Forbes: Drafting Success - A Paradox to Ponder

[Box_O_Rocks]

Read it all the way through before you kick the dog, it puts things in a better perspective than you might think at first blush.

Best And Worst NFL Draft Teams - Forbes.com

Best And Worst NFL Draft Teams

Monte Burke, 04.08.09, 6:00 PM ET

What's almost as anticipated as the Super Bowl? The annual National Football League Draft.

This year, it will be held April 25-26 at New York's Radio City Music Hall. That's when all 32 professional teams will select newly eligible players for their rosters. The event has become, in effect, a second season for football fans, who obsess over which teams drafted the best players.

 

[ALP]

before anyone beats me to it w/ the obvious...

the more talent ur team has, the less rookies that are gonna make it...


need i explain further?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

before anyone beats me to it w/ the obvious...

the more talent ur team has, the less rookies that are gonna make it...


need i explain further?

Standby, the opportunity for further explanation should arise in the next couple days.

 

[BradyFTW!]

before anyone beats me to it w/ the obvious...

the more talent ur team has, the less rookies that are gonna make it...


need i explain further?

Yeah, that pretty much covers it. It's a lot easier to stick on the Texans' roster than the Patriots'. You have to be damn good to make it for the Pats.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

They might have had a couple of misses, but c'mon. Worst? That reporter is a moron. I'm going back to reading about Gisele, and her army of bodyguards. Wake me when the draft starts

 

[TealSox]

I've seen posts on the Raiders message board with more thought/insight.

Draft picks = Randy Moss from Raiders and Wes Welker from Dolphins

Draft picks = Eventual Free Agents = Potential Compensatory picks

(see Asante Samuel, et al)

Draft picks = trade for other Draft picks = Tradeable commodity or rookies

(see Patriots 1st round pick to 49ers and 49ers pick turning into Jerod Mayo)

Draft pick = Rookies = tradeable commodity

(see Deion Branch to the Seahawks)

 

[DarrylS]

Wonder if BB and his crew use Bulletin Board material to help keep them motivated....

BTW when did this mag start covering sports??? Is someone bored..

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Wonder if BB and his crew use Bulletin Board material to help keep them motivated....

BTW when did this mag start covering sports??? Is someone bored..

They've had articles in the past discussing the business of the NFL, not to mention the leadership aspects that lead to business success. The draft is certainly one of the Human Resources aspects of the Sports Entertainment industry.

 

[xmarkd400x]

They should really have correlated % of draftees on the roster to win % or something like that.

Sure, a team with crap players will keep more draftees. However, a team that keeps little or no draftees will probably suffer.

Also, there's teams with different philosophies. The Colts try to build almost entirely through the draft, and the Pats seem to place equal value on veteran FAs and the draft.

/shrug

I will say that it seems keeping less draftees on your team is a symptom of success (as one would expect).

The interesting thing is that even the Patriots, one of the "worst" teams, still have 50% of their team being made up by players drafted in the past 3 years. It really shows the importance of the draft.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The interesting thing is that even the Patriots, one of the "worst" teams, still have 50% of their team being made up by players drafted in the past 3 years. It really shows the importance of the draft.

That ~50% is the percentage of Pats draftees over the last three years that are still in a Patriots uniform.

Needless to say, it's badly skewed by the eight draftees in the last three rounds of the 2007 draft who nevertheless, I guess, were supposed to make their way onto the most talented Patriots roster of all time.

 

[Urgent]

You really need to adjust for draft round.

This analysis inherently assumes that a first round, third round, and seventh round pick are equally valuable. They are looking at the total number of drafted players and total subset from that group remaining with the team.

Further, they are looking at a relatively short window.

The Patriots, within that window, have the 2007 draft, when they surrendered a second for Welker and a fourth for Moss. They drafted Meriweather in the first, then their next drafted pick was in the fourth, with Kareem Brown. They had eight picks from the fourth on; six in the final two rounds. Unsurprisingly, only Meriweather remains with the team.

Their fourth pick in the 2007 draft was in the sixth round. Contrast that distribution of picks with 2009, when the Patriots fourth pick is in the second round.

If you adjust for round, you will see very different results.

The Forbes approach labels the 2007 draft a terrible failure.
However, the Patriots, in addition to Kareem Brown, Clint Oldenburg, Justin Rogers, et al.;
Traded 2007 #28 for 2008 #7, eventually becoming Jerod Mayo.
Traded 2007 second for Wes Welker at an affordable deal.
Traded 2007 third for 2008 #69, and then for 2009 #47.
Traded 2007 fourth for Randy Moss at a way-below-market deal.

So, if you looked at the 2007 draft results as Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather, and an extra 2009 second rounder, that's not so bad. If you consider 100% of the Day One picks are with the team, but 0% of the Day Two picks, that's not terrible.

What makes more sense to compare is the relative results by round.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You really need to adjust for draft round.

This analysis inherently assumes that a first round, third round, and seventh round pick are equally valuable. They are looking at the total number of drafted players and total subset from that group remaining with the team.

Further, they are looking at a relatively short window.

The Patriots, within that window, have the 2007 draft, when they surrendered a second for Welker and a fourth for Moss. They drafted Meriweather in the first, then their next drafted pick was in the fourth, with Kareem Brown. They had eight picks from the fourth on; six in the final two rounds. Unsurprisingly, only Meriweather remains with the team.

Their fourth pick in the 2007 draft was in the sixth round. Contrast that distribution of picks with 2009, when the Patriots fourth pick is in the second round.

If you adjust for round, you will see very different results.

The Forbes approach labels the 2007 draft a terrible failure.
However, the Patriots, in addition to Kareem Brown, Clint Oldenburg, Justin Rogers, et al.;
Traded 2007 #28 for 2008 #7, eventually becoming Jerod Mayo.
Traded 2007 second for Wes Welker at an affordable deal.
Traded 2007 third for 2008 #69, and then for 2009 #47.
Traded 2007 fourth for Randy Moss at a way-below-market deal.

So, if you looked at the 2007 draft results as Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather, and an extra 2009 second rounder, that's not so bad. If you consider 100% of the Day One picks are with the team, but 0% of the Day Two picks, that's not terrible.

What makes more sense to compare is the relative results by round.

Mike Richardson is still with the team too.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

BTW when did this mag start covering sports??? Is someone bored..

Well since it's a proven fact that the financial reporting mags, Forbes et. al., utterly failed to anticipate the subprime Black Swan that devastated the economy, they might as well try finding alternate venues where they have at least some shot at competency. Just a thought.

 

[Deus Irae]

Well since it's a proven fact that the financial reporting mags, Forbes et. al., utterly failed to anticipate the subprime Black Swan that devastated the economy, they might as well try finding alternate venues where they have at least some shot at competency. Just a thought.

Well, judging by this article, that venue isn't football reporting.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

They might have had a couple of misses, but c'mon. Worst? That reporter is a moron. I'm going back to reading about Gisele, and her army of bodyguards. Wake me when the draft starts

Both of his busts are still in the NFL, albeit on different teams, Mills with the Vikings ( and only cause he couldn't slip thru waivers) and brown with the Jets. And Brown was a 4th round pick , not a second rounder. When you have to go 4th round to find busts, you're scraping the bottle of the barrel. If he had picked Chad Jackson, he might have had some credibility...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Well, judging by this article, that venue isn't football reporting.

Well, the true business aspects, they're fine at. But stuff that actually requires understanding things like, you know, how to build a roster? Not so much.

 

[Lockdown06]

I'm not giving to much credit to an article that lists Kareem Brown as a 2nd rounder and Garrett Mills as a running back

 

[Pats726]

I started reading and and saw that teh Texans was the best..amd then I realized what they were doing..and with that saw taht NO SURPRISE of where the Pats were. Can we say garbage?? The writer has no clue about what it takes to build a real roster..it's almost embarrassing...maybe they should stick to finaces...something they know about!! ooops..they stink on that as well..

 

[Deus Irae]

Both of his busts are still in the NFL, albeit on different teams, Mills with the Vikings ( and only cause he couldn't slip thru waivers) and brown with the Jets. And Brown was a 4th round pick , not a second rounder. When you have to go 4th round to find busts, you're scraping the bottle of the barrel. If he had picked Chad Jackson, he might have had some credibility...

And Jackson is also still in the NFL.

 

[WelshPat]

The great thing about being a good team is that it puts less pressure on your drafts, you can attract vets who can come in and play straight away, allowing you to make more trades into extra years.

When the pats really needed to draft well, in the early days for Bill , for the most part they did.

At the end of the day it dosent really matter that the last 3 drafts have been sub-par. You got to an AFC champ game, a superbowl, and went 11-5. Thats pretty phenominal.