How LIKELY is Cassel to stay/go?

[ctpatsfan77]

In the past, I've been asking what will happen. While I'll probably have at least one more of those polls (probably right before FA begins), I figured this question is different enough to be worth asking.

Basically--how likely is it that Cassel will be on the roster next year? Are you confident you know what's going to happen, a bit hesitant, or do you have no friggin' clue? Personally, I think it's more likely he goes than he stays, but I'm not willing to put my money where my mouth is.

 

[billdog3484]

its amazing how nobody knows and how much each of all of our opinions vary so greatly. its probably not possible for anybody to know the answer because a lot of factors which we cannot control are at work.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

its amazing how nobody knows and how much each of all of our opinions vary so greatly. its probably not possible for anybody to know the answer because a lot of factors which we cannot control are at work.

You're right; there is no way to answer the probability question--either he will be traded, or he won't.

But it's interesting to see who's certain and who's undecided.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

With a BB led team, we'll never know crap until he wants us to know..... i hate that, but oh well.

Im in the camp of 90% certain Cassel will be traded. Then again, what do i know, I originally wanted to trade Brady, and keep Drew,,,,,,,,I was young, and stupid

 

[Kdo5]

starred.

Anyways I'm pretty sure he'll be traded. It wouldn't make sense to keep him if Brady's good to go.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

The thing that would shock me the most is not that Cassel stays, but Cassel stays at 14.6 million.. If he stays he gets signed to a Pats freindly deal, which I could see happening.. KC , Minny and mabyee Chicago are the only trading partners right now.. SF right now says no, Det is a poor franchise that would rather have Dulpepper.. TB maybee, but they just signed luke mcnown.. Who knows,

 

[j00fek]

he gone ...

 

[patsfanofNC12]

90% certain he will be traded, could be wrong but I highly doubt I will be

 

[mayoclinic]

If the Pats get a reasonable offer for Cassel, he's gone. He would rather start, the Pats have a good relationship and would like to accomodate him, O'Connell should be a capable backup, and Brady's rehab seems to be going well. If they can get good value for him, he's gone.

But they're in no rush to trade him. I think they'd rather trade him sooner than later, so if someone ante's up a good offer they'll jump, but they won't be rushing to move him for a cheap offer quickly. QB demand will only increase.

This article from Vic Carucci at nfl.com (which I've posted elsewhere) has some good insights:

Patriots execute a sound plan by tagging QB Cassel

I do feel that if the Pats don't move Cassel right away they will try to sign him to a long term deal, which will give them more cap flexibility and give him security, and then try to trade him.

 

[BradyManny]

Personally, I think it's more likely he goes than he stays, but I'm not willing to put my money where my mouth is.

I am. I know GMs are trying to say they aren't interested, and the Pats are trying to say Cassel is here for 09 - but its all a game. There are teams out there who have the money and the draft picks to acquire his services and he is of value to those teams.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I do feel that if the Pats don't move Cassel right away they will try to sign him to a long term deal, which will give them more cap flexibility and give him security, and then try to trade him.

I see those as the two options; the one caveat, though, is that signing him to a long-term deal--as long as there's no new CBA--forecloses the option of trading him in 2009.

 

[mayoclinic]

I see those as the two options; the one caveat, though, is that signing him to a long-term deal--as long as there's no new CBA--forecloses the option of trading him in 2009.

The current CBA is in place through 2009, so why couldn't we trade him?

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I think that he will be traded either just before the draft or on draft day. I'm betting that he goes for a mid 1st rounder and a 2010 conditional pick. There are too many teams that need a QB, and only 2 maybe 3 starting QBs in the draft. Stafford is a pretty safe pick, while I think that Sanchez is a very risky pick. All the FA QBs on the market are close to the end of their career guys (Garcia, Warner, Collins) plus Leftwich. I think that Minnisota might be the perfect landing slot for Leftwich, I think that both Warner and Collins will re-sign (and the fact that they are both starting ahead of QBs drafted in the first round, also helps Cassel's chances).

That leaves the following teams with no true starting QB:
Detriot (unless you want to count Culpepper)
NY Jets (please start the season with Clemens!!)
KC
Chicago
Tampa Bay

And the following teams were Cassel would be a major upgrade from the current (not highly drafted/paid/expendable) starting QB:
Buffalo
Houston
Jacksonville
Washington

So I'm pretty sure that Brady is healthy, and that Cassel will be traded.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The current CBA is in place through 2009, so why couldn't we trade him?

The CBA is in place until 2010. The cap is only in place through 2009--and that's the problem. One of the poison pills in the CBA is that in the year before an uncapped year, dead money cannot be prorated into the uncapped years. So if the Pats were to sign Cassel to a long-term deal, which would almost certainly necessitate a large SB, they would have to absorb the entire cap hit in 2009 if they traded him.

 

[TruthSeeker]

The CBA is in place until 2010. The cap is only in place through 2009--and that's the problem. One of the poison pills in the CBA is that in the year before an uncapped year, dead money cannot be prorated into the uncapped years. So if the Pats were to sign Cassel to a long-term deal, which would almost certainly necessitate a large SB, they would have to absorb the entire cap hit in 2009 if they traded him.

Good thinking, but you need to think outside the box.

The Pats could sign him to a contract with a lot of future guaranteed money instead of a signing bonus. Guarantees the same thing but allows full tradability.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Good thinking, but you need to think outside the box.

The Pats could sign him to a contract with a lot of future guaranteed money instead of a signing bonus. Guarantees the same thing but allows full tradability.

(A) What would you suggest as a contract Cassel might sign?
(B) Remember these rules involving contracts signed this year:
* The 30% rule on salaries--for each $1M in 2009 salary, future salaries can increase by no more than $300K per year.
* Any money guaranteed beyond 2012 automatically counts against the 2009 cap.
* So does any 2010 roster/reporting bonus.

 

[supafly]

its amazing how nobody knows and how much each of all of our opinions vary so greatly. its probably not possible for anybody to know the answer because a lot of factors which we cannot control are at work.

This is probably the best answer here, it'll be a highly debated topic 'til the end--and we all have our reasons for our opinions.

One of the better things to remember here, is no matter what, it looks like our Pats will be just fine....no matter what. And that's the most important thing here, despite who starts. We are spoiled in this situation, it's almost like one of those highbrow problems--when people don't realize how lucky they kinda are just to have the problem. (ex: my mercedes has a flat tire)

We could be the Vikings, the Chiefs, the Lions, etc etc. So no matter what, I'm just gonna chill and look forward to the new yr of football

 

[BelizePats]

He was gone the the second we franchised him!
End of story!

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

He was gone the the second we franchised him!
End of story!

Absolutely agree. I've been saying this since the franchise idea was floated. They'll give him up for a bag of footballs if it comes to it.

 

[JoeSixPat]

You're right; there is no way to answer the probability question--either he will be traded, or he won't.

But it's interesting to see who's certain and who's undecided.

You need to factor in whether CASSEL accepts the trade and the deal too. Ulitmately his vote is the most important one. If there's not enough teams willing to give him the $25 million guaranteed he probably wants PLUS a top pick to the Patriots, Cassel's got a good fall back plan...

... specifically to collect $40 million guranteed over the next two years instead of just $25 million this year.