Could this possibly be Belichick's plan for Cassel?

[ctpatsfan77]

The key assumption is that Cassel really was serious when he said that if the Patriots franchise him, he'll be a Patriot in 2009 (i.e., the Patriots do not plan to trade him in 2009).

Signing bonus: $14.6M
2009 salary: $5M
2010 salary: $6.5M
2011 salary: $8M
2012 salary: $9.5M
4-year total: $43.6M

Here's why I think this might work, if they were serious:
(1) It gives Cassel more first-year money than the franchise tag (an extra $5M).
(2) If a new CBA restores the salary cap in 2010, the Patriots should be able to spread out the pain of the extra ~$11M in SB proration over two years, instead of one.
(3) If the salary cap goes away, a team would only have to cough up $25M over three years for Cassel.
(4) It doesn't completely solve the problem, but it does give the Pats an extra $5M or so in cap room, enough to resign three or four vets.

Thoughts?

 

[billdog3484]

id prefer to sign him for 2 years, but your deal would probably be the only type of 1+ year deal Cassel would be willing to sign. i have to think about whether or not i would be pleased with the deal, but at least it would give us a little more flexibility salary cap wise for this year

 

[Deus Irae]

To me, this seems like the more likely scenario:

 

[Brettlax3434]

i just dont understand why cassel would want to sign to be a four year backup when he could get the same money else where and be a starter.

 

[JoeSixPat]

The key assumption is that Cassel really was serious when he said that if the Patriots franchise him, he'll be a Patriot in 2009 (i.e., the Patriots do not plan to trade him in 2009).

Signing bonus: $14.6M
2009 salary: $5M
2010 salary: $6.5M
2011 salary: $8M
2012 salary: $9.5M
4-year total: $43.6M

Here's why I think this might work, if they were serious:
(1) It gives Cassel more first-year money than the franchise tag (an extra $5M).
(2) If a new CBA restores the salary cap in 2010, the Patriots should be able to spread out the pain of the extra ~$11M in SB proration over two years, instead of one.
(3) If the salary cap goes away, a team would only have to cough up $25M over three years for Cassel.
(4) It doesn't completely solve the problem, but it does give the Pats an extra $5M or so in cap room, enough to resign three or four vets.

Thoughts?

Is the assumption that Cassel isn't interested in starting?

I'm not sure that's a correct assumption. He can get $25 million guaranteed if he goes to another team. Yes - $20 million is better than $14.65 million - but its not as good as $25 million or more.

People seem to forget that Cassel holds the cards now - he can block any trade, take the $14.65 million this year and then go into the FA market next year where he could easilly make that $25 million or more - with more teams likely interested since he won't require a high draft pick as compensation

That's about $40 million over two seasons. About $14 million more than your first two seasons - and of course his 2010 - 2012 salaries are not guranteed.

My guess is that Cassel's interested in starting this season and if the money's right, and the team is right, he'd allow the trade to go through and not block it... and if its not he stays here.

I guess I look at this more as what Cassel wants since he holds most of the cards - and not Belichick. Belichick likely has a plan - whether Cassel goes along with it is another matter.

 

[Deus Irae]

Is the assumption that Cassel isn't interested in starting?

I'm not sure that's a correct assumption. He can get $25 million guaranteed if he goes to another team. Yes - $20 million is better than $14.65 million - but its not as good as $25 million or more.

People seem to forget that Cassel holds the cards now - he can block any trade, take the $14.65 million this year and then go into the FA market next year where he could easilly make that $25 million or more - with more teams likely interested since he won't require a high draft pick as compensation

That's about $40 million over two seasons. About $14 million more than your first two seasons - and of course his 2010 - 2012 salaries are not guranteed.

My guess is that Cassel's interested in starting this season and if the money's right, and the team is right, he'd allow the trade to go through and not block it... and if its not he stays here.

I guess I look at this more as what Cassel wants since he holds most of the cards - and not Belichick. Belichick likely has a plan - whether Cassel goes along with it is another matter.

Cassel does not hold the cards, and he can't block any trade.

 

[smg93]

Cassel does not hold the cards, and he can't block any trade.

I believe he can by not agreeing to a long term deal with the other club. Unless the trade was to another team just for this one year which I don't think another club would like, I think he does have quite a bit of leverage.

 

[BelichickFan]

I believe he can by not agreeing to a long term deal with the other club. Unless the trade was to another team just for this one year which I don't think another club would like, I think he does have quite a bit of leverage.

Absolute worst case ? Trade Cassel to, say, Minnesota for a 5th round pick. No brainer for Minnesota even if they don't know if they can re-sign him. And it still works for us, it gets the money off the books and lets us pick his destination. I'd prefer to get a 5th round pick from Minnesota than a 3rd round comp pick and have him playing for the Jets. We absolutely can trade him anywhere, we just wouldn't get that much for him; but by picking his destination we still win.

 

[Deus Irae]

I believe he can by not agreeing to a long term deal with the other club. Unless the trade was to another team just for this one year which I don't think another club would like, I think he does have quite a bit of leverage.

Cassel can't prevent any trade. What he can do is make the trade a pain in the ass by not agreeing to a contract. However, even if he did that, the Patriots could still trade him, and next year Cassel would still be a RFA, and stuck with the new team yet again. People putting forth the "It'd be too expensive" argument seem to forget that the Patriots and several other teams are carrying similar contracts already.

 

[swheeler23]

The key assumption is that Cassel really was serious when he said that if the Patriots franchise him, he'll be a Patriot in 2009 (i.e., the Patriots do not plan to trade him in 2009).

Signing bonus: $14.6M
2009 salary: $5M
2010 salary: $6.5M
2011 salary: $8M
2012 salary: $9.5M
4-year total: $43.6M

Here's why I think this might work, if they were serious:
(1) It gives Cassel more first-year money than the franchise tag (an extra $5M).
(2) If a new CBA restores the salary cap in 2010, the Patriots should be able to spread out the pain of the extra ~$11M in SB proration over two years, instead of one.
(3) If the salary cap goes away, a team would only have to cough up $25M over three years for Cassel.
(4) It doesn't completely solve the problem, but it does give the Pats an extra $5M or so in cap room, enough to resign three or four vets.

Thoughts?

So what do they do with Brady? These are starting qb numbers.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Is the assumption that Cassel isn't interested in starting?

I'm not sure that's a correct assumption. He can get $25 million guaranteed if he goes to another team. Yes - $20 million is better than $14.65 million - but its not as good as $25 million or more.

How do you know he can get that?

People seem to forget that Cassel holds the cards now - he can block any trade, take the $14.65 million this year and then go into the FA market next year where he could easilly make that $25 million or more - with more teams likely interested since he won't require a high draft pick as compensation

Only if there's a new CBA. As things stand right now, he'd be an RFA in 2010.

My guess is that Cassel's interested in starting this season and if the money's right, and the team is right, he'd allow the trade to go through and not block it... and if its not he stays here.

I'm not arguing that Cassel doesn't want to start. What I'm wondering (I'm not saying this will happen, only that I think something of the sort might) is whether or not Belichick was being coy in talking about "working with Matt in 2009." Maybe they feel he is too good to let go unless they literally have no other choice.

I guess I look at this more as what Cassel wants since he holds most of the cards - and not Belichick. Belichick likely has a plan - whether Cassel goes along with it is another matter.[/QUOTE]

 

[Fencer]

Cassel does not hold the cards, and he can't block any trade.

"Sabotage" would be a better word than "block".

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

A blast from the past that has nothing to do with ctpatsfan77's drug use, but looks like something fun to use later on this year when they come out with new rankings...

New Era Scouting Archive Scouting 101: NFL Quarterback Rankings

Tuesday, May 13th, 2008
Scouting 101: NFL Quarterback Rankings
by Matt Miller

Today we kick off our preseason look at every player in the NFL, like only New Era Scouting can, with the quarterbacks. Every NFL quarterback is ranked and graded.


Please note that the grades given are our own. Each player is ranked in order of who we would want as our starting quarterback for the 2008 NFL Season only. We have taken in to account age, production and potential in grading the players below. Only drafted rookies are listed.

1 Brady, Tom
47 Cassel, Matt
73 Gutierrez, Matt
95 O’Connell, Kevin

 

[AzPatsFan]

I'm glad that some fans are actually considering what mifht happpen if Cassel were to stay becasue Belichick wanted him in 2009. I just wanted that to be considered when everyyone was not even considering it and dismissing the possibility.

 

[fgssand]

So what do they do with Brady? These are starting qb numbers.

Easy:

1) Start Brady is what they do with him........

2) So what?

While I do not think it will happen - teams have carried two starting caliber QB's before and done very well. How often does one QB survive a season 100% healthy??

 

[fgssand]

I'm not arguing that Cassel doesn't want to start. What I'm wondering (I'm not saying this will happen, only that I think something of the sort might) is whether or not Belichick was being coy in talking about "working with Matt in 2009." Maybe they feel he is too good to let go unless they literally have no other choice.

I guess I look at this more as what Cassel wants since he holds most of the cards - and not Belichick. Belichick likely has a plan - whether Cassel goes along with it is another matter.

[/quote]

OK, BB is certainly smarter than all of us............maybe he he has every intention of keeping MC as TB's back up for years to come. Maybe MC is happy to stay here and be a part of greatness.

In the history of the NFL - two starting QB's have coexisted very well before....why not here?

With likelihood of an uncapped world ahead, that means sucking up the high salary for one year only. After that, sue to the poison pills in the CBA, the only players we most likely will be able to keep are our own anyway.

While I still think this is tag and trade all the way............maybe it is exactly what BB said it will be "looking forward to working with MC in 2009"?

 

[dhamz]

OK, BB is certainly smarter than all of us............maybe he he has every intention of keeping MC as TB's back up for years to come. Maybe MC is happy to stay here and be a part of greatness.

In the history of the NFL - two starting QB's have coexisted very well before....why not here?

The history of today's NFL really started with the salary cap and free agency. For example, Steve Young and Joe Montana were together because Young had no choice. He despised being Montana's back-up and would have left if he could have.

I don't recall a team keeping 2 starting QBs signed to big $ long term deals in the cap era which is what the initial poster is saying the plan will be.

Even if the Pats would do that, I doubt they would find a willing partner in that plan in Cassel. He has spent a decade sitting. I can't see him locking himself in long term to do it again when he can go elsewhere and play.

 

[Rob0729]

Is the assumption that Cassel isn't interested in starting?

I'm not sure that's a correct assumption. He can get $25 million guaranteed if he goes to another team. Yes - $20 million is better than $14.65 million - but its not as good as $25 million or more.

People seem to forget that Cassel holds the cards now - he can block any trade, take the $14.65 million this year and then go into the FA market next year where he could easilly make that $25 million or more - with more teams likely interested since he won't require a high draft pick as compensation

That's about $40 million over two seasons. About $14 million more than your first two seasons - and of course his 2010 - 2012 salaries are not guranteed.

My guess is that Cassel's interested in starting this season and if the money's right, and the team is right, he'd allow the trade to go through and not block it... and if its not he stays here.

I guess I look at this more as what Cassel wants since he holds most of the cards - and not Belichick. Belichick likely has a plan - whether Cassel goes along with it is another matter.

I still disagree with that. There is always a chance that there will be a team willing to gamble on Cassel with the one year franchise tender deal figuring they can always tender him next year and get a long term deal done.

I also don't know if the market for Cassel will be nearly as strong next year as it is this year. Who knows what the draft and free agent class will be next year. What if there is a 2009 version of Cassel (an unheralded back up who is thrusted into the starter position and plays great football).

Also, don't underestimate Cassel's desire to start and get even more security now. The worst of both worlds for Cassel would be that he stays with the Patriots and gets a season ending injury the first game

Cassel has a lot of leverage, but he doesn't hold all the cards. I can see a team that is a QB away from being a contender trading for Cassel without a long term deal in place and hope winning would convince Cassel to sign a long term deal. It isn't as crazy as it sounds since it minimizes the risk if Cassel is a bust and teams have shown they are willing to let franchise players play multiple years under the franchise tender (see Walter Jones and Orlando Pace) rather than get a long term deal in place. If Cassel really wants a long term deal and to start, his leverage diminishes quite a bit because if he becomes difficult the Pats can say they aren't trading him.

I think people are assuming too much that Cassel is more than happy to sit and wear a cap and hold a clipboard every Sunday and collect money. If he is the competitor I think he is, he wants to start somewhere and prove this past year wasn't a fluke and that he is a system QB. If that is his desire, his leverage isn't nearly as strong as you state because the Pats don't have to trade him if he blocks them from getting the best deal they can and they can just go through this process again next offseason where Cassel's leverage could be even less and his stock could have plummeted. Not the best option for the Patriots, but it isn't the best scenario for Cassel either.

 

[Rob0729]

The key assumption is that Cassel really was serious when he said that if the Patriots franchise him, he'll be a Patriot in 2009 (i.e., the Patriots do not plan to trade him in 2009).

Signing bonus: $14.6M
2009 salary: $5M
2010 salary: $6.5M
2011 salary: $8M
2012 salary: $9.5M
4-year total: $43.6M

Here's why I think this might work, if they were serious:
(1) It gives Cassel more first-year money than the franchise tag (an extra $5M).
(2) If a new CBA restores the salary cap in 2010, the Patriots should be able to spread out the pain of the extra ~$11M in SB proration over two years, instead of one.
(3) If the salary cap goes away, a team would only have to cough up $25M over three years for Cassel.
(4) It doesn't completely solve the problem, but it does give the Pats an extra $5M or so in cap room, enough to resign three or four vets.

Thoughts?

Don't hold your breath for a long term deal. Unless Brady looks to be on his way out, Cassel will not want to be locked up in a long term deal as a back up.

This isn't college where Cassel had to decide to either be Matt Leinhart's back up or go to another school, sit out of football a year because of the NCAA rules about changing schools, and then compete for the starting job on that team where there was no guarantees he would win that job. Cassel agreed to be a back up at USC because his other options weren't any better.

From everything that has been written or said about Cassel is that his demeanor is like Brady's - he is a confident, fierce competitor. Guys like that aren't usually willing to play a supporting role when they can be "The Guy" somewhere else. I can't see Cassel being satisfied with being a well compensated back up.

Also, I can't see Belichick tying up that much money in a back up QB. By paying Cassel that much, he has to sacrifice in other areas for the future. These other areas will affect the team every Sunday. I can't see that happening.

I fully expect Cassel to play somewhere else next year. That is what everyone wants. The only way I don't see this happening is if Brady is worse than recent reports are indicated and he will at least start the season on the PUP.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I still disagree with that. There is always a chance that there will be a team willing to gamble on Cassel with the one year franchise tender deal figuring they can always tender him next year and get a long term deal done.

I also don't know if the market for Cassel will be nearly as strong next year as it is this year. Who knows what the draft and free agent class will be next year. What if there is a 2009 version of Cassel (an unheralded back up who is thrusted into the starter position and plays great football).

Also, don't underestimate Cassel's desire to start and get even more security now. The worst of both worlds for Cassel would be that he stays with the Patriots and gets a season ending injury the first game

Cassel has a lot of leverage, but he doesn't hold all the cards. I can see a team that is a QB away from being a contender trading for Cassel without a long term deal in place and hope winning would convince Cassel to sign a long term deal. It isn't as crazy as it sounds since it minimizes the risk if Cassel is a bust and teams have shown they are willing to let franchise players play multiple years under the franchise tender (see Walter Jones and Orlando Pace) rather than get a long term deal in place. If Cassel really wants a long term deal and to start, his leverage diminishes quite a bit because if he becomes difficult the Pats can say they aren't trading him.

I think people are assuming too much that Cassel is more than happy to sit and wear a cap and hold a clipboard every Sunday and collect money. If he is the competitor I think he is, he wants to start somewhere and prove this past year wasn't a fluke and that he is a system QB. If that is his desire, his leverage isn't nearly as strong as you state because the Pats don't have to trade him if he blocks them from getting the best deal they can and they can just go through this process again next offseason where Cassel's leverage could be even less and his stock could have plummeted. Not the best option for the Patriots, but it isn't the best scenario for Cassel either.

Everyone says there's 9-10 teams in need of a QB as of right now.

I'm not quite sure who you see filling all those needs. Derek Anderson and 8 rookies?

Cassel himself (wisely) said that he expects Brady to be the starter ahead of him if he's still on the team. Would teams assume that Cassel no longer has the skills and abilities if Brady starts ahead of him? Do GMs really have such short memories?

There might not be 10 teams in need of a QB - but 5-7? I think so.

Don't forget - in all likelihood, if Cassel collects his $14.65 million this year and enters free agency next year, he might be MORE attractive to teams who might not be so eager to give the Patriots their top draft choice.

And as far as holding the cards, Cassel might not be able to shop himself currently, but we know that's a bit of a joke - his agent is likely still doing that. He holds the most important card - he can block any trade he wants and still collect nearly $15 million this year and likely much more than that next year.... for a two year total that could never come close to what he'd get in the first two years of a long-term deal this year.

I, like you, qualify this with the assumption that Cassel DOES want to start - but his signing of the tender tells me that he's not about to jeopardize his income in the process.