Is Vrabel worth $5M?

[VJCPatriot]

I know I'm going to get a lot of flames for this but try to think of it objectively. Vrabel has definitely slowed down 1 or 2 steps and he is on the wrong side of 30. My question is this - Is Vrabel worth the 5M or so cap hit that he is taking up, or should he be cut?

And then the Pats could go ahead and use the money they save from him to sign a premier FA OLB, like say a Dansby or a Suggs? This is NOT hating on Vrabel, this is questioning whether the Pats can allocate their cap resources more effectively AND improving the team by eliminating his cap hit.

 

[j00fek]

until we see a drop in production, yes

 

[DaBruinz]

I know I'm going to get a lot of flames for this but try to think of it objectively. Vrabel has definitely slowed down 1 or 2 steps and he is on the wrong side of 30. My question is this - Is Vrabel worth the 5M or so cap hit that he is taking up, or should he be cut?

And then the Pats could go ahead and use the money they save from him to sign a premier FA OLB, like say a Dansby or a Suggs? This is NOT hating on Vrabel, this is questioning whether the Pats can allocate their cap resources more effectively AND improving the team by eliminating his cap hit.

You do realize that Vrabel's cap hit is only 4.39 million, yes? Hmm.. No. I guess not. Cutting him would save 3.3 million. Is 3.3 million really going to be enough to sign Dansby or Suggs? I don't think it will be. Not to mention that the Pats already have 19 million in cap space, though that will go down the about 5 when Cassel is officially franchised. Though, a quick trade will free that money back up.

I think its much more likely that Vrabel will sign an extension that would lower his cap hit than to be cut outright. But stranger things have happened.

 

[VJCPatriot]

until we see a drop in production, yes

We've already seen the drop in production. Have you been watching him play in 2008? Vrabel doesn't have the legs to get around the OL and apply pressure to the QB anymore.

 

[BradyManny]

I would say a healthy Vrabel is certainly worth 5 milli, but that's not the relevant question, IMO, b/c cutting him wouldn't save 5 milli, it'd save 3.5. So the question is not having him worth saving 3.5 out of 5 million, to which I think the obvious answer is no. You can't find a player to do what he can for 3.5 million.

His pass rush was not the same last year, granted, and he can't be used much in coverage at this point. But he's still very good setting the edge and he was playing through a shoulder injury.

If they are going to add a Dansby or a Suggs, then they are still going to want Vrabel. If they add Dansby, he plays SILB and you need AD and Vrabel outside. If they add Suggs, then its AD moving to SILB in the base D at least and Vrabel stays outside. Point being, the issue on the D is SILB, IMO.

 

[mayoclinic]

Vrabel circa 2007 was worth every penny of $5M. Vrabel circa 2008 was probably not. We don't know what Vrabel 2009 will be - the 2007 version, the 2008 version, or continuing to age and slow down.

I hope we can possibly restructure Vrabel (he is a UFA after 2009) to something like 2 years/$6M, and then use some of that money in FA. Dansby would be nice. But unless you believe that Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable or Vince Redd are ready to take over for Vrabel or you are convinced he will continue to deteriorate rapidly, then keeping him makes more sense.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Vrabel,Thomas,Bruschi and the other guys over 30 are still vital to the team in terms of experience and helping the younger guys to adjust to the game - I don't think Vrabel should be the every down starter anymore - Does that mean he should not earn $5M - That decision is up to Kraft and Co.

 

[captain stone]

Vrabel's cap hit is $5M? That sux, because he's no longer worth that high an amount. The question becomes, then: What to do with him? My answer: Move him to SILB. As a pass-rushing OLB, he's finished; moving him to SILB next to Mayo would fortify our interior run defense while adding youth & speed at OLB, in the person(s) of Crable, Woods, Redd, one of our PS OLBs, a younger vet FA, or a draft choice. If Vrabel complains - again - that playing inside would shorten his career, well guess what Mike - you only have a year or two left anyway.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

until they find a replacement, yes.........would I consider using his cap space for suggs or dansby? yes........

 

[VJCPatriot]

You do realize that Vrabel's cap hit is only 4.39 million, yes? Hmm.. No. I guess not. Cutting him would save 3.3 million. Is 3.3 million really going to be enough to sign Dansby or Suggs? I don't think it will be. Not to mention that the Pats already have 19 million in cap space, though that will go down the about 5 when Cassel is officially franchised. Though, a quick trade will free that money back up.

I think its much more likely that Vrabel will sign an extension that would lower his cap hit than to be cut outright. But stranger things have happened.

Nobody said that Suggs or Dansby would only cost what Vrabel's cap hit is. They are premiere players so they are likely going to cost more. But the money that we saved from cutting him could certainly be allocated for spending on an UPGRADE to the OLB position.

That's not so hard to understand is it? Would you rather have an aging and deteriorating OLB taking up that cap space, or use his money towards acquiring an upgrade?

Additionally, there IS precedent for BB cutting the overpaid, underperforming OLB to make room for an upgrade to the position. See Colvin, Rosevelt.

 

[Synovia]

Vrabel,Thomas,Bruschi and the other guys over 30 are still vital to the team in terms of experience and helping the younger guys to adjust to the game - I don't think Vrabel should be the every down starter anymore - Does that mean he should not earn $5M - That decision is up to Kraft and Co.

Those three are very different players.


Thomas is still in his prime, and is an elite player.

Vrable is very obviously declining, is a decent player, but is being paid as if hes in his prime.

Bruschi is Jason Varitek: Replacement level with good intangibles.




I don't think Vrable is worth anywhere near 4.4M this year. He's owed 1M in bonus money. Cutting him would save 3.3M. I think he needs to be renegotiated or cut, I would love to have him back though.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Those three are very different players.


Thomas is still in his prime, and is an elite player.

Vrable is very obviously declining, is a decent player, but is being paid as if hes in his prime.

Bruschi is Jason Varitek: Replacement level with good intangibles.




I don't think Vrable is worth anywhere near 4.4M this year. He's owed 1M in bonus money. Cutting him would save 3.3M. I think he needs to be renegotiated or cut, I would love to have him back though.

Finally someone who sees the bottom line. And yes those over 30 players are all at very different POINTS in their careers. Vrabel is not currently worth what he is earning.

 

[BradyManny]

Finally someone who sees the bottom line. And yes those over 30 players are all at very different POINTS in their careers. Vrabel is not currently worth what he is earning.

Maybe he's not worth 5 milli, but you're going to pay him 1.5 million this season whether he plays or not, why not pay another 3+ milli to have him play? Where are you going to find a replacement? And how could you do it for 3+ million? FYI, the guy that agrees with you (Synovia) is the same guy that wants to trade or cut Brady in spite of all the dead money that would be owed to him, just to save a few money in 2010, which, as of now, would be an uncapped season anyway.

 

[BradyManny]

Additionally, there IS precedent for BB cutting the overpaid, underperforming OLB to make room for an upgrade to the position. See Colvin, Rosevelt.

Colvin was damaged goods, and his injury was going to set him back quite a bit. In Colvin's case, the team was saving something like 5 mill and it was only costing them 1.8 mill in dead money.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

1) If you can replace him with a better player for 3.3 or less, then he isn't worth 4.39.

2) If you can't replace him for 3.3, getting both younger and better, then he is worth the 4.39.

I think #2 is the case. If it is at all a close call, I think you try to renegotiate from the 4.39 down a little.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Vrable is very obviously declining, is a decent player, but is being paid as if hes in his prime.

No. It's obvious he wasn't the same player in 2008 he was in 2007, but that's not the same thing as saying "he's very obviously declining." They would not have had him on the field as much as they did if he was washed up.

 

[Synovia]

Maybe he's not worth 5 milli, but you're going to pay him 1.5 million this season whether he plays or not, why not pay another 3+ milli to have him play? Where are you going to find a replacement? And how could you do it for 3+ million? FYI, the guy that agrees with you (Synovia) is the same guy that wants to trade or cut Brady in spite of all the dead money that would be owed to him, just to save a few money in 2010, which, as of now, would be an uncapped season anyway.

Um, no, I dont. Please don't attribute things to me that I haven't said. I've said its possible, not that I want them to do it.


Vrable's cap hit if cut is 1.036 MIllion, not 1.5. Yes, I do think you could get a player whos better than Vrable at this point for 3.5M. 3.5M would make a nice dent in the 7M/yr or so that Suggs is going to get.

 

[BradyManny]

Yeah, FWIW, Vrabel has had less than 5.5 sacks in every season of his 12 year career except 2. I think the 12.5 sack output in 07 led to some overly high expectations as for the kind of production he would put up. In 05 and 06, he had 4.5 sacks each year.

 

[Synovia]

No. It's obvious he wasn't the same player in 2008 he was in 2007, but that's not the same thing as saying "he's very obviously declining." They would not have had him on the field as much as they did if he was washed up.

Again, cut the hyperbole and actually read my posts.

You can be obviously declining and not be washed up. Hes an average to slightly below average starter, not washed up. He was elite two years ago. Thats not a good trend, and theres a very real possiblility that he will be washed up this year.

 

[BradyManny]

Um, no, I dont. Please don't attribute things to me that I haven't said. I've said its possible, not that I want them to do it.


Vrable's cap hit if cut is 1.036 MIllion, not 1.5. Yes, I do think you could get a player whos better than Vrable at this point for 3.5M. 3.5M would make a nice dent in the 7M/yr or so that Suggs is going to get.

Name a player that they can get for 3.5 million who can come in and immediately play OLB in the Pats 3-4, rush the passer, set the edge and drop in coverage.

3.5 million does not make a nice dent into the contract Suggs will get, it will have an impact on this season, which would probably have the lowest cap hit anyway.

And even if you sign Suggs, you still have to keep Vrabel. The hole on the defense is at SILB, not OLB, and if they sign Suggs, they'd probably move AD to SILB and keep Vrabel at OLB anyway.