How much is Cassel worth?

[mgteich]

Let's presume that someone comes up with compensation to the patriots. What sort of contract should Cassel be willing to take. It goes without saying that guaranteed compensation for 2009 of at least $14.6M is a given.

The basic question is how much bonus and salary should Cassel require to extend the contract. There is a risk of injury and that he won't play wll, so there is certainly advantage in signing a long-term contract, but, IMHO, without a larger bonus. After all, the new team could simply cut him after the season.

To make the poll easier, I will presume a 4 year contract. I also assume no backending, just a normal an approximately 20% salary increase each year.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

To make the poll easier, I will presume a 4 year contract. I also assume no backending, just a normal an approximately 20% salary increase each year.

There can't be any, because of the impending end of the salary cap; salary increases are strictly limited to 30% of the 2009 salary (i.e., $5M in 2009 = max $1.5M rise each subsequent year).

 

[jmt57]

I figure Cassel will get about $30 million over 4 years.

He and his agent will want it to work out where he's guaranteed at least as much as his franchise tender, while still working within the parameters of the maximum increase in the uncapped years. They also don't want a contract that will be so high at the end that the team has no choice but to cut high in year 4. Perhaps something like an $8 mil signing bonus, with salaries of $4 mil, $5 mil, $6 mil, and $7 mil.

 

[Nestapats]

Cassel will probably get a bit more than what Derek Anderson got from the Browns, so i'm guessing like a 4 year 35 mil or something in that range...

 

[mgteich]

I didn't type fast enough to add the poll (5 minute limit), so let's just discuss it. A team would of course also need to compensate the patriots.

ASSUMPTION 1: 4 year contract
ASSUMPTION 2: 20% annual salary increase
ASSUMPTION 3: A minimum guaranteed 2009 compensation of more than $14.6M

SOME OPTIONS
1) $30M = $14M bonus and $3M salary (guaranteed in 2009) $6.50M cap hit
2) $36M = $20M bonus and $3M salary (guaranteed in 2009) $8.00M cap hit
3) $41M = $25M bonus and $3M salary (guaranteed in 2009) $9.25M cap hit
4) $36M = $14M bonus and $4M salary (guaranteed in 2009) $7.50M cap hit
5) $42M = $20M bonus and $4M salary (guaranteed in 2009) $9.00M cap hit
6) $47M = $25M bonus and $4M salary (guaranteed in 2009) $10.25M cap hit
7) higher
8) now that I see the numbers, no one would give a pick for Cassel

 

[nantucketguy]

good comparison with Anderson, but with the damand for QB's today by TB despite Mcwhatever, MN, Det, Jets, KC, maybe even SF...I think itll be about 4yr/$40M to lock him up.

 

[Rob0729]

Cassel should get about $9-10 million a year in my estimates. He may not be worth that, but that may be the going rate.

 

[BradyManny]

I've made my feelings on the matter clear.

If I'm the Patriots, I value him less. I'd value him as a good backup capable of starting, I'd pay him in the same manner we pay Jarvis Green - money thats in between starting and backup levels.

If I'm another team, I see him as a starting caliber QB, with question marks, but with high upside, and I pay him Aaron Rodgers type money.

 

[mgteich]

Why should Cassel accept anything less than $14.6M guaranteed for 2009? What you have him doing is to give the team the right to pay him $5M, $6M and $7M in year 2, 3 and 4. And for that team option, Cassel gives up $2.6M. I would think the 2009 compensation must be more than $14.6M.

I figure Cassel will get about $30 million over 4 years.

He and his agent will want it to work out where he's guaranteed at least as much as his franchise tender, while still working within the parameters of the maximum increase in the uncapped years. They also don't want a contract that will be so high at the end that the team has no choice but to cut high in year 4. Perhaps something like an $8 mil signing bonus, with salaries of $4 mil, $5 mil, $6 mil, and $7 mil.

 

[Rob0729]

I figure Cassel will get about $30 million over 4 years.

He and his agent will want it to work out where he's guaranteed at least as much as his franchise tender, while still working within the parameters of the maximum increase in the uncapped years. They also don't want a contract that will be so high at the end that the team has no choice but to cut high in year 4. Perhaps something like an $8 mil signing bonus, with salaries of $4 mil, $5 mil, $6 mil, and $7 mil.

I think $30 million will be around his guaranteed money. Not his total compensation. Look at the contracts being handed out to QBs and that isn't all that unreasonable guarantee money especially since a team is hoping he will be a franchise QB.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

Cassel will probably get a bit more than what Derek Anderson got from the Browns, so i'm guessing like a 4 year 35 mil or something in that range...

This is how I see it.

They both had one productive season in the NFL going into the contract. Anderson got 3 year 24 million dollar contract. Anderson deal contained $14.5 million in guarantees, including a $7 million signing bonus. Another $1 million is available through incentives based on Pro Bowls and performance. 2009: $1.45 million (+ $5 million roster bonus due in March), 2010: $7.45 million (+ $2 million roster bonus), 2011: Free Agent

I would agree with Nestapats with somewhere around 4 year 30-35 million with 16 mil in guaranteed money. Anderson was a pro-bowler though is another aspect of his deal.

Cleveland had two high priced and profiled QB's on their roster and look where it got them. Maybe we should learn from them

 

[nantucketguy]

Why should Cassel accept anything less than $14.6M guaranteed for 2009? What you have him doing is to give the team the right to pay him $5M, $6M and $7M in year 2, 3 and 4. And for that team option, Cassel gives up $2.6M. I would think the 2009 compensation must be more than $14.6M.

This is how I see it.

They both had one productive season in the NFL going into the contract. Anderson got 3 year 24 million dollar contract. Anderson deal contained $14.5 million in guarantees, including a $7 million signing bonus. Another $1 million is available through incentives based on Pro Bowls and performance. 2009: $1.45 million (+ $5 million roster bonus due in March), 2010: $7.45 million (+ $2 million roster bonus), 2011: Free Agent

I would agree with Nestapats with somewhere around 4 year 30-35 million with 16 mil in guaranteed money. Anderson was a pro-bowler though is another aspect of his deal.

Cleveland had two high priced and profiled QB's on their roster and look where it got them. Maybe we should learn from them

I agree, plus we need the cap room to fill our voids on defense.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with your analysis. If I were his agent, I would recommend taking as high a bonus as possible, instead of higher salaries. Cassel has hit the perfect storm. Obviously, he has already taken this view by signing the tag. Get the guaranteed money!

To put it another way, how many games do you think the Lions would have won with Cassel at QB last year? Cassel is quickly going to see how different it is to start over with a new team and new schemes.

Cassel should get about $9-10 million a year in my estimates. He may not be worth that, but that may be the going rate.

 

[nantucketguy]

yeah but hes better than any one coming outta college. So, those looking for a QB, he's worth the investment

 

[jmt57]

Why should Cassel accept anything less than $14.6M guaranteed for 2009? What you have him doing is to give the team the right to pay him $5M, $6M and $7M in year 2, 3 and 4. And for that team option, Cassel gives up $2.6M. I would think the 2009 compensation must be more than $14.6M.

True, so possibly move those numbers up a bit. I figure there's no way a team would cut him after just one year though. Technically not 'guaranteed' but he'd make close to $20 mil in two years.

I think $30 million will be around his guaranteed money. Not his total compensation. Look at the contracts being handed out to QBs and that isn't all that unreasonable guarantee money especially since a team is hoping he will be a franchise QB.

Just my opinion but I think $30 mil guaranteed is a bit high. Romo got $30 mil guaranteed and Schaub got $7 mil guaranteed. I would expect Cassel to get something about in the middle of those two.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

True, so possibly move those numbers up a bit. I figure there's no way a team would cut him after just one year though. Technically not 'guaranteed' but he'd make close to $20 mil in two years.


Just my opinion but I think $30 mil guaranteed is a bit high. Romo got $30 mil guaranteed and Schaub got $7 mil guaranteed. I would expect Cassel to get something about in the middle of those two.

Oh Jerry Jones kills me : Maybe Romo can win him a playoff game some time soon. I really see him getting traded and him signing a 5+ year contract with his new team with 20 million in guarantee's but this is a total guess on what I see on the market.

 

[mgteich]

I don't know what the right number is but Cassel know has $14.6M guaranteed, the question is how much to off him to sign a new contract. $30M guaranteed offers him $15.4M of guaranteed new money to sign. To put it another way, if Cassel accepted $14.6M guaranteed, he would be giving a free option for his services to the team. Obviously, he could simply wait a year and see how much he can get for 2010 and beyond rather than not getting any additional monies.

Just my opinion but I think $30 mil guaranteed is a bit high. Romo got $30 mil guaranteed and Schaub got $7 mil guaranteed. I would expect Cassel to get something about in the middle of those two.

 

[nantucketguy]

yeah but his stock wont be as high as a backup for another year. right now he has 14.65 guaranteed which is alot obviously, but with a new contract, that's 35-40M guaranteed. Plus a starting role that could land him another deal or extension. timing is everything. With the QB's coming out this year, its his time.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think anyone is saying that Cassel won't take $35M-$40M guaranteed. The question is whether he will be able to get it. I agree he should take what he can get.

yeah but his stock wont be as high as a backup for another year. right now he has 14.65 guaranteed which is alot obviously, but with a new contract, that's 35-40M guaranteed. Plus a starting role that could land him another deal or extension. timing is everything. With the QB's coming out this year, its his time.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Peter King, on SI.com today:

Since you don't think Matt Cassel will play for my Pats in 2009, where do you think he'll land and for what price?''

[. . .] I don't know where Cassel will land, but give me the week to have an educated guess. Read next Monday's column. He'll make about $11 million a year.