Curran: Why Peppers to Pats may be tough

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Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough - NBC Sports Blogs
reference to our miguel

 

[IndianPat]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

Yeah, I dont see it happening. The numbers just dont work. Plus, I just dont want him on our team. I have a feeling that his playing attitude and locker room culture just doesnt mesh with Patriots locker room.

We have a ton of picks. Lets draft wisely and surely, atleast, one or two will develop into future Peppers, while leaving enough room to pay everybody. Isnt that what the Patriot's, Bill's and Tom's philosophy is?

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

All reasonable concerns, and quite possibly correct. But not insurmountable. It mainly comes down to whether Peppers really wants to play 3-4 and is willing to take a discount. Not clear. Of the 4 teams rumored to be on Peppers' "short list", 2 (the Eagles and Washington) don't play the 3-4, so I take his wish as coming with a grain of salt. But it isn't clear that he wouldn't be willing to agree to a more "reasonable" contract. He can't have it both ways - get Haynesworth-like money (which he probably won't get anyway) and play OLB in a 3-4 for a limited number of teams.

If Peppers is willing to be somewhat "Moss-like" and agree to a cap-friendly contract in order to make things work, then Currans concerns #2 and #3 go away, and the major issue is making the contract fit under the cap. The biggest single hurdle at this point would be that under league rules, in order to trade for Peppers he would have to sign the franchise tender and the Pats would have to have $16.7M worth of cap space. I'm not sure how they would get around that, even if they would immediately sign him to a more cap-friendly long-term deal.

 

[WhiZa]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

That's a good article on the reality of the situation. I would like to add that he has never played OLB before so the Pats aren't going to give him big money (they never do anyway) to play a position he's never played before. I would say it's all on Peppers. If he really wants OLB and play on the Pats he needs to be willing to take a huge pay cut. Money or happiness, what's more important Julius?

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

We have a ton of picks. Lets draft wisely and surely, atleast, one or two will develop into future Peppers, while leaving enough room to pay everybody. Isnt that what the Patriot's, Bill's and Tom's philosophy is?

I think if it were as simple as just drafting a potentially elite pass rusher instead of bending contracts to fit under the cap, that would be the preferred alternative, by far, for any team. If the Patriots are truly seeking to acquire Peppers, it's likely because they seriously doubt their ability, even while drafting wisely, to grab someone who can fulfill the potential that the Patriots feel Peppers has in him to be a very effective defender in BB's defensive scheme.

 

[Sicilian]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

The more I think about it, the less I want Peppers to come here anyway. At first I was really excited about the prospect, but now I'm thinking there are just more cost effective ways to replace Vrabel.

Even without going the Jason Taylor route, we currently have Woods, TBC, Crable, and Redd. Woods has shown he's adequate on running downs, and TBC has shown an ability to be a decent 3rd down pass rusher. Crable is a wildcard.

While not ideal for THIS year, I think I'd be comfortable going into the season with a platoon of Woods/TBC playing OLB, with Crable and a high draft pick or two working their way in there as they play themselves into the position.

Jason Taylor would be a bonus, but it's nice to think that we can get by without him if terms don't work out.

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

I think if it were as simple as just drafting a potentially elite pass rusher instead of bending contracts to fit under the cap, that would be the preferred alternative, by far, for any team. If the Patriots are truly seeking to acquire Peppers, it's likely because they seriously doubt their ability, even while drafting wisely, to grab someone who can fulfill the potential that the Patriots feel Peppers has in him to be a very effective defender in BB's defensive scheme.

Patchick has documented in other threads that since 2005 teams are something like 0 for 12 trying to find the next DeMarcus Ware/Terrell Suggs/Shawne Merriman in the draft. Not particularly good odds. Some think that Connor Barwin has the best agility since Ware, but he's far from a sure thing. Recent history says that none of the potentially 3-4 OLB conversions will turn into an impact player, even if we were assured of getting one of the desired ones. Trading for Peppers would assure getting the player we want, and while he's not a sure thing either he is a proven impact player in the NFL. I suspect that BB would find a way to make use of his talents even if he does not turn out to be a Ware-like pure 3-4 OLB.

 

[mgcolby]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

I think if it were as simple as just drafting a potentially elite pass rusher instead of bending contracts to fit under the cap, that would be the preferred alternative, by far, for any team. If the Patriots are truly seeking to acquire Peppers, it's likely because they seriously doubt their ability, even while drafting wisely, to grab someone who can fulfill the potential that the Patriots feel Peppers has in him to be a very effective defender in BB's defensive scheme.

Wait are you saying that there won't be an athletic 6'7" 285 pound guy with 4.6 speed available to us in the draft?

I thought they grew on trees....

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

Patchick has documented in other threads that since 2005 teams are something like 0 for 12 trying to find the next DeMarcus Ware/Terrell Suggs/Shawne Merriman in the draft. Not particularly good odds. Some think that Connor Barwin has the best agility since Ware, but he's far from a sure thing. Recent history says that none of the potentially 3-4 OLB conversions will turn into an impact player, even if we were assured of getting one of the desired ones. Trading for Peppers would assure getting the player we want, and while he's not a sure thing either he is a proven impact player in the NFL. I suspect that BB would find a way to make use of his talents even if he does not turn out to be a Ware-like pure 3-4 OLB.

Vernon Gholston comes immediately to mind as someone who must top the list of crummy college DE with lots of hype -> 3-4 premier rushing OLB conversion attempts.

 

[JackBauer]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

Plus, I just dont want him on our team. I have a feeling that his playing attitude and locker room culture just doesnt mesh with Patriots locker room.

Is this "just a feeling," or do you have some reason for holding this opinion?

We have a ton of picks. Lets draft wisely and surely, atleast, one or two will develop into future Peppers, while leaving enough room to pay everybody. Isnt that what the Patriot's, Bill's and Tom's philosophy is?

Do you realize the type of prospect Peppers was when he came out? Now look at this year's draft class; do you see anyone of the same caliber?

Of course you can always get (very) lucky, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it?

 

[Sicilian]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

Patchick has documented in other threads that since 2005 teams are something like 0 for 12 trying to find the next DeMarcus Ware/Terrell Suggs/Shawne Merriman in the draft. Not particularly good odds. Some think that Connor Barwin has the best agility since Ware, but he's far from a sure thing. Recent history says that none of the potentially 3-4 OLB conversions will turn into an impact player, even if we were assured of getting one of the desired ones. Trading for Peppers would assure getting the player we want, and while he's not a sure thing either he is a proven impact player in the NFL. I suspect that BB would find a way to make use of his talents even if he does not turn out to be a Ware-like pure 3-4 OLB.

I imagine drafting linebackers in general for the our 3-4, be they inside or out, would be difficult. I can't imagine a college team really utilizing our type of system in the college game, so when you scout the players you're really just guessing, "Will his skillset translate into what we want him to do, and will he get it."

 

[JackBauer]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

Vernon Gholston comes immediately to mind as someone who must top the list of crummy college DE with lots of hype -> 3-4 premier rushing OLB conversion attempts.

Difference being Peppers has shown actual ability in the NFL at DE, whereas Gholston has not.

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

Difference being Peppers has shown actual ability in the NFL at DE, whereas Gholston has not.

That's my point. BB has 8 years of game film and multiple head-to-head contests to evaluate Peppers and decide whether he thinks Peppers would be likely to succeed at 3-4 OLB. He probably has ideas on how to use him to maximize his chance of success, and how to get value from him even if he doesn't succeed as a "traditional" Pats 3-4 OLB. In contrast, it's much more of a crapshoot evaluating any rookie, and there's no guarantee that any particular prospect we covet will be available.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

If Peppers is willing to be somewhat "Moss-like" and agree to a cap-friendly contract in order to make things work, then Currans concerns #2 and #3 go away, and the major issue is making the contract fit under the cap. The biggest single hurdle at this point would be that under league rules, in order to trade for Peppers he would have to sign the franchise tender and the Pats would have to have $16.7M worth of cap space. I'm not sure how they would get around that, even if they would immediately sign him to a more cap-friendly long-term deal.

My feel on the situation is that Peppers would be unlikely to take a Moss like contract. Imagine if Peppers walked away from his guaranteed franchise tender to play on the cheap for the Patriots and then wound up either playing poorly or suffering some serious injuries. Moss in 2007 and Peppers in 09 are in different points in their career -- people thought Randy had lost a step and was an injury waiting to happen, Peppers just had 14.5 sacks and made another pro bowl, in addition to the whole franchise player tag.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

Difference being Peppers has shown actual ability in the NFL at DE, whereas Gholston has not.

I wasn't comparing Gholston to Peppers at all. I was suggesting that Gholston is the prime example of a guy who had lots of hype as a can't miss OLB pass rush monster who has ended up not having what it takes thus far.

MayoClinic was saying how much failure teams have had in trying to find guys who are even remotely capable of being a Ware or Merriman type player - and, since I really think that's a great point, added in Gholston as an example.

 

[JackBauer]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

I wasn't comparing Gholston to Peppers at all. I was suggesting that Gholston is the prime example of a guy who had lots of hype as a can't miss OLB pass rush monster who has ended up not having what it takes thus far.

MayoClinic was saying how much failure teams have had in trying to find guys who are even remotely capable of being a Ware or Merriman type player - and, since I really think that's a great point, added in Gholston as an example.

Ah, fair enough. I misinterpreted your original post

 

[RoughingthePasser]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

That's my point. BB has 8 years of game film and multiple head-to-head contests to evaluate Peppers and decide whether he thinks Peppers would be likely to succeed at 3-4 OLB. He probably has ideas on how to use him to maximize his chance of success, and how to get value from him even if he doesn't succeed as a "traditional" Pats 3-4 OLB. In contrast, it's much more of a crapshoot evaluating any rookie, and there's no guarantee that any particular prospect we covet will be available.

Great points

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

My feel on the situation is that Peppers would be unlikely to take a Moss like contract. Imagine if Peppers walked away from his guaranteed franchise tender to play on the cheap for the Patriots and then wound up either playing poorly or suffering some serious injuries. Moss in 2007 and Peppers in 09 are in different points in their career -- people thought Randy had lost a step and was an injury waiting to happen, Peppers just had 14.5 sacks and made another pro bowl, in addition to the whole franchise player tag.

I used the term "somewhat Moss-like" intentionally. I wouldn't expect Peppers to take a truely Moss-like $3M one year deal or anything remotely close to that. But I would expect that if we truly wants to be a 3-4 OLB and play for the Pats that he should be willing to take a lesser deal than what he could get on the open market, and one which allows the Pats to fit him under the cap and not break their team salary structure. People were salivating about signing Suggs or Dansby before they were franchised, and didn't seem to feel that would destroy the salary structure. If Peppers wants top dollar if won't work, but if he is willing to settle for a multiyear deal around $8-10M/year structured in a cap friendly way I bet the Pats could find a way to make that fit, assuming they could figure out how to trade for him. The multiyear deal would protect Peppers, who has already made a bundle, and that's not exactly playing for peanuts. It is however a discount over what he could get if he allowed Carolina to trade him to a wider range of teams. If he wants to have his cake and eat it too then things will be very difficult.

 

[Pats726]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

I wasn't comparing Gholston to Peppers at all. I was suggesting that Gholston is the prime example of a guy who had lots of hype as a can't miss OLB pass rush monster who has ended up not having what it takes thus far.

MayoClinic was saying how much failure teams have had in trying to find guys who are even remotely capable of being a Ware or Merriman type player - and, since I really think that's a great point, added in Gholston as an example.

I think many saw that Gholston was a miss...at least some.. I agree that Peppers is a lot better than ones out there, but look at age...and money and...whether he has the football instinct to make that change..I just do not see that all coming together...Messing up the pay structure?? Why do that when one can draft a player or players AND bring in a Taylor and NOT mess anything up at all?? SO you want Peppers...which do u wish to get rid of...WIlfork or Seymour???

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

Re: Curran:Why Peppers To Pats May Be Tough

One thing is for certain in all of this Peppers to the Pats talk. If there is indeed mutual interest between the parties such that a deal can be worked out then the thing we know is absolutely true is Peppers will not break the bank and be a Patriot at the same time.