Denver will switch to a 3-4, meaning more competition for Patriots-type players

[Scouse Patriot]

Do Denver have the linebackers to for any variant of it to be effective? The likes of D.J. Williams are better suited to a 4-3, sideline to sideline 'backers. Obviously he could come inside but is taking on guards his thing.

It could be a problem with more 3-4 teams but theres thousands of players out there, you just have to make sure you scout them an get them in before everyone else. Pats may end up having to pay more than they would like to too..

 

[MassPats38]

The 3-3 Stack is a 3-3-5. It is an 8 man front stack defense primarily played in college and HS.

Consistent with my understanding, but I was trying to translate the 3-3-2 reference as I had never heard of it (other than noting the numbers don't add up).

My response was an attempt to answer the 3-3-2 question, the link calling a 3-3-2 a 33 stack I now see is for 8-man football (which explains why the diagram looked incomplete). In fact, every reference to that defense I can see is to 8-man football. If it applies to 11-man football, I'm not seeing it.

 

[MassPats38]

Would this have been what we saw mostly this year HAD Tank Williams and Rodney been healthy all year?

I like to think Belichick isn't married to traditional formations and will throw players in whatever role he thinks will best stop an offense (he tried a defense a few years ago against the Colts that Madden had never seen previously, as an example). With more defensive backs on the field, that would seem like a special purpose defense that would be better against a pass.

I believe Belichick wanted safeties to perform the Bob Sanders-type role of stuffing the run, therefore more physical at the line of scrimmage, but you would not need to change formations to do that. Your front seven are still the best defense against runs.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm a little surprised at the idea of Denver and KC switching to the 3-4. I understand that Pioli has mainly scouted 3-4 players, but his skill has been more finding players to fit a system than exclusively being a 3-4 guy. McDaniels comes from an offensive background, so it shouldn't matter to him. Mike Nolan has a 3-4 background, but I also believe some 4-3 mixed in as well.

It seems to me that switching schemes when the personnel aren't well adapted to it is a potentially big mistake. The Jets are a good example of how hard the change can be. I understand that Denver has a lot of holes and that some of their recent picks (e.g., Jarvis Moss) might be adapted to a 3-4 switch, but others less so. DJ Williams is probably the best player currently on their front 7, and he is 6-1 242# - not really the site (or temperment) to play 3-4 OLB. They could try moving him back inside to 3-4 WILB, but they have already spent a lot of time moving him around from ILB to OLB, which can really mess a player up. Jamie Winborn is 5-11" 230#, and Wesley Woodyard, whom they converted from S to OLB last year, is 6' 230# - more the speedy kind of OLBs for a Cover 2 scheme than the big OLBs suited to take on blockers in a 3-4 scheme. Tim Crower at 6'4" 275# is too small for an effective 3-4 DE. I could see Moss moving to 3-4 OLB and DJ Williams moving back inside, but it seems like they would have to rebuild their whole defense from scratch.

KC is even more perplexing to me. Glenn Dorsey at DT and Derrick Johnson at OLB are just not at all physically suited to the demands of a 3-4 defense. In addition, it is probably harder to find suitable 3-4 personnel at the DT, DE, and LB positions, and may take years to develop or convert, so it would seem to make a rebuilding job harder.

Mike Tomlin took over the Pittsburgh job coming from a 4-3 DC background, and there was speculation about whether he would try to convert Pittsburgh to a 4-3 team. He wisely left **** LeBeau and the defense alone, continuing to draft players such as Lamar Woodley who fit their existing scheme. I understand that KC and Denver are in much more of a rebuilding mode than Pittsburgh, but it still seems to me like this is not necessarily a recipe for success.

I don't yet know what KC is going to do, although I'm expecting Edwards to be fired. My point wasn't really a complaint or a panic, but it was about the bolded part in your quote, and the impact it's going to have on the 3 most talented 3-4 teams in the NFL: Patriots, Steelers, Chargers. Frankly, of the 3 teams, it's the Chargers who will likely feel the effects first, since Williams would seem to be the first of the 3-4 NTs to walk off into the sunset, but I still think it's going to be very interesting to watch the ramifications of these teams converting over from the 4-3.

One of the reasons that the Patriots have been able to stay at the top of the talent pile even while picking at the bottom of the rounds is that there's been very little competition for the 3-4 player. Or, to put it another way, you're damned lucky if you can find 1 top shelf 3-4 NT in a draft. With up to 8 teams possibly competing for such a player, a guy like Wilfork will see his worth and salary increase, and it will be extremely difficult for your favorite 3-4 team to find his replacement in the draft if they are picking in the teens or lower if there are more 3-4 teams scouring the colleges to find him.

One final observation that I should have made in the OP is that having all these teams playing the 3-4 is also going to mean having more coaches who develop in the 3-4 system, so it's entirely possible that the future will lead to even more 3-4 teams as those coaches branch out on their own.

 

[fair catch fryar]

I like to think Belichick isn't married to traditional formations and will throw players in whatever role he thinks will best stop an offense. With more defensive backs on the field, that would seem like a special purpose defense that would be better against a pass.

I believe Belichick wanted safeties to perform the Bob Sanders-type role of stuffing the run, therefore more physical at the line of scrimmage, but you would not need to change formations to do that. Your front seven are still the best defense against runs.

This would be good, except at the NFL level these types of players are hard to find and when they do play, you can almost be assured of an injury at some point of the season.

 

[MassPats38]

This would be good, except at the NFL level these types of players are hard to find and when they do play, you can almost be assured of an injury at some point of the season.

Agreed, since the prototype, Bob Sanders, himself cannot stay on the field for a full season.

 

[Deus Irae]

Do Denver have the linebackers to for any variant of it to be effective? The likes of D.J. Williams are better suited to a 4-3, sideline to sideline 'backers. Obviously he could come inside but is taking on guards his thing.

It could be a problem with more 3-4 teams but theres thousands of players out there, you just have to make sure you scout them an get them in before everyone else. Pats may end up having to pay more than they would like to too..

It's been very interesting to read the boards of the Chiefs and Broncos. A lot of the Broncos fans are basically saying "Hey, we sucked in the 4-3 so what can it hurt?" This column, with the terrible defensive numbers it shows, seems to explain why most of the Broncos fans I've read seem to have no problem with the idea of making the switch:

But really, there's nobody they need to build around on defense, no star that dictates what their style should be.

Last season, Denver finished 29th in yards allowed. They couldn't stop the run or pressure the passer, and Champ Bailey questioned their hearts after a 41-7 loss to the Patriots and McDaniels' high-powered offensive scheme at midseason.

It never got much better, and they allowed 52 points in their season finale at San Diego, where a win would have put them into the playoffs and perhaps saved Shanahan's job.

The Broncos managed 13 takeaways in 2008, the second-lowest total in the 30 years since the NFL expanded to a 16-game schedule, and they surrendered a league-worst 448 points. They went through six starting free safeties and a half-dozen linebackers, but Niko Koutouvides, last season's heralded free agent acquisition, wasn't one of them.

Most games, defensive linemen Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder, members of Shanahan's 2007 draft class, were sideline spectators, unable to push a pedestrian line for playing time.

It was these types of miscalculations in the draft and free agency that led to Denver's downfall -- a 24-24 record since reaching the 2005 AFC title game -- and, ultimately, to Shanahan's dismissal.

Broncos Forums - View Single Post - Nolan to be Broncos' Defensive Coordinator

 

[mayoclinic]

One of the reasons that the Patriots have been able to stay at the top of the talent pile even while picking at the bottom of the rounds is that there's been very little competition for the 3-4 player. Or, to put it another way, you're damned lucky if you can find 1 top shelf 3-4 NT in a draft. With up to 8 teams possibly competing for such a player, a guy like Wilfork will see his worth and salary increase, and it will be extremely difficult for your favorite 3-4 team to find his replacement in the draft if they are picking in the teens or lower if there are more 3-4 teams scouring the colleges to find him.

One final observation that I should have made in the OP is that having all these teams playing the 3-4 is also going to mean having more coaches who develop in the 3-4 system, so it's entirely possible that the future will lead to even more 3-4 teams as those coaches branch out on their own.

I would agree with your points, which is one reason that I could see us losing someone like Seymour after 2009. There are more lower tier teams with cap room playing the 3-4 who could be willing to throw an inflated contract offer at him. Denver fans are already inquiring about Jarvis Green on other boards, in case we should be unable to renegotiate his high cap hit and cut him this year. Mike Wright's value has probably gone up as well. We will need to be smarter than ever to stay ahead of everyone else, both in terms of keeping our key personnel and contuining to build through the draft.

Building the 3-4 obviously starts with the DL, and the DT is probably the single most key position. If Denver is serious about coverting to the 3-4 then I could easily see them drafting BJ Raji at #12 in the first, as he is the only high caliber potential 3-4 NT available. I could see them drafting players such as Tyson Jackson at #44 in the 2nd, and Jasper Brinkling at #76 in the 3rd. Bulk up Tim Crowder and you have a DL of Jackson-Raji-Crowder. Move DJ Williams back inside to SILB, convert Jarvis Moss to 3-4 OLB (where he is probably more suited than 4-3 DE anyway) and you have Moss-Williams-Brinkley-+1 at LB. Sign one UFA 3-4 OLB (Terrell Suggs or Karlos Dansby if they have a lot of money; Carlos Polk if they don't) and you have instant 3-4, at least for a start. Sign one more UFA 3-4 DE (Chris Canty) and suddenly you have a half-way respectable 3-4 defense. It will probably take years to tweak the players and get it just right, but I could see putting together an initial effort in that kind of way.

 

[Deus Irae]

I would agree with your points, which is one reason that I could see us losing someone like Seymour after 2009. There are more lower tier teams with cap room playing the 3-4 who could be willing to throw an inflated contract offer at him. Denver fans are already inquiring about Jarvis Green on other boards, in case we should be unable to renegotiate his high cap hit and cut him this year. Mike Wright's value has probably gone up as well. We will need to be smarter than ever to stay ahead of everyone else, both in terms of keeping our key personnel and contuining to build through the draft.

Building the 3-4 obviously starts with the DL, and the DT is probably the single most key position. If Denver is serious about coverting to the 3-4 then I could easily see them drafting BJ Raji at #12 in the first, as he is the only high caliber potential 3-4 NT available. I could see them drafting players such as Tyson Jackson at #44 in the 2nd, and Jasper Brinkling at #76 in the 3rd. Bulk up Tim Crowder and you have a DL of Jackson-Raji-Crowder. Move DJ Williams back inside to SILB, convert Jarvis Moss to 3-4 OLB (where he is probably more suited than 4-3 DE anyway) and you have Moss-Williams-Brinkley-+1 at LB. Sign one UFA 3-4 OLB (Terrell Suggs or Karlos Dansby if they have a lot of money; Carlos Polk if they don't) and you have instant 3-4, at least for a start. Sign one more UFA 3-4 DE (Chris Canty) and suddenly you have a half-way respectable 3-4 defense. It will probably take years to tweak the players and get it just right, but I could see putting together an initial effort in that kind of way.

And just to stay with the Broncos here for a moment for the cap room observation you made, the Broncos have about $41 million available, if this guy's numbers are correct:

Denver Broncos Wishlist For 2009 Offseason | Bleacher Report

That's a lot of cabbage to be tossing around at the Suggs/Scott types this year.

 

[mcsully]

Mangini switched to 3-4 and it ended up messing the team up more than it helped the Jets.

He also completely mortgaged their future by trading future picks and also spending huge money.

What draft picks did they trade for the future? Only one I can think of is Jenkins and he was playing up to all pro level for about 13 weeks (until his injury)

 

[Rob0729]

Here is the upside of all the teams going to the 3-4 defense. Here is a list of 2009 Free Agent LBs with actual 3-4 experience:

Terrell Suggs
Ray Lewis
Bart Scott
Karlos Dansby
Channing Crowder
Eric Barton
Monty Beisel
Dan Cody
Andra Davis
James Farrior
Larry Izzo
Willie McGinest
Cody Spencer
Zach Thomas
Jonathan Vilma

Earlier this decade, the list of free agent LBs with 3-4 experience might have been 1-2 players at most and the free agent available could be a Patriots' free agent. There are definite upsides to a lot of teams going to the 3-4. The biggest of which is that the Pats do not have to acquire players with no 3-4 experience and try to get them to learn the position.

 

[stinkypete]

McDaniels might want to take a closer look at Denver's defensive personnel before he commits to a switch to the 3-4. Who is going to play the nose? Dewayne Robertson? Their highest upside players, Jarvis Moss, Elvis Dumervil and Tim Crowder, will have to be conversion projects at linebacker. DJ Williams is undersized to play a 3-4 ILB.

Denver has a high powered offense built around young, improving players. I don't think McDaniels was hired to undergo a 2 year defensive rebuilding. I think a switch to the 3-4 is a bad idea.

 

[Deus Irae]

Here is the upside of all the teams going to the 3-4 defense. Here is a list of 2009 Free Agent LBs with actual 3-4 experience:

Terrell Suggs
Ray Lewis
Bart Scott
Karlos Dansby
Channing Crowder
Eric Barton
Monty Beisel
Dan Cody
Andra Davis
James Farrior
Larry Izzo
Willie McGinest
Cody Spencer
Zach Thomas
Jonathan Vilma

Earlier this decade, the list of free agent LBs with 3-4 experience might have been 1-2 players at most and the free agent available could be a Patriots' free agent. There are definite upsides to a lot of teams going to the 3-4. The biggest of which is that the Pats do not have to acquire players with no 3-4 experience and try to get them to learn the position.

Take a good, long look at that list. Now, find the players that are

A.) within the right price range

B.) talented enough to be worth the effort in the 3-4 (Vilma flamed out, for example)

c.) young enough to be more than a stop gap

The list then shrinks noticeably

Terrell Suggs
Ray Lewis
Bart Scott
Karlos Dansby
Channing Crowder
Eric Barton (backup)
James Farrior
Cody Spencer (backup)


So, that would come out to less than 1 'worthwhile' starting 3-4 player per team and a couple of backups, and that's including a 34 year old Farrior and a 33 year old Lewis. That's also without me eliminating players due to price. The rest have either failed in the 3-4, are STers, or are just past it.

 

[Scouse Patriot]

It's been very interesting to read the boards of the Chiefs and Broncos. A lot of the Broncos fans are basically saying "Hey, we sucked in the 4-3 so what can it hurt?" This column, with the terrible defensive numbers it shows, seems to explain why most of the Broncos fans I've read seem to have no problem with the idea of making the switch:



Broncos Forums - View Single Post - Nolan to be Broncos' Defensive Coordinator

Reading that and other articles and stats I'd be open to change too, but it's the personnel that is a massive question mark as we know so it'll be interesting to see what happens. I highlighted D.J Williams because he doesn't really fit but a star guy on D so he's going to have to accept and learn a completely new role. The estimated cap space you posted though is a massive plus and more than likely a big reason for deciding to make the transition, plus the fact if players coming to the end of their deals do come out into free agency, the class of '09 is potentially stacked with talent.

 

[TripleOption]

Consistent with my understanding, but I was trying to translate the 3-3-2 reference as I had never heard of it (other than noting the numbers don't add up).

My response was an attempt to answer the 3-3-2 question, the link calling a 3-3-2 a 33 stack I now see is for 8-man football (which explains why the diagram looked incomplete). In fact, every reference to that defense I can see is to 8-man football. If it applies to 11-man football, I'm not seeing it.

There is no such thing as a "3-3-2". There is a 3-3 Stack, which is a variant of the 5-3 Defense, also called a 3-3-5 or 3-5-3 depending on personnel. It is also called the "Odd Stack" defense.

 

[unoriginal]

The Jets could switch back to the 4-3 or even the 4-6 if Rex Ryan is hired as head coach. The Broncos and Jets could negate themselves.

Rex Ryan loves his father's 4-6 and if he gets the job, he may move the Jets to that formation once he has final say over all philosophies. He pushed for it to be implemented under Billick.

He runs it now, but he has been fighting to implement the 4-6 for years. He is a huge proponent of the defense and even written a book on it.

Please stop calling it the 4-6! You'll mislead folks who've never seen it before into assuming it puts 10 players in the box, or 6 linebackers on the field, or something ridiculous.

"46". Forty-six.

 

[slash83]

Please stop calling it the 4-6! You'll mislead folks who've never seen it before into assuming it puts 10 players in the box, or 6 linebackers on the field, or something ridiculous.

"46". Forty-six.

LMAO you tell em!

 

[Rob0729]

Take a good, long look at that list. Now, find the players that are

A.) within the right price range

B.) talented enough to be worth the effort in the 3-4 (Vilma flamed out, for example)

c.) young enough to be more than a stop gap

The list then shrinks noticeably

Terrell Suggs
Ray Lewis
Bart Scott
Karlos Dansby
Channing Crowder
Eric Barton (backup)
James Farrior
Cody Spencer (backup)


So, that would come out to less than 1 'worthwhile' starting 3-4 player per team and a couple of backups, and that's including a 34 year old Farrior and a 33 year old Lewis. That's also without me eliminating players due to price. The rest have either failed in the 3-4, are STers, or are just past it.

When did Barton become a back up? If he was back up, the Pats should grab him. The guy had 9 less tackles than Mayo had this year. Barton is a starter.

Besides, the Pats have done well taking other teams' back ups in the past and making them solid to outstanding starters. Vrabel at LB was one of those guys. Also, the Pats have also gotten to Super Bowls with solid play by stop gap older players (Washington, Traylor, Otis, etc.).

Andra Davis is only 30. He isn't a five year solution, but he can be more than a stop gap. He is the same age AD was when he became a Patriot.

Again, five years ago, you were lucky to find one or two LBs with 3-4 experience. Now you listed 8 players worth getting. Adra Davis is 9. That is a lot. Many teams that run the 3-4 have a lot of priorities beside LB and may not make getting a LB a priority anyway. The Broncos need d-line help as much as they need LBs, probably more so. The Browns need about 11 new starters on defense. The Chargers are set at LB. The Steelers are probably too. Neither will be active in free agency either. The Ravens will need to be active, but they could switch defense depending on who is their DC after Rex Ryan leaves. The Jets are set at three of the four LB positions and could be set at the fourth if they resign Barton.

So, the competition for LB may not be as great as you think it is.

 

[Rob0729]

Please stop calling it the 4-6! You'll mislead folks who've never seen it before into assuming it puts 10 players in the box, or 6 linebackers on the field, or something ridiculous.

"46". Forty-six.

Sorry, my bad. I am just so used to listing defenses with a hyphen. I even use a hyphen with the Tampa-2 a lot (or if I call it the Cover-2).

 

[Deus Irae]

When did Barton become a back up? If he was back up, the Pats should grab him. The guy had 9 less tackles than Mayo had this year. Barton is a starter.

Besides, the Pats have done well taking other teams' back ups in the past and making them solid to outstanding starters. Vrabel at LB was one of those guys. Also, the Pats have also gotten to Super Bowls with solid play by stop gap older players (Washington, Traylor, Otis, etc.).

Andra Davis is only 30. He isn't a five year solution, but he can be more than a stop gap. He is the same age AD was when he became a Patriot.

Again, five years ago, you were lucky to find one or two LBs with 3-4 experience. Now you listed 8 players worth getting. Adra Davis is 9. That is a lot. Many teams that run the 3-4 have a lot of priorities beside LB and may not make getting a LB a priority anyway. The Broncos need d-line help as much as they need LBs, probably more so. The Browns need about 11 new starters on defense. The Chargers are set at LB. The Steelers are probably too. Neither will be active in free agency either. The Ravens will need to be active, but they could switch defense depending on who is their DC after Rex Ryan leaves. The Jets are set at three of the four LB positions and could be set at the fourth if they resign Barton.

So, the competition for LB may not be as great as you think it is.

I watched Barton and Davis play. I'm quite comfortable with the way I ranked them. And the reason that 3 of the players are even on this list is because they are coming from the same team which will either re-sign them or need 3 new linebackers. I'm sorry, but your assertion just doesn't hold up.