Casserly, Billick talks Patriots

[KDPPatsfan85]

Charley Casserly and Brian Billick, both of whom are contributing to draft coverage for NFL Network, are holding a conference call today.

Here is their opinion when asked about the Patriots’ needs and what they might do in the draft:

“The areas to me that they can get better are outside linebacker, inside linebacker, corner and offensive tackle," Casserly said.

“The corner from Connecticut, [Darius] Butler, is probably in that range. Then at outside linebacker, you have guys like Clay Matthews, who a lot of people like in the last part of that first round. Larry English, but I don’t know if he fits their mold as far as the size factor goes. Those are some names, value-wise, who would fit into that part of the first round.”

Billick looked through a wider lens when assessing the Patriots’ possible approach.

“What intrigues me the most about New England this year, and it tends to be something we see over and over again, you’re looking at all these picks in the first three rounds that they have, and their history to not hesitate, and some of these they will toss off to bank for next year as well, because they realize there are only so many guys they are going to take that can make their football team,” Billick said.

“To sit there with the six picks that they have in the first three rounds, they have a lot of latitude to however their board lays out. They can go up and get a guy if they covet a guy, which hasn’t necessarily been their m.o. – and I’m not sure this is a draft that you would isolate that. I think they’re in great shape to fit the needs that Charley outlined.”

One other aspect of the call that stood out was Casserly listing the percentages of landing a starting player in the draft.

Casserly cited on a 10-year study – which evaluated drafts after four years had passed – and listed the following numbers of success:

# First round – 75 percent
# Second round – 50 percent
# Third round – 30 percent
# Fourth round – 25 percent
# Fifth round – 20 percent
# Sixth round – 9 percent
# Seventh round – 9 percent

Casserly, Billick talk Patriots - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

 

[alvinnf]

I guess it's a good problem to have when you realistically only have room for a few draft picks, because of team depth. You can really target one or two guys, use a couple picks for competion or depth. Then push a couple out for next year. Sounds like a winning formula.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I guess it's a good problem to have when you realistically only have room for a few draft picks, because of team depth. You can really target one or two guys, use a couple picks for competion or depth. Then push a couple out for next year. Sounds like a winning formula.

Yeah, it's definitely been our winning formula for many of the BB draft years.

 

[KY Pats Fan]

Kind of what I've been saying for a month or so. Having all of these picks in the first 3 rounds are great, but how many slots do they have in the 53 man roster. Better to bundle picks and move up or trade for picks next year, that "waste" them. Which I believe is BB's mantra. I expect them to bundle up the 23 and one of the 2nds to move up. I would like them to grab Tyson Jackson. Then bundle up the other 2nds and maybe a 3rd to move up and grab Barwin.

 

[arrellbee]

Don't want to be a killjoy, but from looking at a number of drafts over the years, my estimate was only about 1/3 of 1st rounders became solid starters, much less stars, after half a dozen years.

 

[arrellbee]

Interesting. Reiss reports a comment from Billick that of 43 QBs selected in first round since 1990, it's about 12-14 that have had 'consistent' success. So for QBs, there is the 1/3 number.

 

[Feep50]

I think 23,34,47,58 will end up being 3 selections and a 1st next year....

This is the year of the "Killah B's" Beatty, Butler and Brown!

 

[Wretch]

Don't want to be a killjoy, but from looking at a number of drafts over the years, my estimate was only about 1/3 of 1st rounders became solid starters, much less stars, after half a dozen years.

Ok I'll bite. Patriots first round picks dating back to 1999:

Mayo: DROY
Merriweather: Solid Starter
Maroney: Solid Starter when healthy
Mankins: All Pro
Wolfork: All Pro
Watson: Solid Starter
Graham: Solid Starter
Warren: Solid Starter
Seymour: All Pro
Woody (Grier Pick): Solid Starter
Katzenmoyer(Grier Pick)isappointing career due to injuries

looks a little better than 1 in 3 or were talking league wide

 

[Number 2]

That is really impressive (for the team) seeing them all in order like that!

 

[fair catch fryar]

Ok I'll bite. Patriots first round picks dating back to 1999:

Mayo: DROY
Merriweather: Solid Starter
Maroney: Solid Starter when healthy
Mankins: All Pro
Wolfork: All Pro
Watson: Solid Starter
Graham: Solid Starter
Warren: Solid Starter
Seymour: All Pro
Woody (Grier Pick): Solid Starter
Katzenmoyer(Grier Pick)isappointing career due to injuries

looks a little better than 1 in 3 or were talking league wide

Maroney and Watson are starters, but the term solid is debatable IMO. We've seen flashes, but neither has shown they can be consistent, if and when they are healthy.

 

[Deus Irae]

Maroney and Watson are starters, but the term solid is debatable IMO. We've seen flashes, but neither has shown they can be consistent, if and when they are healthy.

Since you think the issue of whether or not Watson is a 'solid' starter is debatable, please list all the tight ends that are clearly better than Watson.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Since you think the issue of whether or not Watson is a 'solid' starter is debatable, please list all the tight ends that are clearly better than Watson.

I had as much hope for Watson as anyone since he chased Champ Bailey down on that infamous interception, but IMO, Watson is a starter because of lack of depth. He's got tremendous athletic ability and appears to intelligent as well, but he lacks the much-needed blocking skills, is often injured and comes down with the case of the "dropsies" too much. Graham left via free-agency, but was a "solid" starter compared to Watson. Thomas would've been the heir apparent, but he can't stay on the field as well. There's a difference between being a starter and being a "solid" starter. Watson like Maroney show flashes of promise then seems to disappear for extended periods. People can say that the offense doesn't focus on him because of the many options available, but I believe if Watson had the confidence of the coaching staff as a "solid" starter he would be more involved.

 

[Deus Irae]

I had as much hope for Watson as anyone since he chased Champ Bailey down on that infamous interception, but IMO, Watson is a starter because of lack of depth. He's got tremendous athletic ability and appears to intelligent as well, but he lacks the much-needed blocking skills, is often injured and comes down with the case of the "dropsies" too much. Graham left via free-agency, but was a "solid" starter compared to Watson. Thomas would've been the heir apparent, but he can't stay on the field as well. There's a difference between being a starter and being a "solid" starter. Watson like Maroney show flashes of promise then seems to disappear for extended periods. People can say that the offense doesn't focus on him because of the many options available, but I believe if Watson had the confidence of the coaching staff as a "solid" starter he would be more involved.

Go look up the snap numbers from last year, and from the year before, to see how involved he was. Now, how about that list?

 

[RayClay]

I had as much hope for Watson as anyone since he chased Champ Bailey down on that infamous interception, but IMO, Watson is a starter because of lack of depth. He's got tremendous athletic ability and appears to intelligent as well, but he lacks the much-needed blocking skills, is often injured and comes down with the case of the "dropsies" too much. Graham left via free-agency, but was a "solid" starter compared to Watson. Thomas would've been the heir apparent, but he can't stay on the field as well. There's a difference between being a starter and being a "solid" starter. Watson like Maroney show flashes of promise then seems to disappear for extended periods. People can say that the offense doesn't focus on him because of the many options available, but I believe if Watson had the confidence of the coaching staff as a "solid" starter he would be more involved.

He's starting on a top team. That equals success - bottom of the first round too. The average NFL career is only a few years. By drafting criteria, all those are successes no matter what they do the rest of their careers. Pretty damned impressive, actually.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Go look up the snap numbers from last year, and from the year before, to see how involved he was. Now, how about that list?

What list are you talking about? My opinion, yea it's my opinion, and believe it or not, we are entitled to them on this board, regardless of what you seem to think, and I don't think Watson has been a 'solid' starter. If you have convincing evidence then please share. Don't just respond to my posts trying to belittle my opinion just because I don't have the vast stores of Patriot stats and appropriate web sites like you. This board is the only one I have time for and use it to increase my knowledge on my favorite football team from everyone that contributes.

 

[fair catch fryar]

He's starting on a top team. That equals success - bottom of the first round too. The average NFL career is only a few years. By drafting criteria, all those are successes no matter what they do the rest of their careers. Pretty damned impressive, actually.

Do you feel Watson has been a 'solid' starter in his time here? I guess my expectations were too high. He's a class act, but I just don't think he's been a consistent and solid contributor that I thought he would be.Then again it's only my opinion.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Do you feel Watson has been a 'solid' starter in his time here? I guess my expectations were too high. He's a class act, but I just don't think he's been a consistent and solid contributor that I thought he would be.Then again it's only my opinion.

Watson did very well in 2007 with Brady .. but to be fair to him when Cassell went in he was mostly asked to sit in and block .. although he did drop quite a few catchable balls

Big year for him and Maroney - esp with guys like Taylor and Baker pushing them

 

[Deus Irae]

Since you think the issue of whether or not Watson is a 'solid' starter is debatable, please list all the tight ends that are clearly better than Watson.

Go look up the snap numbers from last year, and from the year before, to see how involved he was. Now, how about that list?

What list are you talking about? My opinion, yea it's my opinion, and believe it or not, we are entitled to them on this board, regardless of what you seem to think, and I don't think Watson has been a 'solid' starter. If you have convincing evidence then please share. Don't just respond to my posts trying to belittle my opinion just because I don't have the vast stores of Patriot stats and appropriate web sites like you. This board is the only one I have time for and use it to increase my knowledge on my favorite football team from everyone that contributes.

Nothing in either of those posts of mine belittles your opinion:

1.) You made a claim and I asked you to produce a list of tight ends that are clearly better than than Watson.

2.) I made a reference to snap numbers and suggested you go look them up.

3.) Because you hadn't given me that list of tight ends you felt were clearly better than Watson, I asked for it a second time.

I'm not a huge fan of the man as a player, and I preferred Graham over him because Graham was/is a vastly superior blocker, but Watson gets unfairly criticized around here. He's not an All-Pro, but he's certainly 'solid' at the position.

As far as websites go, they can be very helpful, and many of them are definitely worth the bookmark. Two excellent ones to start with are

Pro-Football-Reference.com - Pro Football Statistics and History

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Here are a few others you might also find useful, depending upon your wants and needs:

databaseFootball.com - NFL Football Statistics, Draft, Awards, and History

NFL Players Association

Patriots blog - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

The National Football Post

ProFootballTalk.com

That's not an exhaustive list by any means, but it's a beginning. I'm sure others have sites that they consider 'must have' places, and perhaps they'll list their favorites hear for you, but that list should be good enough to get you a solid start on websites.

I hope this helps you, and enjoy the draft this weekend!

 

[fair catch fryar]

Nothing in either of those posts of mine belittles your opinion:

1.) You made a claim and I asked you to produce a list of tight ends that are clearly better than than Watson.

2.) I made a reference to snap numbers and suggested you go look them up.

3.) Because you hadn't given me that list of tight ends you felt were clearly better than Watson, I asked for it a second time.

I'm not a huge fan of the man as a player, and I preferred Graham over him because Graham was/is a vastly superior blocker, but Watson gets unfairly criticized around here. He's not an All-Pro, but he's certainly 'solid' at the position.

As far as websites go, they can be very helpful, and many of them are definitely worth the bookmark. Two excellent ones to start with are

Pro-Football-Reference.com - Pro Football Statistics and History

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Here are a few others you might also find useful, depending upon your wants and needs:

databaseFootball.com - NFL Football Statistics, Draft, Awards, and History

NFL Players Association

Patriots blog - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

The National Football Post

ProFootballTalk.com

That's not an exhaustive list by any means, but it's a beginning. I'm sure others have sites that they consider 'must have' places, and perhaps they'll list their favorites hear for you, but that list should be good enough to get you a solid start on websites.

I hope this helps you, and enjoy the draft this weekend!

Thanks Deus Irae! I'll definitely check this out. To this sites credit and the more knowledgeable posters I have learned a great deal. I keep putting it off, but I do plan on making a donation to Pats Fans eventually. Thanks again.