A Cassel Misconception

[Miguel]

Because agents have done a great job of fluffing up the contracts given to top draft picks there is now a current myth (See 2 posts in the past week) that Cassel will be cheaper to sign than a high draft pick.
Fluffing up example - Matt Ryan's contract was reported to be a 6 year, $72 million with over $34 million in guarantees.
That sounds like a great deal until one looks at the details.
Here was actually guaranteed.
His 2008 salary of $295,000.
A 2008 roster bonus of $2,505,000.
His 2009 salary of $3,500,000.
His 2010 salary of $4,200,000.
His 2011 salary of $4,900,000.
His 2012 salary of $5,600,000.
His 2013 salary of $6,300,000.

That is a total of $27.3 million. That is all Ryan was scheduled to get. To get more Ryan has to reach the incentives/escalators in his contract. One can subtract a million from Ryan's potential take from this deal because he did not reach the one million incentive for the Falcons winning the Super Bow this year.

What are the chances that Cassell will sign a long-term deal that pays him just $3 million in the 1st year??that is mostly incentive-laden??whose salaries are limited to a 25% increase??

 

[JSn]

Great post. It's true, I assumed a lot about Ryan's contract and this is a big help. Thanks for that, Miguel.

 

[Pats726]

Great point...as alaways...good that you can cit through the numbers and find the REAL numbers..and what is important!!

 

[Pujo]

Good info, but your title could have used a pun.

"Cassels Made of Sand"
"A Man's Team is his Cassel"
"Fortifying Our Cassel"

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Good info, but your title could have used a pun.

"Cassels Made of Sand"
"A Man's Team is his Cassel"
"Fortifying Our Cassel"

Or, as the folks dressed in medieval garb just before Halloween had on their signs, "Guard the Cassel."

But you have to admit, it's a pretty easy joke.

 

[WhiZa]

This guaranteed contract is quite similar to Matt Schaub's guaranteed contract. It's really 20 million over 3 years with incentive bonuses reaching $48 million over 6 years. So in reality the contracts are about the same, but are you probably willing to give the contract to the experienced QB over the rookie.

Houston Texans Examiner: The truth about Matt Schaub's contract

 

[billdog3484]

i think this is a great post. however, i think it is important to keep in mind, that with Rookie QBs, you never know what you are going to get. So, yes, money is cheap early, but, you may be stuck paying a guy 7M in year 5 when he turns out to be Tim Couch or David Carr

 

[JSn]

i think this is a great post. however, i think it is important to keep in mind, that with Rookie QBs, you never know what you are going to get. So, yes, money is cheap early, but, you may be stuck paying a guy 7M in year 5 when he turns out to be Tim Couch or David Carr

Dude, don't diss Eric Carr!

 

[D-Money]

If we could trade Matt Cassel, i think the Lions would be the perfect team.Get the 20th pick from them.

 

[Rob0729]

Because agents have done a great job of fluffing up the contracts given to top draft picks there is now a current myth (See 2 posts in the past week) that Cassel will be cheaper to sign than a high draft pick.
Fluffing up example - Matt Ryan's contract was reported to be a 6 year, $72 million with over $34 million in guarantees.
That sounds like a great deal until one looks at the details.
Here was actually guaranteed.
His 2008 salary of $295,000.
A 2008 roster bonus of $2,505,000.
His 2009 salary of $3,500,000.
His 2010 salary of $4,200,000.
His 2011 salary of $4,900,000.
His 2012 salary of $5,600,000.
His 2013 salary of $6,300,000.

That is a total of $27.3 million. That is all Ryan was scheduled to get. To get more Ryan has to reach the incentives/escalators in his contract. One can subtract a million from Ryan's potential take from this deal because he did not reach the one million incentive for the Falcons winning the Super Bow this year.

What are the chances that Cassell will sign a long-term deal that pays him just $3 million in the 1st year??that is mostly incentive-laden??whose salaries are limited to a 25% increase??

Ryan does have a "log" bonus of $7.4 million that brings his total guarantees up to a little under $35 million. Considering Ryan started every game in his rookie season, I think he already fulfilled the requirements. Even if he hasn't he would have to have a season ending non-football related injury not to get it. Log bonuses are near impossible not to make unless you are like Kellen Winslow who crashes his bike doing wheelies in the parking lot. So, technically Ryan has $7 million a year in guarantees because unless Ryan was a bonehead, his log bonus was virtually guaranteed.

As for the structure of Ryan's deal, Ryan didn't get a lot this season because the Falcons are limited in what they can give him based on the rookie pool.

I do agree with you that there isn't a huge difference between what Cassel will get and Ryan got last year and Cassel could ultimately get even more. But, at this point, Cassel is far more of a proven comodity than any rookie QB. For every Manning, Ryan, Flacco, etc. who are great high first round picks, there are more than plenty Tim Couchs, Rick Mirers, and Ryan Leafs. Cassel has been proven to play at a Pro Bowl quality level in the Pros.

 

[Ice Cold Bruschi]

yeah, I don't think teams will be pursuing MFC as the cheaper option, I think its more in terms of the fact that he is a more proven commodity that still has a high ceiling coming from a program with a great track record even if his contract is the same as say, Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez, he is the better investment because he has proved he can play in the nfl, even if his success is due to our system that just means that the team that signs him may have to tailor their system to be more conducive to his abilities.

 

[Miguel]

This guaranteed contract is quite similar to Matt Schaub's guaranteed contract. It's really 20 million over 3 years with incentive bonuses reaching $48 million over 6 years. So in reality the contracts are about the same, but are you probably willing to give the contract to the experienced QB over the rookie.

Houston Texans Examiner: The truth about Matt Schaub's contract

While I disagree that Matt Ryan's contract is quite similar to Matt Schaub's contract, that is not the point of my post. My point is that Matt Cassell is going to be more expensive to sign than any draft pick. I have seen a couple of recent posts that contended that because it would be cheaper to sign Cassel than a high draft pick that would increase Cassel's trade value.

 

[Miguel]

Ryan does have a "log" bonus of $7.4 million that brings his total guarantees up to a little under $35 million. Considering Ryan started every game in his rookie season, I think he already fulfilled the requirements. Even if he hasn't he would have to have a season ending non-football related injury not to get it. Log bonuses are near impossible not to make unless you are like Kellen Winslow who crashes his bike doing wheelies in the parking lot. So, technically Ryan has $7 million a year in guarantees because unless Ryan was a bonehead, his log bonus was virtually guaranteed.

virtually guaranteed is not guaranteed. But let's include the log bonus. That would make Ryan's APY just under 6 million. My point is that it is very likely that Cassel will sign a deal with a much higher APY.

I do agree with you that there isn't a huge difference between what Cassel will get and Ryan got last year

I am saying that there is a huge difference between what Cassel will get and what Ryan got. Ryan got $3 million in new money in the 1st year of his deal. Cassel is likely to get 5 to 6 times as much. That to me is a huge difference.

 

[Miguel]

yeah, I don't think teams will be pursuing MFC as the cheaper option, I think its more in terms of the fact that he is a more proven commodity that still has a high ceiling coming from a program with a great track record even if his contract is the same as say, Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez,

I will contend that if Cassel signs a long-term deal this year his contract will be better than any 2009 draft picks.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'm not suggestion that you're not right about a $7 million difference between what is and is not guranteed - but Ryan's maybe not the best example to make the case that teams are better off with a rookie compared to Cassel if they want to save money.

First of all, he's not a bust. And that in turn would lead one to believe that he'll earn a good portion of his rookie contract if his incentives are reasonable. Paying less $$ to a rookie QB who's a bust than to Cassel is what the teams would want to avoid - not strictly finding the lowest salary between the two in making their decision.

I think the main point that people usually make is that there's a long history of highly touted, highly drafted QBs failing to meet expectations.

In Cassel's case, while some might still attribute his success to playing with great receivers, or being a "system QB" - I think anyone can see he's got most of the skills (he's technically still developing) confidence, and smarts to have a similar season to this one.

THAT'S what would prompt a team to choose Cassel over a rookie IMO - they'll have to pay a nice chunk of money no matter what. With a rookie they're taking a much bigger risk of paying that to a bust than they are with Cassel.
I don't think THAT'S a misconception at all, looking at all the rookie QBs who did not live up to their expectations or contracts.

 

[PatsFan2]

I'm not suggestion that you're not right about a $7 million difference between what is and is not guranteed - but Ryan's maybe not the best example to make the case that teams are better off with Cassel.

First of all, he's not a bust. And that in turn would lead one to believe that he'll earn a good portion of his rookie contract if his incentives are reasonable.

I think the main point that people usually make is that there's a long history of highly touted, highly drafted QBs failing to meet expectations.

In Cassel's case, while some might still attribute his success to playing with great receivers, or being a "system QB" - I think anyone can see he's got most of the skills (he's technically still developing) confidence, and smarts to have a similar season to this one.

THAT'S what would prompt a team to choose Cassel over a rookie IMO - they'll have to pay a nice chunk of money no matter what. With a rookie they're taking a much bigger risk of paying that to a bust than they are with Cassel.

I don't think THAT'S a misconception at all, looking at all the rookie QBs who did not live up to their expectations or contracts.

Great post...this is a now: what have you done lately kinda league. Matt Cassel has won 11 Games as a Starter playing in almost 15 and a 1/2 Games. He posted a 11-5 record against NFL Defenses while going through a learning process...that says something. Rookie QB's are Hit and Miss...and Cassel is going to get some money regardless because he has already proven he can play in this League. Cassel is multi-dimensional also he's not some statue. I think he's better than any Rookie will be QB in 2009...the QB needy Teams who pass on Matt Cassel are going to regret it.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Great post...this is a now: what have you done lately kinda league. Matt Cassel has won 11 Games as a Starter playing in almost 15 and a 1/2 Games. He posted a 11-5 record against NFL Defenses while going through a learning process...that says something. Rookie QB's are Hit and Miss...and Cassel is going to get some money regardless because he has already proven he can play in this League. Cassel is multi-dimensional also he's not some statue. I think he's better than any Rookie will be QB in 2009...the QB needy Teams who pass on Matt Cassel are going to regret it.

In the long run there might be a rookie QB who winds up having a better career than Cassel - i.e. the next Tom Brady.

But its the gamble with that sort of money, on unproven players that makes teams view Cassel as a preferred alternative over a cheaper high 1st round QB.

 

[Miguel]

I'm not suggestion that you're not right about a $7 million difference between what is and is not guranteed - but Ryan's maybe not the best example to make the case that teams are better off with a rookie compared to Cassel if they want to save money.

I am not making that case.

All I am saying is that contrary to some recent posts Cassel's trade value will not be enhanced because he will be cheaper to sign than a high draft pick. That is it.

 

[Miguel]

Two such posts:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...g-cassels-trade-value-page11.html#post1256916

"Matt is essentially going to be a draftable QB. He's got two things on the QB's entering the draft:

1) NFL experience with a proven track record & training under a proven team.

2) He will be cheaper to sign than a top 10 drafted QB"

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...will-cassel-franchised-page4.html#post1257301

"Teams that need a QB can either A) Draft a QB in the 1st round and give him a hefty contract that is justified on his performance against college players or B) Give up a 1st round pick and maybe 3rd or later and a hefty contract - but for less money than it would take to sign a QB high in the draft - on a player that did well against NFL players.

The above posts illustrate the misconception I am addressing. I am sure that there have been others.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I am not making that case.

All I am saying is that contrary to some recent posts Cassel's trade value will not be enhanced because he will be cheaper to sign than a high draft pick. That is it.

Two such posts:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...g-cassels-trade-value-page11.html#post1256916

"Matt is essentially going to be a draftable QB. He's got two things on the QB's entering the draft:

1) NFL experience with a proven track record & training under a proven team.

2) He will be cheaper to sign than a top 10 drafted QB"

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...will-cassel-franchised-page4.html#post1257301

"Teams that need a QB can either A) Draft a QB in the 1st round and give him a hefty contract that is justified on his performance against college players or B) Give up a 1st round pick and maybe 3rd or later and a hefty contract - but for less money than it would take to sign a QB high in the draft - on a player that did well against NFL players.

The above posts illustrate the misconception I am addressing. I am sure that there have been others.

Understood.

So they're right about him being an attractive alternative to actually drafting a QB - but for the wrong reason.

The fact that King would say something he pulled from his ***** doesn't surprise me either.

It is kindof funny to consider Cassel as being "in" the draft though.