I should be working this afternoon, but instead I spent the last few hours poring over the Pats' depth chart and the draft guides, trying to come up with a seven-round draft strategy. Not that anyone needs to listen to me, but I spent some time on this and this is what I came up with -- 10 picks (you'll see why it's not 11) based on a couple of basic principles.
In looking over the Pats roster, there are a few obvious pre-draft factors that the coaches must be taking into account:
1) The Pats have three experienced, valuable tight ends under contract for next year, and none of those three guys is very likely to lose his spot. They've never carried four TEs on the active roster. So you'd have to assume there won't be a TE drafted high.
2) Although not necessarily a position of strength, the Pats have five corners who are very likely to make the team -- Hobbs, Springs, Bodden, Wilhite and Wheatley. Given that it's tough to imagine a corner being drafted high unless it's a guy who can also play safety, a la Sean Smith.
3) The Pats have four running backs who are almost guaranteed to make the roster: Maroney, Morris, Taylor and Faulk. They lost Evans this year, but my guess is that they don't bother picking up a replacement fullback. Although they could use a young developmental-type back -- especially with some of those guys leaving the team next year -- I just don't see them carrying five tailbacks on the roster, especially since it's not a need this year. I'd bet they ditch the fullback and try to save a roster spot by carrying only four backs, and they already have four backs. If they need competition, it'll either be a late-round pick or an UDFA.
Anyway, without further ado here's one possible draft as I see it:
1 The Pats trade up to select REY MAUALUGA. For the purposes of this exercise I'm going to assume that 23+59 is required to get it done, although it might very well only take 34+47. It doesn't really matter all that much. The thought process here is that the Pats need an impact guy at the Mike position, and there's only one guy in the draft who fits that criteria. Add to that the fact that the team is very solid as is and doesn't really need to use all of these picks, and you have a very good argument that the team should trade up to get an impact player at a position of need. You could make the argument for someone like Orakpo or Everette Brown, but there are pass-rushers later in the draft while there aren't many true 3-4 inside linebackers. So you go for the guy to pair up with Mayo inside.
2a CLINT SINTIM. Fill in your best available 3-4 OLB here. Filling Vrabel's spot might be the biggest need on the team, so they have to go OLB pretty early. It could be Barwin or Larry English or Aaron Maybin, but if you're going to be conservative in your guess you'd go with Sintim.
2b WILLIAM MOORE They could also go with someone like Rashad Johnson here or Chip Vaughn, but this is another pretty obvious pick. The Pats have a serious need for a big in-the-box safety, they have multiple second round picks, and this draft has a lot of good second-round safeties. Another possibility would be grabbing Ron Brace to back up Wilfork or provide insurance in case he leaves; I'm split on this decision. The only thing that makes me hesitate here is Belichick's history of drafting guys in the second round you've never heard of, and we've all heard of William Moore. So who knows.
3a PAT WHITE The Pats experimented with some Wildcat-style gadget plays last year using Kevin Faulk, but this guy would be even better there. If you can convince White to play receiver -- which the Pats will have the time to do, now that they've signed Galloway and traded for Greg Lewis -- you can get yourself another pass-catcher and keep him on the roster as a quarterback. Since the Pats have room for a third QB anyway, they can afford to take White, who is probably undervalued because of his height. But he could end up being a Randle-El type of player.
3b JASON WATKINS Clearly the team needs some young players on the offensive line; Watkins is a young player who played for Belichick's buddy Urban Meyer, held up well at left tackle, and could also play guard. I also like Xavier Fulton from Illinois -- he looked great the combine and would be perfect running downfield on all those screens the Pats run -- but the important thing is to get a serviceable offensive lineman before they get out of the third round.
4 MIKE THOMAS Again, it doesn't need to be Thomas necessarily, but the Pats have a need at wideout and the guys with NFL speed are going to start disappearing in this round. I also think that with Moss and Galloway getting so many snaps on the outside, and the Pats' history with short receivers, they might be more willing to take a little guy like Thomas than some other teams. I also like Quan Cosby -- he reminds me a little of Troy Brown -- and Deon Butler, although Butler is probably going to go higher now because of his combine performance.
5 COURTNEY GREENE Again, the Pats have some room on the roster for another safety. Since both Sanders and Meriweather are smallish cover-type safeties, this is maybe a place to take a chance on another big guy, like Greene or Lendy Holmes or maybe even CJ Spillman. Seems to me every year some big, not-too-fast 5th or 6th-round safety turns into a very good player, ie Rodney Harrison, Gibril Wilson or Dawan Landry.
6a ANDREW HARTLINE This guy seems like a Kaczur-type player, a grinder from the MAC. Somebody like Andy Kemp might work here. I figure they need two offensive linemen and the Pats have a history of drafting at least one O-lineman late (Koppen, O'Callaghan, Oldenburg, Connolly, etc).
6b JASPER BRINKLEY Maybe eventually the Pats will draft a big 3-4 inside linebacker late and it will actually pan out. I'd guess Josh Mauga, but their last experiment with a Nevada linebacker didn't work out too well. Brinkley again is a big tackle-to-tackle thumper-type who'd fit well with Mayo and Guyton, who are more side-to-side speed linebackers.
7 WOPAMO OSASAI I'm not going to lie. I've never seen this guy play. But the one thing the Pats need that they'd have a realistic shot of getting this late in the draft is a gunner. Osasai is apparently a player with exactly one skill: he's super-fast, a track star who played in the Pan Am Games as a 100-meter sprinter, and he's apparently a hell of a gunner. In the same way BB used a pick on Slater last year, Osasai could be that pure special teamer he was looking for.
That's one possible draft. It has some problems though, given the following things we know about Bill Belichick:
1) He likes to draft the sons of NFL veterans -- Klecko, Slater, and Graham, for instance. So I feel uncomfortable leaving Clay Matthews and Brian Robiskie off the list.
2) He likes guys from Fresno State, LSU/Alabama, and Iowa, for obvious reasons, and nobody on this list comes from there. Maybe this pushes him in the direction of Rashad Johnson, Curtis Taylor, or Glen Coffee.
3) He likes disappointingly short cornerbacks, and there's nobody here who fits that description. So I'm nervous leaving Alphonso Smith and/or Captain Munnerlyn, Lydell Sargent, or Ryan Mouton off. I'm doubly nervous about leaving Ellis Lankster off, given that he is an undersized corner named Ellis.
4) He likes the lesser-known teammates of more heralded draft binkies. So that makes me think DeAngelo Smith (instead of Connor Barwin), Ron Brace (instead of Raji), and either Kaluka Maiava or Keith Ellison (instead of any of the more famous USC backers).
5) He likes drafting tight ends no matter what the situation, there are no tight ends on this list, and this happens to be a pretty decent year for tight ends. You could easily see him picking someone like Jared Cook over Pat White. But I'm sticking with White.
Also, there are no running backs on the list. Among otehr things this is because I don't know much about this year's running backs. Anyone out there think there's someone in the late rounds I should have picked?
Anyway, all suggestions appreciated...
In looking over the Pats roster, there are a few obvious pre-draft factors that the coaches must be taking into account:
1) The Pats have three experienced, valuable tight ends under contract for next year, and none of those three guys is very likely to lose his spot. They've never carried four TEs on the active roster. So you'd have to assume there won't be a TE drafted high.
2) Although not necessarily a position of strength, the Pats have five corners who are very likely to make the team -- Hobbs, Springs, Bodden, Wilhite and Wheatley. Given that it's tough to imagine a corner being drafted high unless it's a guy who can also play safety, a la Sean Smith.
3) The Pats have four running backs who are almost guaranteed to make the roster: Maroney, Morris, Taylor and Faulk. They lost Evans this year, but my guess is that they don't bother picking up a replacement fullback. Although they could use a young developmental-type back -- especially with some of those guys leaving the team next year -- I just don't see them carrying five tailbacks on the roster, especially since it's not a need this year. I'd bet they ditch the fullback and try to save a roster spot by carrying only four backs, and they already have four backs. If they need competition, it'll either be a late-round pick or an UDFA.
Anyway, without further ado here's one possible draft as I see it:
1 The Pats trade up to select REY MAUALUGA. For the purposes of this exercise I'm going to assume that 23+59 is required to get it done, although it might very well only take 34+47. It doesn't really matter all that much. The thought process here is that the Pats need an impact guy at the Mike position, and there's only one guy in the draft who fits that criteria. Add to that the fact that the team is very solid as is and doesn't really need to use all of these picks, and you have a very good argument that the team should trade up to get an impact player at a position of need. You could make the argument for someone like Orakpo or Everette Brown, but there are pass-rushers later in the draft while there aren't many true 3-4 inside linebackers. So you go for the guy to pair up with Mayo inside.
2a CLINT SINTIM. Fill in your best available 3-4 OLB here. Filling Vrabel's spot might be the biggest need on the team, so they have to go OLB pretty early. It could be Barwin or Larry English or Aaron Maybin, but if you're going to be conservative in your guess you'd go with Sintim.
2b WILLIAM MOORE They could also go with someone like Rashad Johnson here or Chip Vaughn, but this is another pretty obvious pick. The Pats have a serious need for a big in-the-box safety, they have multiple second round picks, and this draft has a lot of good second-round safeties. Another possibility would be grabbing Ron Brace to back up Wilfork or provide insurance in case he leaves; I'm split on this decision. The only thing that makes me hesitate here is Belichick's history of drafting guys in the second round you've never heard of, and we've all heard of William Moore. So who knows.
3a PAT WHITE The Pats experimented with some Wildcat-style gadget plays last year using Kevin Faulk, but this guy would be even better there. If you can convince White to play receiver -- which the Pats will have the time to do, now that they've signed Galloway and traded for Greg Lewis -- you can get yourself another pass-catcher and keep him on the roster as a quarterback. Since the Pats have room for a third QB anyway, they can afford to take White, who is probably undervalued because of his height. But he could end up being a Randle-El type of player.
3b JASON WATKINS Clearly the team needs some young players on the offensive line; Watkins is a young player who played for Belichick's buddy Urban Meyer, held up well at left tackle, and could also play guard. I also like Xavier Fulton from Illinois -- he looked great the combine and would be perfect running downfield on all those screens the Pats run -- but the important thing is to get a serviceable offensive lineman before they get out of the third round.
4 MIKE THOMAS Again, it doesn't need to be Thomas necessarily, but the Pats have a need at wideout and the guys with NFL speed are going to start disappearing in this round. I also think that with Moss and Galloway getting so many snaps on the outside, and the Pats' history with short receivers, they might be more willing to take a little guy like Thomas than some other teams. I also like Quan Cosby -- he reminds me a little of Troy Brown -- and Deon Butler, although Butler is probably going to go higher now because of his combine performance.
5 COURTNEY GREENE Again, the Pats have some room on the roster for another safety. Since both Sanders and Meriweather are smallish cover-type safeties, this is maybe a place to take a chance on another big guy, like Greene or Lendy Holmes or maybe even CJ Spillman. Seems to me every year some big, not-too-fast 5th or 6th-round safety turns into a very good player, ie Rodney Harrison, Gibril Wilson or Dawan Landry.
6a ANDREW HARTLINE This guy seems like a Kaczur-type player, a grinder from the MAC. Somebody like Andy Kemp might work here. I figure they need two offensive linemen and the Pats have a history of drafting at least one O-lineman late (Koppen, O'Callaghan, Oldenburg, Connolly, etc).
6b JASPER BRINKLEY Maybe eventually the Pats will draft a big 3-4 inside linebacker late and it will actually pan out. I'd guess Josh Mauga, but their last experiment with a Nevada linebacker didn't work out too well. Brinkley again is a big tackle-to-tackle thumper-type who'd fit well with Mayo and Guyton, who are more side-to-side speed linebackers.
7 WOPAMO OSASAI I'm not going to lie. I've never seen this guy play. But the one thing the Pats need that they'd have a realistic shot of getting this late in the draft is a gunner. Osasai is apparently a player with exactly one skill: he's super-fast, a track star who played in the Pan Am Games as a 100-meter sprinter, and he's apparently a hell of a gunner. In the same way BB used a pick on Slater last year, Osasai could be that pure special teamer he was looking for.
That's one possible draft. It has some problems though, given the following things we know about Bill Belichick:
1) He likes to draft the sons of NFL veterans -- Klecko, Slater, and Graham, for instance. So I feel uncomfortable leaving Clay Matthews and Brian Robiskie off the list.
2) He likes guys from Fresno State, LSU/Alabama, and Iowa, for obvious reasons, and nobody on this list comes from there. Maybe this pushes him in the direction of Rashad Johnson, Curtis Taylor, or Glen Coffee.
3) He likes disappointingly short cornerbacks, and there's nobody here who fits that description. So I'm nervous leaving Alphonso Smith and/or Captain Munnerlyn, Lydell Sargent, or Ryan Mouton off. I'm doubly nervous about leaving Ellis Lankster off, given that he is an undersized corner named Ellis.
4) He likes the lesser-known teammates of more heralded draft binkies. So that makes me think DeAngelo Smith (instead of Connor Barwin), Ron Brace (instead of Raji), and either Kaluka Maiava or Keith Ellison (instead of any of the more famous USC backers).
5) He likes drafting tight ends no matter what the situation, there are no tight ends on this list, and this happens to be a pretty decent year for tight ends. You could easily see him picking someone like Jared Cook over Pat White. But I'm sticking with White.
Also, there are no running backs on the list. Among otehr things this is because I don't know much about this year's running backs. Anyone out there think there's someone in the late rounds I should have picked?
Anyway, all suggestions appreciated...
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