Most likely trade-up partner?

[mayoclinic]

I'm NOT suggesting that the Pats will trade up in this draft - quite possibly the opposite. There is a lot of value deep in this draft. BUT every year some elite prospects fall a bit in the 1st round, and if BB saw someone he wanted badly I could see trading up with last year's partner, New Orleans.

Why? New Orleans is picking #14 in the 1st. They have no 2nd round (to the Giants for Jeremy Shockey), and I'm not sure about their 3rd round as well (they owe the Jets for Jonathan Vilma - please clarify if anyone knows exactly what). They have major needs at LB and DB on defense and a superbowl caliber offense. They would love to get back into the 1st day, or at least pick up additional picks. At #23 (or potentially as high as #19, see below) they would likely still have several attractive DB or LB options.

I could see BB trading up from #23 to #14. With 2 picks in the 2nd round, #57 would be pretty close to equal value. The Jets went from #25 to #14 in 2007 for #59 and #164. If we franchised Cassel and traded him to TB for #19 + conditional 2010 picks then moving from #19 to #14 would be even easier, with #86 being close to equal value. Picking at 14 could land an elite player who falls (BJ Raji, Aaron Curry, or Malcolm Jenkins - all unlikely but possible; one of the top OTs; or Orapko/Brown if we wanted to go after a top pass rusher). Last year it would have given us a shot at DRC or Brandon Albert. Plus, #14 is right in the "sweet spot" of the 1st round where the rookie salary is not outrageous and the talent is often identical to top 10. With Mayo's success this year, maybe BB would like the idea of getting a top talent who might be more able to step in and contribute.

Again, not saying it's likely, but something to consider.

 

[patchick]

That's a great point about New Orleans -- I believe you're right that they've already dealt away their #2 & #3. Ah, trade scenarios galore!

 

[WhiZa]

I think it comes down to is there a player in this draft that can, like you said, step in and contribute right away. Some player that is an low risk upgrade of a current position. Last year, we had Hobson starting at ILB before the draft so signing a ILB in round one was an easy upgrade.

At this point, before FA, the only openings I see where a first round pick has the best chance to step in and contribute (if you are trading up you want to give the new guy the best opportunity to do just that) is at safety and 3rd WR. You could also make a case for LB, but I think the starters are set for next year (AD, Mayo, Bruschi, Vrabel).

So the question is, is there that special safety or WR at #14 that you couldn't find if you drafted one at #23 and/or in the second round.

 

[patchick]

At this point, before FA, the only openings I see where a first round pick has the best chance to step in and contribute (if you are trading up you want to give the new guy the best opportunity to do just that) is at safety and 3rd WR.

I think it's broader than that, if we're talking about a player worth the #14 overall. IF the right player were available he could potentially make a significant contribution year one at positions like RT, TE, CB & SILB.

 

[dryheat44]

I think it's broader than that, if we're talking about a player worth the #14 overall. IF the right player were available he could potentially make a significant contribution year one at positions like RT, TE, CB & SILB.

Yep. Don't forget that BB considers 3rd WRs, 2nd TEs, nickel corners, and pass rushers as "starters".

In an Xs and Os part of the press conference, Belichick was asked about the recent trend in the NFL of teams placing a higher value on third corners, a result of more offenses spreading the field. Belichick agreed, while revealing that the Patriots have re-valued/re-graded parts of their draft board and the way they value certain positions, such as a third receiver, third corner, third-down running back, or a second- or third-down pass rusher compared to other positions

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I think it's broader than that, if we're talking about a player worth the #14 overall. IF the right player were available he could potentially make a significant contribution year one at positions like RT, TE, CB & SILB.

Also, keep in mind that the pick has to already represent value before BB jumps up. At no point this decade have the Patriots moved up on day one just to "get their guy."

 

[WhiZa]

I think it's broader than that, if we're talking about a player worth the #14 overall. IF the right player were available he could potentially make a significant contribution year one at positions like RT, TE, CB & SILB.

I agree. Though at RT, TE, and somewhat CB I don't see a first round pick coming in and contributing year one.
RT - As much as I want Kaczur to take a backup role, with his experience, BB just seems to want to keep him in there
TE - Watson is starting next year, like he has the past few years. If we signed a TE it would have to be one who specializes in blocking with potential in the passing game. They would only come in on running downs and at a spot like #14 you need a player who can start and play both running and passing downs, but I don't see a rookie taking that spot from Watson next year.
CB - There is definitely a hole at #2 CB or some might say #1 CB. The patriots drafted 2 CBs last year who made the team and looked decent. I think either one of them will start next year opposite Hobbs (even though I'd love to see an upgrade). The only way I can see them drafting a CB is if that player is a monster on ST, though they drafted Slater last year for just that.

 

[mayoclinic]

Also, keep in mind that the pick has to already represent value before BB jumps up. At no point this decade have the Patriots moved up on day one just to "get their guy."

I'm not sure I understand your point. I don't see trading up ahead of time, if that's what you mean. But if someone fell to #14 who the Pats really coveted and they thought he wouldn't be available later, I could see them making a draft day move.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

at this point, I believe that good value will fall to #23, so not sure if moving up is a good deal

 

[patchick]

Also, keep in mind that the pick has to already represent value before BB jumps up. At no point this decade have the Patriots moved up on day one just to "get their guy."

I'm not sure I agree overall...Warren was projected by most to the 2nd half of round 1, and they moved up to #13 to secure the last premium DE prospect. This year, though, I'd agree 100% just because I don't see the same match of top need and top prospect happening. Trade-up scenarios would be in the "let the draft come to you" vein.

 

[bakes781]

Trying to get into the mind of Belichick is near impossible IMO, so I'm not going to even attempt to do that. But I think it's clear that he's willing to move up or down the draft at any point.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I'm not sure I agree overall...Warren was projected by most to the 2nd half of round 1, and they moved up to #13 to secure the last premium DE prospect. This year, though, I'd agree 100% just because I don't see the same match of top need and top prospect happening. Trade-up scenarios would be in the "let the draft come to you" vein.

I don't believe that's true.......draft countdown had warren going to the pats at #14

Draft Countdown - 2003 Final Mock Draft

but they also had kevin williams falling to the bears at #13.......and comparing it to what actually happened, it seems as though things changed from the 'plan' when the saints drafted jonathan sullivan and the vikings took kevin williams....the thinking was that the ravens were going to draft boller at #10, but suggs fell to them so they had to take him....and then the rams too jimmy kennedy........I think what happened then is that it was obvious to the bears who the pats wanted and held him hostage for an extra pick.....moving up one pick on drafted is purely to get the guy you want

so yeah, the pats may move up if a particular player is still available...just say that someone like everette brown or aaron maybin is there at #20 and the pats are enamored with him, and you have the cardinals who are sitting there at #21 with dansby as a FA......you might want to jump ahead and make sure you get the guy you want instead of settling for BPA at #23

 

[Jimke]

I'm NOT suggesting that the Pats will trade up in this draft - quite possibly the opposite. There is a lot of value deep in this draft. BUT every year some elite prospects fall a bit in the 1st round, and if BB saw someone he wanted badly I could see trading up with last year's partner, New Orleans.

Why? New Orleans is picking #14 in the 1st. They have no 2nd round (to the Giants for Jeremy Shockey), and I'm not sure about their 3rd round as well (they owe the Jets for Jonathan Vilma - please clarify if anyone knows exactly what). They have major needs at LB and DB on defense and a superbowl caliber offense. They would love to get back into the 1st day, or at least pick up additional picks. At #23 (or potentially as high as #19, see below) they would likely still have several attractive DB or LB options.

I could see BB trading up from #23 to #14. With 2 picks in the 2nd round, #57 would be pretty close to equal value. The Jets went from #25 to #14 in 2007 for #59 and #164. If we franchised Cassel and traded him to TB for #19 + conditional 2010 picks then moving from #19 to #14 would be even easier, with #86 being close to equal value. Picking at 14 could land an elite player who falls (BJ Raji, Aaron Curry, or Malcolm Jenkins - all unlikely but possible; one of the top OTs; or Orapko/Brown if we wanted to go after a top pass rusher). Last year it would have given us a shot at DRC or Brandon Albert. Plus, #14 is right in the "sweet spot" of the 1st round where the rookie salary is not outrageous and the talent is often identical to top 10. With Mayo's success this year, maybe BB would like the idea of getting a top talent who might be more able to step in and contribute.

Again, not saying it's likely, but something to consider.

You have picked a good possible trade partner. If New Orleans re-signs
Jonathan Vilva before free agency begins, they owe the New York Jets a
#2 draft pick. The trouble is that they have already traded that pick
to the Giants for Jeremy Shockey. If the Saints don't come up with
another #2 pick, they would owe the Giants their #1 pick.

 

[bakes781]

You have picked a good possible trade partner. If New Orleans re-signs
Jonathan Vilva before free agency begins, they owe the New York Jets a
#2 draft pick. The trouble is that they have already traded that pick
to the Giants for Jeremy Shockey. If the Saints don't come up with
another #2 pick, they would owe the Giants their #1 pick.

Well if that's the case then all that would likely be decided well before the draft.

 

[PatsFan2]

I'm NOT suggesting that the Pats will trade up in this draft - quite possibly the opposite. There is a lot of value deep in this draft. BUT every year some elite prospects fall a bit in the 1st round, and if BB saw someone he wanted badly I could see trading up with last year's partner, New Orleans.

Why? New Orleans is picking #14 in the 1st. They have no 2nd round (to the Giants for Jeremy Shockey), and I'm not sure about their 3rd round as well (they owe the Jets for Jonathan Vilma - please clarify if anyone knows exactly what). They have major needs at LB and DB on defense and a superbowl caliber offense. They would love to get back into the 1st day, or at least pick up additional picks. At #23 (or potentially as high as #19, see below) they would likely still have several attractive DB or LB options.

I could see BB trading up from #23 to #14. With 2 picks in the 2nd round, #57 would be pretty close to equal value. The Jets went from #25 to #14 in 2007 for #59 and #164. If we franchised Cassel and traded him to TB for #19 + conditional 2010 picks then moving from #19 to #14 would be even easier, with #86 being close to equal value. Picking at 14 could land an elite player who falls (BJ Raji, Aaron Curry, or Malcolm Jenkins - all unlikely but possible; one of the top OTs; or Orapko/Brown if we wanted to go after a top pass rusher). Last year it would have given us a shot at DRC or Brandon Albert. Plus, #14 is right in the "sweet spot" of the 1st round where the rookie salary is not outrageous and the talent is often identical to top 10. With Mayo's success this year, maybe BB would like the idea of getting a top talent who might be more able to step in and contribute.

Again, not saying it's likely, but something to consider.

I completely agree i think there is going to be a run on the better LB prospects and 23 might be a ways away yet. I would rather them secure a can't miss prospect who fits our Defense Perfectly than going with the alternative route. Lets say 23 coupled with either Second would do it...we would still have a 2nd and Two 3rd rounders. One more IMPACT LB coupled with Mayo fixes our Front 7. I like the Dept at CB and still think we can find guys who can contribute on Day 2.

 

[Clonamery]

You have picked a good possible trade partner. If New Orleans re-signs
Jonathan Vilva before free agency begins, they owe the New York Jets a
#2 draft pick. The trouble is that they have already traded that pick
to the Giants for Jeremy Shockey. If the Saints don't come up with
another #2 pick, they would owe the Giants their #1 pick.

I believe it's the Saints 2010 1st rd pick.....

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm not sure I agree overall...Warren was projected by most to the 2nd half of round 1, and they moved up to #13 to secure the last premium DE prospect. This year, though, I'd agree 100% just because I don't see the same match of top need and top prospect happening. Trade-up scenarios would be in the "let the draft come to you" vein.

You're right, although I should have been a little more precise: the Patriots have not made a significant move up (i.e., 5+ places) on day one for want/need alone. After all, the Pats only coughed up a 6 to move up for Warren (in a draft in which they still ended up with seven picks in the last four rounds).

 

[dryheat44]

You're right, although I should have been a little more precise: the Patriots have not made a significant move up (i.e., 5+ places) on day one for want/need alone. After all, the Pats only coughed up a 6 to move up for Warren (in a draft in which they still ended up with seven picks in the last four rounds).

I would put the 13-place-or-so move up for Daniel Graham in that category. TE was certainly their biggest need that year.

But I don't think you can separate need from value. They're entwined. He's not going to draft a 4th-round safety in the 1st round because he needs a safety.

 

[Patriot Missile]

No one mentioned Dallas? Oh wait.............

 

[Jimke]

Well if that's the case then all that would likely be decided well before the draft.

For this reason the deal would probably not be done. The Patriots would

want to see the draft board and know whether a "must have" player was

available.