Who gets the pink slip in camp/preseason this year that no one expects?

[PATRIOT64]

Just about every season since BB has been here there is at least one player that had been a shocking surprise cut during camp or at least just prior to week 1

There is more than this but some notables that shocked many in the last decade by getting the axe in camp/preseason include...

Chad Jackson (BBs binky turned out to be a dinky)
Reche Caldwell (because he was leading the team at WR the year before)
Fernando Bryant (Biggest shock in 2008)
Lawyer Milloy (Didn't fit what BB wanted in a team player anymore)

and the list goes on (feel free to add any big names)....

This offseason we have already seen trades resulting in the departing of Eliis Hobbs and Mike Vrabel who virtually everyone penciled both in as week 1 starters this season so BB has had the early jump on shocks for 2009 and I doubt that shocking cuts are over yet.

My guesses as who may be on the bubble on the cutting block who practically no one thinks will are....

Jarvis Green - This would be the top of my shock list but Jarvis's play has declined steadily over the past few years and last year was poor with just 2 sacks unlike he was in his prime,He is 31 and to cut him would knock off 3 Million on the cap - If LeKevin Smith and/or Darryl Richard look really good in camp and preseason,Green may be on his way out.

Nick Kaczur - Probably the only starting OL from 2008 who is not a lock on this roster and O'Callahan,Levoir or even the rookie Vollmer may topple him off the top if Nick stuggles and he could be out the door.

Matt Gutierrez - No one can guarantee this team will keep 3 QBs on the roster and since the defensive side of the ball needs all the depth they can get,I can see QB down to 2 with Edelman and possibly Hoyer on the PS - Brady and O'Connell are in - Gutierrez may have seen his last year in Foxboro.

Paris Lenon - There is very light depth at ILB but Lenon who is coming from an 0-16 team has a lot to learn and prove he is capable of part time play with Bruschi and Co. - He could be this years surprise cut at ILB like Victor Hobson.

Ben Watson and/or David Thomas - Ben has been underachieving since his fantastic rookie season and dropped balls have been his biggest problem,David Thomas was a TE at Texas who had hands of gold and rarily dropped anything thrown his way - In the pros he has struggled to make plays and get on the field -
Alex Smith and Chris Baker were not just signed to fill the TE position - They are both here to finally give Watson and Thomas some serious competition at TE and if either underperforms and Smith and Baker do well then you can probably say goodbye to one of these two before fall arrives.

Two mentionable big longshots who could be cut but probably won't come close to getting axed are Tedy Bruschi and Shawn Springs - Age of these two vets could present problems with all the young talent we have on this team at both ILB and CB - Neither can be penciled in for September IMO.

Anyone I missed who could be surprise cuts? - Who is he and explain why.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Nick Kaczur - Probably the only starting OL from 2008 who is not a lock on this roster and O'Callahan,Levoir or even the rookie Vollmer may topple him off the top if Nick stuggles and he could be out the door.

He might lose his starting job, but he's unlikely to get cut. After all, they drafted Vollmer by going back to the well: Sea Bass' OL coach was also Kaczur's OL coach!

 

[farn]

Fernando... yikes - after that bulldozer style end zone fiasco, I'm not sure he was the biggest of shockers. Also in the non-shocker catefory would be Gutz not making the team. I am not saying he "won't make this team" à la David Patten, but seeing as how he was cut last season and basically came in as a safety valve, I'd not be too surprised to see him on the outside looking in.

I wonder if there will be a "shocker" this year. If Green gets cut - he would fit the bill. And I guess if I was forced into a choice, I'd go with him, due to contract related issues.

 

[PATRIOT64]

He might lose his starting job, but he's unlikely to get cut. After all, they drafted Vollmer by going back to the well: Sea Bass' OL coach was also Kaczur's OL coach!

I am not sure what cutting Nick would save against the cap,Patriots.com says Neal could save the team 3 Million if they cut him and find an adequate replacement but Stephen is our best guy on the right side and I doubt that would happen.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I am not sure what cutting Nick would save against the cap,Patriots.com says Neal could save the team 3 Million if they cut him and find an adequate replacement but Stephen is our best guy on the right side and I doubt that would happen.

Cutting/trading Kaczur would actually save ~$1.8M.

 

[Deus Irae]

I've mentioned Green as a possible cut, but that was a notion for me only if someone was brought in for the OLB spot. I don't know that he's safe, but I find this cut less likely now.

I expect that Kaczur and Watson will be starting for the Patriots, so I would certainly be surprised if either was cut.

Gutz wouldn't surprise me if he were cut. He was cut last year, after all. If Hoyer shows any kind of promise or another QB shakes loose, or if BB just decides to go with 2 QBs, Gutz will be looking for another line of work.

Springs got too much of a contract to get cut, and I can't see Bruschi getting the axe unless a replacement is found first. As for Lenon, I'm not really sure that he'd qualify as a surprise.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

I'm going with Jarvis Green because there isn't anybody to replace him.

 

[stinkypete]

Cutting/trading Kaczur would actually save ~$1.8M.

Finances usually are a factor in these cuts, unless the guy is a total bust like Chad Jackson. Kaczur is valuable on this roster for $1.8 million. Neal, especially with his recent injury history, may carry less value to the roster at $3, especially if Orhenberger can contribute as a rookie as some expect. Koppen could be a surprise purge if there were a dip in his production, he makes a pretty penny for a center. The rookies will go a long way to shaping the offensive line.

Green is a sensible cut using this logic, though Belichick might value defensive line a little too much to pull that trigger. Bruschi might be a little rich against a tight cap, though it's sacrilege to suggest, I think his veteran presence is too valuable with so many young LBs being counted on.

I could see Bodden cut in camp if he stinks it up a la Fernando Bryant, not out of the question.

Sammy Morris, if he loses a step, is a risk for a cut, especially if Maroney or BJGE step it up in camp. I suppose even Maroney could get the axe if he is totally ineffective or doesn't completely heal from injury.

 

[JSn]

Thomas (surprise, though... not really) and O'Callahan.

 

[jmt57]

I've seen Stephen Neal's name mentioned a few times this off-season, but that's one potential cut that I would be second guessing should it end up happening. I just think back to the difference in the team's performance when Neal is in the game and healthy versus when he is out over the last 17 games. The Pats would have to be desperate in search of cap money to sign or extend somebody if Neal is cut regardless of how well another player does in training camp.

 

[maverick4]

Watson or Thomas are gone. We have too many TE's. The one who stays will be the one with the better value contract or willing to do a better future deal.

We also have 5 running backs right now.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Watson or Thomas are gone. We have too many TE's. The one who stays will be the one with the better value contract or willing to do a better future deal.

We also have 5 running backs right now.

If the Pats have to cut one of the two, I'm pretty sure it's Thomas. Not only did he injure himself in 2007, but literally cost the Pats the game in Indy last season. Although Watson may have a case of the drops, he doesn't do stupid things like Thomas. I'd be pretty pissed if the Pats chose Thomas over Watson.

 

[TimU]

Well, nobody would expect Fred Taylor or Joey Galloway to get cut, but these players are both very old for their positions. In fact, they may well be the oldest RB and WR in NFL training camps this summer (I don't know). Moreover both players were injured last year and had their worst years ever. I think the chance that neither of these guys goes the distance with the Pats this year is greater than you might think .

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If the Pats have to cut one of the two, I'm pretty sure it's Thomas. Not only did he injure himself in 2007, but literally cost the Pats the game in Indy last season. Although Watson may have a case of the drops, he doesn't do stupid things like Thomas.

Yes, that's entirely his fault.

Seriously, though, remember that they saw enough in Thomas that in 2007 they felt he was worth holding a roster spot for him to get healthy. And they could have easily cut him already if they wanted to, but they haven't.

 

[jmt57]

Watson or Thomas are gone. We have too many TE's. The one who stays will be the one with the better value contract or willing to do a better future deal.

We also have 5 running backs right now.

That's my guess with the TE position too; I'm inclined to believe Thomas is the odd man out. Baker is an automatic to make the team based on the way his contract is structured. As I recall of the four tight ends Alex Smith is the one that would provide the most cap space and also create the smallest cap hit if he was cut.

The training camp roster battle for the running backs is intriguing. All have question marks due to age or previous health and durability questions. It will be interesting to see how many running backs BB keeps on the roster, and also how they are handled throughout the year. Will Faulk return punts, and will Maroney return kickoffs? Will one running back get the bulk of the carries one week depending on the matchup, and to help him get in the rhythm of the game? Or will backs be rotated in and out through an entire game to keep them all warmed up, yet also fresh all game long?

 

[PATRIOT64]

Watson or Thomas are gone. We have too many TE's. The one who stays will be the one with the better value contract or willing to do a better future deal.

We also have 5 running backs right now.

One thing Watson and Thomas and even Devree have that Smith and Baker do not have is EXPERIENCE within the Patriots offensive game plans.

Whether that matters or not is to be seen - Smith or Baker could get cut as well if one has problems adapting to the Patirots way of offense,If this were the case I would think Smith would get cut before Baker since Baker has had a yearly sideline view of the Patriots offense twice a season,while Smith only sees them on film since TB has not played NE much.

IMO if this were a horse race,The Odds of chances to get cut at TE would be

Chris Baker - 70-1 (best blocker of all our TEs - like a Dan Graham - A lock)
Ben Watson - 20-1 (hard to overlook he has talent but can he find it?)
Alex Smith - 10-1 (Fine signing but will he adjust to a totally new offense?)
David Thomas -5-1 (Has shown little to nothing,A dissapointment so far)
Tyson DeVree -EVEN (A likely cut unless he has a major great camp showing)

 

[Bartmac36]

these are all possibilities...

Watson/Thomas/Baker- None of these TEs are anywhere close to guarenteed a spot...yes even Baker whose stats steadily declined in NY...

Taylor/Maroney- Age is the dagger for Taylor/ Ineffectiveness the dagger for Maroney...

Bruschi/Lenon- Age and questionable skills could harm these guys...

Galloway/Lewis- Injuries and age can end Galloway's time here, while being a career 5th receiver could hurt Lewis

 

[signbabybrady]

I've seen Stephen Neal's name mentioned a few times this off-season, but that's one potential cut that I would be second guessing should it end up happening. I just think back to the difference in the team's performance when Neal is in the game and healthy versus when he is out over the last 17 games. The Pats would have to be desperate in search of cap money to sign or extend somebody if Neal is cut regardless of how well another player does in training camp.

I agree I would be pretty shocked to see him cut. I am always amazed at how far up field he continues to block when he pulls. And I think his and Mankins abilities to pull really help out the screen pass and with only one of them we could trend toward throwing screens in one direction more prominant than the other.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

David Thomas -5-1 (Has shown little to nothing,A dissapointment so far)

On the flip side:

2006—two first-round draft picks ahead of him
2007—injured, they rush him back to the field, he gets re-injured (not his fault)
2008—new QB; it may be he just couldn't develop a rhythm with Cassel; it's not like he couldn't catch the ball (just look at his catch from KC)

 

[PATRIOT64]

these are all possibilities...

Watson/Thomas/Baker- None of these TEs are anywhere close to guarenteed a spot...yes even Baker whose stats steadily declined in NY...

Taylor/Maroney- Age is the dagger for Taylor/ Ineffectiveness the dagger for Maroney...

Bruschi/Lenon- Age and questionable skills could harm these guys...

Galloway/Lewis- Injuries and age can end Galloway's time here, while being a career 5th receiver could hurt Lewis

No way Lewis (if he makes the roster) will be any lower on the depth chart than 4th WR - If he shows more speed and agility than Old man Galloway in TC then maybe,just maybe Lewis passes Galloway at the 3rd spot of WR

You really think Alex Smith has more of a chance to stay than Chris Baker?