If Connor Barwin was drafted at 23......

[Seneschal2]

I personally see Barwin being taken with the #34 pick more than with #23, at least at this point. I do see him as becoming a starter by the end of the year, with Woods being a 1 year caretaker as a starting OLB.

The problem that I have is that almost all of the players that I like for the Patriots are probably somewhere in the 21-60 range: Barwin, Clint Sintim, Larry English, Clay Matthews at LB; Jarron Gilbert at DE; Sean Smith, Alphonso Smith, DJ Moore and Darius Butler at CB; Louis Delmas, Patrick Chung and William Moore at S; William Beatty and Eben Britton at OT; and Alex Mack, Mack Unger and Eric Wood at OG/C. Not to mention WR options (Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Brian Robiskie).

There aren't that many 1-20 prospects that I see as really meeting the Pats' needs and system, and who have even a remote chance of falling. I don't really want Malcolm Jenkins or Vontae Davis. There's no safety worth a top-20 pick. I don't think Brian Orapko will be a good OLB conversion, and I'm not sure about Everett Brown, Aaron Maybin or Michael Johnson. I don't think Maualuga is worth a 1st round pick, not to mention Laurinaitis. I don't want Jeremy Maclin or Darius Heyward-Bey. We don't need a TE and I think that Brandon Pettigrew is only a slightly better version of Chris Baker anyway. We certainly don't need a QB. I don't think either Andre Smith or Michael Oher is right for the Pats.

That leaves me with 5 players that I would love to fall to somewhere within range of us: 2 OT's (Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe), 1 WR (Michael Crabtree), 1 DT (BJ Raji), and 1 LB (Aaron Curry). The chance of us even being remotely close enough to trade up for one of those 5 players is extremely remote.

So unless a minor miracle occurs, I see us either using #23 on one of those 21-60 players, or trading the pick - either trading back, trading into 2010, or trading for a player.

Very much how I view round one, the value, and the Pats options. Actually -- almost word for word.

 

[dryheat44]

Very much how I view round one, the value, and the Pats options. Actually -- almost word for word.

Me too. I don't think the Patriots have an 11-20 board. Myself, and I'm not a Pro Scout, I have a total of 8 players that are first round values for the Pats, and another 7 that are on the 1/2 fence. If we draft at 23, we're almost certainly going to be "reaching" for someone. I mean, ideally I'd trade 23 back to maybe 28 and pick up a 1st or 2nd in 2010, but unless the mind-bogglingly weird happens at the draft, like Curry getting caught with four hookers and a dump truck full of blow, we'll be reaching, whether it be for Barwin, Beatty, Sintim, Smith or Butler. So that's where the drop-off rule comes into effect. Belichick might have Butler and Smith; Sintim and Barwin all grouped together as early-second round picks. He might gamble that he might be able to pluck one of the OLBs at #34, but thinks that both CBs will be gone, and his next favorite CB is a steep downgrade. Therefore, he should draft his preference of Smith or Butler.


Here's the logic I'm talking about.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...-combine-draft-game-youre-gm.html#post1306391

 

[MetalBleachers]

Sintim.

He's started in what essentially is BB's defensive system for the last three years and thrived. That doesn't include two years spent learning and absorbing it. Barwin might turn into a better player down the road, but Sintim has the smallest learning curve of any OLB prospect in the draft and that makes him an immediate asset.

I think you're right, but I also think the Pats will look at a grading curve for players. If Sintim can contribute right away but will stay at the same level, do they take him over a guy like Barwin who a) is more athletic and b) has a proven ability to adapt (hoops, TE, DE).

In other words, who will be a better player in three years, Sintim or Barwin? Based on his track record, I'd say Barwin. But, if you're thinking about putting Sintim in the middle to take advantage of his size and knowledge of the system, now you're talking.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

Me too. I don't think the Patriots have an 11-20 board. Myself, and I'm not a Pro Scout, I have a total of 8 players that are first round values for the Pats, and another 7 that are on the 1/2 fence. If we draft at 23, we're almost certainly going to be "reaching" for someone. I mean, ideally I'd trade 23 back to maybe 28 and pick up a 1st or 2nd in 2010, but unless the mind-bogglingly weird happens at the draft, like Curry getting caught with four hookers and a dump truck full of blow, we'll be reaching, whether it be for Barwin, Beatty, Sintim, Smith or Butler. So that's where the drop-off rule comes into effect. Belichick might have Butler and Smith; Sintim and Barwin all grouped together as early-second round picks. He might gamble that he might be able to pluck one of the OLBs at #34, but thinks that both CBs will be gone, and his next favorite CB is a steep downgrade. Therefore, he should draft his preference of Smith or Butler.

Here's the logic I'm talking about.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...-combine-draft-game-youre-gm.html#post1306391

I like #23 but see exactly what you are talking about. Remember last year I thought that Mendenhall would be a lock for a Top 15 pick and he slid all the way to #23. The trade down scenario would work if nobody slips as we are targeting a a lot of guys between 20 - 40 as you mention above. The Eagles have two picks in that area as well so trading down with them to 28 may be in BB plans.

 

[PATSNUTme]

None of us know who the Patriots are targeting on draft day. Just going from what I have been able to learn and looking at the early consensus of rankings Barwin is a 2nd rounder. We have a pick a the top of the second round and in the middle, so why not use one of those on Barwin?

Matthews has been rising on most boards. He has a good upside and I'm looking at him to be around the 20th to 25th pick. He has all the things that you look for in a Patriots player. Actually I'm looking for him to play inside next to Mayo which would then give Guyton a shot outside.

Now Barwin is on my list as a 1st day pick right now. He does have a lot to learn but I like the player. Just when to pull the trigger is the debate. As of today, I don't think the Patriots need to use #23 on him.

 

[mayoclinic]

Very much how I view round one, the value, and the Pats options. Actually -- almost word for word.

Wow, high praise. Thanks.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Sintim.

He's started in what essentially is BB's defensive system for the last three years and thrived. That doesn't include two years spent learning and absorbing it. Barwin might turn into a better player down the road, but Sintim has the smallest learning curve of any OLB prospect in the draft and that makes him an immediate asset.

Isn't draft strategy fun!

Sintim answers those clammering for instant defensive contributor with a 3-4 "college" OLB. Lower learning curve, lower ceiling.

Moving Sintim inside shifts the equation. If you've determined ILB has a higher need and Sintim is a good SILB prospect, then you draft him earlier...but with more risk involved because you're betting he will be capable of moving inside, and Barwin will be there at a later pick (if you even want him).

Now, if you took Sintim, and Bill Parcells has his minions take Barwin, is there anyone else in the draft whom you think might come close to Barwin's potential? Only Cody Brown in my book, and he's carrying a lower overall score at the very end of the second/early third...a full round later. There are those who assure me Jasper Brinkley is the answer at SILB, I'm not buying it, but he would be there later. We read speculation here about Guyton being capable of filling in at SILB, a possibility that only the coaches can answer before the draft. I think later round/UDFA options for SILB include Robert Francois and Dan Skuta, possibly Tyronne McKenzie and Frantz Joseph, I think Dan Shaughnessy is worth a try there, Cody Brown himself, Jason Williams, Lee Robinson, Victor Butler, Johnny Williams, Cody Glenn, Norris Slade, Scott McKillop, Josh Mauga, Brit Miller...there are lesser-valued options.

The drop-off from Barwin to Cody Brown appears to be one round, from Brown to the next best OLB prospect - probably Larry English who should be moved inside - doesn't work because English is ranked higher by other teams.

The drop-off from Sintim to Jasper Brinkley, as SILBs, isn't that great - I have the same questions about both when it comes to instinct for playing the run inside. Sintim grades higher because he can already backstop outside, but he's still a project.

Woods, Crable, Redd, and Craig all seem to be good OLB prospects. Crable has a slightly faster 40 and ten yard split over Barwin, but Barwin is more agile, and has proven to be stronger on Special Teams at the college level and is still a TE option.

Guyton and Mayo are promising inside, Ruud has had a full year to bulk up and get ready to contribute inside, I also think Craig can slide inside...and maybe Woods will follow the Bruschi trail inside someday. Is Sintim the answer here?

Barwin and Sintim will both contribute in other ways, they are my #1 OLB and #1 ILB prospects...I still draft the higher ceiling at #23, Barwin before Sintim.

And Nut still has us chasing an undersized 4-3 OLB who grades out no higher than the late second as a 3-4 LB. **sigh** He was the same way about Patrick Willis - he likes the flashy, shiney things.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I've seen Sintim and Matthews proposed at #23, whom else do people rank as players with better upside than Barwin, either as immediate contributors or with higher ceilings?

 

[PATSNUTme]

I've seen Sintim and Matthews proposed at #23, whom else do people rank as players with better upside than Barwin, either as immediate contributors or with higher ceilings?
And Nut still has us chasing an undersized 4-3 OLB who grades out no higher than the late second as a 3-4 LB. **sigh** He was the same way about Patrick Willis - he likes the flashy, shiney things.

Yes I do. I was not hot about Rivers last year. I'm not hot about Cushing this year. But I do like Matthews and he has risen.

Now let's say that they go with Mattews at 23 and Barwin is on hteir list and they now think he's going ot be taken from 28-32. they have the ammo to go after him at 27.

I would be happy with a day one draft that looks like this.

Matthews
Barwin
S.Smith
OT, CB from Ore, or another OLB

BTW the more I read about A. Smith the less I like of him.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

BTW the more I read about A. Smith the less I like of him.

An argument against teaching "nuts" to read. :ugh:

 

[patchick]

The more I look at this draft, the more I love pick #34. As others have said, if the Pats had gotten, say, #19 from the Bucs, we'd likely be talking about a lot of the same players.

So at #23, I think strategy is the name of the game. The two positions that I could see bumping somebody like Barwin out of consideration are OT & DE, presumably in the forms of Beatty & Jackson. Those are valuable, hard-to-fill positions where the field gets very thin after 23. Otherwise, I see Barwin as the rarest body type at a position of need and so my current default #1.

For those who prefer Matthews -- and I know Nut isn't the only one -- I'd love to hear the arguments in his favor. From where I sit Barwin looks bigger, somewhat more productive, somewhat more athletic, and not nearly as maxed-out physically.

 

[mayoclinic]

Yes I do. I was not hot about Rivers last year. I'm not hot about Cushing this year. But I do like Matthews and he has risen.

Now let's say that they go with Mattews at 23 and Barwin is on hteir list and they now think he's going ot be taken from 28-32. they have the ammo to go after him at 27.

I would be happy with a day one draft that looks like this.

Matthews
Barwin
S.Smith
OT, CB from Ore, or another OLB

BTW the more I read about A. Smith the less I like of him.

Glad to hear you weren't hot on Rivers and aren't hot on Cushing. I forgot to put Cushing on my list of 11-20 players that I wouldn't want for the Pats. BTW, going after Barwin at #27 probably doesn't help, as the 2 teams after #23 who would likely consider him in the 1st round are Miami at #25 and Baltimore at #26.

I like Matthews too, but I like him better as a player than I do for the Pats. My big concerns are:

- He's really no more proven than Barwin, with only one year of starting experience, and less athleticism, versatility and upside
- His frame may be maxed out around 240 lbs., on the small side. He's gained 60 lbs. in college, and I'm not sure I see him getting bigger.
- He may not be physical enough to move inside to SILB, or to handle the edge in the Pats' scheme

All of those things would make me take Barwin over Matthews without hesitation. I also agree with Patchick about not taking LBs consecutively at #23 and #34.

There are 3 players with unteachable athleticism and very high ceilings who I like a lot in this draft:

- Connor Barwin, LB. Plenty written about him as potentially a hybrid between DeMarcus Ware and "the next Mike Vrabel".
- Sean Smith, CB/S. Plenty written about him too. Unteachable size/agility, either at CB or FS. Could possibly be a bit more physical. If he had a touch of Louis Delmas in his personality he would be amazing.
- William Beatty, OT. Again, needs to get stronger and more physical, but you can't teach his kind of footwork and agility. I like him much better than Gosder Cherilous (#17 last year), Jeff Otah (#19), Sam Baker (#21) or Duane Brown (#26) last year.

So instead of your proposed 1st day, how about the following:

#23 - William Beatty, OT
#34 - Connor Barwin, LB
#47 - Sean Smith, CB/S (or Louis Delmas if Smith is gone)
#58 - one of the following: Clint Sintim/Larry English ILB; Jarron Gilbert DE; Alphonso Smith/Darius Butler/DJ Moore CB; William Moore/Patrick Chung S; Brian Robiskie WR; Alex Mack/Eric Wood OG/C.

 

[bakes781]

My top choice at #23 is Larry English

I think there's a good chance he could be gone and if so...

My top choices at #34 are Clay Matthews and Connor Barwin

 

[mayoclinic]

I've seen Sintim and Matthews proposed at #23, whom else do people rank as players with better upside than Barwin, either as immediate contributors or with higher ceilings?

I don't think there are many OLBs with higher ceilings than Barwin - certainly not Sintim or Matthews. Maybe Aaron Maybin, Michael Johnson or Everett Brown, but they have at least as much risk involved.

Larry English and Clint Sintim are the most obvious "immediate contributors", but, as you say, they may be best suited to SILB where there is more risk involved.

It all comes down to whether you want a low-floor "immediate contributor" or a high-ceiling guy with more risk and development time. I think the Pats have plugged most of their immediate holes, and I also think that rookies have a steep learning curve in BB's system anyway, so I go for the high ceiling guys. But that's just me.

 

[mayoclinic]

The more I look at this draft, the more I love pick #34. As others have said, if the Pats had gotten, say, #19 from the Bucs, we'd likely be talking about a lot of the same players.

So at #23, I think strategy is the name of the game. The two positions that I could see bumping somebody like Barwin out of consideration are OT & DE, presumably in the forms of Beatty & Jackson. Those are valuable, hard-to-fill positions where the field gets very thin after 23. Otherwise, I see Barwin as the rarest body type at a position of need and so my current default #1.

For those who prefer Matthews -- and I know Nut isn't the only one -- I'd love to hear the arguments in his favor. From where I sit Barwin looks bigger, somewhat more productive, somewhat more athletic, and not nearly as maxed-out physically.

I think that's one reason BB allowed himself to get "robbed" at #34 - not much difference from #19 in terms of players available, and cheaper.

I see #23 being the big question, not #34, 47 or 58. There will be plenty of values to choose from at those picks. Much as I like Barwin and want him on the Pats, if we lose out on him between #23 and #34 then we will just have to "settle" for Sintim, English or Matthews - not the end of the world. Unless there is a run on a position - OLB, or CB - and we're worried about missing out altogether then I'm not sure I see the benefit of reaching.

I agree with you about DE and OL being hard to fill positions worth reaching for. I'm not a big Tyson Jackson fan and I don't see reaching for Jarron Gilbert at #23, so I'm not sure I see that one right now. Also, there are a lot of good 3-4 DE prospects in next year's draft (Arthur Davis, Vince Oghobasse, Namdukong Suh, etc.). OT is another matter, and if I had to pick right now then reaching for Beatty at #23 would make the most sense. Potential left OTs always rise in the draft.

I agree with you about Barwin being a rare type, which is why I have him at #34, followed by CB/S at #47. One of Alphonso Smith, Sean Smith, DJ Moore, Darius Butler, Louis Delmas, Patrick Chung and William Moore should be available there. #58 if totally open for me right now. I could also see us trading up in the 2nd round (probably more likely than trading up in the 1st round). #89 plus #58 would get us to around #43-44. #89 plus #47 would get us to around #33.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't think there are many OLBs with higher ceilings than Barwin - certainly not Sintim or Matthews. Maybe Aaron Maybin, Michael Johnson or Everett Brown, but they have at least as much risk involved.

Larry English and Clint Sintim are the most obvious "immediate contributors", but, as you say, they may be best suited to SILB where there is more risk involved.

It all comes down to whether you want a low-floor "immediate contributor" or a high-ceiling guy with more risk and development time. I think the Pats have plugged most of their immediate holes, and I also think that rookies have a steep learning curve in BB's system anyway, so I go for the high ceiling guys. But that's just me.

Don't limit yourself to OLB, I'm not.

 

[bakes781]

What would be sweet is if we've already filled our biggest needs at LB and DB with our 1st two picks and then get the Lions to take our 47th(430) pick in exchange for their 65th(265) and 82nd(180) picks in the 3rd round. We'd have the 1st pick of day two along with 3 other picks in that round if you include the comp pick.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The more I look at this draft, the more I love pick #34. As others have said, if the Pats had gotten, say, #19 from the Bucs, we'd likely be talking about a lot of the same players.

So at #23, I think strategy is the name of the game. The two positions that I could see bumping somebody like Barwin out of consideration are OT & DE, presumably in the forms of Beatty & Jackson. Those are valuable, hard-to-fill positions where the field gets very thin after 23. Otherwise, I see Barwin as the rarest body type at a position of need and so my current default #1.

For those who prefer Matthews -- and I know Nut isn't the only one -- I'd love to hear the arguments in his favor. From where I sit Barwin looks bigger, somewhat more productive, somewhat more athletic, and not nearly as maxed-out physically.

Okay, Beatty and Jackson are under consideration:

Beatty would appear to have the higher value as a LT. Do we need to replace Light? So far Dante and BB say no and I haven't seen any sign to suggest Light has slipped from seasons past. I think Light's replacement is on the roster at RT - sucks to be the haters! And I think Jamon Meredith and Augustus Parrish are close enough to Beatty to be competitive - much closer than Cody Brown is to Barwin. One final note, there is a caution flag on Beatty with some scouts wondering if he turned it on in 2008 just prior to his draft day...:confused2:

Jackson isn't a first round value for me, mid-second at best. I have Gilbert slightly ahead of him and I'm not convinced enough on Gilbert to take him over a Safety like Delmas or Chung.

Like you, Barwin is the default, there is just not enough horsepower in Beatty to move him...now if Light tears something in the offseason program before the draft, instant #23.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

My top choice at #23 is Larry English

I think there's a good chance he could be gone and if so...

My top choices at #34 are Clay Matthews and Connor Barwin

What upside does Larry offer at OLB over Barwin? Both are conversion projects, and unlike Barwin, Larry has been knuckle down for four years, Barwin was playing in space at TE and is more athletic and has better physical measurables. No contest in my book.

 

[PATSNUTme]

The more I look at this draft, the more I love pick #34. As others have said, if the Pats had gotten, say, #19 from the Bucs, we'd likely be talking about a lot of the same players.

So at #23, I think strategy is the name of the game. The two positions that I could see bumping somebody like Barwin out of consideration are OT & DE, presumably in the forms of Beatty & Jackson. Those are valuable, hard-to-fill positions where the field gets very thin after 23. Otherwise, I see Barwin as the rarest body type at a position of need and so my current default #1.

For those who prefer Matthews -- and I know Nut isn't the only one -- I'd love to hear the arguments in his favor. From where I sit Barwin looks bigger, somewhat more productive, somewhat more athletic, and not nearly as maxed-out physically.

OK, according to PFW, Matthews has not reached his full potential and does have a huge upside. He is very coachable and hard working and devoted to football. He can play any of the LB positions. at 6-3 and 240 he is big enough to play the ILB spot for the Patriots and big enough to play the OLB spot. He could easily add another 10 pounds on an NFL program. He has risen in most of the respectable draft sites list from mid second round to as high as 20th.

Barwin is more of a gamble. Yes, he does have the physcial tools but he has not mastered any position. Why is he still shown as a mid second to high 3rd on most of the respected draft sites?

Maybe he'll be like Mayo and rise steadily between now and draft day. Again, the premise of the thread was drafting Barwin at #23, if the draft was held today. No one has really said why they would take him at #23 when a consensus has him listed mid 2nd round at best.