April 1 Top 5 defensive rankings from Wes Bunting

[mayoclinic]

This from Wes Bunting at National Football Post:

The National Football Post | NFP Top 5 Defensive Rankings

He has some interesting rankings, including:

- Aaron Maybin and Robert Ayers as the #1-2 DE with Everette Brown/Brian Orapko/Tyson Jackson as #3-4-5. On Orapko, he notes: "The real surprise is that I moved Orakpo, the consensus No. 1 defensive end on most draft boards, to fourth. The more tape I watch of him, the less I feel he has the first step to consistently reach the corner and get after the passer. He doesn’t play as strong as his weight room numbers indicate, and I don’t think he has the fluidity to play OLB in a 3-4."

- Jarron Gilbert as the #2 DT in the draft after BJ Raji: " Second is Gilbert, a versatile lineman who has the ability to play in either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. Gilbert made a living in opponents’ backfields last season and has the burst, power and length to create plays versus the run and pass. He is simply one of the draft’s top defensive linemen and has the ability to be effective in any scheme and at any position."

- Connor Barwin as the #2 OLB after Aaron Curry (followed by Clay Matthews, Brian Cushing and Larry English): "Barwin, who’s been flying up draft boards ever since he made the switch to defense in his senior season, possesses impressive athletic tools. His combination of instincts and motor makes him an intriguing 3-4 outside linebacker. He still has a bit of developing to do from a technique standpoint, but he offers more upside than any of the linebackers listed below him."

- Sean Smith as his #1 CB prospect, ahead of Malcolm Jenkins: "It’s rare to find a cornerback with the size, fluidity and footwork that Sean Smith possesses, and this type of skill set is the main reason he’s No. 1 on my board. I think Smith might have the most upside of any player in the draft, and with some time to improve on his technique he has the ability to become a very good man-to-man corner." Even more surprisingly, Darius Butler didn't make his top 5 list.

- Sherrod Martin as the #1 and Chip Vaughn as the #4 safeties (ahead of Patrick Chung at #5, and Louis Delmas who didn't make his top 5): On Martin: "Martin, the versatile defensive back from Troy, is being considered at both the free safety and cornerback spots. He’s one of the smoothest DBs in this year’s class and has the ability to make it at either position. However, his ball skills and impressive range in the center field-type role scream ball-hawking safety." Re Vaughn: "Vaughn and Chung round out the group. Both are physical, hard-hitting defensive backs, although Vaughn displays much better range and fluidity in coverage. Chung gets by on his instincts, but he doesn’t display the same type of recovery speed possessed by Vaughn."

Interesting stuff. I agree with some of it, such as Orapko not being fluid enough to be a 3-4 OLB, liking Gilbert, Barwin and Sean Smith a lot, and not being so high on Tyson Jackson. But I see Sean Smith as a FS more than a CB (and would have him as the #1 FS, ahead of Sherrod Martin and Rashad Johnson), and I find the exclusion of Darius Butler puzzling. I don't see Aaron Maybin as the #1 DE right now (possibly in 2011, but he needs to develop more). And as I've made abundantly clear, I like Louis Delmas as a SS/FS hybrid similar to Michael Griffin in 2007.

 

[mayoclinic]

For comparison, here are Mike Mayock's new top 5 rankings from today:

Mayock's top prospects at each position

Very different list:

- Gilbert not in the top 5 at DT.
- Orapko as the #2 OLB after Curry, with Barwin not in the top 5, and Maybin tied for 5th. Listing Orapko as an OLB rather than as a DE is a bit of a surprise.
- Vontae Davis as the #1 CB.
- Sean Smith not in the top 5 at either CB or S.
- Delmas as the #1 safety.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Mayock > Bunting ...

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayock > Bunting ...

Perhaps. But Brian Orapko as an OLB (and the #2 OLB after Curry) and Vontae Davis as the #1 CB seem quite questionable to me.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Perhaps. But Brian Orapko as an OLB (and the #2 OLB after Curry) and Vontae Davis as the #1 CB seem quite questionable to me.

Yes the Barwin one is interesting. Mayock is usually spot on ?

 

[Seneschal2]

- Aaron Maybin and Robert Ayers as the #1-2 DE with Everette Brown/Brian Orapko/Tyson Jackson as #3-4-5.

- Jarron Gilbert as the #2 DT

Gilbert not in the top 5 at DT.

Mayo and others. It's time to start making some progress on potential Pats candidates, as the general rankings seem to be all over the place. I highlighted Tyson Jackson and Jarron Gilbert as possible #23 picks because they're both considered talented full-sized linemen and would represent insurance for Seymour. We know Belichick built the Pats DL using three first rounders, selecting at #'s 6, 21, and 13, and will not risk ruining that investment should Seymour depart in 2010. Now, seems to be the opportunity to maintain the DL's strength, assuming that Jackson or Gilbert is high on the Pats list, as quality defensive linemen are nearly impossible to get selecting at #32. And enough of this talk about acquiring a 2010 first-rounder from someone this draft, so NE can draft a top ranked D-lineman a year from now. There are far too many IF's attached to that scenario -- especially if BB is high on the aforementioned two in this draft.

Currently, Jackson is consistently ranked inside the top 23, while Gilbert is consistently ranked in round two and as a late first. If I'm Belichick, and Tyson's off the board, BB may not wait until #34 to select Gilbert -- especially if he has him as a first rounder and the DE position as a need. I'm hoping that BB prefers Gilbert -- but that's a wait and see...

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Mayo and others. It's time to start making some progress on potential Pats candidates, as the general rankings seem to be all over the place. I highlighted Tyson Jackson and Jarron Gilbert as possible #23 picks because they're both considered talented full-sized linemen and would represent insurance for Seymour. We know Belichick built the Pats DL using three first rounders, selecting at #'s 6, 21, and 13, and will not risk ruining that investment should Seymour depart in 2010. Now, seems to be the opportunity to maintain the DL's strength, assuming that Jackson or Gilbert is high on the Pats list, as quality defensive linemen are nearly impossible to get selecting at #32. And enough of this talk about acquiring a 2010 first-rounder from someone this draft, so NE can draft a top ranked D-lineman a year from now. There are far too many IF's attached to that scenario -- especially if BB is high on the aforementioned two in this draft.

Currently, Jackson is consistently ranked inside the top 23, while Gilbert is consistently ranked in round two and as a late first. If I'm Belichick, and Tyson's off the board, BB may not wait until #34 to select Gilbert -- especially if he has him as a first rounder and the DE position as a need. I'm hoping that BB prefers Gilbert -- but that's a wait and see...

Gilbert reportedly has/had a private workout with NE this month. Evander Hood is scheduled to visit Gillette. Either would seem a good value in the 23/34 range. I've read nothing to date to indicate NE is interested in Jackson - Denver and Seattle are looking at him.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo and others. It's time to start making some progress on potential Pats candidates, as the general rankings seem to be all over the place. I highlighted Tyson Jackson and Jarron Gilbert as possible #23 picks because they're both considered talented full-sized linemen and would represent insurance for Seymour. We know Belichick built the Pats DL using three first rounders, selecting at #'s 6, 21, and 13, and will not risk ruining that investment should Seymour depart in 2010. Now, seems to be the opportunity to maintain the DL's strength, assuming that Jackson or Gilbert is high on the Pats list, as quality defensive linemen are nearly impossible to get selecting at #32. And enough of this talk about acquiring a 2010 first-rounder from someone this draft, so NE can draft a top ranked D-lineman a year from now. There are far too many IF's attached to that scenario -- especially if BB is high on the aforementioned two in this draft.

Currently, Jackson is consistently ranked inside the top 23, while Gilbert is consistently ranked in round two and as a late first. If I'm Belichick, and Tyson's off the board, BB may not wait until #34 to select Gilbert -- especially if he has him as a first rounder and the DE position as a need. I'm hoping that BB prefers Gilbert -- but that's a wait and see...

I'm not sure what "making some progress" means. DL is definitely in the mix to consider on the 1st day. Only the FO can decide how important the nee at DE is (which depends on how much doubt he has about keeping Seymour past 2009) and how much they like Gilbert, Jackson or others (Ziggy Hood) vs. the prospects at other positions. They're clearly doing diligence in looking at the right prospects at the different positions, and I'm sure they'll have a clear picture by draft time.

Personally I'm not a Tyson Jackson fan and I think Hood is a bit on the short side for what we usually go for, but if BB thinks they are values I'm all for it. I like Gilbert a lot as a prospect, but have to admit that it's hard to judge his body of work vs. his potential. I'm more than willing to take a shot at him if BB thinks he is the real deal. My ideal 1st day would be Barwin, Beatty, Gilbert and Delmas in some order, I'm just not sure how we get all 4 of them.

As far as the possibility of a DE in 2010, part of the fun of this kind of board is to toss around options. Whether BB wants DE or not, the ones he likes may not be available where he is willing to pick them, and thinking ahead to 2010 is not unreasonable. I'm sure the Pats are looking ahead at next year's class, so why shouldn't we? I'm not suggesting that you plan your draft around a future hope, but if you don't like the values at a position in a given year then you regroup and look towards the future. That's what the Pats did with ILB in 2007 when Belichick obviously didn't find David Harris adequate value to take at #28 and traded the pick into 2010. He obviously couldn't predict he would end up with Mayo, but he decided that the present values weren't likely to be as good as what he could probably get in the future, and in that case he was most likely right.

If BB thinks one of these guys is the real deal, then I hope he goes for them. If it ends up being more of a David Harris situation - a nice player, but not someone the Pats consider adequate value at where they are picking - then I hope they don't jump the gun. Keeping ahead of the curve is one thing. Panicking is another. I don't see us panicking to draft a DE early just because it is an important position and there is some long-term uncertainty. Only if the value is there.

 

[Seneschal2]

As far as the possibility of a DE in 2010, part of the fun of this kind of board is to toss around options. Whether BB wants DE or not, the ones he likes may not be available where he is willing to pick them, and thinking ahead to 2010 is not unreasonable. I'm sure the Pats are looking ahead at next year's class, so why shouldn't we? I'm not suggesting that you plan your draft around a future hope, but if you don't like the values at a position in a given year then you regroup and look towards the future.

Others have suggested that 2010 is strong at such and such position -- so we can wait until then to address a particular need. It's o.k. to look ahead, and your comments are common sense, as I'm well aware of the scouting process , -- but I wouldn't base my selections in this draft on next year's hopefuls -- as there are too many uncertainties. And of course VALUE is the ongoing theme that's been mentioned ad nauseum.

 

[mayoclinic]

Others have suggested that 2010 is strong at such and such position -- so we can wait until then to address a particular need. It's o.k. to look ahead, and your comments are common sense, as I'm well aware of the scouting process , -- but I wouldn't base my selections in this draft on next year's hopefuls -- as there are too many uncertainties. And of course VALUE is the ongoing theme that's been mentioned ad nauseum.

Again, if the FO thinks DE is a position of need now and likes one or more of the players available, then I think waiting until 2010 just because it is a loaded DE class would be foolhardy. But I also think that it's foolhardy to panic and reach at a position if no prospect jumps out at you just because it may become an area of need in a year or so. Presumably there's a balance that can be found.

 

[mgteich]

It takes a year for a 3-4 DE to develop if he isn't a top 10 stud. If we have a 2010 need, then 2009 is the time to draft the player. Studs being available next year doesn't help. We might not get one picking in the 30's and we shouldn't be pressured into finding a DE who can contribute immediately.

Gilbert or Hood might take a year to develop. That's fine. Even if we were to keep both Seymour AND Green, Gilbert would still be a fine addition to the rotation. However, it is more likely that one or both will not be playing for us in 2010.

 

[mesoslo]

bunting ranked barwin 2nd to curry, yet, he says barwin still needs to be developed. I find it odd that the 2nd ranked guy still needs developement. Iam guessing 3rd and 4th needs even more developement? If anything, 1st and 2nd should be players that need the least amount of developement.

 

[Revman]

I really like Ziggy Hood. If you have not watched tape on him you should. Not only is he a talented kid, he is a worker. At times he appeared a man among boys at Missouri. I see similarities between him and Warren Sapp. At 6'3-300lbs-he is closer to Warren's size than Seymours size. He has the rare moves that the good ones have. Is stout at the point of attack. Adept at shedding, very agile for a big man. I see him growing into a 3/4 end that can take away the run and excell at pressure sooner than later. Versatility is a benefit for roster as he can easily move inside in 4 man fronts.