How much is Cassel looking for?

[ctpatsfan77]

I ask because the numbers seem rather ridiculous, and they seem to be growing by the day:

Adam Schefter, 11/16: It will be similar to the six-year, $65 million contract that Green Bay recently awarded its quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

Peter King, 2/10: "He'll make about $11 million a year."

Peter King, 2/23: "And while I understand it's a millstone around Cassel that he'd require probably two fairly high picks plus an average of $14 million-ish a year in a contract, I still think I'd rather have Cassel as my quarterback of the future than, say, Matthew Stafford. And the money's not that much different."

Fox Sports, 2/25: "The general consensus is that Cassel wants about $75 million over five years, which includes $35 million in bonuses."

:wha:

 

[mayoclinic]

I ask because the numbers seem rather ridiculous, and they seem to be growing by the day:

Adam Schefter, 11/16: It will be similar to the six-year, $65 million contract that Green Bay recently awarded its quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

Peter King, 2/10: "He'll make about $11 million a year."

Peter King, 2/23: "And while I understand it's a millstone around Cassel that he'd require probably two fairly high picks plus an average of $14 million-ish a year in a contract, I still think I'd rather have Cassel as my quarterback of the future than, say, Matthew Stafford. And the money's not that much different."

Fox Sports, 2/25: "The general consensus is that Cassel wants about $75 million over five years, which includes $35 million in bonuses."

:wha:

I don't know how much he is looking for, but the Rodgers contract is a good benchmark. They both came out of the 2005 draft, had relatively little experience before the 2008 season, and put up fairly similar numbers (Rodgers actually put up better numbers: yards 4038 > 3693; TDs 28 > 21; rating 93.8 > 89.4; completion % 63.6 > 63.4). Green Bay extended Rodgers after about 7 games last season based on how he was doing. I believe $20M was guaranteed. Jacksonville gave David Garrard a somewhat similar deal (something like $60M/6 years with $20M guaranteed). Tony Romo got slightly less, but $30M guaranteed.

These are all reasonable ballparks for talented young QBs all of whom had one succesful season under their belts at the time they were given long term deals. I could see guaranteeing more money to Cassel right now (more like the $30M Romo got). But all of these $14M+ estimates seem to me ridiculous. If he is looking for that kind of money, I think the Pats will hae a hard time moving him.

 

[JoeSixPat]

If Cassel were a free agent I'd suspect that he'd have no problem getting a figure much higher than any of us would think (i.e. I think the $35 million in bonus $ is on the high side now)

But he's not a free agent - teams need to give up high draft pick(s) to get him - and while one might make a case that not having to pay a #3 rookie this year makes that a wash, for some lower 1st round picks, that might be a consideration for some teams, making a high salary/bonus structure plus the loss of a top draft pick too steep a price to pay.

The problem for the Patriots is that teams need to both satisfy their own need for a QB, the Patriots need for high pick(s) and Cassel's need for fair market value guaranteed money. That's not as simple an equation as it might sound - especially if Cassel decides to rule out Turd Teams where he might at best, never have success, and at worst, get killed.

Regardless of what some think about Cassel losing some negotiating ability having signed the tender, he's largely in the drivers seat, able to block any trade he doesn't like and having the luxury of collecting $15 million this season and probably just as much guaranteed money if he hits the market next year, when its unlikely the Patriots will choose to tender him at a $16 million price tag.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I'm thinking he will get around Aaron Rodgers money.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think he really just wants a hug.

 

[Seneschal2]

How much is Cassel looking for?

I can't give you a serious answer about the $$$ because I seriously doubt he's looking for a specific figure.

What I'm sure he wants is: the best opportunity to be a starter and not hold a clipboard for a long, long, time. And, a decent organization if he's in a position to choose. The $$$ is something he and his brothers dreamed about... and now one of them is about to rake it in. The figure doesn't really matter.

 

[mgteich]

I continue to be amazed with regard to how little money supposedly matters to posters. The figures do matter to Cassel and his agent and to his prospective team.

I can't give you a serious answer about the $$$ because I seriously doubt he's looking for a specific figure.

What I'm sure he wants is: the best opportunity to be a starter and not hold a clipboard for a long, long, time. And, a decent organization if he's in a position to choose. The $$$ is something he and his brothers dreamed about... and now one of them is about to rake it in. The figure doesn't really matter.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I continue to be amazed with regard to how little money supposedly matters to posters. The figures do matter to Cassel and his agent and to his prospective team.

Well, while it's naive to assume the average NFL player would really play for free, I think Matt has a lot more in common with his buddy and mentor than their California roots. Both are driven competitors who had to suffer playing behind bigger names and got labled as backups at best and didn't get drafted until most of the audience lost interest. They have goals that in addition to making money include proving their armchair critics wrong.

Coming off a breakout season what matters to Matt most is likely striking while the iron's hot and potentially capitalizing on his pipe dream situation (a Walmart candidate playing well for a team who lost the MVP in the first quarter of week 1) by landing a starting job with a team ASAP so he has a halfway decent shot at turning in the kind of followup season that will cement him as a potential $100M career earner.

At 26 even if he signs a 6 year deal he'd be in line for an extension in 4-5 years if he plays well and on the roster for at least 3 years which can span coaching regimes. Sit on the bench for $14M and he's set for life by most measures but less likely to achieve the ultimate earnings goal of a franchise QB. But he's willing to do that because he's a team player at heart and this is the only team he's ever known and the only one that ever gave him a shot at starting. In exchange for that and $14.6M guaranteed he's willing to do whatever the team wants within reason. He's pprobably not going to sign a long term deal for much less guaranteed money than someone like Rogers got, but I doubt he's gonna try to give Eli a run for his money. Although any team interested would be well served to get Cassel signed before Condon negotiates Forrest Gumps new deal that will likely top $16M AAV and $40M guaranteed...and impact the rookie QB deals done in 2009.

Remember too his agent gets 2% of $14.6M with nothing else guaranteed (he could wreck his career running the scout team here in 2009 or damage his stock in as little as 1 lackluster appearance in pre season or the regular season mopping up for Brady) or 3% of upwards of 4 or more times that...

Next season is an uncapped one and the Patriots could tag him again (or just tender him as an expensive RFA) or potentially worse for him they could let him walk (and what might the talking heads read into that) in a market where perhaps a couple of new flavors of the month have emerged as potential franchise QB's or a couple of more highly touted QB's have emerged in the opinion of the draft gurus than the two red flagged questionmarks available this season.

Matt can be a much wealthier version of Matt Schaub or a become a slightly wealthier version of Derek Anderson or Billy Volek. I think Matt will go to most anyone who wants him. And first and foremost that means compensating this team for the right to sign him to any deal within reason. QB's with real drive believe they can change any teams destiny and then reap their rewards.

Matt's handled himself to date in a manner that screams first and foremost I'm a guy willing to do what it takes to help my team win. Those guys don't generally get sidetracked over contractual bragging rights. Matt Ryan made it clear even to Tom Condon last season that while he wanted his money he wasn't going to make the kind of mistake guys like Lienart and Quinn made by holding out and opening the door for an alternative. Cassel is a genuinely smart guy, like Ryan and...Brady. He will do whatever it takes to be a starter in the NFL if the opportunity again presents itself, as it should, and he'll worry about the total dollars after he's earned them.

 

[Seneschal2]

I continue to be amazed with regard to how little money supposedly matters to posters.

Speaking for myself, you sir, are correct. I've spent over half of my life evaluating football talent, so the size of a football player's contract is not my preferred area of interest.

The figures do matter to Cassel and his agent and to his prospective team.

His agent and prospective team wasn't part of the question. As for Cassel, I stand by my initial post. This will be his first big contract...he's about to become a millionaire...I doubt his thoughts are focused on how many millions. He can deal with that issue when the time comes for him to re-up. But first things first -- he wants to know where he'll be the starting QB. And I really believe that's his focus at-this-time -- not how much.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

You make some excellent points, Mo, but there's one thing here that needs to be corrected.

At 26 even if he signs a 6 year deal he'd be in line for an extension in 4-5 years if he plays well and on the roster for at least 3 years which can span coaching regimes. Sit on the bench for $14M and he's set for life by most measures but less likely to achieve the ultimate earnings goal of a franchise QB. But he's willing to do that because he's a team player at heart and this is the only team he's ever known and the only one that ever gave him a shot at starting. In exchange for that and $14.6M guaranteed he's willing to do whatever the team wants within reason. He's pprobably not going to sign a long term deal for much less guaranteed money than someone like Rogers got, but I doubt he's gonna try to give Eli a run for his money. Although any team interested would be well served to get Cassel signed before Condon negotiates Forrest Gumps new deal that will likely top $16M AAV and $40M guaranteed...and impact the rookie QB deals done in 2009.

Yes, Cassel is loyal, and yes, the Patriots gave him a shot at starting, but to say that they're "the only one that ever gave him a shot" is misleading at best. If any other team had drafted Cassel--let alone drafted him at the level his talents merited--they would have been branded as idiots. Heck, he already had an agreement with Norm Chow to go to TEN as a UDFA after the draft was over.

 

[ScottieC]

Speaking for myself, you sir, are correct. I've spent over half of my life evaluating football talent, so the size of a football player's contract is not my preferred area of interest.

His agent and prospective team wasn't part of the question. As for Cassel, I stand by my initial post. This will be his first big contract...he's about to become a millionaire...I doubt his thoughts are focused on how many millions. He can deal with that issue when the time comes for him to re-up. But first things first -- he wants to know where he'll be the starting QB. And I really believe that's his focus at-this-time -- not how much.

Thanks for clearing that one up, I was starting to wonder.

 

[matt1073]

I see Cassel settle down for something like 30 mill over 4 years, with big bonus incentives of course. I dont see him crippling a team with his big contract.

 

[spacecrime]

Matt Ryan made it clear even to Tom Condon last season that while he wanted his money he wasn't going to make the kind of mistake guys like Lienart and Quinn made by holding out and opening the door for an alternative.

You can add Philip Rivers to that list. His career was delayed a couple year by holding out, while giving a Brees a second lease on a NFL career.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

You make some excellent points, Mo, but there's one thing here that needs to be corrected.



Yes, Cassel is loyal, and yes, the Patriots gave him a shot at starting, but to say that they're "the only one that ever gave him a shot" is misleading at best. If any other team had drafted Cassel--let alone drafted him at the level his talents merited--they would have been branded as idiots. Heck, he already had an agreement with Norm Chow to go to TEN as a UDFA after the draft was over.

It's not misleading at all, it's a fact. Norm Chow never had the jiuce to do anything for anyone during his brief tenure as an NFL OC in Tennessee. He was saddled with an aging McNair and supersub Volek in 2005, and then totally hamstrung with Young and of necessity veteran Kerry Collins by 2006 (due to the logical selection of Leinart he lobbied for being ignored by an owner who wanted a Texas star on his relocated roster), and gone back to college with his tail between his legs after 2007 as he took the fall for decisions always beyond his control. Had he managed to even get Matt a roster spot in 2005 he'd have remained a third stringer at best and been gone without a wimper with his mentor and his offense after 2007. At best he'd have been trying to catch on with someone else as camp fodder in 2008 and at worst he'd have been selling real estate in California in a recession... Unless Norm took him to UCLA with him and he'd have been a coaching assistant there.

Instead he's the best available QB with upside on the 2009 QB market with 15 starts and 11 wins on his resume and already financially secure beyond his wildest dreams over the last 8 years... Here he got support from day 1 (I bet he was stoked that day BB told the media he liked HIS QB from USC just fine), he got to bump a 4th round NFLE MVP off the roster as a rookie, he was the #2 QB on the roster for 3 seasons including starting his second season as the lone backup to a first ballot HOF'er, and despite an army of armchair critics he remained on the roster in 2008 which enabled him to be in position to take over a team led by the reigning league MVP and they didn't even bring in a veteran to cover their asses... That's balls to the wall, full on support the likes of which few #1 drafted QB's see.

These guys see how things unfold across the league every season. Matt knows that all things considered nobody but Belichick was going to give him a shot at that kind of progression let alone shot at starting 15 consecutive games and and in the playoffs had they made it and in the process giving him a shot at becoming an NFL franchise QB.

Bill's had this kids back since the day he drafted him. The kid isn't going to stab that guy in the back by sticking a monkey wrench in any plans Bill has for him going forward. That's why he signed the tag, said he would backup Brady if that is what the team needed (because that certainly has the potential to derail his personal fasttrack to long term NFL starter status), said it's Tom's team if he's healthy because he built it, and he didn't stomp his feet at being tagged or toot his own horn this offseason. He has learned that good things do come to those who wait (provided they never stop working at improving while they wait).

And I'm sure while he is bound to do what is best for this franchise, Bill is also mindful of what is best for this kid who stepped up and made him look like even more of a genius when Brady went down and the naysayers predictably started opining about who made whom genius in NE...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Instead he's the best available QB with upside on the 2009 QB market with 15 starts and 11 wins on his resume and already financially secure beyond his wildest dreams over the last 8 years...

I will say that there probably wasn't anywhere else he'd have as good a chance of that happening, but, for all we know, he could have ended up filling in for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati this season (Palmer was lobbying for Cassel to sign with the Bengals as a UDFA, too).

That said, I'm not trying to cast aspersions on anyone here. My point is simply that we can't say they were the only team willing to give him a chance. I think we can both agree, though, that the Patriots certainly saw more in Cassel than anyone else, and always had faith in his abilities (see: 2006 season).

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I will say that there probably wasn't anywhere else he'd have as good a chance of that happening, but, for all we know, he could have ended up filling in for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati this season (Palmer was lobbying for Cassel to sign with the Bengals as a UDFA, too).

That said, I'm not trying to cast aspersions on anyone here. My point is simply that we can't say they were the only team willing to give him a chance. I think we can both agree, though, that the Patriots certainly saw more in Cassel than anyone else, and always had faith in his abilities (see: 2006 season).

But they didn't. And even if they had what good would it have done him. Had they inserted him in that playoff game couple of years back he'd have a playoff loss on his resume. Since then that team has become so dysfunctional even a healthy Palmer can't win with them.

As the old saying goes, talk is cheap. NE is the only franchise that was willing to invest anything in Matt Cassel. And one of the few if any stable and secure enough to develop him as seamlessly and provide him with a sound foundation from which to continue to perform. And as a result both the team and the player have gotten an exceptional return on that investment.

Someone else can be the ongoing beneficiary of that development, or have a second chance at landing Cassel, but only if they have the stones to trade a draft pick or picks for the opportunity. Several teams would supposedly sign him to a lucrative deal as a FA, or so we're told. Absent that they reportedly would prefer to invest their top draft picks in...college rookies looking for $30M in guarantees or take a shot at the flotsum and jetsum available in the 2nd round and beyond in what for a year now has been projected to be an incredibly weak draft for the QB position. Down the road they can point out that they too would have taken Matt if they could have had him absent draft picks, but the fact will remain they were simply too stupid to realize that if he represented sufficient value to justify the contract or roster spot, he also represented sufficient value to justify the pick or the picks in question. 7th or 2nd or 1st.