How much salary is Cassel actually worth to the Pats as a player?

[Fencer]

Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

Lets see he is traded for a 1st and 3rd.

So by my estimation:

(1st round Signing Bonus + Salary) + (3rd round Signing Bonus + Salary) = Cassel's worth/salary

I get it. You don't like the premise of this thread. I'm sorry for wasting all those pixels of yours.

 

[Metaphors]

Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

When have the Patriots done that to nearly the same magnitude in the past?

I don't think they'd find spending such a large fraction of their salary cap as a "Thank you" to somebody to be good business.

You keep cherry-picking parts of my posts. I've repeatedly said that the Pats certainly DON'T...DO NOT...NEGATORY...want to pay Cassel $15M to be a backup/insurance policy. If their better options don't pan out (trade, cap-friendly deal), the Pats have to eat the contract. That is assuming Cassel signs the tender and it would be a huge gamble not to.

If it gets to that point (and I don't think it will), it doesn't mean that Cassel is valued as a $15M QB by the Pats. It means they played the game and lost. In that case, the risk would have been worth it since they got playoff-caliber QB play in 2008 for a half mill instead of signing a vet to a multi-million dollar deal. That bill comes due in 2009.

Cassel played well and that makes him a valuable asset...and assets have a price to keep and hold. If the Pats were looking to acquire Cassel, would they value him at a guaranteed $15M for one year? No way. Would they value him at anything above what Cassel would consider an insult? Probably not. He is a short-term bridge until O'Connell is ready as the #2.

Cassel as a football player is worth significantly less to the Pats than Cassel as an asset. Is Cassel worth risking a $15M guaranteed one-year deal on the chance they could get significant value in trading him? Yepper. That is good business and they are doing it in a way that ensures Cassel is set for life, which seems fair given Cassel's development on and off the field.

 

[Fencer]

Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

I'll be honest, I have no earthly idea at the moment.

Well, my original post offers clues.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

In any case, unless Brady is expected to be out -- in which case trade talks are moot anyway -- Cassell's value to the Pats is a lot less than $14 million, so everybody knows they have an incentive to make a deal happen.

Interesting, but hypothetical, of course, for two reasons.

One, it isn't going to happen that way; he's either going to stay with the Pats under the tag or be traded.

Two, it leaves out the reality of the marketplace if Matt wasn't under the tag. Any employer can assess an employee's value six ways to Sunday, but in the end the value is determined by the market, or lack thereof, for his/her skills.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Underlying any other consideration of the Pats' negotiating position is this -- how many $ is Cassell worth to the Pats as a player?

Here's how I see it:

Case 1: Brady is out for the season (again). Then Cassell is the only player who could step into Brady's place and be a Really Good Starter. Based on how he performed in the latter part of the season, the value of that is somewhere around the true franchise tag amount.

Yes, I know it's high, but Cassell uniquely has knowledge of the Patriot system.

Case 2: Brady is healthy. Then the main value of a backup QB is as an insurance policy. What's the probability of a previously durable 30-something QB coming off an injury going down again? 20%? Cassell's value in this scenario is a few million dollars.

Case 3: Brady starts the season impaired. Then Cassell's value is somewhere inbetween.

Put numbers and probabilities on all three scenarios, and you have an expected value. E.g., if you think the probabilities are 10-60-30% (which is more optimistic for Brady than Tomase might put them at), and the numbers are $15-3-8 million, then that works out to a $5.7 million dollar value for Cassell the player in 2009. Shift the probabilities to 20-30-50%, and his value goes up to $7.9 million.

In any case, unless Brady is expected to be out -- in which case trade talks are moot anyway -- Cassell's value to the Pats is a lot less than $14 million, so everybody knows they have an incentive to make a deal happen.

Wrong question, so wrong answer.

Right question: What is the value and cost of a Lombardi Trophy?

Kraft has answered it and said it is "... to spend up the amount the league allows per year and not more. And remain competitive every year". So let them spend it.

Having an "insurance policy" for the most important position on a football team, for a legitimate Super Bowl FAVORITE, by Las Vegas, makes pure sense to me.

 

[crowell33]

“That bum. He was supposed to be coming. But, I think he’s going to be on a beach with Gisele (Bundchen) somewhere getting fed food,” Evans cracked. “I guess I can’t blame him. But he’s still a weasel.”...............Heath Evans

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Wrong question, so wrong answer.

Right question: What is the value and cost of a Lombardi Trophy?

Kraft has answered it and said it is "... to spend up the amount the league allows per year and not more. And remain competitive every year". So let them spend it.

Having an "insurance policy" for the most important position on a football team, for a legitimate Super Bowl FAVORITE, by Las Vegas, makes pure sense to me.

I've already said in another post why this is purely a hypothetical exercise. What the OP is asking, as far as I can tell, is how would one determine Cassel's theoretical value, absent a market that, in the real world, actually does determine that value (even the tag is based on a market basket of contemporary salaries at any given position). As far as I can see, that's a fair question to ask. It might not be particularly useful or have any practical implications whatsoever, but it's an interesting way to think about the salary subject in February, between the SB, Combines and Draft Day.

You raise another interesting question.

What is a Lombardi Trophy worth? I wonder if anyone has ever put a monetary value on a SB victory.

Teams get the bulk of their revenues from Broadcast rights, based on a contract that doesn't care whether a team is 16--0 or 0--16. The Steelers will get the same amount under the contract next year as they would have had they not gotten near to Tampa. There might be an uptick in Season Ticket sales among teams that are not already sold out (it would be interesting to see what happens in Arizona after the SB run), but I doubt that is that great. There might be an increase in promotional and ancillary sales, but that also is probably not that great.

The only real way to measure this would be in the increase in a Franchise's value after winning an SB. Anecdotally, the Patriots' franchise value has trebled or quadrupled since the Krafts bought the team. It would be an interesting Valuation exercise to try to attribute a portion of this increase to SB wins and not just to the overal inflation of all franchises due to the sport's popularity and mega Broadcast Contracts. I do, however, suspect that is real, but, since there is no public market for nearly all NFL teams, it's difficult to quantify beyond the annual Forbes stab at it.

If I look at the top five Franchises by Franchise Value and the last three SB Winners on the most recent Forbes list that I have (I doubt it changes that much and there are clearly other factors at play here, including Real Estate and Stadium values, but it's the best we've got before deeper analysis) and compare it to SB wins, this is what you see:

1) Redskins, Total SB Wins 3, last win 1991 season
2) Patriots, Total SB Wins 3, last win 2004
3) Cowboys, Total SB Wins 5, last win 1995
4) Texans, Total SB Wins 0, last win never
5) Eagles, Total SB wins 0, last win never

15) Giants, Total SB wins 3, last win 2007
18) Steelers, Total SB wins 6, last win 2008
22) Colts, Total SB wins 2, last win 2006

One can't just argue that a Lombardi is "priceless" and therefore worth any reasonable price to obtain one. Otherwise, owners would behave differently than they actually do. Clearly, teams take different views of this.

Some spend and manage themselves consistently to be competitive for the Playoffs year in and year out, like the Pats and Steelers and Cowboys and Colts and several others. The very fact that Bob Kraft feels the need to state that objective suggests that it is not a universally shared objective among NFL owners. Otherwise, saying that "We want our team to be highly competitive for the Playoffs year after year" would be the same as saying "Our team is going to play football."

Other teams, like the Vikings, Cards (until this year), Chiefs (in recent years during Mr. Hunt's illness) and others, seem to go for extended periods without particularly caring about the quality of the team that they field. They are content to field a respectable team but don't seem particularly driven to get to the Playoffs, let alone the SB. The Broadcast, Gate and Ancillary revenues seem to be enough for them year in and year out as an annuity without a lot of investment.

 

[Fencer]

Interesting, but hypothetical, of course, for two reasons.

One, it isn't going to happen that way; he's either going to stay with the Pats under the tag or be traded.

Two, it leaves out the reality of the marketplace if Matt wasn't under the tag. Any employer can assess an employee's value six ways to Sunday, but in the end the value is determined by the market, or lack thereof, for his/her skills.

You and other folks are misunderstanding me. Perhaps I should have included more steps to the line of reasoning.

1. The Pats, Cassel, and hopefully one or more other teams are or will be in a multi-way negotiation.

2. The outcome of a negotiation is heavily influenced by the consequences to each party of failure.

3. Therefore, it is interesting (to me, at least) to assess what the consequences to the Pats of failure are.

4. Failure involves Cassel staying for a known amount of money ($14 million+). The magnitude of the failure is the excess of that amount over his true value to the Pats.

5. Therefore, it is interesting (to me, at least) what his true value to the Pats is.

 

[Fencer]

Wrong question, so wrong answer.

Right question: What is the value and cost of a Lombardi Trophy?

Kraft has answered it and said it is "... to spend up the amount the league allows per year and not more. And remain competitive every year". So let them spend it.

Having an "insurance policy" for the most important position on a football team, for a legitimate Super Bowl FAVORITE, by Las Vegas, makes pure sense to me.

So you think ANY amount of money paid to Cassel -- as opposed to being paid to other players -- is money well spent? Would you think it is a good decision to pay him $50 million next year?

If not, what's the largest amount you do think it is a good decision to pay him?

 

[Fencer]

I've already said in another post why this is purely a hypothetical exercise. What the OP is asking, as far as I can tell, is how would one determine Cassel's theoretical value, absent a market that, in the real world, actually does determine that value (even the tag is based on a market basket of contemporary salaries at any given position). As far as I can see, that's a fair question to ask. It might not be particularly useful or have any practical implications whatsoever, but it's an interesting way to think about the salary subject in February, between the SB, Combines and Draft Day.

OK. Maybe you did understand me somewhat.

But my not entirely amateur view of negotiations is that it's a very relevant question to ask. The term for it, in negotiation theory, is "threat point."

 

[PatsFanSince74]

You and other folks are misunderstanding me. Perhaps I should have included more steps to the line of reasoning.

1. The Pats, Cassel, and hopefully one or more other teams are or will be in a multi-way negotiation.

2. The outcome of a negotiation is heavily influenced by the consequences to each party of failure.

3. Therefore, it is interesting (to me, at least) to assess what the consequences to the Pats of failure are.

4. Failure involves Cassel staying for a known amount of money ($14 million+). The magnitude of the failure is the excess of that amount over his true value to the Pats.

5. Therefore, it is interesting (to me, at least) what his true value to the Pats is.

I also read your comment a little further on. Thanks.

The flaw in your logic is that his "true value to the Pats" is what the market says they have to pay him, in the same sense that a house is "worth" what someone will pay for it under a reasonable purchase and sale scenario, even if the comparables say it should sell for more or less.

I will concede that the tag number, because it is not a function of a free market, muddies the waters. Nonetheless, tag not withstanding, if there are teams that will give Matt a deal with $30 million guaranteed including $13--17 in the first year, then that is what a Franchise QB is worth. It is the Pats problem if they decide to keep two Franchise QB's on their Roster in the Cap era, but that complication doesn't suggest that his "true value" is any less.

 

[stcjones]

Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

cassel is worth the minimum to the pats in terms of salary........but he is worth at least a 1st and a 3rd round pick in a trade

cassel is already gone

You are the one who has it right IMHO.......lets look at this logically......IF the Pats keep Cassel......they have to pay him the franchise tag amount of 14.9 mil or whatever.....THEN next year.....he can go anywhere he wants (like Samuels did) for more money......Now the Pats know that his HIGHEST trade value of his career is most likely right NOW!!!.......so he will be moved........and secondly.....we could have possibly seen the BEST of Matt Cassel.....not sure if he is a one and done....or whether he will become one of the game's greats.......my feeling is that the Pats custom made an O for him last year that was pretty darned conservative........If he goes to a KC or Detroit.....etc......may not have as much success or luck....good post tanked!

 

[AzPatsFan]

So you think ANY amount of money paid to Cassel -- as opposed to being paid to other players -- is money well spent? Would you think it is a good decision to pay him $50 million next year?

If not, what's the largest amount you do think it is a good decision to pay him?

That is easy question. Apply the "Kraft criterion". After all He IS the owner and final decision maker. "... will spend up to the limit the league allows every year, and no more. And we want to be competitive contender every season."

What you or I might do is speculative. What he WILL and HAS done is history. The Pats will spend what they can afford. While fielding a competitive contender, which consists of good players everywhere, ... including the reserves on the bench. Simple, no??

 

[PatsFanSince74]

That is easy question. Apply the "Kraft criterion". After all He IS the owner and final decision maker. "... will spend up to the limit the league allows every year, and no more. And we want to be competitive contender every season."

What you or I might do is speculative. What he WILL and HAS done is history. The Pats will spend what they can afford. While fielding a competitive contender, which consists of good players everywhere, ... including the reserves on the bench. Simple, no??

Good answer. I would just add that any payment "they can afford...while fielding a competitive contender" would also be consistent with a fairly established "market value" for Matt, which would clearly make the $50 mill number absurd.

 

[mgteich]

Why is Cassel the only QB to be considered as a backup to Brady? IMHO, to give us the best chance at a SB, we would sign the pick of the veterans for say $4M on a one-year contract (or less with incentieves), trade Cassel for whatever (with Matt's cooperation) and then use the rest of the cap money for extensions or a key free agent.

 

[mgteich]

Re: How much salary is Cassell actually worth to the Pats as a player?

Why would Cassel sign a 2-3 deal with the patriots? He has $14.6M in hand for 2009. Would the patriots offer him a HIGHER contract. say $24M over three years with a $14.6M bonus. Would Cassel consider this deal worth it; I would recommend it to him. Shouldn't he risk that he is worth more tha $10M after the 2009 season. Would you offer more?

First: Cassel.

Second: You're assuming that the only way Cassel does/can stay is on a one-year deal. I would argue that, if it came to it, the Patriots would try to get Cassel to resign to a longer deal (2-3 years) to minimize the 2009 cap hit.

 

[Fencer]

That is easy question. Apply the "Kraft criterion". After all He IS the owner and final decision maker. "... will spend up to the limit the league allows every year, and no more. And we want to be competitive contender every season."

What you or I might do is speculative. What he WILL and HAS done is history. The Pats will spend what they can afford. While fielding a competitive contender, which consists of good players everywhere, ... including the reserves on the bench. Simple, no??

You completely ducked the question. No surprise.

 

[Fencer]

The flaw in your logic is that his "true value to the Pats" is what the market says they have to pay him, in the same sense that a house is "worth" what someone will pay for it under a reasonable purchase and sale scenario, even if the comparables say it should sell for more or less.

Quite wrong.

By "true value to the Pats" I meant "cost to the Pats in salary cap dollars of similarly enhancing their probability of winning games and champions through other players". It has NOTHING to do with Cassell's market value.

There are at least three relevant numbers here:

A. What another team would be willing to pay Cassell.
B. The $14 million that Cassell is assured of receiving if no further transactions occur.
C. Cassell's true value to the Patriots (which, unless Brady is known to be out for the season, is a LOT less than $14 million).

The comparison between A and B is complicated a lot by considerations of single-year vs. multi-year deals. However, the comparison between B and C is pretty much apples-to-apples.

 

[Fencer]

Why is Cassel the only QB to be considered as a backup to Brady? IMHO, to give us the best chance at a SB, we would sign the pick of the veterans for say $4M on a one-year contract (or less with incentieves), trade Cassel for whatever (with Matt's cooperation) and then use the rest of the cap money for extensions or a key free agent.

We have bingo.

 

[Fencer]

Transwiki:Threat point - Wiktionary

Threat point is a term used in game theory to refer to the payoff to a player in a cooperative game when the player decides not to cooperate. Thus, the higher the payoff of the threat point compared to the payoff for cooperation, the less likely it is that the player will decide to cooperate.