Will the Colts like living without a salary cap?

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

Putting aside all disdain for the Colts, Peyton Manning is simply too good a player and I highly doubt at this stage in his career he goes below 500.

Perhaps Dungy moving on breathes some new life into a what I perceive to be a stale player group?

This is one of the games I circle every year. EVER YEAR!

As much as I dislike him, PM Is legit... he Is the real deal. He has been around for far too long without being Ryan Leaf.

10-6 is a good barometer.

You have to give him that much cred.

He helped me win FF... yeah, I know, irrelevant.

He is good though. I hate to say that fwiw...

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

I think it's not going to be as crazy as many might think if there is no cap. There may be a splash at first, but it will likely soon wash out. There are only a handful of teams that will be able and willing to just flat out spend. There will be many more that will be the Kansas City Royals of the NFL since there will be n minimum cap when it comes to spending. A big factor will be the fact that guys will have to be in the league for 6 seasons instead of 4 to be UFAs. Most careers don't last that long. A large group of guys won't see uncapped free agency. Throw in the fact that any given Sunday anybody can win. All that said, I hope the work out a new CBA and don't go messing with a good thing.

Redskins = Yankees?

 

[MassPats38]

A big factor will be the fact that guys will have to be in the league for 6 seasons instead of 4 to be UFAs. Most careers don't last that long. A large group of guys won't see uncapped free agency. Throw in the fact that any given Sunday anybody can win. All that said, I hope the work out a new CBA and don't go messing with a good thing.

Good points and I agree as to the CBA.

I do not see uncapped years as a good thing. It cannot be denied, given the recent dynasties existing prior to the salary cap (like the Cowboys built by that stupid trade by the Vikings for Walker), that every year becomes a little more interesting and it is harder to hold on to the trophy.

 

[solman]

A big factor will be the fact that guys will have to be in the league for 6 seasons instead of 4 to be UFAs.

Where did you (and much of the rest of the world) get this idea?

Article 19 Section 1A of the CBA clearly states that players with 5 or more Accrued Seasons shall become a UFA.

 

[PatsFan37]

I think it's not going to be as crazy as many might think if there is no cap. There may be a splash at first, but it will likely soon wash out. There are only a handful of teams that will be able and willing to just flat out spend. There will be many more that will be the Kansas City Royals of the NFL since there will be n minimum cap when it comes to spending.

Since MassPats quoted the bottom half of your statement, I'll quote the top, as I think that's the most telling.

There'll be more than a few teams with low profits that will hunker down and ride out the uncapped year for several reasons: (a) a bargaining weapon against the NFLPA (b) a chance to stoke their bottom line.

For the teams willing to spend, consider that players already get nearly 60% of revenue. If you take a few teams out of that equation, the big spenders have to make up the difference just to bring the total spending back to that of a capped year. What that means is a few headlines and the chance for the big spenders to break their own salary structure and create discontent in the ranks of their unrewarded players.

The Patriots might take the opportunity to re-sign a few of their own. They might go after one or two high-value FAs who would otherwise not fit the cap. But I doubt they'd get into a bidding war with Snyder or Jones -- they've maintained a salary structure for years, they're not about to break it in one foolish year.

So if the Patriots, one of the wealthier franchises, push back from the table, who stays? Will there be enough big spenders to radically change the game? I don't know, but I'm with that crazy Colts fan in thinking an uncapped year might not be as dramatic as people say.

 

[workhorse]

Where did you (and much of the rest of the world) get this idea?

Article 19 Section 1A of the CBA clearly states that players with 5 or more Accrued Seasons shall become a UFA.

In 2010 it's 6 years, 2011 it's five.

Uncapped years would actually limit free agency

The article touches on one other area. The playoff impact. The "Final Eight" plan. Where you can only sign a guy when you have a free agent signed away. The one below has more detail.

Question: What is the Final Eight Plan?

Answer: During the uncapped year, the eight clubs that make the divisional playoffs in the previous season have additional restrictions that limit their ability to sign Unrestricted Free Agents from other clubs. In general, the four clubs participating in the Championship Games are limited in the number of free agents that they may sign; the limit is determined by the number of their own free agents signing with other clubs. For the four clubs that lose in the Divisional playoffs, in addition to having the ability to sign free agents based on the number of their own free agents signing with other clubs, they may also sign players based on specific financial parameters.

Collective Bargaining Agreement - Q & A - NFL - CBSSports.com Football

 

[Rob0729]

Division

Texans (2)
Jaguars (2)
Titans (2)

Home

Patriots
Jets
49ers
Seahawks
Broncos

Away

Bills
Dolphins
Cardinals
Rams
Ravens

It's tough for me to find 8 losses in that schedule unless Manning gets hurt again.

This time last year, everyone thought the Dolphins and Ravens would be easy wins and that the Seahawks would be a tough challenge. It is impossible at this point and try to pick what teams will be the doormats of the NFL.

The Colts showed a lot of cracks in the armor last year and were good/lucky enough to capitalize on other teams mistakes and win games they had no business winning (Sage Rosenfels giftwrapping a game, a defensive TD vs. the lowly Browns when Manning and the offense could only muster 3 points all game). Teams can't win those type of games year after year. Unless the Colts improve over last year, there is a good chance they lose those type of games this year.

Looking at their games last year, there are about 7 games that the Colts could have lost or should have lost if a play or two went the other direction. If they decline from last year, they are going to lose some or most of those types of games.

The Colts seem to be declining eventhough their record last year didn't show that. They were a weak playoff team last year and showed it by getting beaten by another weak playoff team in San Deigo. They could improve, but they may also take rapid decline if Caldwell is not anywhere near the coach as Dungy. Everyone thinks the Pats could win as long as they had a healthy Brady, but what if you took Belichick out of the equation? Dungy is not as good as Belichick, but he is no slouch.

 

[solman]

In 2010 it's 6 years, 2011 it's five.

Uncapped years would actually limit free agency

The article touches on one other area. The playoff impact. The "Final Eight" plan. Where you can only sign a guy when you have a free agent signed away. The one below has more detail.



Collective Bargaining Agreement - Q & A - NFL - CBSSports.com Football

Thanks. Miguel found me the relevant section (Article LVI) and I have admitted to cluelessness.

 

[spacecrime]

Thanks. Miguel found me the relevant section (Article LVI) and I have admitted to cluelessness.

Hey, I read the relative section and I am still confused

Edit: so confused I evidently don't know the difference between relative and relevant

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Hey, I read the relative section and I am still confused

In space, no one can hear you scream

 

[spacecrime]

I think it's not going to be as crazy as many might think if there is no cap. There may be a splash at first, but it will likely soon wash out. There are only a handful of teams that will be able and willing to just flat out spend. There will be many more that will be the Kansas City Royals of the NFL since there will be n minimum cap when it comes to spending. A big factor will be the fact that guys will have to be in the league for 6 seasons instead of 4 to be UFAs. Most careers don't last that long. A large group of guys won't see uncapped free agency. Throw in the fact that any given Sunday anybody can win. All that said, I hope the work out a new CBA and don't go messing with a good thing.

Jeez, this makes a lot of sense. Did you leave your computer unattended still logged on, and maybe a Pats fan found it and posted under your screen ID?

I think there will be some teams that spend way less than they do now, some that will spend about the same, and some that will spend more. You would think that those who spend more would win more, and they probably will, but spending more on poor choices won't help. Spending less and drafting wisely/getting the right FA will be more important.

I expect the Patriots and Cowboys to be the Red Sox and Yankees of the uncapped NFL, and the Colts and Steelers the Marlins and Diamondbacks. Just my hunch.

 

[falloutboy14]

I wouldn't say that the Colts were a weak playoff team. Last off-season we lost one guard to free-agency then another for the year in injury. So for the majority of the season we had the rotational guy, and a rookie starting at both guard spots. I don't think there's a team in the league that could go through that and not take a hit.

Regarding the Chargers playoff game. The game-changing factor in that game was the punter. I'm not going to go back and check, but I'm fairly certain that every or near-every Chargers score resulted from the following situation: Scifres's punts the ball to land within the 5 yard line, we can't get out and have to punt, they get the ball between our 40-50. LT or not, that's a good offense, and our defense played a phenominal game given the circumstances.

Regarding the Colts in the future, Manning has 5-7 years left in the tank. Assuming that we're able to hold onto rookies for 5 years instead of 3, if we draft/scout well, we can replace anyone who is lost. While the Colts aren't the most financially sound team, Irsay is committed to winning. He won't take advantage of the removal of the minimum salary cap, certainly not while Peyton is on the team.

To finish, I have a question: What happens to the draft over the next few years? I've heard that the draft will end at some points, if no new CBA is created and was wondering if anyone could verify.

 

[solman]

To finish, I have a question: What happens to the draft over the next few years? I've heard that the draft will end at some points, if no new CBA is created and was wondering if anyone could verify.

The owners have announced their intention to hold a 2011 draft, even if there is no CBA.

The owners will very likely lock out the players before playing 2011 in the absence of a CBA. The precise timing of this, whether the players are forced to strike preemptively, whether the union is decertified, and a whole bunch of other fun issues are the province of labor lawyers.

In my opinion, there is a very real possibility (~30%) that the CBA has not been completed before the 2011 draft takes place, but very little chance that actual televised games get canceled.

 

[workhorse]

The owners have announced their intention to hold a 2011 draft, even if there is no CBA.

The owners will very likely lock out the players before playing 2011 in the absence of a CBA. The precise timing of this, whether the players are forced to strike preemptively, whether the union is decertified, and a whole bunch of other fun issues are the province of labor lawyers.

In my opinion, there is a very real possibility (~30%) that the CBA has not been completed before the 2011 draft takes place, but very little chance that actual televised games get canceled.

I know it's a real possibility, but I hope both sides are smart enough to get something worked out. Learn from the failures of the others sports like baseball. In down economy don't give fans one more reason to make a decision to not buy tickets.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The owners have announced their intention to hold a 2011 draft, even if there is no CBA.

The owners will very likely lock out the players before playing 2011 in the absence of a CBA. The precise timing of this, whether the players are forced to strike preemptively, whether the union is decertified, and a whole bunch of other fun issues are the province of labor lawyers.

In my opinion, there is a very real possibility (~30%) that the CBA has not been completed before the 2011 draft takes place, but very little chance that actual televised games get canceled.

Actually the CBA runs through the 2011 draft...

Thereafter there can be no draft but also no revenue sharing or pooling of TV revenues, etc. absent a new CBA because unless those kinds of things are collectively bargained for they constitute unfair labor practices and anti trust violations. They will get one done eventually. The kicker will be who blinks first (players agree to <60% of revenue and a new cap to insure a spending floor remains, or owners who want their revenue checks to resume agree to 60%+ even absent a cap because they will then have the ability to pocket as much of that pooled revenue as they want...)

 

[Rob0729]

I wouldn't say that the Colts were a weak playoff team. Last off-season we lost one guard to free-agency then another for the year in injury. So for the majority of the season we had the rotational guy, and a rookie starting at both guard spots. I don't think there's a team in the league that could go through that and not take a hit.

Regarding the Chargers playoff game. The game-changing factor in that game was the punter. I'm not going to go back and check, but I'm fairly certain that every or near-every Chargers score resulted from the following situation: Scifres's punts the ball to land within the 5 yard line, we can't get out and have to punt, they get the ball between our 40-50. LT or not, that's a good offense, and our defense played a phenominal game given the circumstances.

Regarding the Colts in the future, Manning has 5-7 years left in the tank. Assuming that we're able to hold onto rookies for 5 years instead of 3, if we draft/scout well, we can replace anyone who is lost. While the Colts aren't the most financially sound team, Irsay is committed to winning. He won't take advantage of the removal of the minimum salary cap, certainly not while Peyton is on the team.

To finish, I have a question: What happens to the draft over the next few years? I've heard that the draft will end at some points, if no new CBA is created and was wondering if anyone could verify.

You are overstating the punting in the loss. The Colts didn't have good field position for a lot of the game, but only two possessions started inside the 5, another on the 7, and one on the ten while 8 others were more than 10 yards. The Colts had a drive that started on the 26 that went 5 plays and ended on downs. Another drive that started on the 20 and went three and out. Another that started on the 21 and went 10 plays for 22 yards and ended with a punt. Let's not blame crappy field position for the Colts' loss.

As for the Colts and a non-cap year. It is all about the revenues. Indy is still a small market town and even with the new stadium doesn't generate the revenue the larger market teams are. In fact that is why they were a potential LA candidate before they built the new stadium. Irsay could commit to win, but he is committed not to go bankrupt either. If the big guys like Snyder and Jerry Jones decide to act like the Red Sox and Yankees in an uncapped NFL, there is nothing the smaller market teams can do to compete. Not sure if this will happen though.

The draft is in place until 2011 from what I understand. After that, the league shuts down. In theory, after 2011 there will be no draft and college players entering the NFL would be immediate free agents.

 

[Gumby]

The draft is in place until 2011 from what I understand. After that, the league shuts down. In theory, after 2011 there will be no draft and college players entering the NFL would be immediate free agents.

Does that mean 2010 will be a bad draft year (less underclassmen declaring) if cba not resolved by then?

 

[solman]

I know it's a real possibility, but I hope both sides are smart enough to get something worked out. Learn from the failures of the others sports like baseball. In down economy don't give fans one more reason to make a decision to not buy tickets.

There are a couple of uncommon circumstances in play.

1. In this negotiation it is the owners who are attempting to clawback money from the players. Other than the NHL lockout (that went really well...), I can't recall another situation in which the purpose of the negotiation was so clearly an attempt by the owners to take back money already given to the players. This is a difficult thing for unions to accept.

2. This particular union will have new leadership and poor unity. It is easy to imagine a genuine attempt at decertification (i.e. organized by dissatisfied players or agents).

I think there is a real possibility of labor strife.

The reason I discount the possibility of games actually getting canceled is, as you say, that the dollars at stake are enormous. Losing a single season of NFL earnings can have catastrophic life long consequences for an NFL player. But the owners are going to try claw back just 2% of player salaries. After four years in which player salaries have risen by 50%, that's not a lot. There may not even be a year in which player salaries decline in absolute terms.

 

[solman]

Actually the CBA runs through the 2011 draft...

Thereafter there can be no draft but also no revenue sharing or pooling of TV revenues, etc. absent a new CBA because unless those kinds of things are collectively bargained for they constitute unfair labor practices and anti trust violations. They will get one done eventually. The kicker will be who blinks first (players agree to <60% of revenue and a new cap to insure a spending floor remains, or owners who want their revenue checks to resume agree to 60%+ even absent a cap because they will then have the ability to pocket as much of that pooled revenue as they want...)

I am not a labor lawyer, obviously. But I play one in internet forums:

I am under the impression that in order for this to happen, the union has to actually decertify and then individual players have to press these claims in federal court.

Moreover, the owners are not without recourse. They can choose to lock the players out (as I expect). Alternatively, they can simply suspend those business practices that run afoul of any court ruling. This would present serious problems for the NFL, as it is currently organized. But the main problem in past years (the absence of any limitation on player salaries) is no longer unacceptably bad.

The extraordinary success of past NFLPA negotiations have brought about a situation in which players now have more to fear from a strike than the owners.

 

[solman]

Does that mean 2010 will be a bad draft year (less underclassmen declaring) if cba not resolved by then?

I would guess that 2010 will be a slightly better year than average because underclassmen who stay in school an extra year might not have jobs waiting for them a year later.

If things are still in doubt at the time of the 2011 draft, more players will stay in school, making it a bad year.

In that happens, 2012 will be that much better than usual.