Draft Trade Idea

[mayoclinic]

Consider the following draft scenario:

14. NO - Beanie Wells or Knowshon Moreno, RB
23. NE - Connor Barwin, OLB
34. NE - Louis Delmas, S

Now suppose NE is sitting at pick #47 with the following players on the board:

- Jarron Gilbert, DE
- Eric Wood, OG/C
- William Moore, S

Which of the following options would you prefer:

1. Option A: NE takes one of Gilbert/Wood at 47 and either hopes the other lasts to 58, or packages #89 and 58 to move up and get the other, ending up with Barwin/Delmas/Gilbert/Wood.

2. Option B: NE trades #47 and a conditional 2010 pick to NO for their 2010 1st round pick. NO has no 2nd or 3rd, desperately needs a S, and is said to covet Moore. The conditional pick could be dependent on NO's 2010 draft status (31-32 = 7th rounder, 25-30=6th, 20-25=5th, 15-20=4th, <15=3rd). NE then either hopes one of Gilbert/Wood lasts to 58 or packages #89 and 58 to move up and get one, ending up with Barwin/Delmas and either Gilbert or Wood, plus an extra 2010 1st round pick.

Which option would you prefer? It's difficult, as Barwin/Delmas/Gilbert/Wood would be an amazing first day, but I think I'd go for option B. With a strong 2010 draft and two 1sts plus a 2nd we would be in great shape. We might be able to move up and get a franchise OT like Brian Bulaga or a top 3-4 DE like Ndamukong Suh, or package our original #1 and #2 and move up for an SILB like Brandon Spikes or Rolando McClain. Or, use one 1st on OT, one on DE (like Arthur Jones or Lawrence Marsh), and our 2nd on a WR like Marshawn Gilyard or Brandon LaFell.

 

[farn]

Any scenario that involves craploads of defensive players joining the team.

In your scenario : I like getting a #1 in '10 (even though I think it's an unrealistic scenario). Firstly, there are just so many spots available on the Pats (veteran team with talent). Secondly, a #47 for a 1st rounder is a no-brainer (but ricidulous for NO). Thirdly, we know BB will most likely move one the #2s... and he loves gathering future picks.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

If Gilbert's there you take him. Wood is nice, but there are other C/G types worth drafting well into the 4th round, and even a couple good ones who may last to UDFA. Moore may be someone NO likes, but they can still get a good Safety in later rounds without giving up a 2010 1st.

 

[carolinatony]

"Any scenario that involves craploads of defensive players joining the team"


I agree with you on this.

 

[jays52]

I move out for a #1 considering the 5-tech depth in the next draft. Call me crazy, but we may move out of 23 for a future #1 and a 2009 #3, parlay that 3 and a second to move back into the end of the round for Barwin and take Delmas at 34.

 

[mayoclinic]

Any scenario that involves craploads of defensive players joining the team.

In your scenario : I like getting a #1 in '10 (even though I think it's an unrealistic scenario). Firstly, there are just so many spots available on the Pats (veteran team with talent). Secondly, a #47 for a 1st rounder is a no-brainer (but ricidulous for NO). Thirdly, we know BB will most likely move one the #2s... and he loves gathering future picks.

Why do you think it's unrealistic? With no 2nd or 3rd round pick and a player they covet (and who is a low 1st/high 2nd rounder on some draft boards) still available, why not move up? Generally, a one round premium is considered acceptable to move up a year. Indy traded their 2008 1st (which turned out to be #29) for #42 in 2007 in order to move up and fill a position of need, getting OT Tony Ugoh. NO expects to compete for a playoff berth and potentially the SB in 2009, so I'm sure they're expecting to pick in the 20's. I structured the deal so that NO also got a conditional pick in 2010, possibly as high as a 3rd rounder. If they ended up making the playoffs or SB then I don't think they would regret the trade. If they didn't do so well then trading a 2010 1st for a mid-2009 2nd and a 2010 3rd doesn't seem unreasonable. Again, this is in the setting where NO really wants to get Moore and they don't have many options.

 

[Mike the Brit]

I move out for a #1 considering the 5-tech depth in the next draft. Call me crazy, but we may move out of 23 for a future #1 and a 2009 #3, parlay that 3 and a second to move back into the end of the round for Barwin and take Delmas at 34.

Now THAT's what I call greedy!

 

[mayoclinic]

Now THAT's what I call greedy!

No, that's what I call brilliant. As far as I can tell, we would take 23, 34, 47 and 58 and end up with Barwin, Delmas, a 2010 1st and #58, which is pretty much what I suggested with the NO trade. Same result, different path. And again, we could still potentially package #89 and #58 to move up to get someone like Gilbert, Wood, or a SILB candidate (Ayers, English or Sintim) if they were still available.

 

[supafly]

Whatever the outcome, and however they do it--I certainly expect moving at least 2 picks to next yr. My reasoning is that there's just not that much room this yr for too many guys. I expect a surprise cut or 2 to free up some youth, but I agree on moving towards 2010.

Your scenario sounds just as good as any other, why not?

 

[Feep50]

Too complicated for me........... I'll just wait till draft weekend and see what happens!

 

[Mike the Brit]

I meant it as a compliment. (For extra credit, spot the film -- "Mother always said you were greedy." "She meant it as a compliment.")

 

[patman52]

Any scenario that involves craploads of defensive players joining the team.

In your scenario : I like getting a #1 in '10 (even though I think it's an unrealistic scenario). Firstly, there are just so many spots available on the Pats (veteran team with talent). Secondly, a #47 for a 1st rounder is a no-brainer (but ricidulous for NO). Thirdly, we know BB will most likely move one the #2s... and he loves gathering future picks.

The saints should be drafting after 25 next year. So your trading 20 spots to move up a year. It could happen.

 

[mayoclinic]

The saints should be drafting after 25 next year. So your trading 20 spots to move up a year. It could happen.

We moved up 18 spots in our trade with San Diego (69 to 47) and 21 spots in our trade with San Francisco (28 to 7). San Francisco moved up 13 spots with Indy (42 to 29). There's obviously some uncertainty built in, which is why I included a conditional pick. Again, I could see the Saints paying a bit of premium to get back into the 2nd round and get a player they value at a position of need.

 

[MetalBleachers]

I meant it as a compliment. (For extra credit, spot the film -- "Mother always said you were greedy." "She meant it as a compliment.")

Found it! But I won't say because I cheated online.

 

[MetalBleachers]

We moved up 18 spots in our trade with San Diego (69 to 47) and 21 spots in our trade with San Francisco (28 to 7). San Francisco moved up 13 spots with Indy (42 to 29). There's obviously some uncertainty built in, which is why I included a conditional pick. Again, I could see the Saints paying a bit of premium to get back into the 2nd round and get a player they value at a position of need.

Makes sense. All's i want is 3-4 picks on defense who can contribute at some level right away, plus two offensive player (OL and specialist). With 3 mandatory picks, it's imperative to trade 3-4 of the remaining 8 into the future. isn't it?

 

[Mike the Brit]

Found it! But I won't say because I cheated online.

Great film, eh?

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

Consider the following draft scenario:

14. NO - Beanie Wells or Knowshon Moreno, RB
23. NE - Connor Barwin, OLB
34. NE - Louis Delmas, S

Now suppose NE is sitting at pick #47 with the following players on the board:

- Jarron Gilbert, DE
- Eric Wood, OG/C
- William Moore, S

Which of the following options would you prefer:

1. Option A: NE takes one of Gilbert/Wood at 47 and either hopes the other lasts to 58, or packages #89 and 58 to move up and get the other, ending up with Barwin/Delmas/Gilbert/Wood.

2. Option B: NE trades #47 and a conditional 2010 pick to NO for their 2010 1st round pick. NO has no 2nd or 3rd, desperately needs a S, and is said to covet Moore. The conditional pick could be dependent on NO's 2010 draft status (31-32 = 7th rounder, 25-30=6th, 20-25=5th, 15-20=4th, <15=3rd). NE then either hopes one of Gilbert/Wood lasts to 58 or packages #89 and 58 to move up and get one, ending up with Barwin/Delmas and either Gilbert or Wood, plus an extra 2010 1st round pick.

Which option would you prefer? It's difficult, as Barwin/Delmas/Gilbert/Wood would be an amazing first day, but I think I'd go for option B. With a strong 2010 draft and two 1sts plus a 2nd we would be in great shape. We might be able to move up and get a franchise OT like Brian Bulaga or a top 3-4 DE like Ndamukong Suh, or package our original #1 and #2 and move up for an SILB like Brandon Spikes or Rolando McClain. Or, use one 1st on OT, one on DE (like Arthur Jones or Lawrence Marsh), and our 2nd on a WR like Marshawn Gilyard or Brandon LaFell.

I have been doing alot of homework on the Saints and their draft. They have nothing for picks other then #14. In our mock draft I traded that pick to the Giants for #29 and #45 to get a second day one pick. After that they have two in the fourth round then do not pick until the seventh. To add to all of this they do not even have a comp pick handed a week ago.

I love the idea of the first rounder we could get as they were not that great this year and if Drew B. gets injured we would all be counting the spots we move up in the first round when Brunell gets under center.

 

[mayoclinic]

I have been doing alot of homework on the Saints and their draft. They have nothing for picks other then #14. In our mock draft I traded that pick to the Giants for #29 and #45 to get a second day one pick. After that they have two in the fourth round then do not pick until the seventh. To add to all of this they do not even have a comp pick handed a week ago.

I love the idea of the first rounder we could get as they were not that great this year and if Drew B. gets injured we would all be counting the spots we move up in the first round when Brunell gets under center.

I used some of your thoughts in designing this scenario. I think the Saints would love to trade down from #14 and get a 2nd round pick, but I'm not sure that there will be suitors. In addition, they've been vocal about wanting to improve their running game, and with Wells gaining ground since his pro day if he were available at #14 they might have a hard time passing him up. In that case, they might be willing to pay a premium to move back into the 2nd round if a player they wanted (Moore, who they are rumored to like a lot) is still available.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

I used some of your thoughts in designing this scenario. I think the Saints would love to trade down from #14 and get a 2nd round pick, but I'm not sure that there will be suitors. In addition, they've been vocal about wanting to improve their running game, and with Wells gaining ground since his pro day if he were available at #14 they might have a hard time passing him up. In that case, they might be willing to pay a premium to move back into the 2nd round if a player they wanted (Moore, who they are rumored to like a lot) is still available.

I should not discuss this on this public forum with the PatsFans board draft still going on but I think they are so desperate for picks they will trade down for the quality that is available in this draft.

I really think they drafted Bush two years ago and want to give him more touches not just on third down. Thomas is good but they can get a hard nose runner late in the second or worse case scenario the fourth round.

They have a need at DB even though Sharper and Grier were signed. For sure Pierson Prioleau is not the long term answer so I think they will target a Safety as they drafted Tracy Porter high last year at Corner. I drafted the combo of Sean Smith but could see them look hard at Moore.