The Front Seven - Use Our Top 3 Picks?

[mgteich]

I expect another wide receiver in free agency. Otherwise, we will need to draft one. We should also add a free agent jag S, a FB, a LS and a backup QB. We might even add yet another corner if Belichick thinks we need yet another. Let's presume the free agency WR for the moment.
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First, is it reasonable to expect to draft
47 or 58 safety (use 120 and/or 186 to move up if necessary)
89 interior lineman
99 OT
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That leaves us with 23, 34 and 47 or 58.
Given the above expectations, aren't our top 3 priorities DE, OLB and ILB? Shouldn't our first three picks be used to attempt to meet these needs? Alternatively, we could use 58 or 47 to move up from 34. We would then have two future starters signed to 5 year contracts.

 

[bakes781]

You seem to be locked into this notion that we need to assign a certain position at each pick, when that's not how a draft works IMO. It all depends on how it plays out and where the value is at the time.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I expect another wide receiver in free agency. Otherwise, we will need to draft one. We should also add a free agent jag S, a FB, a LS and a backup QB. We might even add yet another corner if Belichick thinks we need yet another. Let's presume the free agency WR for the moment.
==============================
First, is it reasonable to expect to draft
47 or 58 safety (use 120 and/or 186 to move up if necessary)
89 interior lineman
99 OT
==============================
That leaves us with 23, 34 and 47 or 58.
Given the above expectations, aren't our top 3 priorities DE, OLB and ILB? Shouldn't our first three picks be used to attempt to meet these needs? Alternatively, we could use 58 or 47 to move up from 34. We would then have two future starters signed to 5 year contracts.

Has Mike Wright signed with someone else? Is that why DE is so high? Or are you looking ahead to 2010?

How can CB not be a top 3 priority?

 

[mgteich]

1) Mike Wright has not signed anywhere.
2) I am also looking to 2010. We have only Warren signed through this year.
3) Given the above, we will need at least one DE.
4) Some of us believe that we have two potential starters in Wheatley and Wilhite. We also have two starters in Hobbs and Springs (we still need NFL verification). We usually carry four corners (not counting the STers and utility players who could be of any position). Since we have players for four roster spots, I don't see CB as a top 3 need. I have no objection to us signing or drafting a corner. I just don't see the need.

Has Mike Wright signed with someone else? Is that why DE is so high? Or are you looking ahead to 2010?

How can CB not be a top 3 priority?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

1) Mike Wright has not signed anywhere.
2) I am also looking to 2010. We have only Warren signed through this year.
3) Given the above, we will need at least one DE.
4) Some of us believe that we have two potential starters in Wheatley and Wilhite. We also have two starters in Hobbs and Springs (we still need NFL verification). We usually carry four corners (not counting the STers and utility players who could be of any position). Since we have players for four roster spots, I don't see CB as a top 3 need. I have no objection to us signing or drafting a corner. I just don't see the need.

What did you see in Wheatly and Wilhite that makes you thinnk they are starter material?

Although I love Wheatley's potential and agree, he could be the next Pat CB draft pick to develop into a pro-bowl corner, I am concerned about his long term durability issues. (Namely the wrists.)

And Wilhite, I can not figure out how he is still on the roster.

 

[mgteich]

It's not that I am locked into specific positions as certain picks. What I list is my best guesses of what the value is at various positions. BTW, there are many player options at these picks for each of the positions.

So, let's say many of us project a safety at 47/58. We might project Delmas or Chung or Smith or Moore or even Rashad Johnson. Many of us see value at a position of need coinciding with our two picks. yes, a great player might fall, and other things might happen, but a safety at 47/58 seems a good projection. I feel the same way about OL help at 58, 89 or 99.

You seem to be locked into this notion that we need to assign a certain position at each pick, when that's not how a draft works IMO. It all depends on how it plays out and where the value is at the time.

 

[mgteich]

The quick answer is that they are potential starting material because we drafted them early and have no intention of cutting them in their sophomore year. Wilhite played nickel and started. I'm absolutely sure that Belichick is much more satisfied with their performance than you are.

If the test of a draftee is first year performance, don't bother after the middle of the first round. Just trade your picks. It is a misuse of resources to cut early draftees after one year, especially ones that have been injured. In any case, Belichick does not cut 1st-4th round draft choice before their second year, barring major injuries.

We have spent our resources on cornerback. Springs will likely cost $3M a year. We used a 2nd and 4th last year, and a 6th the year before (also still with us).

I think that we have our four corners for 2009 and our starters and nickel for 2010. If we don't, then we will sign another free agent this year or next, not draft yet another unknown.

Obviously, a highly valued corner could fall into our hands or we could draft a corner late, but a position where we have four starters and future starters for roster positions is NOT a top 3 position of need. There may INDEED be a top 3 need for improvement from 2008 performance of the corners but that is another issue.

What did you see in Wheatly and Wilhite that makes you thinnk they are starter material?

Although I love Wheatley's potential and agree, he could be the next Pat CB draft pick to develop into a pro-bowl corner, I am concerned about his long term durability issues. (Namely the wrists.)

And Wilhite, I can not figure out how he is still on the roster.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The quick answer is that they are potential starting material because we drafted them early and have no intention of cutting them in their sophomore year. Wilhite played nickel and started. I'm absolutely sure that Belichick is much more satisfied with their performance than you are.

If the test of a draftee is first year performance, don't bother after the middle of the first round. Just trade your picks. It is a misuse of resources to cut early draftees after one year, especially ones that have been injured. In any case, Belichick does not cut 1st-4th round draft choice before their second year, barring major injuries.

We have spent our resources on cornerback. Springs will likely cost $3M a year. We used a 2nd and 4th last year, and a 6th the year before (also still with us).

I think that we have our four corners for 2009 and our starters and nickel for 2010. If we don't, then we will sign another free agent this year or next, not draft yet another unknown.

Obviously, a highly valued corner could fall into our hands or we could draft a corner late, but a position where we have four starters and future starters for roster positions is NOT a top 3 position of need. There may INDEED be a top 3 need for improvement from 2008 performance of the corners but that is another issue.

Do you really think Springs has 16 games left in his body?

Whatever happened to the BB's mantra of creating competition at every position? Do we just give automatic passes to high draft picks? If that were the case wouldn't Bethel and Chad be our starters at WR?

 

[mgteich]

Three corners will get almost all the reps at the starting spots and at nickel. We have four corners competing for those reps. To me, that is competition.

We also have Richardson competing for dime back with whoever loses the above competition, with Spann, and the yet-to-be brought in #3 and #4 safety.

There is plenty of competition. And yes, I expect another free agent corner or two to be in camp. Call them competition also.

Do you really think Springs has 16 games left in his body?

Whatever happened to the BB's mantra of creating competition at every position? Do we just give automatic passes to high draft picks? If that were the case wouldn't Bethel and Chad be our starters at WR?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Three corners will get almost all the reps at the starting spots and at nickel. We have four corners competing for those reps. To me, that is competition.

We also have Richardson competing for dime back with whoever loses the above competition, with Spann, and the yet-to-be brought in #3 and #4 safety.

There is plenty of competition. And yes, I expect another free agent corner or two to be in camp. Call them competition also.

The scenario above presents some measure of competition, but how many times in the last 6 years have the Pats gone through a season using only 4 CB's?

 

[iapatsfan]

The best pass rushing OLB. Of all of the 3-4 teams, our OLB position is among the worst. We have nobody to get after the QB consistently at OLB. If that is not improved, our pass D will be torched worse than last year.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, corners do get injured. The question is how many we should start the season with. I expect to start the season with four corners, three safeties and one swing defensive back (perhaps Lew Sanders). In addition, I expect that one of the STers will be an emergency corner, perhaps Richardson or Spann.

The scenario above presents some measure of competition, but how many times in the last 6 years have the Pats gone through a season using only 4 CB's?

 

[DocE]

I disagree with the idea that any pick should be pre-determined to go to any set position (or group of positions). I think the only positions on the roster where no.23 really can't go are QB, RB, TE, and C.

Who gets taken with those first 3 picks depends a lot more on the Patriots board, and position scarcity in the draft, than the Patriots biggest need. If there is a guy they believe can be elite at T, WR, S, or CB, they take that player over the 2010 need on the Dline and probably over the 2009 need at OLB. That's just my take on it, I won't claim to know what the Patriots are thinking just my belief through my own research on how drafts are run

As for the CB discussion between Mgteich and Ochmed.

The Nickel CB is essentially a starter in the NFL with the proliferation of 3 WR sets. Currently the Patriots have Ellis Hobbs, Shawn Springs, Terrence Wheatley, and Jonathan Wilhite. We know that the Eagles had interest in Springs as a S, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Shawn end up there at some point in his Patriots career. We also know that Springs has been unable to play 16 games for a long, long time. The jury is out on both Wheatley and Wilhite as far as ability to play in the NFL, with Wheatley having the additional question about his health.

I think given the need to have 3 solid CB's and the questions surrounding 3 of our top 4 CB's, that the Patriots still need to address the position. I am not sure whether adding a veteran or a rookie is the right answer. If the Pats add another veteran, he probably won't play special teams which gives us 2 CB's on the gameday roster who won't play special teams which would seem to be a difficult challenge. If the Patriots bring in a rookie, he will play special teams, but he will be unproven as a CB (and on special teams).

 

[mgteich]

Bringing in a rookie who likely will not be active on Game Day won't help much. He wouldn't be active since we have no need to dress more than four corners, and the rookie is unlikely to be one of our best special teamers.

If the team was so unsure of Springs being able to play, than we shouldn't have signed him. If we are unsure of the quality of the corners for 2009, then we need a veteran like Bidden not a rookie. A rookie would be drafted as part of the future. I have absolutely no objection to signing a veteran corner. I think drafting one early hurts the team by not addressing one of our needs.

I disagree with the idea that any pick should be pre-determined to go to any set position (or group of positions). I think the only positions on the roster where no.23 really can't go are QB, RB, TE, and C.

Who gets taken with those first 3 picks depends a lot more on the Patriots board, and position scarcity in the draft, than the Patriots biggest need. If there is a guy they believe can be elite at T, WR, S, or CB, they take that player over the 2010 need on the Dline and probably over the 2009 need at OLB. That's just my take on it, I won't claim to know what the Patriots are thinking just my belief through my own research on how drafts are run

As for the CB discussion between Mgteich and Ochmed.

The Nickel CB is essentially a starter in the NFL with the proliferation of 3 WR sets. Currently the Patriots have Ellis Hobbs, Shawn Springs, Terrence Wheatley, and Jonathan Wilhite. We know that the Eagles had interest in Springs as a S, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Shawn end up there at some point in his Patriots career. We also know that Springs has been unable to play 16 games for a long, long time. The jury is out on both Wheatley and Wilhite as far as ability to play in the NFL, with Wheatley having the additional question about his health.

I think given the need to have 3 solid CB's and the questions surrounding 3 of our top 4 CB's, that the Patriots still need to address the position. I am not sure whether adding a veteran or a rookie is the right answer. If the Pats add another veteran, he probably won't play special teams which gives us 2 CB's on the gameday roster who won't play special teams which would seem to be a difficult challenge. If the Patriots bring in a rookie, he will play special teams, but he will be unproven as a CB (and on special teams).

 

[jsull87]

i can see us signing maybe one more cb or a cb/fs like sean smith

 

[bucky]

Bringing in a rookie who likely will not be active on Game Day won't help much. He wouldn't be active since we have no need to dress more than four corners, and the rookie is unlikely to be one of our best special teamers.

If the team was so unsure of Springs being able to play, than we shouldn't have signed him. If we are unsure of the quality of the corners for 2009, then we need a veteran like Bidden not a rookie. A rookie would be drafted as part of the future. I have absolutely no objection to signing a veteran corner. I think drafting one early hurts the team by not addressing one of our needs.

I'm sure BB isn't going to spend the 23rd pick in the draft on a guy who he doesn't think is better than Wheatley or Wilhite. I would think; however, that a guy like Alphonso Smith, for example, would be your starting nickel from day 1 and eventually become a starting CB.

Then there's the safety position - where we only have 2 players right now and one of them is best suited as a part-time in-the-box player (at least that's the opinion of most on this board, including myself).

If you're going to argue against drafting a rookie who won't suit up from day 1, then how can you justify drafting a DL where we're already 5 deep with a lot better quality than at any other position? I would actually say that the top 2 needs on this team are OLB and S. The next 2 are WR and CB. And only then do you get to DL, OL and ILB.

 

[mgteich]

People are entitled to their opinions. If there are those who think that CB is still a first round high priority, then so be it. I understand that there are those who might draft Jenkins or Smith because they have them as a top 15 pick on their boards. Smith works because he would play safety. I would think it a huge price to pay since there are so many safeties that will be available in the second who are judged to be almost at the same level by most.
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Now that I know pretty much what we are getting in free agency, I would need to add WR to my top priorities along with ILB, OLB and DE. DE is a high priority because Warren is the only DE signed through next year and we have an open roster spot since we have not re-signed Wright. I do NOT expect us to extend both Seymour and Green, so there is a real need. Maybe the DE need is lower than OLB, ILB and WR for pick 23 and 34. We'll see what is available.

 

[KY Pats Fan]

If history as taught us Pats fans anything is that BB does not build his draft for needs, it is BPA. And most of the time we sit back and say "WTF" during draft. I remember Light and Mankins in particular and how the board was ripping those two picks. IMO, they've been solid picks. Point is, we have NO idea what BB is thinking....

 

[mgteich]

Now those are interesting examples. Both Mankins and Light were "needs" picks much more that BPA. It is indeed sad when the posters of a board like this often have so little regard for linemen, offensive and defensive.

WTF comes when we have never heard of a player (say Wheatley) not because we don't like the position of the player picked. Of course, it must be noted that we posters don't like drafting tight ends on Day One .

If history as taught us Pats fans anything is that BB does not build his draft for needs, it is BPA. And most of the time we sit back and say "WTF" during draft. I remember Light and Mankins in particular and how the board was ripping those two picks. IMO, they've been solid picks. Point is, we have NO idea what BB is thinking....

 

[alvinnf]

If history as taught us Pats fans anything is that BB does not build his draft for needs, it is BPA. And most of the time we sit back and say "WTF" during draft. I remember Light and Mankins in particular and how the board was ripping those two picks. IMO, they've been solid picks. Point is, we have NO idea what BB is thinking....

You are absolutely spot on. This year seems even more exciting because we think they have narrowed the choices down with some of their FA picks of late. But the reality is they are just doing what they always do and that is open themselves up to flexibility, nothing else.