5 who stayed, 5 who came out

[mayoclinic]

Looking at NationalFootballPost's top 100 list from January 4 reminded me of some of the players who nearly came out this year but didn't, as well as some who surprisingly made the jump, and how they can affect the character of a draft.

Consider 5 of the following players who almost came out this year but didn't, and 5 who unexpectedly came out:

Players who almost came out, but didn't:

1. Brandon Spikes, ILB. Was rumored to be declaring up to the last minute. Would have been a nice choice at #23, and a much better complement to Mayo than Maualuga as a 3-down SILB.

2. Gerald McCoy, DT. Would probably have been a top-10 pick and might have pushed BJ Raji down into the teens, within reach. Penetrating DTs tend to go higher than wide-bodies, kind of like Tommie Harris vs. Vince Wilfork.

3. Taylor Mays, S. No one can figure out why he didn't come out. Would be a concensus top-15 pick and probably the first DB off the board, whereas he may well be the second S taken in 2010 after Eric Berry.

4. Eric Norwood, DE/LB. Declared and then withdrew his name. Would have been a great SILB prospect in the #58 or 89 territory.

5. Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB. Announced he was staying at Texas at the last minute. An uber-athletic freak, 6'4", 250#, with LB experience. Would have given Connor Barwin a run for his money as the most athletic 3-4 OLB candidate.

Honorable mention: Sam Bradford, QB; Ciron Black, OT; James Hardy, DE/OLB; Brandon LaFell, WR; Jermaine Gresham, TE.

Players who unexpectedly came out:

1. Mark Sanchez, QB. The Matt Cassel situation might have played out differently with one less first round caliber QB in the draft.

2. Josh Freeman, QB. See Mark Sanchez. Not NFL ready, but will be a 1st round pick anyway.

3. Eben Britton, OT. Probably filled in where Ciron Black was expected to fall.

4. Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB. Generally not considered NFL ready, but will probably go top 20 anyway.

5. Michael Crabtree, WR. Was 50/50 for a while. Should be ready, and will likely go top 10.

It's a very different draft if you swap those players around, or if you add/subtract just a couple of them.

The Pats seem pretty good at finding players no matter how deep the draft or where they pick. If picking at the end of a very weak draft, as in 2005, they seem to find a lot of good prospects.

 

[maverick4]

mc is one of the best new posters I've seen in a long time.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Taylor Mays would have been the most ideal pick for me. I thought for sure he would enter the draft. In fact, having him pair up with Merriweather's ball hawk style would be the perfect compliment. Mays is bigger, faster version of Rodney Harrison who hits like a tun of bricks and plays like an outside LB.

 

[mayoclinic]

mc is one of the best new posters I've seen in a long time.

Thank you. Hope you liked the thread.

The idea came to me today when Patchick referred to a NFP top 100 list from early January, and when I looked at it I found a lot of players who ended up not coming out, many at the last minute. We've all been debating Barwin vs. English and Matthews for almost 3 months now. What would it be like if we had Kindle or Hardy to add to the mix?

If the 5 players I mentioned who stayed had come out, we could be discussing the following:

1. Whether Raji might slide to the late teens and be worth trading up for, or whether Brandon Spikes would last to #23?

2. Which 3-4 OLB to take at #34, Barwin or Kindle?

3. With Taylor Mays going top 15, would there be a greater likelihood of the remaining 4 safety options sliding to 47?

4. Could Eric Norwood be a 3-down SILB worthy of #58?

Similarly, if Sanchez and/or Freeman hadn't come out, would the predicted Cassel stampede that didn't happen have happened?

It would have been a different 3 months.

 

[BritPat]

Had Spikes declared I'd have been pushing hard for him at #23, although the one that left me most disappointed was Ciron Black.

 

[BritPat]

And no mention of Mt. Cody?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Similarly, if Sanchez and/or Freeman hadn't come out, would the predicted Cassel stampede that didn't happen have happened?

I was thinking about this the other day—and the more I think about it, the more I doubt it. I think the "Patriot effect" + his $14.6M tag salary would scare most teams off regardless.

It would have been a different 3 months.

+1.

 

[TriplecHamp]

If Gresham came out and was sitting at #23 we better have gave Him a look. Which reminds me if Pettigrew is sitting at #34 would we dare? What about Mt.Cody would he go before or after Raji this year?

 

[mayoclinic]

If Gresham came out and was sitting at #23 we better have gave Him a look. Which reminds me if Pettigrew is sitting at #34 would we dare? What about Mt.Cody would he go before or after Raji this year?

After. Cody is more of a Ron Brace type, purely a massive run stuffer, and probably a 2-down guy right now. Going back was a good move for him - he needs to lose a bit of weight and get in better shape. He would have gone in between Raji and Brace, I expect.

I like Pettigrew but I see him as a slightly more talented Chris Baker, so I don't see him as an option. Gresham is more Watson-like with slightly less raw speed and much better hands.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Terrence Cody was a sure fire 1st rounder if he came out this year. I think there would of been a heated discussion between Raji and Cody. Ofcourse combines would of done some talking for Raji. And of course the Senior bowl as well. He could of been a top 10? Who knows?

Codys weight would of scared me a little too though. He was at 410 pounds at one point and brought it down to 362 this season. The positive is he put the work and dedication to get the weight off. But who knows for how long after he signs the NFL contract. No denying his talent though. He is a friggin monster against the run who lead a defense to a 73 yards against in 08 with no 100 yard rushers in a always tough SEC. Turned Knowshawn Moreno into a no show with 34yards and 1 TD in garbage time.

 

[MetalBleachers]

I know this is another thread, but the five who stayed have boosted the 2010 draft to the point where I wonder how many Pats picks will be traded to the future. Think about it: 4-5 high end contributors this year, 4-5 next year, that could work out to 7-8 starters in 2-3 years.

 

[patchick]

I know this is another thread, but the five who stayed have boosted the 2010 draft to the point where I wonder how many Pats picks will be traded to the future. Think about it: 4-5 high end contributors this year, 4-5 next year, that could work out to 7-8 starters in 2-3 years.

Perhaps, but there are always "those who stayed." Last year we were all talking about the likes of Malcolm Jenkins, Rey Maualuga, James Laurinatis and Tyson Jackson. Personally, I love the talent I'm looking at from 23-58 this year.

 

[mayoclinic]

Perhaps, but there are always "those who stayed." Last year we were all talking about the likes of Malcolm Jenkins, Rey Maualuga, James Laurinatis and Tyson Jackson. Personally, I love the talent I'm looking at from 23-58 this year.

I love the talent from 20 until about 50, but notice a drop-off after that - still very solid, but not quite at the same level. I think that if someone we want doesn't fall to us at 58 that we strongly consider trading the #58 pick into 2010. BB loves stashing away extra draft picks, and even with one traded we will have one of the richest hauls in the draft.

The point of my OP was mainly how dramatically the shape of the draft changes with very few player changes in terms of who declares and who doesn't. I think that it tends to average out over the years. 2010 may be very, very good, but I'm quite happy with 2009.

 

[Coach42]

I think what is really interesting is what people are going to think about those players you listed next year when there is that much more game tape to scrutinize. If you took a poll at this time last year and gave Pats fans the choice of Maualuga, Laurinatis, or Mayo, Mayo would have been 3 of 3. One year later nobody in their right mind would trade Mayo for either guy. Same thing with William Moore, Matt Leinhart, Michael Oher and Malcolm Jenkins, If any of those guys had come out as Juniors they would have been selected much high. I wonder if highly thought of Juniors are going to start noticing this trend, (i.e. Mark Sanchez) and skipping out early if they have even a slight chance of becoming a first rounder.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Terrence Cody was a sure fire 1st rounder if he came out this year. I think there would of been a heated discussion between Raji and Cody. Ofcourse combines would of done some talking for Raji. And of course the Senior bowl as well. He could of been a top 10? Who knows?

Codys weight would of scared me a little too though. He was at 410 pounds at one point and brought it down to 362 this season. The positive is he put the work and dedication to get the weight off. But who knows for how long after he signs the NFL contract. No denying his talent though. He is a friggin monster against the run who lead a defense to a 73 yards against in 08 with no 100 yard rushers in a always tough SEC. Turned Knowshawn Moreno into a no show with 34yards and 1 TD in garbage time.

Amen my brother, I have been saying it since October. Mount Cody is a once in a generation pure 3-4 NT. Completely impossible for opposing offenses to run up the middle against him.

It might have taken 4 of the top 6 pciks in this year's draft for BB to trade up high enough to get Cody, but well worth it.

 

[TealSox]

Amen my brother, I have been saying it since October. Mount Cody is a once in a generation pure 3-4 NT. Completely impossible for opposing offenses to run up the middle against him.

It might have taken 4 of the top 6 pciks in this year's draft for BB to trade up high enough to get Cody, but well worth it.

I would love to have Terrence Cody in a Pats uniform. 6'5", 365 is like having Ted Washington back in the middle. Hopefully his knee is healing after his October injury and he can progress this next season.

Cody would had been the top talent at his position, just as Taylor Mays would had been the top talent at his position. Now the Pats will have to look at Delmas and Moore at the safety position, which seem a long way from "Mays-like" talent.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

I think what is really interesting is what people are going to think about those players you listed next year when there is that much more game tape to scrutinize. If you took a poll at this time last year and gave Pats fans the choice of Maualuga, Laurinatis, or Mayo, Mayo would have been 3 of 3. One year later nobody in their right mind would trade Mayo for either guy. Same thing with William Moore, Matt Leinhart, Michael Oher and Malcolm Jenkins, If any of those guys had come out as Juniors they would have been selected much high. I wonder if highly thought of Juniors are going to start noticing this trend, (i.e. Mark Sanchez) and skipping out early if they have even a slight chance of becoming a first rounder.

Excellent point, Coach, and one that I agree with. You see this in the NBA a lot...guys that get drafted really high would not be taken so high were they to stay in school. Tyrus Thomas comes to mind for you hoop fans out there. Tyler Hansbrough is a guy I feel bad for to a degree because nobody can simply appreciate his stellar college play, they are too busy pointing out how he will fail to be a star as a pro.

I think that certain guys will see that those who have more game film have more knocks against them, and maybe declare before they are ready. I imagine it is happening now to a degree. But coming out early comes with a risk too: if you have not yet properly developed, you will not go where you're hoping. You may go undrafted entirely. For some teams, that lack of game film and lack of game experience will be a major detriment. Overall, I prefer the guys that have production and experience and game film. Think about Mayo; yes he was a junior, but he had a lot of playing experience as a two year starter in a big conference.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's an early 2010 first round mock from Walterfootball.com with some of the prospects discussed in this thread:

WalterFootball.com: 2010 NFL Mock Draft

Some prospects of interest:

#3 - Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas, who I had rated along with Connor Barwin as my top 3-4 OLB prospect in early January: "Sergio Kindle had 10.5 sacks and 21 TFL as a junior. At 6-4, 254, Kindle could run a low 4.5 40, making him the top rush linebacker available in the 2010 NFL Draft."

#8 - Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa - my top rated OT right now for 2010 if he comes out after his Junior year.

#12 - Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida - would possibly have been my first choice at #23 if he had come out this year.

#13 - Ndamukong Suh, DE/DT, Nebraska - probably the best overall 3-4 DE prospect in 2010.

#16 - Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama - Spikes vs. McClain arguments will be fun if he declares next year.

#19 - Mark Herzlich, LB, Boston College - probably a 4-3 SAM, but he has the intensity that he might be an interesting 3-4 SILB.

#21 - Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama - some people worship him as a 3-4 DT.

#29 - Arthur Jones, DE/DT, Syracuse. A very solid 3-4 DE prospect.

They have the Pats picking #32 and taking RB CJ Spiller from Clemson.

It's fun just to take a break from fixating on the same prospects for 2009.