The future of the Patriots 'D' and the 3-4 tipping point

[livinginthe past]

One of the storylines of the draft was the teams making the transition to the 3-4 defense - Denver, Green Bay etc.

Bill Belichick is a guy who obviously regards himself as someone who is 'ahead of the curve'.

This makes me wonder when the Patriots will move away from the 3-4 and back to a 4-3 formation - or maybe something more (r)evolutionary.

Teams like Pittsburgh and New England made a killing in the early part of this decade at draft time - being able to select so-called 'tweeners' for their OLB position in later rounds - due to the fact 4-3 teams didn't value them so highly.

Now we see a shift on 2 fronts - opposition offenses figuring out the 3-4 and more teams moving to the 3-4 - the latter will surely only hasten the former.

When does the 'tipping point' arrive whereby its more beneficial, and better value, to draft/recruit guys who fit the 4-3 better than the 3-4 - 2010, 2011?

As noted by many draft day prognosticators - there are only so many 3-4 NT tackles out there.

I realise that there is more than just a single 3-4 defence and that different guys suit different schemes better but, looking ahead, the playing field and talent base are going to become more stretched as time goes by.

Any thoughts?

 

[maverick4]

There are too many teams who continue to use the 4-3 and will for the future.
There wouldn't be a shift to becoming a 4-3 team, but more teams using 3-4 will remove the draft or FA advantage they used to enjoy, but it won't be a disadvantage.

 

[Pats726]

The team has more players that are suited for 3-4 defense...so it will be the base for teh future..will they use MORE 4-3?? maybe...maybe the big nickel 3 safeties?? possibly...who knows...

 

[ivanfears]

The team has more players that are suited for 3-4 defense...so it will be the base for teh future..will they use MORE 4-3?? maybe...maybe the big nickel 3 safeties?? possibly...who knows...

anything would be better than that defense last year, horrible in red zone, and third down , come to think of it it was that defense that couldnt stop the giants in 07, and really was soft coming down the strech in 07, ie eagles,ravens and giant regular season games, and go back to 06 that defense cost us another superbowl when they couldnt stop manning and the colts, over all that defense the last 3 years has not been something to be proud of, something has to change

 

[Spiral]

Teams like Pittsburgh and New England made a killing in the early part of this decade at draft time - being able to select so-called 'tweeners' for their OLB position in later rounds - due to the fact 4-3 teams didn't value them so highly.

I know this sounds like it should be true, but how many of these type players have the Patriots actually drafted since BB became coach? I can think of TBC, who I don't think the Patriots make a killing on. Who else?

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

The Pat's D will continue to rebuild and evolve. It has to. I for one look positively at the current defense, but time and the season will tell.

It's a shame, but the defense has had one key negative game in each of the last three years that cost them dearly.
1. Unable to close out the Colts in '06 AFCCG. Couldn't go to SB
2. Unable to stop Giants in '07 SB. Cost them a moment in history
3. Unable to stop Jets in OT game in '08. Cost them the division and a playoff berth.

 

[jmt57]

I think one thing to keep an eye on with the talks of extending the regular season schedule is the possibility of expanding the size of the roster as well. That to me could be a catalyst for a change in philosophy of the defense.

Due to the current size of the roster, Bill Belichick places a premium on versatility - specifically players who can fill more than one role or can play multiple positions. Expand the roster size and I could see a shift to more specialists, which could lead to more sub packages designed either for a specific down and distance, or for a specific team and the type of offense they run.

That may not be the tipping point that signals the end of the 3-4 based defense, but it could alter the defensive formations that we see in any given game in the near future.

 

[pats_premi]

anything would be better than that defense last year, horrible in red zone, and third down , come to think of it it was that defense that couldnt stop the giants in 07, and really was soft coming down the strech in 07, ie eagles,ravens and giant regular season games, and go back to 06 that defense cost us another superbowl when they couldnt stop manning and the colts, over all that defense the last 3 years has not been something to be proud of, something has to change

I was thinking of the same thing. As a Patriot's fan it is hard to admit that BB's defense can be this bad.

 

[RayClay]

I know this sounds like it should be true, but how many of these type players have the Patriots actually drafted since BB became coach? I can think of TBC, who I don't think the Patriots make a killing on. Who else?

They haven't.

They have a great nose tackle, which is really what you need for a 3-4.

The DE/OLB tweener picked up on the cheap and converted to successful starter is a myth. Woods would be the first. All the players who have started at linebacker have been third, second and first round picks, except Colvin, who we acquired after two 10.5 sack seasons.

Some have been college linebackers, some played both in college and some were converted to LB in the NFL.

You draft or acquire them same as any other position. I think the discipline is the hardest part, as college LBs in a 4-3 chase plays, while we train players to never chase a play.

Career LBs like Phifer and Seau have adapted. I think young players want to go after tackles and would therefore struggle.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I see no drift away from the current base 3-4 and no reason to expect one in the near term.

With the addition of Brace and Prior, plus reports claiming Wilfork is happy with the pace and scope of the negotiations to date, it would appear the Pats' NT issues were carefully considered and have been addressed for the near term.

The strength of the DL pool and the questions surrounding the LBs has once again fooled some into seeing a base 4-3 in NE's future. BB has shown time and time again that he puts a great deal of emphasis on building his D-line "first," and this offseason reflects no change in that philosophy. The number of teams moving to a base 3-4 may have one effect on this preseason, with the strength at the back of the DL roster, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one trade to grab one of NE's castoffs 'before' they hit the waiver wire.

 

[spacecrime]

I know this sounds like it should be true, but how many of these type players have the Patriots actually drafted since BB became coach? I can think of TBC, who I don't think the Patriots make a killing on. Who else?

Good point.

The switch to 4-3 because everyone else is going to 3-4 is ESPN-think.

BB will use the formation he believes will give him the best chance to win. He will then sign FAs and draft people to fit what he wants to do.

But so many people are thinking "PATS are 3-4" when that is so false. THey play a LOT of 4-3. I don't think they lined up with DE-NT-DE, OLB-ILB-ILB-OLB one single time in the Philly superbowl. It was ALL 4-3 or sometimes a 5-man DL.

The one think BB does is use BIG DE's. Seymour played NT his rookie year, and sometimes DT in a four man front. Warren was a basic NT-style DT who BB moved to DE. Wright and Wilfork and Smith are NTs who often play DE.

Availability of big DTs who will play DE for the Pats will always be plentiful. THe hardest job will be selecting one who will transition to the pros, not finding one.

Likewise, there is no shortage of lighter college DEs who fit BB's profile of an ideal OLB. There were 8-10 of them in this last draft. BB took NONE of them. I don't care how many teams are looking for those guys. It won't matter because BB isn't drafting them anyway.

The Pats and Colts and Steelers and Ravens will continue to do well year after year because they evaluate talent well. Maybe we can add KC to this mix, but there are plenty of players every year who are difference makers that were passed by every team at least once in the draft, and plenty of first round picks who go nowhere. The key is to hit on your top picks more often than you miss, and have one or two late round picks/UDFAs make the team most years. The Pats do that well.

Don't worry about the lack of players because other teams are going 3-4.

 

[satz]

We keep drafting DT who are taller to play end in our 3-4 or a NT type player .Yet every one thinks we will be base 4-3 .

tell me that when we draft a 280 lb DE who can only play DE in a 4-3.

 

[Deus Irae]

Teams like Pittsburgh and New England made a killing in the early part of this decade at draft time - being able to select so-called 'tweeners' for their OLB position in later rounds - due to the fact 4-3 teams didn't value them so highly.

A lot of people seem to be operating under this misconception. It's a markedly different approach under Belichick than it was under Parcells and the Parcells model that yielded a grand total of ZERO Super Bowl victories.

In the 4 Parcells years, the Patriots drafted at least one linebacker in every draft, and each year featured a linebacker drafted in the 3rd round or higher: Slade, McGinest, Johnson, Bruschi. In contrast, the only D-lineman taken in the 3rd round or higher was Ervin Collier. This system netted both Bruschi and Johnson for the Patriots, and got the team to a Super Bowl, so I wouldn't call it a failure, but it was certainly not the success that the Belichick approach has been. In fact, it hasn't been as successful in any of the Parcells stops during the salary cap era as the Belichick approach has been.

Belichick has taken a different approach, and it's yielded 3 Super Bowl Victories, 4 Super Bowl appearances, 5 AFCCG appearances and a 16-0 regular season. What Belichick has done is draft just the opposite of Parcells: DL is the prime focus and linebackers are drafted in late rounds. The starters under BB have been veterans from around the league, and the low round draft picks (and UDFA) have filled out the roster depth. It's been an absolutely brilliant strategy, but it's had one problem: injuries. As I pointed out in another thread comparing the Patriots plan for linebackers with that of the Steelers, the Steelers have been amazingly fortunate with injuries. In his first year as a Patriot, Colvin missed just 2 games fewer than all the Steelers' starters have missed from that same season to the present. In fact, if you add up his 2003 and 2007 games missed due to injury, Colvin alone has missed more games than the entire starting linebacking corps of the Steelers since 2003.

The Patriots have their NT. What they need is to be able to bring in linebackers and not have them get injured as often as they have done. Concussions, strokes, hip injuries and the like have shortened careers and lessened playing ability, and that's been the problem. I do wonder if there will be enough veterans who can make the 4-3/3-4 switch to successfully fill out all the new 3-4 rosters in the next few seasons, but I also trust Belichick to generally be able to spot those most likely to make the transition.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The one think BB does is use BIG DE's. Seymour played NT his rookie year, and sometimes DT in a four man front. Warren was a basic NT-style DT who BB moved to DE. Wright and Wilfork and Smith are NTs who often play DE.

Minor quibble, but Wright is a DE—6'4", 295#—who often plays NT. (He might be a good 4-3 DT, though.)

 

[NoCal Patriot]

First offf ,I don't believe the notion that The Patriots are solely a 3-4 Defense.Bill has always played with flexablilty to suit the situation and We'll continue to do this.What I've seen is 2 man fronts ,3 man fronts ,4 man fronts ,and even no man fronts.If Bill thought that He needed 7 Defensive Linemen,He'd play them.I think that You are overthinking this premise.

 

[Pats726]

anything would be better than that defense last year, horrible in red zone, and third down , come to think of it it was that defense that couldnt stop the giants in 07, and really was soft coming down the strech in 07, ie eagles,ravens and giant regular season games, and go back to 06 that defense cost us another superbowl when they couldnt stop manning and the colts, over all that defense the last 3 years has not been something to be proud of, something has to change

I think u are getting the design of the defense mixed up with the execution...but that is OK...

 

[JoeSixPat]

One of the storylines of the draft was the teams making the transition to the 3-4 defense - Denver, Green Bay etc.

Bill Belichick is a guy who obviously regards himself as someone who is 'ahead of the curve'.

This makes me wonder when the Patriots will move away from the 3-4 and back to a 4-3 formation - or maybe something more (r)evolutionary.

Teams like Pittsburgh and New England made a killing in the early part of this decade at draft time - being able to select so-called 'tweeners' for their OLB position in later rounds - due to the fact 4-3 teams didn't value them so highly.

Now we see a shift on 2 fronts - opposition offenses figuring out the 3-4 and more teams moving to the 3-4 - the latter will surely only hasten the former.

When does the 'tipping point' arrive whereby its more beneficial, and better value, to draft/recruit guys who fit the 4-3 better than the 3-4 - 2010, 2011?

As noted by many draft day prognosticators - there are only so many 3-4 NT tackles out there.

I realise that there is more than just a single 3-4 defence and that different guys suit different schemes better but, looking ahead, the playing field and talent base are going to become more stretched as time goes by.

Any thoughts?

I think you've raised a very good topic worthy of exploration... and whether its by design or bad luck and injuries, if a coach doesn't have the personnel for a certain scheme they need to adapt to the players they do have.

My feeling is that you are going to see more 4-3 schemes this season - with part of that intended to keep opposing teams off-balance.

 

[Pats726]

Minor quibble, but Wright is a DE—6'4", 295#—who often plays NT. (He might be a good 4-3 DT, though.)

He often plays NT giving the D a bit quicker player there...which is good..esp with Wilfork and Brace..The latter will wear the line out so Wright can be quicker and show something different. I agree he could play outside as well..or as a DT in a 4-3. I do like him as a change of pace NT.

 

[ivanfears]

I think u are getting the design of the defense mixed up with the execution...but that is OK...

lets not get technical about it, the bottom line is the defense sucks and it needs to de fixed

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Question: why are teams switching to the 3-4?
A: Because they think it is more effective and versatile

Q:Why do they think that?
A: Continued success of 3-4 teams in building and maintaining top defenses

Q: Who are the people the are emulating?
A: The winning teams that have relied on top D to win Super Bowls

Q: Who do we know that is one of the top 3 gurus of 3-4 defenses?
A: Bill Belichick

Q: Why do you change what you do best, what you have relied on to win three Lombardi trophies, what everyone else is copying, what you are an expert on?
A: You don't!