An Uneducated Guess at Our Draft Order

[OhExaulted1]

After reading about our rotating picks and the presumable 3 comp picks I've come up with a preliminary and unreliable somewhat educated guess at our draft order. Basing some of this on NFL Forum :: - Projecting the 2008 Compensatory Picks AdamJT13's analasys of the comp system and our rotating draft position I've come up with this-

1.1- #23
2.2- #47 (SD)
3.2- #58
4.3- #89
5.3- #97 (Comp) Samuel
6.4- #124
7.4- #136 (Comp) Stallworth
8.5- #158
9.5- #167 (Comp) Gay
10.6- #192
11.7- #230

If you went by the GBN draft value table (there are many out there, but the differences would be minimal at best) Great Blue North Draft Report it would account to 1928 points (I add 1 point for every pick after 224). That would rank 4th in the BB era (2001 2424, 2003 2314 and 2008 1996).

Here are the draft value points BB has had to work with in his NE tenure-

2000-810
2001-2424
2002-1174
2003-2314
2004-1925
2005-925
2006-1722
2007-862
2008-1996
2009-1928?

KC seems like the best fit for Cassell IMO. We could get their 2nd this year (#34) and 2nd next year and maybe more. BB likes the early 2nds which is fine as long as we don't go with a Eugene Wilson or Bethel Johnson. That pick is worth 570 points and would make this the most important draft in the BB era, which I already think it is.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

After reading about our rotating picks and the presumable 3 comp picks I've come up with a preliminary and unreliable somewhat educated guess at our draft order. Basing some of this on NFL Forum :: - Projecting the 2008 Compensatory Picks AdamJT13's analasys of the comp system and our rotating draft position I've come up with this-

1.1- #23
2.2- #47 (SD)
3.2- #58
4.3- #89
5.3- #97 (Comp) Samuel
6.4- #124
7.4- #136 (Comp) Stallworth
8.5- #158
9.5- #167 (Comp) Gay
10.6- #192
11.7- #230

If you went by the GBN draft value table (there are many out there, but the differences would be minimal at best) Great Blue North Draft Report it would account to 1928 points (I add 1 point for every pick after 224). That would rank 4th in the BB era (2001 2424, 2003 2314 and 2008 1996).

Here are the draft value points BB has had to work with in his NE tenure-

2000-810
2001-2424
2002-1174
2003-2314
2004-1925
2005-925
2006-1722
2007-862
2008-1996
2009-1928?

KC seems like the best fit for Cassell IMO. We could get their 2nd this year (#34) and 2nd next year and maybe more. BB likes the early 2nds which is fine as long as we don't go with a Eugene Wilson or Bethel Johnson. That pick is worth 570 points and would make this the most important draft in the BB era, which I already think it is.

Does the 2008 value chart at 1996 include our lost pick over spygate?

 

[OhExaulted1]

Does the 2008 value chart at 1996 include our lost pick over spygate?

No. I thought about that, too. That would have been worth 580 and gave us ALOT more flexablility last year. Thanx a bunch RoJet Baddell and Traitor ManJudas.

 

[stinkypete]

Stallworth was released from the original multi-year deal he signed and therefore the Patriots do not get a comp pick.

Bummer, I know.

I do see the Pats landing a 3 and a 5. You know Belichick likes to trade picks if he has a comp pick in that round.

Hopefully this time it won't be for Duane Starks.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Stallworth was released from the original multi-year deal he signed and therefore the Patriots do not get a comp pick.

Bummer, I know.

I do see the Pats landing a 3 and a 5. You know Belichick likes to trade picks if he has a comp pick in that round.

Hopefully this time it won't be for Duane Starks.

No, Stallworth had an option that the Pats did not pick up, which made his contract expire, he is eligible for comp picks.

Trade winds could begin blowing soon

 

[Isaac]

Stallworth was released from the original multi-year deal he signed and therefore the Patriots do not get a comp pick.

No, Stallworth had an option that the Pats did not pick up, which made his contract expire, he is eligible for comp picks.

Man, that was an emotional roller-coaster.

 

[WhiZa]

I don't see much correlation to actual draft outcome except we all agree 2007 was absolutely horrendous. (EDIT: yes, Moss and Welker. But we're talking drafting here)

All we need is to get a pick better than 42 for Cassel, and BB will have his most flexible draft ever.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't see much correlation to actual draft outcome except we all agree 2007 was absolutely horrendous. (EDIT: yes, Moss and Welker. But we're talking drafting here)

All we need is to get a pick better than 42 for Cassel, and BB will have his most flexible draft ever.

While we didn't get much immediate returns from 2007, if you look at the big picture it was fairly solid. Even discounting Moss and Welker, we ended up getting Meriweather and Mayo out of our 2 picks, who look like the future cornerstones of our D. Not so terrible, even if we whiffed later on. In contrast, we seem to have gotten fairly little out of our loaded 2006 draft except for Gostkowski, having already wasted our 2nd and first 3rd round picks (traded for Chad Jackson), our first 4th round pick (Garrett Mills), and having gotten less productivity than expected from Maroney, Thomas and O'Callaghan. I'll take 2 defensive stars over that draft anyday. We also did much better with a much weaker draft in 2005.

 

[BradyManny]

No, Stallworth had an option that the Pats did not pick up, which made his contract expire, he is eligible for comp picks.

Trade winds could begin blowing soon

What he said. Its been well documented at this point Stallworth should count for us.

 

[VJCPatriot]

The 2006 draft really hurts. But 2009 is a new year and we have lots of picks. We'll get past it.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I think that the Pats will again trade picks this year for next. But every year we talk about who the Pats have to draft, and then BB goes out and fills the biggest need via free-agency (Dillon, Thomas, etc.). The only time I can remember that he did not do this, is when Washington left, and he did not sign another NT, and somehow Wilfork fell to #21.

The Pats need a Safety (preferably a strong safety, and move Merriweather to FS), they absolutely need some sort of pass rusher, a 2nd WR, and yes, a TE.

I think that unless someone unpassable drops to #23, the Pats will go defense with at least 2 if not all 3 picks in rounds 1 and 2.

But the big question here is who will the Pats sign?

 

[DW Toys]

While we didn't get much immediate returns from 2007, if you look at the big picture it was fairly solid. Even discounting Moss and Welker, we ended up getting Meriweather and Mayo out of our 2 picks, who look like the future cornerstones of our D. Not so terrible, even if we whiffed later on. In contrast, we seem to have gotten fairly little out of our loaded 2006 draft except for Gostkowski, having already wasted our 2nd and first 3rd round picks (traded for Chad Jackson), our first 4th round pick (Garrett Mills), and having gotten less productivity than expected from Maroney, Thomas and O'Callaghan. I'll take 2 defensive stars over that draft anyday. We also did much better with a much weaker draft in 2005.

Agreed. It's a crap shoot with choices like Jackson to add insult to injury as we traded up for him. We seemed to be enamored by guys without their shirts on. Look at Ben "metal mitts" Watson. He is a JAG but might develop into a decent blocking TE.
We aren't the only suckers. Look at the Chargers trading up for Jacob Hester in round two from us. Three starts and 95 yards rushing. Yikes! Think they would like the pick back?
Any second round pick for our team scares me. We do not do well. Hence maybe the Hester trade to get rid of it.
Still in favor of trades to pick up a player who can help your team now. It adds flavor to the league and creates excitement like the Allen trade last year and even all the picks that Dallas traded to Detroit for Williams. The Dillon trade, Welker trade and the Moss trade worked well for us versus Jackson and the awful draft class we picked like two years ago. That was a miss. Even last year. The best picks after Mayo (great pick) was UDFAs in Guyton, Green-Ellis and Redd. O'Connell is a question mark. The two CBs? I wouldn't grade them higher than the three UDFA's we kept. Very disappointed in those CB picks and looks like we have to find another CB in this years draft or a FA. A waste!
Get some players that you have intel on and have proved themselves. Yes there is the CAP but within reason.
DW Toys

 

[Synovia]

I don't see much correlation to actual draft outcome except we all agree 2007 was absolutely horrendous. (EDIT: yes, Moss and Welker. But we're talking drafting here)

No it wasn't. The one pick in the first day that they had is their starting safety. Everything outside the first day is taking a flyer on someone.

 

[jmt57]

Regarding the '07 draft, it comes down to varying definitions in order to determine how well the team did.

On one side is a strict definition of players drafted on those two days, and how they have panned out.

Me, I look at it as the Pats having seven draft picks, and what did they get in return. Therefore I do include Moss and Welker in critiquing the productivity of that draft. Yes, they were not college players drafted on those two days, but they became Patriot players as a result of that draft and those draft picks. To include Mayo is debateable, but it is something that should at least be taken in to consideration because that lack of a pick means one less player available to make an impact and contribute from that draft class.

To put it to an extreme, what if the Pats traded all their picks for four or five players, with the exception of a last round pick - who didn't make the team. Would that draft then be 'a complete bust' and 'worst draft ever' because nobody drafted made the team that year - even if all those players went on to have Pro Bowl seasons?

 

[dryheat44]

No it wasn't. The one pick in the first day that they had is their starting safety. Everything outside the first day is taking a flyer on someone.

Totally agree. I find it funny that a draft is considered "a bust" because a bunch of 5th-7th rounders, all of whom subsequently landed on other teams' rosters, couldn't crack a championship-caliber lineup that had 2-3 job openings.

Show me a team that consistently has 5th-7th rounders make the squad, and I'll show you a pretty poor team.

 

[WhiZa]

Totally agree. I find it funny that a draft is considered "a bust" because a bunch of 5th-7th rounders, all of whom subsequently landed on other teams' rosters, couldn't crack a championship-caliber lineup that had 2-3 job openings.

Show me a team that consistently has 5th-7th rounders make the squad, and I'll show you a pretty poor team.

You can really look at it either way. If a team uses a lot of low round picks they are either drafting geniuses or they just flat out don't have any other talent.

Interestingly, after you mentioned consistently using 5th-7th rounders, I looked up the Colts. In the past 3 years they have drafted 13 of these players. All 13 were on the roster last year.

 

[WhiZa]

For reference, The Patriots have 5 of 13 5th-7th round players in the past three years still on the roster.

Ravens have 8 of 11.

 

[dryheat44]

You can really look at it either way. If a team uses a lot of low round picks they are either drafting geniuses or they just flat out don't have any other talent.

Interestingly, after you mentioned consistently using 5th-7th rounders, I looked up the Colts. In the past 3 years they have drafted 13 of these players. All 13 were on the roster last year.

That's definitely interesting. It makes sense when you think about it....they make no effort to re-sign their own "non-skill" position players and historically aren't players in the free agency market, so there's usually job openings on the offensive and defensive lines, linebacker, and secondary. I think it's an effect of a top-heavy salary cap.

Still, 13 of 13 is nothing short of amazing. Of course, the Pats do have an abnormal amount of UDFAs on the team....Guyton, Redd, BG-E, Alexander, Wright, Ventrone, Gutierrez, Neal....so maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree. Although I guess Redd and Gutierrez were injury replacements.

 

[Isaac]

After reading about our rotating picks and the presumable 3 comp picks I've come up with a preliminary and unreliable somewhat educated guess at our draft order. Basing some of this on NFL Forum :: - Projecting the 2008 Compensatory Picks AdamJT13's analasys of the comp system and our rotating draft position I've come up with this-

1.1- #23
2.2- #47 (SD)
3.2- #58
4.3- #89
5.3- #97 (Comp) Samuel
6.4- #124
7.4- #136 (Comp) Stallworth
8.5- #158
9.5- #167 (Comp) Gay
10.6- #192
11.7- #230

If you went by the GBN draft value table (there are many out there, but the differences would be minimal at best) Great Blue North Draft Report it would account to 1928 points (I add 1 point for every pick after 224). That would rank 4th in the BB era (2001 2424, 2003 2314 and 2008 1996).

Here are the draft value points BB has had to work with in his NE tenure-

2000-810
2001-2424
2002-1174
2003-2314
2004-1925
2005-925
2006-1722
2007-862
2008-1996
2009-1928?

Updating this with the Vrabel/Cassel trade, pick #34 is 570 points, giving a 2009 estimated total of 2498--indeed the largest total during the BB era.

Of course some will be traded, but I wonder if holding 12 picks would also be some kind of BB-era record.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Has that comp pick for Samuel {pick97} been set in stone? That's not too bad of a pick.