Ominous Philly-KC trade possibility?

[mayoclinic]

This may seem a bit far fetched, but I think there is a serious possibility of Philadelphia trading #21 and #28 (and possibly a bit more thrown in, such as the #159 pick they got from New England) to KC for the #3 pick.

At first blush, this seems ridiculous. The #3 pick is valued at 2200 points. #21 + #28 are valued together at 1440 points, or a 760 point difference. The #159 pick from New England would still leave Philly over 700 points short.

So, why does this still seem possible?

1. This year even more than others, teams are likely to be willing to accept a sub-optimal offer to trade out of the top 5. Mike Mayock has suggested that the value point of this draft is around pick 22, and that you can get as good a player at 20 as in the top 10. Philly picks 21 and 28, two picks in the sweet spot of the first round. Mayock has also suggested that teams at the top of the draft will be willing to settle for as little as half of what the traditional draft value chart suggests in order to trade down.

2. Scott Pioli is known for liking trading down and finding value later in the first round. KC has been interviewing a host of prospects who are not likely to be suitable with the #3 pick, such as Connor Barwin and James Laurinaitis. KC has no #2 pick, having traded it to NE. At 21 and 28, KC could likely pick up a 3-4 OLB at 21 such as Barwin (who they are rumored to love, scooping the Pats at 23) and an OT such as Beatty or Britton at 28. Or trade down further and get a 3-4 DT like Ron Brace.

3. Philly has no LT and is desperate to get one. They need someone who can potentially start at LT day 1 this season, which rules out someone like Beatty or Britton who should be available at 21. That leaves them with Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, and possible Andre Smith or Michael Oher, all of whom should be gone by 13. According to CNNSI, "Eagles general manager Tom Heckert said yesterday that the team didn't know who will be the starting left tackle when the season starts Sept. 13 against the Carolina Panthers. But Heckert suggested coach Andy Reid will know by the end of next weekend's NFL draft. More likely, Reid will know by the completion of the first round. Three tackles have top-10 potential in this draft -- Baylor's Jason Smith, Virginia's Eugene Monroe, and Alabama's Andre Smith. The Eagles have the 21st and 28th picks in the first round, so they have means to make a trade. Heckert said that if the Eagles want a rookie left tackle who can start in 2009, they probably have to get one of the elite guys." NFL | Truth&Rumors | FanNation The Eagles have reportedly had both Eugene Monroe and Andre Smith in for visits, neither of whom should be available at 21.

If KC is willing to take a discount, I see Philly trading up to #3 and taking either Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith at OT. KC would have a wide range of value picks at #21 and #28, much more to Scott Pioli's liking, and consistent with some of the prospects they are eyeing. I'm personally not thrilled about this, as the Chiefs would pick just ahead of the Pats twice (21 vs. 23 and 28 vs. 34) and could swipe 2 players of prime interest to us. But I think it's a realistic possibility.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Good, hopefully they reach on that Barwin guy leaving us with English, Maybin or even that Matthews guy lol.-This is my idea of a Joke.

Seriously I think if Philly trades up to that spot to grab a LT than they are dumber than I thought. McNabb wants a new conract and he also wants new weapons before he gets into contract negotiations. The Eagles are much better off grabbing a LT like Britton at #21 and Trading #28 and something else to AZ for Boldin. They could use the second they have for a RB like Lesean McCoy or a FS.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

It is what it is.

 

[mayoclinic]

Good, hopefully they reach on that Barwin guy leaving us with English, Maybin or even that Matthews guy lol.-This is my idea of a Joke.

Seriously I think if Philly trades up to that spot to grab a LT than they are dumber than I thought. McNabb wants a new conract and he also wants new weapons before he gets into contract negotiations. The Eagles are much better off grabbing a LT like Britton at #21 and Trading #28 and something else to AZ for Boldin. They could use the second they have for a RB like Lesean McCoy or a FS.

You may be right, but Philly has a gaping hole at LT. Unless they can trade for Jason Peters, they may be desperate enough to trade up. McNabb can run, but he still needs a decent LT to protect him.

This wasn't meant to be a B****n thread. But I generally wouldn't like the idea of Scott Pioli picking right in front of us for our first 2 picks, as he could easily target defensive players that we might like.

 

[Deus Irae]

Good, hopefully they reach on that Barwin guy leaving us with English, Maybin or even that Matthews guy lol.-This is my idea of a Joke.

Seriously I think if Philly trades up to that spot to grab a LT than they are dumber than I thought. McNabb wants a new conract and he also wants new weapons before he gets into contract negotiations. The Eagles are much better off grabbing a LT like Britton at #21 and Trading #28 and something else to AZ for Boldin. They could use the second they have for a RB like Lesean McCoy or a FS.

The draft is about getting your favorite players at an acceptable cost. Why settle for Britton if you can get the player you'd prefer, especially at a position as crucial as LT?

 

[TriplecHamp]

The draft is about getting your favorite players at an acceptable cost. Why settle for Britton if you can get the player you'd prefer, especially at a position as crucial as LT?

LT is a big hole for philly but as the original post says the value is later in the round (around 22). Why would Philly elect to get one LT when they can get a less pollished one and possibly a number 1 receiver for the same price?

 

[Irish Hooligan]

Well done and I adore the research base to this hypothesis, I think a lot has been lost on Jacksonville signing T Thomas away from Philly. Quick fix sure but a good move if they get their Guards healthy. LT is dire when you are Philly because those guys don't have sh:banned:

 

[Deus Irae]

LT is a big hole for philly but as the original post says the value is later in the round (around 22). Why would Philly elect to get one LT when they can get a less pollished one and possibly a number 1 receiver for the same price?

Because McNabb's going to be 33 and he's been hurt a lot in recent years. The Eagles can't wait 2-3 years for a left tackle to hone his craft. They need someone who can get the job done starting on day 1.

Besides, value only applies when you're drafting in general. It doesn't apply when you're looking for your player. That's why New England traded up for Mayo last season. There was talent for the taking at their initial drafting spot, but they had a specific player in mind and went after him. The Patriots understand this, which is why they collect draft picks the way they do.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Because McNabb's going to be 33 and he's been hurt a lot in recent years. The Eagles can't wait 2-3 years for a left tackle to hone his craft. They need someone who can get the job done starting on day 1.

Besides, value only applies when you're drafting in general. It doesn't apply when you're looking for your player. That's why New England traded up for Mayo last season. There was talent for the taking at their initial drafting spot, but they had a specific player in mind and went after him. The Patriots understand this, which is why they collect draft picks the way they do.

NE traded down from #7 and took Mayo at #10...

 

[Deus Irae]

NE traded down from #7 and took Mayo at #10...

Yes, I typed that wrong. I meant that they 'reached' for him, not that they traded up. My apologies. He was pegged to go lower, but they pulled the trigger anyway. I'd read a comment in another thread and gotten a bit distracted by someone being a smartass about Mayo being called a reach.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Because McNabb's going to be 33 and he's been hurt a lot in recent years. The Eagles can't wait 2-3 years for a left tackle to hone his craft. They need someone who can get the job done starting on day 1.

Besides, value only applies when you're drafting in general. It doesn't apply when you're looking for your player. That's why New England traded up for Mayo last season. There was talent for the taking at their initial drafting spot, but they had a specific player in mind and went after him. The Patriots understand this, which is why they collect draft picks the way they do.

Actually it was the Exact opposite. Mayo was their man and the Pats traded down from #7 to #10 because #7 was to high for Mayo. Value is everything, that is why everybody and their mother wants to trade back.

 

[mayoclinic]

LT is a big hole for philly but as the original post says the value is later in the round (around 22). Why would Philly elect to get one LT when they can get a less pollished one and possibly a number 1 receiver for the same price?

First, the Eagles have a pressing need at LT for someone who can start immediately. William "Tra" Thomas left for Jacksonville as a FA. Jon Runyan is an unsigned UFA, is 35, and is a RT. Stacey Andrews was signed but is an RT and is coming off major knee surgery. And Winston Justice cannot cut it at LT. Getting a less polished tackle might be a better move in the long run, but if they need someone more ready then they will need to pay a premium.

As far as cost goes, Baltimore moved form 26 to 8 last year for #71, 89 and 125. So moving from 21 to 3 for #28 and 159 does not seem ridiculous in comparison. Philly also has 12 picks currently, and can't possibly use them all, so throwing in a mid-late pick or two to jack up the pot seems reasonable. Finally, Rick Gosselin notes in his blog that "The Chiefs probably need four starters to come out of this draft." NFL Blog | Sports News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News What better way to start than with 2 first round picks?

 

[Deus Irae]

Actually it was the Exact opposite. Mayo was their man and the Pats traded down from #7 to #10 because #7 was to high for Mayo. Value is everything, that is why everybody and their mother wants to trade back.

See above. The same rules apply, I just mangled my point because I was distracted by another post.

Again, my apologies.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

See above. The same rules apply, I just mangled my point because I was distracted by another post.

Again, my apologies.

Your beating will continue until "our" moral improves. :violent:

 

[TriplecHamp]

First, the Eagles have a pressing need at LT for someone who can start immediately. William "Tra" Thomas left for Jacksonville as a FA. Jon Runyan is an unsigned UFA, is 35, and is a RT. Stacey Andrews was signed but is an RT and is coming off major knee surgery. And Winston Justice cannot cut it at LT. Getting a less polished tackle might be a better move in the long run, but if they need someone more ready then they will need to pay a premium.

As far as cost goes, Baltimore moved form 26 to 8 last year for #71, 89 and 125. So moving from 21 to 3 for #28 and 159 does not seem ridiculous in comparison. Philly also has 12 picks currently, and can't possibly use them all, so throwing in a mid-late pick or two to jack up the pot seems reasonable. Finally, Rick Gosselin notes in his blog that "The Chiefs probably need four starters to come out of this draft." NFL Blog | Sports News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News What better way to start than with 2 first round picks?

Haha that is what I was saying about NE moving up for Aaron Curry but that is/was for another time. LT may be the most pressing need but I believe that the Eagles should and will adress their other needs and maybe trade one for Boldin and trade another to move up a few more spots to maybe get a falling Oher or maybe even an Andre Smith. If they did move up to #3 for some reason I wouldnt be surprised if they drafted Michael Crabtree over another OT.

 

[DocE]

If a trade happened that resulted in the Eagles getting that no.3 pick for just 2/3rd's of it's "value", I think that would be the end of the (current) trade value chart. I think it's a possibility, but not a likely one.

 

[mayoclinic]

Haha that is what I was saying about NE moving up for Aaron Curry but that is/was for another time. LT may be the most pressing need but I believe that the Eagles should and will adress their other needs and maybe trade one for Boldin and trade another to move up a few more spots to maybe get a falling Oher or maybe even an Andre Smith. If they did move up to #3 for some reason I wouldnt be surprised if they drafted Michael Crabtree over another OT.

Philly may well do the things you say, and they would be reasonable moves. But moving up for a franchise LT isn't out of the question. As far as Oher falling goes, Mike Lombardi lists him as one of his 6 risers in his latest column and predicts that his floor is SF at #10.

Personally, I don't think you move up to #3 to draft a WR or an LB. I don't see Andy Reid paying that much to move up for Crabtree when he could probably get Boldin for one of his picks and use the other on OL, RB, S or TE. And as much as I like Aaron Curry (and I love him), he is an SILB for us, and I don't think it's worth spending the picks or the money for an SILB. We might be able to package 23, 34 and 47 to move up to #3, but then we would be spending a fortune on one player when we have other needs. That's part of why I see Pioli wanting to move down. He may love Curry, but spending #3 money on an LB who is not Lawrence Taylor is not good business sense.

 

[mgteich]

You have demonstrated why Philly will be desparate to move into the top ten to get one of the top four OT's. What you have not demonstrated is why Kansas City would be so accomodating.

If KC isn't sold on one of the OT's or Curry, then I could see them trading down. Denver might give them 12 and 18 and then choose Sanchez or even Curry. There may be many other options with trade down a few spots, even one spot if Seattle really wants Sanchez. KC could then trade again and perhaps even a third time.

This may seem a bit far fetched, but I think there is a serious possibility of Philadelphia trading #21 and #28 (and possibly a bit more thrown in, such as the #159 pick they got from New England) to KC for the #3 pick.

At first blush, this seems ridiculous. The #3 pick is valued at 2200 points. #21 + #28 are valued together at 1440 points, or a 760 point difference. The #159 pick from New England would still leave Philly over 700 points short.

So, why does this still seem possible?

1. This year even more than others, teams are likely to be willing to accept a sub-optimal offer to trade out of the top 5. Mike Mayock has suggested that the value point of this draft is around pick 22, and that you can get as good a player at 20 as in the top 10. Philly picks 21 and 28, two picks in the sweet spot of the first round. Mayock has also suggested that teams at the top of the draft will be willing to settle for as little as half of what the traditional draft value chart suggests in order to trade down.

2. Scott Pioli is known for liking trading down and finding value later in the first round. KC has been interviewing a host of prospects who are not likely to be suitable with the #3 pick, such as Connor Barwin and James Laurinaitis. KC has no #2 pick, having traded it to NE. At 21 and 28, KC could likely pick up a 3-4 OLB at 21 such as Barwin (who they are rumored to love, scooping the Pats at 23) and an OT such as Beatty or Britton at 28. Or trade down further and get a 3-4 DT like Ron Brace.

3. Philly has no LT and is desperate to get one. They need someone who can potentially start at LT day 1 this season, which rules out someone like Beatty or Britton who should be available at 21. That leaves them with Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, and possible Andre Smith or Michael Oher, all of whom should be gone by 13. According to CNNSI, "Eagles general manager Tom Heckert said yesterday that the team didn't know who will be the starting left tackle when the season starts Sept. 13 against the Carolina Panthers. But Heckert suggested coach Andy Reid will know by the end of next weekend's NFL draft. More likely, Reid will know by the completion of the first round. Three tackles have top-10 potential in this draft -- Baylor's Jason Smith, Virginia's Eugene Monroe, and Alabama's Andre Smith. The Eagles have the 21st and 28th picks in the first round, so they have means to make a trade. Heckert said that if the Eagles want a rookie left tackle who can start in 2009, they probably have to get one of the elite guys." NFL | Truth&Rumors | FanNation The Eagles have reportedly had both Eugene Monroe and Andre Smith in for visits, neither of whom should be available at 21.

If KC is willing to take a discount, I see Philly trading up to #3 and taking either Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith at OT. KC would have a wide range of value picks at #21 and #28, much more to Scott Pioli's liking, and consistent with some of the prospects they are eyeing. I'm personally not thrilled about this, as the Chiefs would pick just ahead of the Pats twice (21 vs. 23 and 28 vs. 34) and could swipe 2 players of prime interest to us. But I think it's a realistic possibility.

 

[Deus Irae]

You have demonstrated why Philly will be desparate to move into the top ten to get one of the top four OT's. What you have not demonstrated is why Kansas City would be so accomodating.

If KC isn't sold on one of the OT's or Curry, then I could see them trading down. Denver might give them 12 and 18 and then choose Sanchez or even Curry. There may be many other options with trade down a few spots, even one spot if Seattle really wants Sanchez. KC could then trade again and perhaps even a third time.

Kansas City needs a major talent infusion. Given this draft, 2 players in the later part of the first round are better than one at the top, unless you're looking at OT or are sold on Stafford/Sanchez. For every other position, first round numbers seems to be better than first round draft slotting this year. Two linebackers instead of just Curry, for example or, more likely, a linebacker and a NT. Don't forget that K.C. no longer has a second round pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

You have demonstrated why Philly will be desparate to move into the top ten to get one of the top four OT's. What you have not demonstrated is why Kansas City would be so accomodating.

I've tried to demonstrate why KC might be eager to trade down. They need multiple starters out of the draft (per Rick Gosselin), Pioli has a history of trading down and is more comfortable in the latter part of the 1st round than at #3, the cost structure of paying a LB #3 money is prohibitive, and KC has been actively bringing in players for a visit who fall into the late 1st/early 2nd projection, where they currently have no picks.

Why would they accomodate Philly? Obviously, only if they really wanted to move down and it was the best offer they could get. Why did we trade Matt Cassel for the #34 pick? It's quite possible someone will offer them more to go after Mark Sanchez, but it may not happen. Plus, I could see Pioli valuing two 1st round picks in the sweet spot of the draft above many other offers which some might consider better: number 12 plus 48 from Denver, for example. At 21 and 28 KC should get 2 solid starting quality players. They might consider trading one of the picks for Anquan Boldin (who has publicly said he would like to be reunited with Todd Haley), which would give them a Michael Crabtree like WR for Cassel to throw to and still give them a 1st round pick. Or Braylon Edwards. Or they could get a good 3-4 OLB prospect, or possibly Rey Maualuga, or an OT, or move down and get Ron Brace at DT, or any number of possibilities. It would give them flexibility and diversity of options. At #3 they really only have Curry, Crabtree and one of the top OTs to consider, and except for OT it's too much money to spend on the position. If they stay at #3 I see them taking Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe (whichever one St. Louis doesn't take). But I can easily see Pioli liking the view better from where Philly is sitting.

According to Mike Mayock, teams are desperate to trade out of the top 5, particularly in this draft. It may not happen (probably won't at this point, I would say) but it's not at all unreasonable or impossible.