Don Banks on an uncapped 2010

[mayoclinic]

Nice article from Don Banks at CNNSI:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/03/23/nfl.meetings/index.html

Banks suggests that an uncapped 2010 is viewed by many teams as a virtual certainty, with a lockout in 2011 as a real possibility, and mentions that many teams have been making moves this year assuming an uncapped 2010.

Most interestingly, he quotes Robert Kraft: "It's not scary at all to us,'' Patriots owner Robert Kraft said of the possibility of playing without a salary cap next year. "There are a lot of pluses to it. It's definitely not a doomsday scenario, and it might have to happen to get things right. I hope it's the vehicle to get us a deal. I hope it's the ultimate hammer.''

 

[maverick4]

An uncapped year helps the Pats the most. We have lots of money and there are lots of vets who want a ring, who we could fit if there wasn't a salary cap.

 

[Rob0729]

An uncapped year helps the Pats the most. We have lots of money and there are lots of vets who want a ring, who we could fit if there wasn't a salary cap.

Well, it actually helps Daniel Snyder the most because he has the most money of any owner and the largest revenue stream, but Kraft isn't that far behind. Snyder is looking forward to overpay for every free agent available next year.

One popular misconception is that Kraft is afraid to spend his money. If you look at the deals he made prior to Belichick, Kraft was fast and loose with his money. In fact, he made Belichick overpay for Bledsoe and Milloy. It took like seven years for a CB to get a bigger deal than Ty Law got in the late 90s. Even when salaries grew exponentially, no CB got the deal Law did until I think Champ Bailey did his current deal.

 

[eom]

well, hopefully pats will be in the top 4, so their spending will be restricted somewhat.

I'm not really sure what kind of hog wild spending you'll see considering a possible work stoppage the next year, or a tighter cap in a new cba.
anyway, the pats would probably prioritize re-signing their own guys over bringing in big names off the street ---- I wonder who would be the bigger names out there.

 

[PromisedLand]

All those guys who were gonna be free agents next year? How many of em will be now?

Seymour, Wilfork Bruschi (if he doesn't retire) and Neal will be because they will have 6 years in.

Hobbs, Mankins Kascur and Watson will not because they will only have 5 years.

Gostkowski, LeKevin Smith and David Thomas will not because they will only have 4 years.

I am not sure I understand the status of guys like Alexander who were already ERFA, or guys like Hochstein who are not still under their rookie contracts (although in Hoch's case I am sure he will have >= six seasons).

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Well, it actually helps Daniel Snyder the most because he has the most money of any owner and the largest revenue stream, but Kraft isn't that far behind. Snyder is looking forward to overpay for every free agent available next year.

One popular misconception is that Kraft is afraid to spend his money. If you look at the deals he made prior to Belichick, Kraft was fast and loose with his money. In fact, he made Belichick overpay for Bledsoe and Milloy. It took like seven years for a CB to get a bigger deal than Ty Law got in the late 90s. Even when salaries grew exponentially, no CB got the deal Law did until I think Champ Bailey did his current deal.

That was before Belioli taught him about the system and teambuilding. Made tremendous sense to Kraft the businessman as well as Mrs. Kraft whose father was quite the philanthropist. They aren't inclined to throw money at flashy talent. They'd rather give it away to people and programs that deserve it. They aren't going to mortgage the future to pay for a shot. They have 3 Lombardi's in the trophy case already so they don't even have to toy with bad ideas. They also have a couple of hundred million in stadium debt still to be paid off. And substantial real estate in development. Tied to a league heading for a work stoppage in 2011.

PS Neither Bledsoe, Law or Milloy saw the phony backloaded end of those deals here...

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Well, it actually helps Daniel Snyder the most because he has the most money of any owner and the largest revenue stream, but Kraft isn't that far behind. Snyder is looking forward to overpay for every free agent available next year.

Unfortunately for him, it requires 6 years not 5 to be an UFA in an uncapped year...

 

[Rob0729]

well, hopefully pats will be in the top 4, so their spending will be restricted somewhat.

I'm not really sure what kind of hog wild spending you'll see considering a possible work stoppage the next year, or a tighter cap in a new cba.
anyway, the pats would probably prioritize re-signing their own guys over bringing in big names off the street ---- I wonder who would be the bigger names out there.

Daniel Snyder has the money to give a player a seven year/$100 million contract and have $90 million of it be paid out in salary in 2009 if he chooses. That means even if there is a tighter salary cap in a new CBA, the player he has under contract will have a low cap number the final six years.

Even for teams with more realistic budgets, you seem to forget teams pay out a large chunk of money of a player's contract in the first year but most of it is in a signing bonus that is amortized over the life of the contract. In an uncapped year, there will be no signing bonuses because there is no cap to worry about. Everything that would have been a signing bonus in any other year will be either straight salary or a roster bonus to avoid problems with a new CBA that has a more restricted cap. If there is no cap next year and a new cap implemented in 2011, every deal made in 2010 (unless you have a stupid GM) will be far more cap friendly than the same deal in any other year.

As for a work stoppage, if the league loses a year, the contracts just get pushed back a year. So if there is no football in 2011 and it picks up again in 2012, all the contracts for 2011 will be in 2012. Besides, with no dead bonus money for any contracts signed in 2010, it will be easy for teams to cut loose players signed in 2009 in the 2012 season if there is no football in 2011 and they become too old for their contract.

Daniel Snyder desperately wants a Super Bowl championship for his team. I don't think he would be totally opposed to spending an extra $50-100 million to get it done especially when he sees that overpaying players in an uncapped year will have no negative effect if the cap is reinstated. The only thing stopping Snyder from spending the money now is the cap.

As for Kraft, he may look at it as an opportunity to get some top quality free agents in 2009 which may actually improve the Pats' cap situation if they implement a cap in 2010.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

All those guys who were gonna be free agents next year? How many of em will be now?

Seymour, Wilfork Bruschi (if he doesn't retire) and Neal will be because they will have 6 years in.

Hobbs, Mankins Kascur and Watson will not because they will only have 5 years.

Gostkowski, LeKevin Smith and David Thomas will not because they will only have 4 years.

I am not sure I understand the status of guys like Alexander who were already ERFA, or guys like Hochstein who are not still under their rookie contracts (although in Hoch's case I am sure he will have >= six seasons).

It's really quite simple: Assuming you reach free agency via contract expiration, if you're a free agent with fewer than three accrued seasons, you're an ERFA. If you have three or more accrued seasons, but not enough to be a UFA, you're an RFA.

 

[JoeSixPat]

That's funny. All this time I thought the NFL owners had unanimously voted to let the current CBA expire because they felt they were paying out TOO MUCH money.

But apparently what they really want is to be able to spend MORE on players!

 

[Rob0729]

That was before Belioli taught him about the system and teambuilding. Made tremendous sense to Kraft the businessman as well as Mrs. Kraft whose father was quite the philanthropist. They aren't inclined to throw money at flashy talent. They'd rather give it away to people and programs that deserve it. They aren't going to mortgage the future to pay for a shot. They have 3 Lombardi's in the trophy case already so they don't even have to toy with bad ideas. They also have a couple of hundred million in stadium debt still to be paid off. And substantial real estate in development. Tied to a league heading for a work stoppage in 2011.

PS Neither Bledsoe, Law or Milloy saw the phony backloaded end of those deals here...

First, Law got something like a $13 million signing bonus and received $37.5 million of his $50 million contract. He did receive something like $12 million in base pay in 2004 and if he wasn't coming off a broken foot in 2005, he might have gotten the final $12.5 million of the contract. Law say a lot of what people thought was phoney bonus money.

Second, Bledsoe might have seen every penny of his contract if it wasn't for Brady. Bledsoe got his deal under Belichick and Pioli (in fact, so did Milloy, well not Pioli for that one).

Third, Belichick and Pioli revised their way of doing things over the life of their run here. They threw money at guys like Adalius Thomas and Rosevelt Colvin. Those players might have been able to get more money elsewhere, but Belichick and Pioli did pay top dollar to acquire them. Pioli has been quoted in the past that there were many top dollar free agents that they would have loved to add to the team, but the cap wouldn't allow it. Don't be shocked that without a cap and if Kraft writes him a blank check that Belichick decides to pay for one of more top dollar free agents.

It seems the only thing that would stop Belichick from acquiring Peppers is the cap ramifications, not that he is flashy talent and he doesn't throw money at flashy talent (Colvin and AD disprove that theory anyway). Belichick don't mind to acquire flashy talent as long as they fit his system and it doesn't destroy his cap.

 

[eom]

That's funny. All this time I thought the NFL owners had unanimously voted to let the current CBA expire because they felt they were paying out TOO MUCH money.

But apparently what they really want is to be able to spend MORE on players!

I don't know about that --- robo's primarily talking about one guy.

you might have some tampa bays out there that take advantage of 2010 by spending less.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't know about that --- robo's primarily talking about one guy.

you might have some tampa bays out there that take advantage of 2010 by spending less.

Yeah, I think the Snyders, Jones, and Krafts of the NFL might spend quite a bit more or not, but I also think there will be several teams that take advantage of no salary floor. Mike Brown of the Bengals seems to be perfectly happy to win the title of most frugal owner even at the expense of a chance to win the Super Bowl.

There will be some owners who spend like crazy and others who won't spend at all.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I don't know about that --- robo's primarily talking about one guy.

you might have some tampa bays out there that take advantage of 2010 by spending less.

I recognize that - but there are some who believe this is going to be the wild west with Kraft and other richer teams spending like there's no tomorrow to buy a title

I know there are plenty of teams that will continue to spend, and spend unwisely. They will certainly be happy that there's no longer a cap consequence to those bad decisions.

That's where I think the capless year - and any future capless years - will have its biggest impact. And that's not something I like because the Patriots tend NOT to spend foolishly - and I LIKE the fact that teams have an adverse consequence... which in turn benefits the Patriots.

While the good news is that the Patriots don't need to jump through cap hoops to sign players or retain their own (with two franchise tags) overall I think the bad outweighs the good for the Patriots overall.

In general I'd prefer to keep the system that gave us three Super Bowl championships rather than move to a system that's given us none.

 

[Rob0729]

I recognize that - but there are some who believe this is going to be the wild west with Kraft and other richer teams spending like there's no tomorrow to buy a title

I know there are plenty of teams that will continue to spend, and spend unwisely. They will certainly be happy that there's no longer a cap consequence to those bad decisions.

That's where I think the capless year - and any future capless years - will have its biggest impact. And that's not something I like because the Patriots tend NOT to spend foolishly - and I LIKE the fact that teams have an adverse consequence... which in turn benefits the Patriots.

While the good news is that the Patriots don't need to jump through cap hoops to sign players or retain their own (with two franchise tags) overall I think the bad outweighs the good for the Patriots overall.

In general I'd prefer to keep the system that gave us three Super Bowl championships rather than move to a system that's given us none.

I agree that the Pats don't spend foolishly, but they drop out of the market for players they want because of the cap ramifications of signing those players. Both Belichick and Pioli have admitted that to some point. They probably would have kept Samuel if there was no cap consideration last year. They probably would have resigned Branch too. Belichick probably would have no problem pulling the trigger to trade for Peppers if there was no cap.

There is a difference between just throwing big money at every name out there whether they are past their prime, don't fit your system, or are just guys looking for a buck, and once paid, have no desire to work hard and being unrestricted by a salary cap and now have no restraints to go after the top free agents that do fit your system, will work hard, and still can make an impact. The Pats won't just pay big bucks to acquire every big name out there that they can. But if there is a marquee free agent that they are extremely high on that in a cap year would just be too expensive to fit under the cap without sacrificing elsewhere, don't be shocked if the Pats go hard after that player and overpay for him in an uncapped year.

I think in an uncapped year assuming they aren't too hamstrung by the top 8 rule, the Pats will be a major player in free agency and could uncharacteristically over pay for a player or two or three. It won't mean they will change their philosophy and just sign all the big name free agents they can. But they will go after marquee guys they are high on.

 

[spacecrime]

Who is the maroon who gave this excellent thread one star?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Question for all the people talking about NE spending big money in an uncapped 2010:
-- Do you expect NE to make the playoffs?
---- If yes, how does NE acquire these big money Free Agents with the restrictions affecting playoff team's opportunity to sign Free Agents?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Who is the maroon who gave this excellent thread one star?

The same fun loving soul rating everything one star.

 

[eom]

Question for all the people talking about NE spending big money in an uncapped 2010:
-- Do you expect NE to make the playoffs?
---- If yes, how does NE acquire these big money Free Agents with the restrictions affecting playoff team's opportunity to sign Free Agents?

if you mean the rule of 8, they have about 30 contracts expiring this season, so I'd imagine they'd have SOME attrition of free agents to replace.

if you mean the further restrictions of being in the final 4, or whatever, I have no idea what those are.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

First, Law got something like a $13 million signing bonus and received $37.5 million of his $50 million contract. He did receive something like $12 million in base pay in 2004 and if he wasn't coming off a broken foot in 2005, he might have gotten the final $12.5 million of the contract. Law say a lot of what people thought was phoney bonus money.

Second, Bledsoe might have seen every penny of his contract if it wasn't for Brady. Bledsoe got his deal under Belichick and Pioli (in fact, so did Milloy, well not Pioli for that one).

Third, Belichick and Pioli revised their way of doing things over the life of their run here. They threw money at guys like Adalius Thomas and Rosevelt Colvin. Those players might have been able to get more money elsewhere, but Belichick and Pioli did pay top dollar to acquire them. Pioli has been quoted in the past that there were many top dollar free agents that they would have loved to add to the team, but the cap wouldn't allow it. Don't be shocked that without a cap and if Kraft writes him a blank check that Belichick decides to pay for one of more top dollar free agents.

It seems the only thing that would stop Belichick from acquiring Peppers is the cap ramifications, not that he is flashy talent and he doesn't throw money at flashy talent (Colvin and AD disprove that theory anyway). Belichick don't mind to acquire flashy talent as long as they fit his system and it doesn't destroy his cap.

Bledsoe's dead cap after year 1 of his $100M deal was $6.6m. He cost them $10M. Law had $12M left on his deal when refused restructure. The Pats offered to keep him here on a 4 year deal that would have guaranteed him $12M of that in the first two years of a 4 year $24M extension. At a time when Champ Bailey was already making $9M per... He was worth $6M. Not $9m. So he had to go. Milloy had to go because he refused to restructure following a year in which he didn't earn his salary...

Both Colvin and AD took less than expected and less than the going rate for top tier FA OLB at the time they were signed. Belichick won't overpay, even if a faction of the market will.

In 2005 on the night he won his third ring, Bob Kraft told the media that he hoped to sign Brady to an extension but if he wanted Manning money it would be tough to get any extension done...

One of the reasons Kraft is speaking out as one of the management voices committed to doing whatever it takes to get the right deal for the league this time around is because he believes players are already receiving too large a piece of the pie at 60%. He's not going to throw obscene money at FA in an uncapped league because he knows that's not good for the league product long term. And he's 1/32nd of a league where more than half the inflated value of most franchises is tied to league value.