PREDICTION: Combine Risers

[upstater1]

Pick three combine risers whose athletic skill set will cause scouts to rate them higher. The combines will elevate these players at least a round higher if not more.

My three:

Chirs Baker, DE/DT, Hampton: He's under the radar a little bit, but few DEs in the draft possess the size/speed combination that he does. He's at Hampton because he's gotten into two fights in his college career, but he was a really good player--even though his head is a question. If he can interview well at the combine (wonderlic?) then people may give him the benefit of the doubt. Now that many teams are going to a 3-4, this kid has Ty Warren size and speed, a good 3-4 end. What does he have to gain from the combine? Show that he's a reputable human being who made bad decisions in the past.

Donald Brown, RB, UConn: Right now he's considered a talented natural runner because of his unbelievable balance and vision. But the knock on him is his size (210 pounds) and his speed (he is thought NOT to have a high gear). At the combine he will show two things: tremendous lower body strength (there's a Youtube video of him squatting ungodly weight) and speed to match all the top end RBs. He's as fast as LeSean McCoy.

Domonique Johnson, CB, Jackson State: I've read a little bit on him, and obviously coming from the playoff subdivision, it's hard to really scout how he plays. Some say he has really good flexibility and poise. But I'm predicting his rise simply because he will be the fastest defensive back out there. Last year Tyvon Branch rose quickly up the ranks when he beat all comers in the 40. Johnson is this year's Branch. Some teams just can't stay away from speed.

 

[mayoclinic]

1. Aaron Maybin, DE/LB Penn St. Expect he will have bulked up to near 250 and that his speed and agility will be impressive. Could go top 15 if he blows away the combine despite inexperience and needing to grow into his frame.
2. Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina. Predict he will be the fastest TE in the draft and that his athletic potential will make him a 2nd round pick at least, similar to Dustin Keller.
3. Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. His size/speed ratio will have teams drooling despite his relative lack of productivity.

 

[upstater1]

Well, toot my own horn, I think I'm one for one on my predictions.

I predicted that Donald Brown would show excellent athleticism at the combine. The knock on him was that he was a really good running back, but he lacked athleticism. Then he went out and outperformed the top RBs, and had the most balanced numbers of any back when you combine all the drills (speed in the 40, shuttle runs, vertical jump, broad jump, etc.)

I think my prediction that he would move up from the 3rd/4th round into the second round will now come true. And, I would not be surprised at all to see him jump ahead of Moreno and Wells to be the first RB taken. Now, I'm not so worried about Wells' speed because he's a big guy and he ran pretty decently at 4.59. That being said, the knock on him is that he appeared to be very stiff in the cone drills, and just didn't have much bend, which may explain some of his subpar performances on the field. Moreno for a back that weighs 215 needs to run better than the 4.6s. I say he drops. Shonn Greene, 4.7s. He drops. McCoy weighed in at 195, and then he didn't run because of the flu. Donald Brown was picked as the 5th best RB. You can argue he's 1st now, maybe second behind Wells (who I honestly wouldn't touch now with the concerns).


Oklahoma DT McCoy to return provided by NFL Draft 101 - Your home for hard hitting NFL Draft coverage.

NFL combine: Speed thrills for all but Beanie Wells -- chicagotribune.com

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Well, toot my own horn, I think I'm one for one on my predictions.

I predicted that Donald Brown would show excellent athleticism at the combine. The knock on him was that he was a really good running back, but he lacked athleticism. Then he went out and outperformed the top RBs, and had the most balanced numbers of any back when you combine all the drills (speed in the 40, shuttle runs, vertical jump, broad jump, etc.)

I think my prediction that he would move up from the 3rd/4th round into the second round will now come true. And, I would not be surprised at all to see him jump ahead of Moreno and Wells to be the first RB taken. Now, I'm not so worried about Wells' speed because he's a big guy and he ran pretty decently at 4.59. That being said, the knock on him is that he appeared to be very stiff in the cone drills, and just didn't have much bend, which may explain some of his subpar performances on the field. Moreno for a back that weighs 215 needs to run better than the 4.6s. I say he drops. Shonn Greene, 4.7s. He drops. McCoy weighed in at 195, and then he didn't run because of the flu. Donald Brown was picked as the 5th best RB. You can argue he's 1st now, maybe second behind Wells (who I honestly wouldn't touch now with the concerns).


Oklahoma DT McCoy to return provided by NFL Draft 101 - Your home for hard hitting NFL Draft coverage.

NFL combine: Speed thrills for all but Beanie Wells -- chicagotribune.com

Reportedly, the knock on him isn't his size/speed/quickness, but his Head Coach's reputation for productive RBs who don't translate to the NFL. I like the kid myownself, though I'd rather go WR for skill position on Day One.

 

[mayoclinic]

1. Aaron Maybin, DE/LB Penn St. Expect he will have bulked up to near 250 and that his speed and agility will be impressive. Could go top 15 if he blows away the combine despite inexperience and needing to grow into his frame.
2. Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina. Predict he will be the fastest TE in the draft and that his athletic potential will make him a 2nd round pick at least, similar to Dustin Keller.
3. Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. His size/speed ratio will have teams drooling despite his relative lack of productivity.

Well, if we're horn tooting I would have to say that so far DHB and Jared Cook are clearly big winners so far. We'll see if Aaron Maybin completes the trifecta. He weighed in at 6'4" 249#, which already makes him a riser in my book.

Since we're done with the offense, I'll up the ante and add 2 more defensive players as likely risers to go along with Maybin:

1. Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn St. Weighed in at 6'4", 249#, which

 

[mayoclinic]

Sorry, hit the send key by mistake.

2 new risers (in addition to Aaron Maybin).

1. Jarron Gilbert, DE/DT, San Jose St. Weighed in at 6'5" 288#. I predict 30+ reps at 225, a 38+ inch verticle and 10+' broad jump based on his pool video, and a 4.85 40, which could push him past Tyson Jackson as the #1 3-4 DE and just behind BJ Raji and Peria Jerry as a DT prospect.

2. Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois. Weighed in at 5'11" 203#. I expect he will be the defensive DHB, putting up around a 4.35 40 and other spectacular numbers to show off his athleticism, and become a top-15 pick (possibly #14 to NO or #15 to Houston), and even possibly leapfrogging Malcolm Jenkins as the top CB if Jenkins runs slower than expected.

Other possible risers to watch:

- Michael Johnson, DE/LB, Georgia Tech. Weighed in at 6'7" 266#, and will probably put his athleticism on display.
- Coye Francies, CB, San Jose St. Weighed in at 6' 185#. If he runs a sub 4.45 40 and looks good in drills, he could jump up to the late 1st round, possibly to a team like Miami, Baltimore or Tennessee.
- Everett Brown, DE/LB, Florida St. Weighed in at 6'3" 256#, and could cement himself as a top 10 (possibly top 5) selection.
- Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan. Weighed in a bit heavier than expected at 5'11" 202#. If he works out well, he will draw comparisons to Meriweather and possibly crack the late 1st round.

And of course, I'm eager to see how Sean Smith and Connor Barwin do, though I hope they won't look too good and price themselves up for us.

 

[upstater1]

Reportedly, the knock on him isn't his size/speed/quickness, but his Head Coach's reputation for productive RBs who don't translate to the NFL. I like the kid myownself, though I'd rather go WR for skill position on Day One.

Who ever wrote that knows very little about Big East football.

His head coach is Randy Edsall. Before Brown, they had one productive RB. UConn is new to college football. Terry Caulley--known as Mighty Mouse--because of his 5'6" size, was productive in college. Then he tore up his knee. He's now tearing up the CFL.

If that's what the analyst was going on, what can I say?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Who ever wrote that knows very little about Big East football.

His head coach is Randy Edsall. Before Brown, they had one productive RB. UConn is new to college football. Terry Caulley--known as Mighty Mouse--because of his 5'6" size, was productive in college. Then he tore up his knee. He's now tearing up the CFL.

If that's what the analyst was going on, what can I say?

Beats me where they get some of their stuff, I'm fairly sure I heard this listening to NFL Network. I was trying to think of what prominent UConn RBs they could be talking about, I know I'd never heard of Edsall before he put UConn on the map. Brown would look great in a NE uniform, but then I wanted Ray Rice last year (mostly because I thought he'd develop well in Faulk's 3rd down role). This year, I'm not seeing a major need for RB; Maroney will be healthy and feeling frisky, Morris is good for one more year of part-time use, Faulk is good for another year, B-Jeepers can take over the Lamont Jordan duties, which basically leaves a late round/UDFA target for NE. I like Ian Johnson for that, though his Combine may have put him back in people's map.

 

[upstater1]

Beats me where they get some of their stuff, I'm fairly sure I heard this listening to NFL Network. I was trying to think of what prominent UConn RBs they could be talking about, I know I'd never heard of Edsall before he put UConn on the map. Brown would look great in a NE uniform, but then I wanted Ray Rice last year (mostly because I thought he'd develop well in Faulk's 3rd down role). This year, I'm not seeing a major need for RB; Maroney will be healthy and feeling frisky, Morris is good for one more year of part-time use, Faulk is good for another year, B-Jeepers can take over the Lamont Jordan duties, which basically leaves a late round/UDFA target for NE. I like Ian Johnson for that, though his Combine may have put him back in people's map.

Agree with everything you wrote. I'm not touting Brown for the Patriots... unless he falls to the third round.

Edsall was a DB coach in the NFL before picking up with UConn.

 

[Synovia]

Now, I'm not so worried about Wells' speed because he's a big guy and he ran pretty decently at 4.59.

FWIW, Football outsiders say this is the worst year in a while for RB Speed Scores (combination of weight and 40 time), and there were only 2 players that came close to the average for first round RBs. Wells and (I can't remember the other guy).


I'm thinking that the track in the Luke is slower than the old track.

 

[upstater1]

FWIW, Football outsiders say this is the worst year in a while for RB Speed Scores (combination of weight and 40 time), and there were only 2 players that came close to the average for first round RBs. Wells and (I can't remember the other guy).


I'm thinking that the track in the Luke is slower than the old track.

I definitely believe it's slower, without a doubt.

Though I don't know why anyone said only Wells came closest to the first round scores from last year. A lot of RBs finished ahead of Wells this year.

 

[WhiZa]

I'm going to throw out there: Lydon Murtha OT Nebraska

He ran the fastest 40 and 3cone of the OL and top 5 in the jumping drills. Being 6-7 306 he certainly has the size for OT. He has be injury plagued most of his career so to put up those athletic numbers like that should definitly get him drafted. He is worth a flyer.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Risers based on athleticism: Connor Barwin, Jared Cook, Darrius Heywood Bey

 

[WhiZa]

Another RB who is looks good is Cedric Peerman. Best 40 time, top 5 225 and vert jump. He has speed and strength. His downfall is injuries and ball security issues. With his athletic ability he is at least a good Special Teamer and with potential to improve in the running game

 

[Synovia]

I definitely believe it's slower, without a doubt.

Though I don't know why anyone said only Wells came closest to the first round scores from last year. A lot of RBs finished ahead of Wells this year.

Speed score is based on Speed and WEIGHT. Nobody who was faster than Wells is nearly as big.


Speed score is basically a measure of momentum, and seems to correlate well with NFL success.

Speed Score: A method for projecting the NFL success of a rookie running back which combines a player's weight with his 40-yard dash time from the NFL scouting combine, thus accounting for the fact that a larger back is more likely to be a good NFL player than a small back with the same speed. Speed Scores generally range from 80 to 120, with 100 as the average.

The only guys this year over 110 are Wells and Peerman. Usual first round average is 112.





To note, I'm pretty sure that the new stadium is using electronic timing instead of the old hand timing.

 

[upstater1]

Speed score is based on Speed and WEIGHT. Nobody who was faster than Wells is nearly as big.


Speed score is basically a measure of momentum, and seems to correlate well with NFL success.



The only guys this year over 110 are Wells and Peerman. Usual first round average is 112.

The NFL network guys just said that the 40 times are not fully electronic. Apparently, the ending is electronic, but the start is triggered by a human being. Do the WRs have the same trigger guy as the RBs?

Last year, there were more 4.3 RBs than all of the previous decade combined.

People will have a very hard time convincing me that all of these 40s are on the up and up.

 

[Synovia]

The NFL network guys just said that the 40 times are not fully electronic. Apparently, the ending is electronic, but the start is triggered by a human being. Do the WRs have the same trigger guy as the RBs?

Last year, there were more 4.3 RBs than all of the previous decade combined.

People will have a very hard time convincing me that all of these 40s are on the up and up.

I dunno. Last year (and previous years) the timers were hand held at both ends. They were supposed to do away with that this year.


I don't know why they don't go to stardard track style timing... and you know, get accurate times.

 

[WhiZa]

I dunno. Last year (and previous years) the timers were hand held at both ends. They were supposed to do away with that this year.


I don't know why they don't go to stardard track style timing... and you know, get accurate times.

Then they couldn't manipulate the rules, but they would never do that.

 

[Synovia]

Then they couldn't manipulate the rules, but they would never do that.

I don;t see why they'd want to manipulate things... I would think that teams as a whole would want the most accurate timing possible. Often later round picks are made on guys who you didnt get to time yourself.