastating ground game and a serviceable aerial attack. If Crabtree had signed earlier, they'd be that much better, but I think they'll do well regardless.

 

[bostonia3333]

i also think the redskins are an underrated team. their D is very good and they could be dangerous in the NFC if their offensive line holds up. jason campbell is only going to get better.

I think the Redskins do have some pieces to make things interesting, the problem is their conservative coaching won't allow them to be competitive. The Redskins have an enticing team though---a good defense especially now with Haynesworth, a great rb, an awesome home field advantage, and a gamebreaker in S. Moss. This team reminds me of the Vikings in that the one glaring weakness that keeps them from making a serious SB push is the qb position. Lots of people are getting sick of the careful dink and dunk approach that Jason Campbell plays with .The Skins offensive game plan is way too conservative to be competitive in that division. Run, run, pass is not gonna get you anywhere in this pass happy league. Jim Zorn is very similar to Herm Edwards and Brad Childress---simply too afraid to throw the ball.

 

[aurakilla]

saints or texans haha, pats have played the last 3 nfc contenders dureing the regular season.............idk if they played the seahawks

 

[Liverpool_Patriot]

I'm gonna say the Cowboys; they're better than what people give them credit for. If they stay healthy, the Defence will be top 5 because of their pass rush along with the young corners Jenkins and Scandrick progression.

On the offensive side, I think they will be a lot more run-based and have the talent in the backfield with Barber, Felix and even Tashard Choice, not to mention a very good offensive line. I also think Roy Williams will do fine as he will be more motivated than he was last year with the Lions and that Miles Austin will step up. Also they have arguably the best TE in the league in Jason Witten (Personally, I think it's still Gonzalez). If Romo can keep his cool in December and make the playoffs then I think that the Cowboys are capable of a run at the Superbowl like the Cardinals or the Giants. I think the Cowboys are being underestimated.

Unfortuanately, they will lose to the Pats in the Superbowl

 

[farn]

Maybe the Seahawks - as has been mentionned - can get lucky / good at the end of the year. Weak division + vet QB + some talent scattered here and there...

I do see the AFC being one of NE-Indy-SD-Pitt. In the NFC, the Eagles or Giants should be able to go deep (but maybe Seattle has enough to upset one of them along the way, who knows ?).

 

[PatsFanSince74]

To me, the question is, how do we define "surprise team?" Is it a team that we like to dis (see Colts) or is it a team that we don't like (see Chargers)? Or is it a team that most people truly don't think has any reasonable chance of winning the SB this year? After last season, when the Cardinals made it against very long season-opening odds, I think the definition of "surprise" has to be limited to teams with truly long odds.

Here is somebody's current list of the odds to win the SB, posted somewhere or the other (not presented as definitive or 100% accurate, but only as a place to start). I really don't want to argue about the finer distinctions among the top ten or so teams, but I just use the list to say, OK let's look at the teams that bettors now say are in the bottom half of this list (below the top 16 and ties), which starts with the aforementioned Cardinals in this case. I could look at any of the teams in the top portion of the list and say, hey, if a few things break their way, they could pull it off. I don't think it's likely that the Jests or Broncos, for example, will do it, but stranger things have happened. Atlanta, New Orleans with Brees, Carolina...they are all teams that could do it.

Looking at only the teams in the bottom half of the list, I'd pick the Redskins as the team with long odds against them, who might just do it. Their offense is suspect, but they have beefed up an already superior Defense and it's a truism that Defense wins Championships. Playing in the toughest division in football will harden them. If they get a few breaks (Romo implodes again, McNabb shows his age, Eli shows that his ring truly was a fluke) and get to the Playoffs, I could see them as the Surprise team.

But, they would be a very big surprise. Which is the question posed by the OP.

New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1

Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago Bears 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston Texans 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle Seahawks 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1

 

[BigtimeColtsfans]

To me, the question is, how do we define "surprise team?" Is it a team that we like to dis (see Colts) or is it a team that we don't like (see Chargers)? Or is it a team that most people truly don't think has any reasonable chance of winning the SB this year? After last season, when the Cardinals made it against very long season-opening odds, I think the definition of "surprise" has to be limited to teams with truly long odds.

Here is somebody's current list of the odds to win the SB, posted somewhere or the other (not presented as definitive or 100% accurate, but only as a place to start). I really don't want to argue about the finer distinctions among the top ten or so teams, but I just use the list to say, OK let's look at the teams that bettors now say are in the bottom half of this list (below the top 16 and ties), which starts with the aforementioned Cardinals in this case. I could look at any of the teams in the top portion of the list and say, hey, if a few things break their way, they could pull it off. I don't think it's likely that the Jests or Broncos, for example, will do it, but stranger things have happened. Atlanta, New Orleans with Brees, Carolina...they are all teams that could do it.

Looking at only the teams in the bottom half of the list, I'd pick the Redskins as the team with long odds against them, who might just do it. Their offense is suspect, but they have beefed up an already superior Defense and it's a truism that Defense wins Championships. Playing in the toughest division in football will harden them. If they get a few breaks (Romo implodes again, McNabb shows his age, Eli shows that his ring truly was a fluke) and get to the Playoffs, I could see them as the Surprise team.

But, they would be a very big surprise. Which is the question posed by the OP.

New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1

Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago Bears 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston Texans 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle Seahawks 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1

those odds are just based on the way people are betting. They don't mean anything. Does anyone really think the Cowboys are the 2nd best team in the league?

And going by the usual "Colts are finished" vibe that happens every year around this time here, I'd say the Colts are going to be a surprise team for a lot of you.

Some of the breakdowns of the Colts around here are so homerish, Caldwell is going to be much different on Defense compared to Dungy first off. Someone on here said the Colt were "staying the course". If you don't know what you're talking about you shouldn't open your mouth. The D is going to be much more aggressive, the D line is totally changed and the attitude has changed, look at them bringing back Ed Johnson.

And for Mike the Brit or whatever your name was you said the Colts "have the refs on their side", I get this is a Pats board and it's fun to say things like that, but did you actually watch Colts games last year? Particularly the Jags@Indy game, the Colts/Packers game, or the PO game against the Chargers? The Colts lost the Jags game after a 4th down stop of the Jags, on a penalty. The Colts were penalized out the wazoo VS Green Bay. And the Chargers game? Did you see OT? Did you see all the penalties called on the Colts? Just going by those three games how do the "Colts have the refs on their side"? They lost two of those games directly because of penalties, including the PO game.

Like I said, I get this is Pats board and you guys hate the Colts, but come on, try to at least deal in reality if you're bashing the Colts. Every team gets some lucky calls, the Colts, the Pats, every team. That doesn't mean the "refs are on their side".