An Early Projection

[Fencer]

I will give one caveot that I may be wrong about what the minimum rookie cap hit is

Well, yes. Looking at Miguel's page and seeing salaries well below your quoted figure might have been your first clue.

Using Google would have quickly revealed to you that rookie minimum salary is $310,000 next year.

Hodel is a veteran so eventhough he signed for $750k and a $50k roster bonus, his cap hit is $519k and if he is cut the whole $50k hits ths year's cap.

That's pretty garbled, but you are close to correct in that his cap hit, as per Miguel, is only $517,280, and what can be saved off the cap by cutting him is $57,280 less than that. I was forgetting about that twist in the CBA.

So the cap difference between the two is only $150K, plus whatever acceleration there is on Ingram's bonus. Surely that's under $200K total.

 

[patsfan55]

He does say as of April 26th. Taylor ain't on the roster right now.

I'm praying for Taylor in, TBC out

 

[Rob0729]

Well, yes. Looking at Miguel's page and seeing salaries well below your quoted figure might have been your first clue.

Using Google would have quickly revealed to you that rookie minimum salary is $310,000 next year.



That's pretty garbled, but you are close to correct in that his cap hit, as per Miguel, is only $517,280, and what can be saved off the cap by cutting him is $57,280 less than that. I was forgetting about that twist in the CBA.

So the cap difference between the two is only $150K, plus whatever acceleration there is on Ingram's bonus. Surely that's under $200K total.

So I was slightly off with the numbers because I confused the veteran minimum with the rookie minimum, but my overall point stands. The Pats probably save about $100-150k by cutting Hodel (maybe less) when you factor in the bonus. If the Pats are making personnel decisions based on saving $100-150k against the cap, then they got more problems than determining who is going to be the long snapper.

 

[Fencer]

MG’s ROSTER AS OF APRIL 26 6:24

OFFENSE (25)
QB (3) Brady, O'Connell, Gutierrez
RB/FB (5) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney, BJGE
WR (5) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Tate
TE (3) Watson, Baker, Thomas
OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, Ornberger

DEFENSE (25)
DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace. Smith
OLB (5) Thomas, Crable, Banta-Cain, Woods, Redd
ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, McKenzie
CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (4) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Williams

SPECIALISTS (3)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Ingram

WAITING FOR INJURIES
Hodel, Spann, Ventrone, Slater, Richardson, Yates, O’Callaghan, Yates, Ruud, Alexander, Aiken

Particular vulnerabilities IMO:

Tate to injury
Gutt to another position
BJE to another position or a veteran blocking FB
Levoir to fellow vet reserves
Ingram to Hodel
Williams to younger guys

And by the way, you have Yates listed twice

 

[mgteich]

I agree with all your possibilities. In fact, I favor upgrading Gut and BJGE with veteran free agents.

There is always injury risks and players injured at the time of the draft who may or may not be ready for the season.

I would be surprised to see healthy Tank Williams cut to make room for younger players. I presume that you mean Spann or Ventrone. We really don't have a need to make the secondary any younger. If he is cut, it will be because one of them is more valuable. I just don't see it, but then that is what camp is for.

I like LeVoir and Ingram, but am certainly fine with veterans instead.

Particular vulnerabilities IMO:

Tate to injury
Gutt to another position
BJE to another position or a veteran blocking FB
Levoir to fellow vet reserves
Ingram to Hodel
Williams to younger guys

And by the way, you have Yates listed twice

 

[Fencer]

I would be surprised to see healthy Tank Williams cut to make room for younger players. I presume that you mean Spann or Ventrone. We really don't have a need to make the secondary any younger. If he is cut, it will be because one of them is more valuable. I just don't see it, but then that is what camp is for.

Or Slater or whoever.

Chung could well fill the specific quasi-LB safety role that Rodney filled so well even when he was slipping otherwise, and that Williams is meant for. If so, Williams might not have much of a role otherwise.

 

[StraightCashHomey81]

Projected 53 Man Roster
QB: Brady, O'Connel, Guitterez (3)
No way Bill keeps less than 3 after Tom's Injury last year.
RB: Morris, Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, BJGE (5)
Injury histories of top 4 keeps BJGE on roster
TE: Baker, Smith, Watson (3)
Hochstein's FB ability allows for only 3 TEs w/ no FB.
WR: Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Aiken, Edelman (6)
Edelman's versatitlity, return ability, potential give him roster spot over Slater.
OL: Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Vollmer, Ohrnberger, LeVoir, Hochstein (9)
Tough position, lots of depth and wildcards
DL: Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, Brace, Wright, Le Kevin Smith (6)
I don't think we keep 7 DLs, and Green's Average season last year and high cap number give him the ax.
ILB: Mayo, Bruschi, Guyton, Lenon, Ciurcui (5)
Alexander finally goes, Ciurcui is the new Izzo.
OLB: Thomas, Woods, Crable, Redd (4)
TBC presence and ST's ability can't overcome Redd's potential.
CB: Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite, Butler (5)
Easiest position unless Richardson squeezez in as a 6th CB and outplays McGowan on ST.
S: Sanders, Meriweather, Chung, McGowan (4)
Another easy position, with the only real battle being McGown v. Richardson v. Spann.
ST: Gostkowski, Hanson, Ingram (3)
Ingram is cheaper, better than Hodel (just a guess no one can really judge snappers)
Last 5 in: Redd(49), Ciurcui(50), Hochstein(51), BJGE(52), Edelman(53)
Last 6 out: Ventrone(54), Green(55), Yates(56), TBC(57), Thomas(58),
Britt(59)
Practice Squad: (If everybody's available): G. Bussey, M. Pryor, D. Richard, J. Porter, R. Ortiz, E. Kettani, B. Hoyer, J.Love.

 

[DaBruinz]

DaBruinz Roster Guess:

OFFENSE (23)
QB (3) Brady, O'Connell, Hoyer
RB/FB (4) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney
WR (4) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis,
TE (3) Watson, Baker, Smith
OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, Ornberger

DEFENSE (24)
DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace, Smith
OLB (5) Thomas, Crable, Woods, Redd
ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Lenon
CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (4) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Williams,

SPECIALISTS (6)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Ingram
ST (3) Slater, Edelman, Ciurciu/Banta-Cain.

RESERVE: McKenzie, Tate

WAITING FOR INJURIES
Hodel, Spann, Ventrone, Thomas, Richardson, Yates, O’Callaghan, Alexander, Aiken, BJGE, Gutierrez

P.S. - Ruud is gone so he can't be on the "waiting for injuries" section.

 

[DaBruinz]

Particular vulnerabilities IMO:

Tate to injury
Gutt to another position
BJE to another position or a veteran blocking FB
Levoir to fellow vet reserves
Ingram to Hodel
Williams to younger guys

And by the way, you have Yates listed twice

How is LeVoir vulnerable? LeVoir went from the Rams Practice Squad to being the Swing tackle for the Pats. He more than held his own and, imho, will push both Light and Kaczur. He's way ahead of Britt and O'Callaghan.

Gutt is battling Hoyer.
Williams won't be vulnerable.

TBC is vulnerable, imho.
I don't see BJGE making this team. He'll probably be on emergency speed dial.

 

[Feep50]

DaBruinz Roster Guess:

OFFENSE (23)
QB (3) Brady, O'Connell, Hoyer
RB/FB (4) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney
WR (4) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis,
TE (3) Watson, Baker, Smith
OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, Ornberger

DEFENSE (24)
DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace, Smith
OLB (5) Thomas, Crable, Woods, Redd
ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Lenon
CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (4) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Williams,

SPECIALISTS (6)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Ingram
ST (3) Slater, Edelman, Ciurciu/Banta-Cain.

RESERVE: McKenzie, Tate

WAITING FOR INJURIES
Hodel, Spann, Ventrone, Thomas, Richardson, Yates, O’Callaghan, Alexander, Aiken, BJGE, Gutierrez

P.S. - Ruud is gone so he can't be on the "waiting for injuries" section.

This looks like an NFL team that will win 12+ games and be a threat to win it all..... The good times continue to roll in New England!

 

[PatsBoy12]

This looks like an NFL team that will win 12+ games and be a threat to win it all..... The good times continue to roll in New England!

Feep, it definitely does look like a talented team.

 

[Feep50]

Feep, it definitely does look like a talented team.

Indeed it does PatsBoy12! Looks like a better team than our SB teams. We just have to find, mine, delve for, acquire, sign the new Willie McGinist! It's the only real glaring weakness or hole that I can see. Especially if Bodden and Springs play as good as we hope they can.

 

[cstjohn17]

Bored stiff, total guesses 6/27

Roster analysis
1) Deep roster - top 5 roster in the league
2) Tough battle for final spot - 10-15 players fighting for the final 3-4 spots
3) Pass rush from OLB -concerned about pass rush
4) ILB run stopping - all undersized, concerned about ability to stuff the run, especially in the run heavy AFC East
5) Secondary is much improved

OFFENSE (24)
QB (2) Brady, O'Connell
---Gutierrez or Hoyer as 3rd QB on the practice squad
RB/FB (4) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney
--- BJGE highly replaceable, mild shocker would be Maroney getting cut
WR (5) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Aiken, Lewis
--- Lewis may be a surprise cut, Tate to either PUP or IR
TE (4) Watson, Baker, Thomas, Smith
--- surprise cut in this group may be Thomas, look out for the 4 TE set!
OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, Ornberger
--- good depth on the O Line

DEFENSE (26)
DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace, Smith
--- no issue here
OLB (4) Thomas, Crable, Woods, Redd
--- TBC gets the axe, unproven unit
ILB (5) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Lenon, Ciurciu
--- McKenzie to IR, undersized unit
CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (5) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Slater, Ventrone
-- secondary is solid

SPECIALISTS (3)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Hodel

 

[patriotscpfc]

^

That is all but my 53.

I tried to fit Spann in instead of Thomas and I think I had 3 QB's, but I would gladly give one of them up and have Le Kevin Smith who is #53 on my roster.

Only other change was Ingram, not Hodel. Only because he was a 5th rounder.

 

[cstjohn17]

Pretty much the same as I thought a month ago.. updated July 27, 2009

OFFENSE (24)
QB (2) Brady, O'Connell
RB/FB (4) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney
WR (5) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Aiken, Lewis
TE (4) Watson, Baker, Thomas, Smith
OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, Ornberger

DEFENSE (26)
DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace, Smith
OLB (4) Thomas, Crable, Woods, Redd
ILB (5) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Lenon, Ciurciu
CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (5) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Slater, Ventrone

SPECIALISTS (3)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Hodel

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Pretty much the same as I thought a month ago.. updated July 27, 2009

OFFENSE (24)
QB (2) Brady, O'Connell
RB/FB (4) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney
WR (5) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Aiken, Lewis
TE (4) Watson, Baker, Thomas, Smith
OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, Ornberger

DEFENSE (26)
DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace, Smith
OLB (4) Thomas, Crable, Woods, Redd
ILB (5) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Lenon, Ciurciu
CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (5) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Slater, Ventrone

SPECIALISTS (3)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Hodel

If you're right, that's about 15 new faces from last year.(highlighted in red)
Does anyone have the stats for what has been the average turnover in the Belichick era???IIRC it's about 11 or 20% of the roster so this would be in that range...just a little bit higher

 

[patfanken]

OFFENSE (25)
QB (2) Brady, O'Connell
RB/FB (4) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney
WR (5) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Aiken, Lewis
TE (4) Watson, Baker, Thomas, Smith
OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer, Britt/OCallahan/Yates
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Johnson, Ornberger

I agree with the 2 QBs and 4 TEs, which assumes they can all play special teams, along with HB/FB. On the OL I add one of Britt/OCallahan at OT or Yates as a back up G, depending on how they prioritize positions. and my surprise cut is Hockstein, who is replaced by a better C in vet Al Johnson.

DEFENSE (25)
DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace, Smith
OLB (4) Thomas, Crable, Woods, Alexander
ILB (5) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Lenon,
CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (5) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Slater, TWilliams

On D You loose a player to the OL so Ciurciu goes back to grad school at BC and waits for a phone call. Ray does the same as Williams gets the call to be the 4th S. Slater is still more a special teams guy, and Ventrone may take his spot if he doesn't pick up his game.

SPECIALISTS (3)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Hodel

This excercise makes you realize how many really good football players ARE NOT going to make this club, even though they SHOULD be in the NFL

 

[RobertWeathers]

OFFENSE (25)
QB (2) Brady, O'Connell
RB/FB (4) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney
WR (5) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Aiken, Lewis
TE (4) Watson, Baker, Thomas, Smith
OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer, Britt/OCallahan/Yates
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Johnson, Ornberger

I agree with the 2 QBs and 4 TEs, which assumes they can all play special teams, along with HB/FB. On the OL I add one of Britt/OCallahan at OT or Yates as a back up G, depending on how they prioritize positions. and my surprise cut is Hockstein, who is replaced by a better C in vet Al Johnson.

DEFENSE (25)
DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace, Smith
OLB (4) Thomas, Crable, Woods, Alexander
ILB (5) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Lenon,
CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (5) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Slater, TWilliams

On D You loose a player to the OL so Ciurciu goes back to grad school at BC and waits for a phone call. Ray does the same as Williams gets the call to be the 4th S. Slater is still more a special teams guy, and Ventrone may take his spot if he doesn't pick up his game.

SPECIALISTS (3)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Hodel

This excercise makes you realize how many really good football players ARE NOT going to make this club, even though they SHOULD be in the NFL

Agree 100% on your roster. Only thing that I am wondering about as the team gets closer to the 1st game of the season.

 

[sdh7711]

Throw mine into the mix precamp. this of course barring major injuries

OFFENSE (26)
QB (3) Brady, O'Connell, Gutierrez
RB/FB (5) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney, BJGE
WR (5) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Aiken (Tate to the PUP)
TE (3) A Smith, Baker, Thomas (coin flip Watson vs Thomas)
OT (5) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer, Britt
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, Al Johnson

DEFENSE (24)
DL (6) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Wright, Brace, Smith (Green vs Smith)
OLB (5) Thomas, Crable, Banta-Cain, Woods, Redd
ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Lenon, Ciurciu
CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (4) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

SPECIALISTS (3)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Ingram

Practice Squad
Edel, Slater (if hes not signed), Ohrnberger, Bussey, Titus, Pryor/Richard, Craig, Robertson...if Slater goes then Wendell.