Will the Colts like living without a salary cap?

[solman]

All this talk about uncapped years has me wondering how our would be rivals, the Indianapolis Colts, will deal with one or more uncapped seasons.

I've long been of the opinion that the Colt's backloaded contracts have created an untenable cap situation for them. [In honor of my analysis, Ryan the Colts fan has volunteered to donate to Miguel's favorite charity after the 2009 season (unless by some miracle the Colts win two playoff games)]

In 2009 some of those negative effects start to hit.

Marvin Harrison will count as $7.4M against the cap, but he will not play a game.
Peyton counts as $21.2M against the cap.
Dallas Clark costs $13.9M
Dwight Freeney costs $11.2M
Reggie Wayne: $7.4M
Bob Sanders: $7.2M
Robert Mathins: $6.9M

I assume that some of this has been or will be restructured, but has not yet been reflected on the Colt's salary cap page.

But its not clear what restructuring means in the context of an uncapped year.

An uncapped year can be used to remove some of the back loading, but it can also expose the Colts to the reality of their weak financial base.

Forbes (which I put little stock in, but I don't have a better alternative) has Indy tied for the third lowest revenue in the NFL in 2007, and the seventh lowest operating income.

Opening a new stadium must have improved their top line, but they can't afford to compete with genuinely successful teams like New England.

It helps that the new stadium is financed by the tax payers in a deal that is generally considered to screw the tax payers. This sweetheart deal will not only improve their bottom line, it will also put pressure on Indy to field a team that can compete with New England, even in an uncapped year.

Ultimately I think its unclear whether the Colts benefit or not from an uncapped year. With Dungy gone, I think they are likely to continue their slide towards mediocrity whether or not there is a cap in 2010. They are unlikely to be able to gain a significant advantage by overspending, but they are also unlikely to dump salary (as other teams with limited revenues will be inclined to do) due to their local political situation.

 

[maverick4]

Dallas Clark at 13.9M cap hit, is ridiculous.
The Colts won several miracle games last year. This year their true talent will show. They might not even be a .500 team next season.

 

[Sicilian]

Dallas Clark at 13.9M cap hit, is ridiculous.
The Colts won several miracle games last year. This year their true talent will show. They might not even be a .500 team next season.

Peyton really didn't even return to form until halfway through the season last year. With him healthy for the whole season, I just don't see the Colts taking 4 steps backwards, even with a new coach. My prediction is 10-6.

 

[workhorse]

The Colts won several miracle games last year. This year their true talent will show. They might not even be a .500 team next season.

This statement has been said before I think.

 

[khayos]

I think the only detriment to the Colts might be that their smart cap knowledge and drafting will be less of an impact where big market teams can simply outspend them a la moneyball.

 

[BradyBranch39]

The Colts won several miracle games last year.

I wonder if they have Minnesota on their schedule.

 

[Deus Irae]

Polian will get new rules passed to make sure he can still rig the game.

 

[ausbacker]

Putting aside all disdain for the Colts, Peyton Manning is simply too good a player and I highly doubt at this stage in his career he goes below 500.

Perhaps Dungy moving on breathes some new life into a what I perceive to be a stale player group?

This is one of the games I circle every year. EVER YEAR!

 

[solman]

Putting aside all disdain for the Colts, Peyton Manning is simply too good a player and I highly doubt at this stage in his career he goes below 500.

Perhaps Dungy moving on breathes some new life into a what I perceive to be a stale player group?

This is one of the games I circle every year. EVER YEAR!

Its a good thing that Peyton is able to win games on his own. Most players require a whole team to put one in the win column.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Putting aside all disdain for the Colts, Peyton Manning is simply too good a player and I highly doubt at this stage in his career he goes below 500.

I like Manning as a player AND as a self depricating ad huckster. He's too good to let the team slip below .500.

 

[ausbacker]

Its a good thing that Peyton is able to win games on his own. Most players require a whole team to put one in the win column.

Or a few guys in black and white stripped shirts helping you along each week

 

[Deus Irae]

I like Manning as a player AND as a self depricating ad huckster. He's too good to let the team slip below .500.

Division

Texans (2)
Jaguars (2)
Titans (2)

Home

Patriots
Jets
49ers
Seahawks
Broncos

Away

Bills
Dolphins
Cardinals
Rams
Ravens

It's tough for me to find 8 losses in that schedule unless Manning gets hurt again.

 

[N.Eman]

Polian will get new rules passed to make sure he can still rig the game.

I think the same way. There is always something to jump from A to C with polian and Dictator Goodell.

 

[BradyFTW!]

This statement has been said before I think.

Hahaha, pretty much every year. The truth is that, as long as Peyton's Peyton, the Colts will be good.

 

[solman]

It's tough for me to find 8 losses in that schedule unless Manning gets hurt again.

Which 8 games against which teams are you projecting as unlosable after just two weeks of free agency?

 

[Deus Irae]

Which 8 games against which teams are you projecting as unlosable after just two weeks of free agency?

It wasn't about specific games, it was about 8 losses. As of right now, I don't see 8 losses for the Colts. Things can change, but that's really not the point of talking about it tonight, is it?

 

[MassPats38]

I expect the reports of Indy's demise are much exaggerated.

Polian is pretty much the reason I do not like the Colts, but that team has a way of identifying talent fitting their system and working with Manning. As long as he is playing and healthy, I don't view them as a .500 team.

And frankly, I look forward to the game against the Colts probably more than I do the Jets and Chargers games. When the Colts start to stink again, they are just another team in the NFL.

As for salary cap issues, it is hard to tell which NFL teams become the Red Sox and Yankees and which become the Marlins. I do not expect the Colts will be the bottom tier in the uncapped world, but how many owners do you see dumping all profits above the salary cap to field a winner? I think fans are envisioning $30 million salaries, but the reality is owners wants their profits and breaking the bank on salaries for an entire team probably isn't the way to get rich. Teams may spend more than the present cap, but I would be surprised if it was much more for any team.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Polian will get new rules passed to make sure he can still rig the game.

Ain't that the Friggin' truth. It's nothing short of football politics, with earmarks going against us.

 

[WhiZa]

Box posted something similar to this last month: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...15679-indy-reports-cap-difficulty-2009-a.html

and yes, I still think that 720 million dollar stadium will effect their plans in the uncapped year.

 

[workhorse]

I expect the reports of Indy's demise are much exaggerated.

Polian is pretty much the reason I do not like the Colts, but that team has a way of identifying talent fitting their system and working with Manning. As long as he is playing and healthy, I don't view them as a .500 team.

And frankly, I look forward to the game against the Colts probably more than I do the Jets and Chargers games. When the Colts start to stink again, they are just another team in the NFL.

As for salary cap issues, it is hard to tell which NFL teams become the Red Sox and Yankees and which become the Marlins. I do not expect the Colts will be the bottom tier in the uncapped world, but how many owners do you see dumping all profits above the salary cap to field a winner? I think fans are envisioning $30 million salaries, but the reality is owners wants their profits and breaking the bank on salaries for an entire team probably isn't the way to get rich. Teams may spend more than the present cap, but I would be surprised if it was much more for any team.

I think it's not going to be as crazy as many might think if there is no cap. There may be a splash at first, but it will likely soon wash out. There are only a handful of teams that will be able and willing to just flat out spend. There will be many more that will be the Kansas City Royals of the NFL since there will be n minimum cap when it comes to spending. A big factor will be the fact that guys will have to be in the league for 6 seasons instead of 4 to be UFAs. Most careers don't last that long. A large group of guys won't see uncapped free agency. Throw in the fact that any given Sunday anybody can win. All that said, I hope the work out a new CBA and don't go messing with a good thing.