Have we learned anything about the Pats 2009 draft yet?

[BTTA]

Normally, I'm completely surprised by the Pats picks. I got Mayo right last year, but that was because they were picking very high and there was the right amount of low level buzz about him for a couple of weeks prior to draft day, and they really needed an ILB.

But other than Mayo, I'm about 3 for 50 over the past few years.

Anybody on this board been significantly better than that?

I'm more interested in developing some general ideas about direction, than about specific players. Here are some that appear probable thus far, hoping to spark some conversation:

1) There seem to be a healthy number of solid OL prospects available from the second through fifth rounds. I'm looking for at least one if not two future starting OLmen in this draft.

2) Every player from USC is overhyped and overrated this year. Just say "no" to USC players. This is tough for me to say because one of my kids went to grad school there and had a fabulous experience.

And no, I don't mean The University of South Carolina.

3) The best quarterback prospect will be taken in the second or third round this year. The two big names will not be premier players in this league, ever. The criticisms of many of the QB's that are driving them into late rounds sound very familiar to those made of our current QB prior to the draft.

Discuss....

 

[bakes781]

1) I would agree partially. I think interior line more so than tackle.

2) Again partially because I do think Matthews would be worth a look at #34 and Fili Moala would appear to be a good fit as well.

3) If Freeman goes in round one then you may not see another QB taken until round 4! Unless you wanna include Pat White even though he's likely going to be converted to a WR/RB.

btw I had Meriweather and Wilfork but Wilfork was an obvious choice at the time.

 

[carolinatony]

I have never been right with picks except Mayo last year and Maroney. BB keeps it quite with who he likes which is what it should be.
I agree with you about USC LB's; most don't seem as good in the pro's and I do hope we grab a OL.
We will be suprised this year I'm sure but I'll be watching.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

In an odd way I did better last year than I originally thought, but that was because NE eventually signed Guyton, Craig, and Richardson as UDFA or Free Agents. With Mayo that at least got me to four of the kids I liked. I remembering looking at Redd, but I can't remember if I had him on my UDFA short list at any time.

As far as this draft, it seems the safest projection is NE will draft at least one Day One S and one Day Two 'tweener' DB. Everything else is pretty much linked to value when they pick, though I think you can rule out QB in round one.

 

[TriplecHamp]

I have never been right with picks except Mayo last year and Maroney. BB keeps it quite with who he likes which is what it should be.
I agree with you about USC LB's; most don't seem as good in the pro's and I do hope we grab a OL.
We will be suprised this year I'm sure but I'll be watching.

Troy Polamalu? Junior Seau? Lofa Tatupu? Willie McGinest? Keith Rivers before he got whacked looked promising. Who are you talking about?

 

[cstjohn17]

I haven't learned anything, I feel worse off than I did 3 months ago. I went to NFL.com to complete an entry in a mock draft contest and was left utterly stunned and confused (even more than usual).

For the sake of debate.

1) Two starting linemen from rounds 2-5? That is optimistic, draft picks are 50/50 at best. If the Pats draft 4 offensive linemen I would still expect only 1 to be a starter, 1 to be a backup, 1 to the practice squad and 1 to be cut (even to the dismay of 'experts' like you and me).
2) USC LBs - I like em all, all are upgrades over Woods, Guyton, Bruschi, TBC, Redd, Alexander, Ruud. They are all different, Megs = ILB, Cushing = ILB/OLB versatility, Matthews = 3rd down specialist (an area the Pats were terrible in last year).
3) Sanchez is going to be pretty good, maybe Stafford too. Other than that it looks to be one of the weakest QB classes in history.

 

[carolinatony]

Originally Posted by carolinatony
I have never been right with picks except Mayo last year and Maroney. BB keeps it quite with who he likes which is what it should be.
I agree with you about USC LB's; most don't seem as good in the pro's and I do hope we grab a OL.
We will be suprised this year I'm sure but I'll be watching.

Troy Polamalu? Junior Seau? Lofa Tatupu? Willie McGinest? Keith Rivers before he got whacked looked promising. Who are you talking about



Cushing has steroid questions about him.
Matthews is about 240. we like out LB's more like 260-270 and while Maualugais is a talent there are questions about his drinking and maturity.
I hope we draft Barwin,Sintim or English but will be happy with whoever BB takes.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

This is one of those drafts where I don't have a damn clue where New England is leaning towards. You'd think it would be a pass rushing LB or O-lineman. I just hope that the Pats don't waste a pick on a TE or a D-lineman. I don't care that Seymour and Wilfork will be free agents because 2010 will probably uncapped which makes it easy to re-sign whoever they want.

 

[Revman]

Yes. Trust the front office. As fun as it is for us to play draft expert-the Pat's do a great job balancing free agency with the draft. The most important thing of all is that we have coach B. He did his finest coaching in a storm last year with Brady out, and several other big time players sidelined. I doubt if more than 3 players selected this year can make the field. But-draft as if all picks will battle to win roles. He will target his most needed position. We may argue-he will probably be right. Now, I do think Pat's blew many opportunities the past 5 years in challenging the depth. They almost conceded to quickly that rookies can't help. Missing on several picks. If they have an opportunity it is in realizing that their are more than one or two rookies that can contribute right away.It is a balance that few teams can argue with, the Patriots have made the best of what they have for the past 9 years. I would focus on revitalizing the pass rush, Challenge Seymour-Warren with a new end that can get after the QB. Get a big tackler at inside LB, and select a safety with good hands to rotate this year. Add a young interior lineman. Patriots are not far away from recalimimg the N.F.L title again.

 

[WhiZa]

This is one of those drafts where I don't have a damn clue where New England is leaning towards.

That's the great thing about this draft is they can go in various directions and it will still be a valuable pick. There are no glaring needs really.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Originally Posted by carolinatony
I have never been right with picks except Mayo last year and Maroney. BB keeps it quite with who he likes which is what it should be.
I agree with you about USC LB's; most don't seem as good in the pro's and I do hope we grab a OL.
We will be suprised this year I'm sure but I'll be watching.

Troy Polamalu? Junior Seau? Lofa Tatupu? Willie McGinest? Keith Rivers before he got whacked looked promising. Who are you talking about



Cushing has steroid questions about him.
Matthews is about 240. we like out LB's more like 260-270 and while Maualugais is a talent there are questions about his drinking and maturity.
I hope we draft Barwin,Sintim or English but will be happy with whoever BB takes.

Tell me how much Jerod Mayo weighed? 242lbs.
key word questions. If the same "questions" were going around any of the others you mentioned would you still be happy if we drafted them?
and If Maualuga could survive the fast life of LA and still be able to play while in college I dont have any concerns about him being able to survive in NE with our leadership and quite lifestyle.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think we've learned a lot from the draft process.

The draft is a very dynamic and fluid event. Trades which occur can totally alter the shape of the draft. It's impossible to predict what will actually happen. Here's a nice article about the draft industry which discusses some of the uncertainty involved:

NFL draft experts give fans many opinions, much to talk about - and inaccurate predictions

According to Rick Gosselin, "None of the mocks are credible, including mine. It's all guesswork. We're not drafting. You don't see the general manager of the Giants or the general manager of the Bears doing a mock draft. Everybody else that's doing a mock is guessing. So I'm just trying to provide the readers a service: 'Here are a couple of options for your team. Enjoy the draft.''"

I think that we've covered most of the 250 or so prospects who will come under consideration for the Pats, so that whoever they do pick, we won't do a complete "who the heck is that?" response. And we will have analyzed most picks so that we can compare the FO's actual decision to our own analysis. I think that will be the next interesting step in this exercise - we've reached a bit of a saturation point in terms of our own analysis by now.

In some ways, though, it was a bit more fun when I was more ignorant and reacted with a "WTF?" when someone's name was called as a total surprise to me.

 

[Ungeheuer]

In the last decade or so I've guessed I think five Pats picks -- Mayo last year, Dan Klecko, Tully Banta-Cain (obviously I got the round wrong on almost all of these), Mike Richardson, and Marquise Hill. I think there are two variables with Belichick's draft strategy that are pretty constant.

One is that he likes to draft guys who have NFL or pro sport bloodlines: there's Dan Graham, Klecko, Slater, Bo Rudd (whose father played as well as his brother), and Banta-Cain, who I think is related to Rodney Rogers. Banta-Cain's Dad also played at Navy.

The other is that he definitely likes to draft guys from schools whose coaches used to work for/with him. The sheer volume of guys from Iowa, Notre Dame, Virginia, LSU-under-Saban, and Fresno State is absurd. The list is too long to even talk about here.

The only other thing is that BB definitely likes guys who were big-time recruits coming out of high school whose stock maybe dropped a little here and there for whatever reason. Patrick Pass and David Givens come to mind. Cedric Cobbs is another.

If you take all of these things together, the guys who you'd look at in this draft who make a lot of sense for the Pats, given BB's history, include:

Clay Matthews (two factors here: his Dad played in the NFL, and his Dad played for HIM in the NFL), Darius Butler (multiple family connections), Brian Robiskie, Chase Coffman, Kevin Ellison, David Bruton, Terail Lambert, Coye Francies, Chris Owens, Tom Brandstater, Bear Pascoe, Antoine Caldwell, Clint Sintim, Bobby Lepori, Nick Walker, Bobby Greenwood, Rashad Johnson, Londen Fryar, Glen Coffee, Pat Kuntz, Garrett Reynolds, Maurice Krum, Michael Turkovich, Rob Bruggeman, Brandon Myers, Matt Kroul, Bradley Fletcher, Rashad Jennings... there are more, but those are the obvious ones.

It's pretty hard to guess who the Pats will pick, but I'd bet good money that at least one and probably two Pats picks are on this list.

If I had to pick five or six who smelled very strongly of BB picks, it'd be Matthews, Reynolds (the sentimentalist in BB would like having Hacksaw's blood on the team, a la the Klecko pick), Brandstater (BB likes late-round fliers on no-name QBs, and Brandstater has been good for Pat Hill), Bradley Fletcher (was a heavily-recruited all-Ohio prep player in both football and basketball, played for Ferentz), and probably Terail Lambert, who played for Weis, is a short corner, and had a blazing 40 time, all classic BB tells. Maybe Chase Coffman, too, just because he's a TE we probably would be disappointed to see picked, and he has an NFL Dad. You'd probably also have to add Jairus Byrd, whose Dad played for the Chargers. This is going to sound crazy but Jairus looks a little like Rodney Harrison on the field to me. I know he played corner, but he looks like he could be a safety in the NFL. Just a thought.

 

[VJCPatriot]

2) Every player from USC is overhyped and overrated this year. Just say "no" to USC players. This is tough for me to say because one of my kids went to grad school there and had a fabulous experience.

You took the words right out of my mouth. Right now the USC linebackers look to be the most overrated and overhyped players in the draft. Could they turn out to be decent players? Yes, if put into the right system. But can they live up to the hype and the billing? I doubt it. And I have plenty of questions about each of them.

Maualuga gets knocked down to the ground too easily, whiffs on big tackles instead of playing disiciplined and wrapping up. Cushing - the supplements/steroids knock. Matthews - Has he maxed out on his weight and can he compete with the more powerful offensive players he has to face in the pros?

 

[BTTA]

This is helpful, thanks.

One is that he likes to draft guys who have NFL or pro sport bloodlines.

The other is that he definitely likes to draft guys from schools whose coaches used to work for/with him.

The only other thing is that BB definitely likes guys who were big-time recruits coming out of high school whose stock maybe dropped a little here and there for whatever reason.