My End of March Pats Top 50 Big Board

[mayoclinic]

The "10 players you would like on day 1" thread has gotten me thinking about how the Pats big board may possibly shape up. So, with 4 weeks till the draft, I thought I would try my own. This is just my personal view, understanding from other threads that there is wide disagreement among us about where to rank certain prospects (Barwin, Maualuga, Gilbert, etc.), and some of my rankings will doubtless be controversial.

1. BJ Raji, DT - I think he would have the greatest overall impact on our defense.
2. Aaron Curry, LB - would probably move to SILB, but could play outside as well. The most solid player in the draft.
3. Jason Smith, OT - a 10 year pro bowl OT.
4. Eugene Monroe, OT - I rank him just below Jason Smith.
5. Michael Crabtree, WR - I hate WR's in the 1st, but Moss, Welker and Crabtree would be a beautiful thing to behold.
6. Connor Barwin, OLB - controversial, I know, but I think he'll be a pro bowl 3-4 OLB for us.
7. William Beatty, OT - Barwin vs. Beatty was tough, but I'm a bit more sure about Barwin than Beatty (otherwise OT would win out).
8. Louis Delmas, S - I think he could be our Troy Polamalu.
9. Robert Ayers, DE/LB - imagine what BB could do with his versatility.
10. Everette Brown, DE/LB - if he were 2" taller he would be pushing Barwin for my top 3-4 OLB candidate.
11. Hakeem Nicks, WR - I put him just a shade behind Crabtree as a WR.
12. Sean Smith, CB/S - incredible size/speed/agility, good ball skills.
13. Jarron Gilbert, DE - has the upside to actually replace Richard Seymour.
14. Eben Britton, OT - a versatile, solid tackle who can play LT or RT.
15. Alex Mack, OG/C - another really tough call between Britton and Mack.
16. Rey Maualuga, ILB - he'd be 10 spots higher if I were convinced he were more like Brandon Spikes, but still could make an impact next to Mayo.
17. Knowshon Moreno - perfect Pats RB, but not a position of need.
18. Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB - very raw, but has the most upside at 3-4 OLB of anyone except for Barwin.
19. Tyson Jackson, DE - a bit inconsistent, but a solid 3-4 DE.
20. Michael Johnson, DE/OLB - huge upside but inconsistent, and non-existent against the run.
21. Percy Harvin - versatile offensive weapon and explosive in the open field.
22. Brandon Pettigrew, TE - not a position of need, but a great player.
23. Larry English, DE/LB - very solid player, might be best inside at SILB.
24. Darius Butler, CB - if CB were a bigger need he'd be much higher.
25. Clay Matthews, LB - I like him, but I wish I knew where he would fit.
26. William Moore, S - I'm a bit scared off by his inconsistency, but he has talent and the position is a need.
27. Alphonso Smith, CB - great ball skills, but small and average speed.
28. Eric Wood, OG/C - just a shade behind Alex Mack.
29. Vontae Davis, CB - inconsistent, but top 10 talent.
30. Patrick Chung, S - very solid player, just a shade behind the other 3.
31. Clint Sintim, LB - versatile and experienced, but not terribly athletic and a low ceiling.
32. Malcolm Jenkins, CB/S - talented, but not sure he has a position on the Pats.
33. Jamon Meredith, OT/G - versatile OL who can play inside and out
34. Evander Hood, DT/DE - could he play 3-4 DE?
35. DJ Moore, CB - like Alphonso Smith, great player but small with average speed.
36. Max Unger, OG/C - versatile 4 position OL; not sure he's tough enough
37. Donald Brown, RB - his pass catching ability out of the backfield is exceptional
38. James Casey, TE - most versatile offense player in the draft.
39. Ron Brace, DT - wide body nose tackle; where does he fit with Wilfork?
40. Kenny Britt, WR - big WR could be a future #1.
41. Brian Robiskie, WR - smooth, polished WR; ceiling may be low.
42. Darius Heyward-Bey, WR - the thought that he could be Chad Jackson II scares me.
43. Rashad Johnson, S - athletically limited but very smart and great ball skills.
44. Jeremy Maclin, WR - explosive and great return man, but poor route runner.
45. Joaquin Iglesias, WR - solid, polished possession WR.
46. Jarius Byrd, CB/S - solid, versatile DB.
47. Sherrod Martin, CB/S - amazing 3-cone and short shuttle for his size.
48. Troy Kropog, OT - could possibly become a starting NFL LT.
49. Andre Brown, RB - big, versatile back.
50. Cody Brown, DE/OLB - may possible be able to play 3-4 OLB.

Notable Omissions: Matt Stafford QB, Mark Sanchez QB, Josh Freeman QB, Chris Wells RB, Andre Smith OT, Michael Oher OT, Philip Loadholt OT/G, Duke Robinson OG, Jared Cook TE, Peria Jerry DT, Sen'Derrick Marks DT, Brian Orapko DE, James Laurinaitis ILB, Brian Cushing LB - either because there was no need at the position (QB) or because I didn't feel they fit the Pats' system.

This is pretty rough, but it was an interesting exercise.

Now go ahead and take shots at it. Enjoy.

 

[Seneschal2]

This is pretty rough, but it was an interesting exercise.

Yeah, it is difficult. I'm still weeding out my own board and won't finalize till draft day.

Now go ahead and take shots at it. Enjoy.

So I get to weed out your board instead.

I chewed off 20 of your prospects who either may not fit the Pats or will be out of reach. From the leftover 30 there are ONLY 13 serious Pats prospects (where there's little doubt).

There, that was my best shot. But you'll have to figure out who those 30 and 13 are cause I ain't tellin'.

 

[bucky]

If the Pats were to draft Raji, what role do you see him playing that he would make such a great impact? I'm thinking that he will never be as good as the Pats' top 3 DL. He can still be a very good player, I just wonder where the value is.

 

[spann31]

how doesn't michael oher fit the system?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

how doesn't michael oher fit the system?

It may have more to do with his character considering his background than his play on the field.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

An interesting exercise. I find my Top 50 took me well into NFL Draft Scout's projected 5th round.

 

[DocE]

I agree with a lot of your list and with most of the players who did not make your list.

Some comments:

BJ Raji no.1: I think I'd have him no.1 too, but I wonder if he could ever be the only NT on the roster as Wilfork is now. I see Raji more in Mike Wright's role as playing both inside and outside (obviously a much better player than Wright).

Curry/Smith/Monroe: I'd have these guys in some order 2-4, but I'd be tempted to take Smith no.2. I'd rather fill LT than SILB if I truly had the option.

Barwin/Everette Brown- I am not comfortable with Barwin this high, but your thoughts on Brown's hight mirror mine. The difference is that Brown's lack of height brings him down to just slightly ahead of Barwin/English/Mathews for me.

Gilbert- This is a guy I really like as well, but I feel like he's too much of a gamble this high. I don't think I could take him over more proven commodities such as Maualuga, Percy Harvin, and Jeremy Maclin.

I'd have Jenkins ahead of Alphonso Smith.

Even though I don't want him on the Patriots, I'd have Cushing in my top 50, though below all of your DE's and LB's except for Cody Brown.

Very astute of you (imho) to leave Oher off your list. He's the one guy during the Oline drills at the Senior Bowl and the Combine that could not understand instruction. During the combine Mayock or one of the other analysts even commented on it saying during one drill that Oher was the only player who didn't perform the drill correctly. I think you nailed most of the players that don't appear to be system fits for the Pats.

 

[mayoclinic]

An interesting exercise. I find my Top 50 took me well into NFL Draft Scout's projected 5th round.

As I filled out my list, I ended up adding in a lot of players were initially off my board. For example, I don't really want Vontae Davis as a CB for the Pats. His inconsistency scares me, I don't think he's the brightest tack in the box, and his ball skills are just average. But, if he somehow fell to the 47-58 territory (which he won't) would he be worth it? I'm not sure. And I wasn't sure if I should take off players who were all but certain not to be available by the time their (low) spot on the Pats board came up? The same kind of thing applied to a number of other players (Malcolm Jenkins, Darius Heyward-Bey, Jeremy Maclin, etc.), and could apply to players not on my board - I left Andre Smith off, but if he fell to the third round, would he be worth a gamble?

If you take of all of those players whose lack of fit for the Pats or other issues which make them much less desirable than their overall rankings would suggest they will go, then like you I end up somewhere around the 4th round by the time I get to 50. Players like Trevor Canfield, TJ Lang, Lawrence Sidbury and Sammie Lee Hill end up on my top 50 board whereas players like Vontae Davis, Malcolm Jenkins, Heyward-Bey and Maclin fall off entirely because they'll all be gone way before I would be willing to use a pick on them.

I'll try to post a more realistic board along these lines closer to the draft. As I said, it was an interesting learning experience for me. Very challenging.

 

[JoeShmoe]

No place for Jasper Brinkley Mayo?

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree with a lot of your list and with most of the players who did not make your list.

Some comments:

BJ Raji no.1: I think I'd have him no.1 too, but I wonder if he could ever be the only NT on the roster as Wilfork is now. I see Raji more in Mike Wright's role as playing both inside and outside (obviously a much better player than Wright).

Curry/Smith/Monroe: I'd have these guys in some order 2-4, but I'd be tempted to take Smith no.2. I'd rather fill LT than SILB if I truly had the option.

Barwin/Everette Brown- I am not comfortable with Barwin this high, but your thoughts on Brown's hight mirror mine. The difference is that Brown's lack of height brings him down to just slightly ahead of Barwin/English/Mathews for me.

Gilbert- This is a guy I really like as well, but I feel like he's too much of a gamble this high. I don't think I could take him over more proven commodities such as Maualuga, Percy Harvin, and Jeremy Maclin.

I'd have Jenkins ahead of Alphonso Smith.

Even though I don't want him on the Patriots, I'd have Cushing in my top 50, though below all of your DE's and LB's except for Cody Brown.

Very astute of you (imho) to leave Oher off your list. He's the one guy during the Oline drills at the Senior Bowl and the Combine that could not understand instruction. During the combine Mayock or one of the other analysts even commented on it saying during one drill that Oher was the only player who didn't perform the drill correctly. I think you nailed most of the players that don't appear to be system fits for the Pats.

Thanks for the comments, Doc.

To reply to someone's earlier comments about why Oher was left off, his mental lapses scare me (much more than Beatty, who seems quite coachable) and I'm just not sure he was what it takes upstairs to be the guy protecting Tom Brady's blindside.

I agree about Raji, which also responds to an earlier question in this thread. As I've said in a separate post, I think Raji could replace Wilfork, but his main value would be for BB to move him around - some 4 man fronts with Raji and Wilfork together, some 3 man fronts with Raji replacing Wilfork and being more of a penetrator, some 3 man fronts with Raji moving out to DE. I think his versatility and disruption would create maximum havoc for opposing offenses, and would contribute more to the bottom line success of our defense than any other player, even Curry or a stud pass rusher. http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/209694-bj-raji-hypothetical.html

Curry/Smith/Monroe is a crapshoot. I agree with you that a franchise LT generall trumps a LB, so I can understand the rationale of moving Smth and Monroe up.

If Brandon Spikes had come out, he would have probably gone around #5 on my list, just after Curry/Smith/Monroe. Of course, it's possible that some big warts would have showed up, but I think that he really is the 3-down SILB with coverage ability, leadership and smarts which I lot of people want Maualuga to be. I was very disappointed when he didn't declare, as he was my leading candidate for #23 at the time.

I didn't plan Barwin to be #6. But after the top 5 guys, I couldn't really think of anyone in the traditional "top 20" who I would take ahead of him. Everette Brown came closest, but at 6' 1 1/2" I don't think he fits the typical Pats OLB profile, which is generally 6'3" to 6'5". I left Brian Orapko off altogether because he seems to me to be a pure 4-3 DE, and I think he's way too bulky and stiff to play in space. I didn't see an RB this early, I didn't like Maclin or Heyward-Bey at WR, a didn't like Malcolm Jenkins or Vontae Davis at CB (see below), Tyson Jackson's inconsistency drops him below Gilbert on my board, and I don't think a 2-down SILB is worth that high a pick. So I ended up with Barwin.

I like Malcolm Jenkins as a prospect much more than Vontae Davis. But I just don't see where he fits on the Pats. As a CB he doesn't fit our style at all. As a FS I don't think he complements Meriweather nearly as well as Delmas or Sean Smith. Whereas I could at least envision taking a gamble on Vontae Davis because of his physical ability.

I'm not a Cushing fan, but I would have put him on the board except that I really see him as a 4-3 SAM. Maybe he could move inside to 3-4 SILB, but I just don't see the skills or mentality to play there. The same is probably true of Matthews, but his intangibles and upside intrigued me enough that I put him on the board.

Thanks again for your thoughts.

 

[Seneschal2]

Everette Brown came closest, but at 6' 1 1/2" I don't think he fits the typical Pats OLB profile, which is generally 6'3" to 6'5".

That 6-3 preference changed when Colvin and AD arrived, as they were both under 6-3 at their Combines. And if height were a deciding factor, than why bother showing interest in some of the DE/OLB prospects, as Everette Brown, Sidbury, English, Sintim, and Cody Brown, all measured under 6-3.

So, I think it's time to lower the profile to 6-2, even if we don't want to include Everette, who arguably may be the best of the bunch.

 

[mayoclinic]

Yeah, it is difficult. I'm still weeding out my own board and won't finalize till draft day.

So I get to weed out your board instead.

I chewed off 20 of your prospects who either may not fit the Pats or will be out of reach. From the leftover 30 there are ONLY 13 serious Pats prospects (where there's little doubt).

There, that was my best shot. But you'll have to figure out who those 30 and 13 are cause I ain't tellin'.

That's easy. Let's make some assumptions:

1. The top 5 guys listed will all be out of reach.
2. The Pats will not consider a QB in the first 4 rounds.
3. The Pats will not consider a RB in the first 2 rounds.
4. The Pats probably won't go CB, TE or WR in the first 2 rounds.
5. Brandon Pettigrew is off the board, since we already have Chris Baker.

Now my top 30 becomes something like this (really serious or likely prospects in bold):

1. Connor Barwin, OLB
2. William Beatty, OT
3. Louis Delmas, S
4. Robert Ayers, DE/LB
5. Everette Brown, OLB
6. Hakeem Nicks, WR - probably won't go WR day 1
7. Sean Smith, CB/S - unlikely unless Delmas is gone
8. Jarron Gilbert, DE
9. Eben Britton, OT - will probably be gone before I would take him
10. Alex Mack, OT - will probably be gone before I would take him
11. Rey Maualuga, ILB - will probably be gone before I would take him
12. Aaron Maybin, OLB - will probably be gone before I would take him
13. Tyson Jackson, DE - will probably be gone before I would take him
14. Michael Johnson, DE/OLB - unlikely but still possible
15. Percy Harvin, WR - probably won't go WR on day 1
16. Larry English, DE/OLB
17. Darius Butler, CB
18. Clay Matthews, LB
19. William Moore, S
20. Eric Wood, OG/C
21. Patrick Chung, S
22. Clint Sintim, LB
23. Jamon Meredith, OT/G
24. Max Unger, OG/C
25. James Casey, TE/H-back
26. Rashad Johnson, S
27. Troy Kropog, OT
28. Andre Brown, RB
29. Lawrence Sidbury, DE/LB
30. Cody Brown, DE/LB
31. Sherrod Martin, CB/S
32. Jarius Byrd, CB/S

So I have 30 prospects with 15 highlighted as particularly likely to be serious possibilities. Lawrence Sidbury is a new addition on the modified list. My 15 highlighted players fall into 2 distinct groups: an early group (players who I would consider at 23 and 34) and a late group (players who I would consider at 47 and 58).

 

[BlackFrancis]

So, I misread your line, "Take your shots at it," to mean, "Post your own," and wound up doing my own draft board before re-reading your post. I truly don't mean to overshadow the work you've done on yours but it took so long to compile this damned thing, I kind of have to post it somewhere.

Note on omissions: Some are projected busts, some aren't needs or won't fit, some I probably forgot.

1. Aaron Curry, LB - In my opinion, combining Curry with Mayo and the Patriots front 3 would completely deny the opposition any chance of running or passing inside the hash marks with any hope of success.
2. Malcolm Jenkins, CB - I suppose I can understand how the best CB in college football would be downgraded given a slightly sub-par 40 time at the combine if one suffer massive head trauma.
3. Brian Orakpo, DE/LB - I'm fairly convinced he can play in space but I'm not sure he has the hips to stay with a RB or TE in coverage. Still, he would be a monster coming off the edge on the weak side.
4. Eugene Monroe, OT - He was the best LT in the country last season.
5. BJ Raji, DT - I'd seriously consider switching more to a 4-3 to utilize Raji as a UT.
6. Jason Smith, OT - I believe a lot of folks are projecting with Smith but have to admit, the upside is tantalizing.
7. Michael Oher, OT - He would strengthen the RT position, which at the moment is certainly upgradable.
8. Michael Johnson, DE/LB - Heresy, I know. With that acknowledgment, I believe Johnson has the both the highest ceiling and highest floor of all the OLB candidates other than Curry and Orakpo.
9. Jeremy Maclin, WR - Maclin would be unbelievable in the Patriots system.
10. Everette Brown, DE/LB - Like many others, Brown's height scares me. His coverage ability and his propensity for disappearing also scares me. That said, it is awfully tough to watch him play and not come away convinced he would add instant pressure from the outside.
11. Rey Maualuga, LB - He might lack technique. He might be mentally ******ed. I still think he'd be one of the best TEDs in the NFL.
12. Alex Mack, C/G - Mack would have excellent value as someone who could play all over the line and play well.
13. Andre Smith, OT - His offseason has been bizarre but I am unconvinced Smith is insane. Too talented to pass up.
14. Vontae Davis, CB - I really don't want to like him but Davis is too skilled to cross off the board.
15. Aaron Maybin, LB - I'd be holding my breath and crossing my fingers if the Patriots select Maybin. Massive risk but he's got uncapped potential.
16. Connor Barwin, LB - Love the upside but remain terrified of the floor.
17. Clint Sintim, LB - He's a safer pick than the two I have listed ahead of him but I'm not seeing many All Pros from him.
18. Louis Delmas, S - I love Delmas but I have to acknowledge his floor is very low.
19. William Beatty, OT - I acutely fear one year wonders but his tools are drool inducing.
20. Jarron Gilbert, DE - Insane athleticism for such a huge man.
21. Knowshon Moreno, RB - He's very, very good but gets knocked down the board for a team with 27 productive RBs.
22. Eben Britton, OT - Should have a productive career.
23. William Moore, S - He completely sucked last season but man, oh man, was he good as a junior.
24. Robert Ayers, DE/LB - He's been rising fast. While I may not see the versatility that some do, he'd be an intriguing project.
25. Percy Harvin, WR/RB - His potential to bust scares the hell out of me but he has undeniable talents.
26. Brandon Pettigrew, TE - Love him as a player but I'd hate to take him early.
27. Ziggy Hood, DT/DE - I'm not sure if he could do it but if he could play 2 gap as an end, he could be a monster.
28. Larry English, DE/LB - I have my doubts about his ability to work as an OLB but the dude can apply pressure.
29. Jared Cook, TE - Again, I'd hate picking a TE early but Cook is a freakshow talent.
30. Sean Smith, S - Definitely has the potential to start at FS.
31. Jamon Meredith, OT - Strong, athletic olineman.
32. Brian Robiskie, WR - A lot of folks love Robiskie.
33.. Eric Wood, C - Versatile, tough and smart.
34. Tyson Jackson, DE - I don't think he will be able to rush the passer as a pro but can't see how he wouldn't turn into a rotational lineman.
35. Ron Brace, DT - He's rather unathletic but Brace would make for nice DT depth.
36. Macho Harris, CB - I love Harris and believe he'd fit in perfectly with what Belichick looks for in corners.
37. Lawrence Sidbury, DE/LB - Competition is a massive concern but he's athletic as hell.
38. Alphonso Smith, CB - He's small and slow but very productive.
39. Darius Heyward-Bey, WR - Just a massive risk/massive reward guy.
40. Fili Moala, DT/DE - Might be a lazy slug but his potential is intriguing.
41. Javon Ringer, RB - I know RB isn't a need and I know this is too high for Ringer but I love him as a Faulk replacement.
42. Herman Johnson, OG - He probably cannot handle the Patriots zone/man combo and his offseason was sort of awful but this guy dominated last season.
43. Chip Vaughn, S - He might be valued too high to be a realistic pick but I really like Vaughn's game and potential.
44. Dorell Scott, DT/DE - Can he move to an end? If he can, he'd be wrecking ball.
45. Antoine Caldwell, C/G - Caldwell would definitely fit on the Patriots line.
46. James Laurinatis, LB - He's too small and everybody says he can't shed blocks but it is tough to overlook his massive production in college.
47. Max Unger, C - I am terrified he'll be a bust but he was a highly successful player for Oregon.
48. Donald Brown, RB - I should have him higher up my list but for some reason, I can't pull the trigger with Brown.
49. Shawn Nelson, TE - Too talented to leave off a top 50.
50. Brian Cushing, LB - Smells like Katzenmoyer to me but I can't leave him off, I guess.

 

[mayoclinic]

So, I misread your line, "Take your shots at it," to mean, "Post your own," and wound up doing my own draft board before re-reading your post. I truly don't mean to overshadow the work you've done on yours but it took so long to compile this damned thing, I kind of have to post it somewhere.

Note on omissions: Some are projected busts, some aren't needs or won't fit, some I probably forgot.

1. Aaron Curry, LB - In my opinion, combining Curry with Mayo and the Patriots front 3 would completely deny the opposition any chance of running or passing inside the hash marks with any hope of success.
2. Malcolm Jenkins, CB - I suppose I can understand how the best CB in college football would be downgraded given a slightly sub-par 40 time at the combine if one suffer massive head trauma.
3. Brian Orakpo, DE/LB - I'm fairly convinced he can play in space but I'm not sure he has the hips to stay with a RB or TE in coverage. Still, he would be a monster coming off the edge on the weak side.
4. Eugene Monroe, OT - He was the best LT in the country last season.
5. BJ Raji, DT - I'd seriously consider switching more to a 4-3 to utilize Raji as a UT.
6. Jason Smith, OT - I believe a lot of folks are projecting with Smith but have to admit, the upside is tantalizing.
7. Michael Oher, OT - He would strengthen the RT position, which at the moment is certainly upgradable.
8. Michael Johnson, DE/LB - Heresy, I know. With that acknowledgment, I believe Johnson has the both the highest ceiling and highest floor of all the OLB candidates other than Curry and Orakpo.
9. Jeremy Maclin, WR - Maclin would be unbelievable in the Patriots system.
10. Everette Brown, DE/LB - Like many others, Brown's height scares me. His coverage ability and his propensity for disappearing also scares me. That said, it is awfully tough to watch him play and not come away convinced he would add instant pressure from the outside.
11. Rey Maualuga, LB - He might lack technique. He might be mentally ******ed. I still think he'd be one of the best TEDs in the NFL.
12. Alex Mack, C/G - Mack would have excellent value as someone who could play all over the line and play well.
13. Andre Smith, OT - His offseason has been bizarre but I am unconvinced Smith is insane. Too talented to pass up.
14. Vontae Davis, CB - I really don't want to like him but Davis is too skilled to cross off the board.
15. Aaron Maybin, LB - I'd be holding my breath and crossing my fingers if the Patriots select Maybin. Massive risk but he's got uncapped potential.
16. Connor Barwin, LB - Love the upside but remain terrified of the floor.
17. Clint Sintim, LB - He's a safer pick than the two I have listed ahead of him but I'm not seeing many All Pros from him.
18. Louis Delmas, S - I love Delmas but I have to acknowledge his floor is very low.
19. William Beatty, OT - I acutely fear one year wonders but his tools are drool inducing.
20. Jarron Gilbert, DE - Insane athleticism for such a huge man.
21. Knowshon Moreno, RB - He's very, very good but gets knocked down the board for a team with 27 productive RBs.
22. Eben Britton, OT - Should have a productive career.
23. William Moore, S - He completely sucked last season but man, oh man, was he good as a junior.
24. Robert Ayers, DE/LB - He's been rising fast. While I may not see the versatility that some do, he'd be an intriguing project.
25. Percy Harvin, WR/RB - His potential to bust scares the hell out of me but he has undeniable talents.
26. Brandon Pettigrew, TE - Love him as a player but I'd hate to take him early.
27. Ziggy Hood, DT/DE - I'm not sure if he could do it but if he could play 2 gap as an end, he could be a monster.
28. Larry English, DE/LB - I have my doubts about his ability to work as an OLB but the dude can apply pressure.
29. Jared Cook, TE - Again, I'd hate picking a TE early but Cook is a freakshow talent.
30. Sean Smith, S - Definitely has the potential to start at FS.
31. Jamon Meredith, OT - Strong, athletic olineman.
32. Brian Robiskie, WR - A lot of folks love Robiskie.
33.. Eric Wood, C - Versatile, tough and smart.
34. Tyson Jackson, DE - I don't think he will be able to rush the passer as a pro but can't see how he wouldn't turn into a rotational lineman.
35. Ron Brace, DT - He's rather unathletic but Brace would make for nice DT depth.
36. Macho Harris, CB - I love Harris and believe he'd fit in perfectly with what Belichick looks for in corners.
37. Lawrence Sidbury, DE/LB - Competition is a massive concern but he's athletic as hell.
38. Alphonso Smith, CB - He's small and slow but very productive.
39. Darius Heyward-Bey, WR - Just a massive risk/massive reward guy.
40. Fili Moala, DT/DE - Might be a lazy slug but his potential is intriguing.
41. Javon Ringer, RB - I know RB isn't a need and I know this is too high for Ringer but I love him as a Faulk replacement.
42. Herman Johnson, OG - He probably cannot handle the Patriots zone/man combo and his offseason was sort of awful but this guy dominated last season.
43. Chip Vaughn, S - He might be valued too high to be a realistic pick but I really like Vaughn's game and potential.
44. Dorell Scott, DT/DE - Can he move to an end? If he can, he'd be wrecking ball.
45. Antoine Caldwell, C/G - Caldwell would definitely fit on the Patriots line.
46. James Laurinatis, LB - He's too small and everybody says he can't shed blocks but it is tough to overlook his massive production in college.
47. Max Unger, C - I am terrified he'll be a bust but he was a highly successful player for Oregon.
48. Donald Brown, RB - I should have him higher up my list but for some reason, I can't pull the trigger with Brown.
49. Shawn Nelson, TE - Too talented to leave off a top 50.
50. Brian Cushing, LB - Smells like Katzenmoyer to me but I can't leave him off, I guess.

First of all, the more the merrier. Anyone who has an alternative board is more than welcome to post it here if they don't want to do so elsewhere. You've obviously put a lot of work into it, and it's a difficult exercise.

We disagree quite a bit on some players, and can't know who's right and who's wrong (or if we're both wrong). I'll address only a few of them.

My board was specific to the Pats. It wasn't a general ranking of prospects, it was my assessment of who fit the Pats system and might be available. So while I think Malcolm Jenkins and Brian Orapko are legitimate top 20 (possibly top 10) players, I just don't think they fit the Pats.

Jenkins not only ran slowly at both the combine and his pro day, he showed less than optimal hips. He did have a great 3-cone, but I question whether he can play CB for the Pats given what we tend to like from our corners. He'll probably be a great FS, but I'm not sure I see his style as complimenting Meriweather as well as a Delmas, Moore or Chung, and I probably prefer Sean Smith if we are going for a FS opposite Meriweather. So that's why I dropped him down on my first board and took him off my modified board altogether.

I think Orapko is an outstanding 4-3 DE, but like Vernon Gholston, I think he is too muscular and stiff to play in space. He's a pass-rushing demon, but we demand much more complex and subtle skills from our 3-4 OLBs. I was dubious about Gholston last year, and I'm dubious about Orapko now. I think he's a legitimate top 10 pick in the right scheme, but not for the Pats.

There's no doubt in my mind that Andre Smith and Michael Oher are top talents at OT. Especially Smith. But even before his maturity issues arose, Smith seemed like more of a road grader than we prefer at OT. And Oher has huge mental lapses which scare me, and trouble grasping complex schemes - I'm just not sure I'm willing to trust Brady's backside to him. I don't question either being 1st round picks, I just don't think they are right for the Pats.

Again, nice job.

I love your Cushing/Katzenmoyer comparison, BTW.

 

[BlackFrancis]

First of all, the more the merrier. Anyone who has an alternative board is more than welcome to post it here if they don't want to do so elsewhere. You've obviously put a lot of work into it, and it's a difficult exercise.

We disagree quite a bit on some players, and can't know who's right and who's wrong (or if we're both wrong). I'll address only a few of them.

My board was specific to the Pats. It wasn't a general ranking of prospects, it was my assessment of who fit the Pats system and might be available. So while I think Malcolm Jenkins and Brian Orapko are legitimate top 20 (possibly top 10) players, I just don't think they fit the Pats.

Jenkins not only ran slowly at both the combine and his pro day, he showed less than optimal hips. He did have a great 3-cone, but I question whether he can play CB for the Pats given what we tend to like from our corners. He'll probably be a great FS, but I'm not sure I see his style as complimenting Meriweather as well as a Delmas, Moore or Chung, and I probably prefer Sean Smith if we are going for a FS opposite Meriweather. So that's why I dropped him down on my first board and took him off my modified board altogether.

I think Orapko is an outstanding 4-3 DE, but like Vernon Gholston, I think he is too muscular and stiff to play in space. He's a pass-rushing demon, but we demand much more complex and subtle skills from our 3-4 OLBs. I was dubious about Gholston last year, and I'm dubious about Orapko now. I think he's a legitimate top 10 pick in the right scheme, but not for the Pats.

There's no doubt in my mind that Andre Smith and Michael Oher are top talents at OT. Especially Smith. But even before his maturity issues arose, Smith seemed like more of a road grader than we prefer at OT. And Oher has huge mental lapses which scare me, and trouble grasping complex schemes - I'm just not sure I'm willing to trust Brady's backside to him. I don't question either being 1st round picks, I just don't think they are right for the Pats.

Again, nice job.

I love your Cushing/Katzenmoyer comparison, BTW.

It is kind of funny, in that there were a couple of times I looked at your list as a point of reference and saw myself writing something similar for a player at an identical ranking and changed it, in order ensure it didn't mirror yours.

As far as Jenkins goes, this guy was the best CB in college football for two straight years IMO. Even if his 40 time is somehow indicative of a lack of game speed, there are plenty of ways to compensate for that. After watching him as a junior and a senior, I'd be legitimately floored if he were to fail at corner as a pro.

On Orakpo, I also went about this list from a Patriots perspective, so I'll defend the ranking there. While I concede he's heavily muscled, I'm not sure I'd call him "stiff", per se. Then again, I don't think most of Gholston's problems were attributable to stiffness. I'd be nervous to see how Orakpo would deal with backpedaling into coverage but I don't think he'd have any trouble sliding out and setting the edge. I won't harp on this much, as there really isn't much chance he'll get drafted as a LB, never mind by the Patriots. Still, I'd love to see what he could do off the weak side as a LB in both run and pass situations, thus the high ranking.

With regards to Smith and Oher, I think they are both risky but from a BPA perspective, I couldn't justify leaving them off. I see both of them potentially upgrading Kaczur.

Thanks for the reply. As an exercise, it was certainly different, as you are forced to weigh a load of variables and forced to leave off a bunch of sleepers.

 

[BradyManny]

That's easy. Let's make some assumptions:

1. The top 5 guys listed will all be out of reach.
2. The Pats will not consider a QB in the first 4 rounds.
3. The Pats will not consider a RB in the first 2 rounds.
4. The Pats probably won't go CB, TE or WR in the first 2 rounds.
5. Brandon Pettigrew is off the board, since we already have Chris Baker.

Now my top 30 becomes something like this (really serious or likely prospects in bold):

1. Connor Barwin, OLB
2. William Beatty, OT
3. Louis Delmas, S
4. Robert Ayers, DE/LB
5. Everette Brown, OLB
6. Hakeem Nicks, WR - probably won't go WR day 1
7. Sean Smith, CB/S - unlikely unless Delmas is gone
8. Jarron Gilbert, DE
9. Eben Britton, OT - will probably be gone before I would take him
10. Alex Mack, OT - will probably be gone before I would take him
11. Rey Maualuga, ILB - will probably be gone before I would take him
12. Aaron Maybin, OLB - will probably be gone before I would take him
13. Tyson Jackson, DE - will probably be gone before I would take him
14. Michael Johnson, DE/OLB - unlikely but still possible
15. Percy Harvin, WR - probably won't go WR on day 1
16. Larry English, DE/OLB
17. Darius Butler, CB
18. Clay Matthews, LB
19. William Moore, S
20. Eric Wood, OG/C
21. Patrick Chung, S
22. Clint Sintim, LB
23. Jamon Meredith, OT/G
24. Max Unger, OG/C
25. James Casey, TE/H-back
26. Rashad Johnson, S
27. Troy Kropog, OT
28. Andre Brown, RB
29. Lawrence Sidbury, DE/LB
30. Cody Brown, DE/LB
31. Sherrod Martin, CB/S
32. Jarius Byrd, CB/S

So I have 30 prospects with 15 highlighted as particularly likely to be serious possibilities. Lawrence Sidbury is a new addition on the modified list. My 15 highlighted players fall into 2 distinct groups: an early group (players who I would consider at 23 and 34) and a late group (players who I would consider at 47 and 58).

Great stuff, Mayoclinic. I have a similar board, probably b/c my opinions are so shaped by guys like you and the other draftniks here...the only time I ever am unclear on something is when a) what I saw of a player doesn't match what the patsfans draftniks think or b) when patsfans draftniks disagree...I never know what to do about that.

The only things that really jump out at me in terms of my own preferences are that I'd have Sintim much higher, Sean Smith lower, and Robiskie on the list, and a few other minor tweaks. I agree with your "gone before I'd take him" labels, there are a bunch of guys I feel that way about in this draft.

 

[mayoclinic]

The only things that really jump out at me in terms of my own preferences are that I'd have Sintim much higher, Sean Smith lower, and Robiskie on the list, and a few other minor tweaks. I agree with your "gone before I'd take him" labels, there are a bunch of guys I feel that way about in this draft.

Robiskie should be on the list, no question. Not sure how I missed that. I don't see Sintim's ceiling as being very high, but I recognize that most would have him higher than I do. Similarly I think Sean Smith's ceiling is very high, but I recognize that most would have him lower than I do. All very valid points.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

There's no doubt in my mind that Andre Smith and Michael Oher are top talents at OT. Especially Smith. But even before his maturity issues arose, Smith seemed like more of a road grader than we prefer at OT. And Oher has huge mental lapses which scare me, and trouble grasping complex schemes - I'm just not sure I'm willing to trust Brady's backside to him. I don't question either being 1st round picks, I just don't think they are right for the Pats.

When did you see mental laspes by Oher? Are you reading this out of a draft guide? Unless you or the draft guide have an intimate knowledge of the Ole Miss line calls and protection schemes, it is really hard to label a mistake made on the OL as a mental laspe by one OT.
Now it is easy to say a player gets lazy or underestimates an opponent. (see A. Caldwell of Alabama against Utah in the bowl game) But mental laspes? How did you get to be an expert on mental laspes.

You should go back and watch the Ole Miss - Florida game and see an OT that had a monster game against a very good, fast and tough defense.

 

[mayoclinic]

Two weeks after I posted this, here's my updated top 50 big board for the Pats:

1. BJ Raji, DT - I think he would have the greatest overall impact on our defense.
2. Aaron Curry, LB - would probably move to SILB, but could play outside as well. The most solid player in the draft.
3. Jason Smith, OT - a 10 year pro bowl OT.
4. Eugene Monroe, OT - I rank him just below Jason Smith.
5. Malcolm Jenkins, DB - gotta figure BB would make use of him; outside chance he could slip to 23.
6. Michael Crabtree, WR - I hate WR's in the 1st, but Moss, Welker and Crabtree would be a beautiful thing to behold.
7. Connor Barwin, OLB - controversial, I know, but I think he'll be a pro bowl 3-4 OLB for us.
8. William Beatty, OT - Barwin vs. Beatty was tough, but I'm a bit more sure about Barwin than Beatty (otherwise OT would win out).
9. Louis Delmas, S - I think he could be our Troy Polamalu, or at least Michael Griffin.
10. Jarren Gilbert, DE - has the upside to actually replace Richard Seymour.
11. Darius Butler, CB - perfect Pats type CB; great footwork and overall skills.
12. Robert Ayers, DE/LB - imagine what BB could do with his versatility.
13. Everette Brown, DE/LB - if he were 2" taller he would be pushing Barwin for my top 3-4 OLB candidate.
14. Clay Matthews, LB, USC - not sure where he fits, but his fluidity and cover skills are beautiful. Maybe an SILB.
15. Hakeem Nicks, WR - I put him just a shade behind Crabtree as a WR.
16. Sean Smith, CB/S - incredible size/speed/agility, good ball skills.
17. Rey Maualuga, ILB - he'd be 10 spots higher if I were convinced he were more like Brandon Spikes, but still could make an impact next to Mayo.
18. Donald Brown, RB - tremendous pass catching skills and great vision.
19. Eben Britton, OT - a versatile, solid tackle who can play LT or RT.
20. Alex Mack, OG/C - another really tough call between Britton and Mack.
21. Knowshon Moreno - perfect Pats RB, but not a position of need.
22. Evander "Ziggy" Hood, DE. Not the upside of Gilbert, but very solid.
23. Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB - very raw, but has the most upside at 3-4 OLB of anyone except for Barwin.
24. Larry English - very solid player, might be best inside at SILB.
25. Tyson Jackson, DE - a bit inconsistent, but a solid 3-4 DE.
26. William Moore, S - I'm a bit scared off by his inconsistency, but he has talent and the position is a need.
27. Michael Johnson, DE/OLB - huge upside but inconsistent, and non-existent against the run.
28. Percy Harvin - versatile offensive weapon and explosive in the open field.
29. Brandon Pettigrew, TE - not a position of need, but a great player.
30. Alphonso Smith, CB - great ball skills, but small and average speed.
31. Eric Wood, OG/C - just a shade behind Alex Mack.
32. Patrick Chung, S - very solid player, just a shade behind the other 3.
33. Clint Sintim, LB - versatile and experienced, but not terribly athletic and a low ceiling.
34. Jamon Meredith, OT/G - versatile OL who can play inside and out
35. DJ Moore, CB - like Alphonso Smith, great player but small with average speed.
36. Max Unger, OG/C - versatile 4 position OL; not sure he's tough enough
37. James Casey, TE - most versatile offense player in the draft.
38. Ron Brace, DT - wide body nose tackle; where does he fit with Wilfork?
39. Lawrence Sidbury, DE/OLB - extremely athletic player with a nice movement for his size.
40. Jason Williams, LB - extremely athletic player a bit reminiscent of Brandon Spikes.
41. T.J. Lang, OG - versatile player who can play inside or out.
42. Kenny Britt, WR - big WR could be a future #1.
43. Brian Robiskie, WR - smooth, polished WR; ceiling may be low.
44. Rashad Johnson, S - athletically limited but very smart and great ball skills.
45. Jonathan Luigs, C - solid interior line prospect.
46. Sherrod Martin, CB/S - amazing 3-cone and short shuttle for his size.
47. Troy Kropog, OT - could possibly become a starting NFL LT.
48. Andre Brown, RB - big, versatile back.
49. Dorell Scott, DT - big interior defender who could back up Wilfork.
50. Cody Brown, DE/OLB - may possible be able to play 3-4 OLB.

 

[Seneschal2]

Mayo,

Most, if not all of your picks are round 1-3 projections. From your first 29, as many as 25 are likely first rounders. Obviously these are players you like, but I guess I'm confused as to your objective here. Do you really think Belichick has that many players as potential Pats prospects -- especially in round one? No major criticism intended -- just wondering...