You have an interesting theory with not much to support it other than Meyer's continued talk about coaching at ND after his kids are done with school. I am still willing to wager money the guy will be in Florida at least until his middle child graduates. He seems to put a lot of emphasis on family and I doubt he will uproot his family while one of his children are in mid-high school careers.
Also, ND was only 2 years removed from being ranked 4th in the country with a 10-2 record and even beat Michigan when Meyer turned them down. Besides I don't know if it was a great strategic decision to go to Florida under the shadow of Steve Spurrier success. Even though a few years had passed since Spurrier left, Meyer was constantly held up to comparisons to Spurrier early in his tenure and if he didn't have the massive success he has had, he would have probably taken a huge hit to his reputation. Considering it was nearly a decade since the Gators played in a title game and coming off back to back average seasons, there was no guarantee he would have brought the team back to Bowl greatness.
As for recruiting, 85 players on his 2008 roster were from Florida. Only 22 were were from outside of Florida and most of them were from Georgia which is only a one or two hour flight from Gainesville. Most of the Florida players are from Northern Florida like Gainesville, Ocala, Tampa, Winter Park, and Orlando. Even Southern Florida is a one to two hour plane flight. So most of his recruiting can be done in day trips even if it requires flying.
University of Florida Athletics ***GatorZone.com***
I still see Meyer playing out the contract. When Tebow leaves, he will have John Brantley to take over who was one of the hottest QB prospects two years ago.
When comparing Florida to Notre Dame, I was referring to a greater probability of success because of the quality of athlete.
Better players come to Florida because of admissions. Steve Spurrier leaves Florida, goes to South Carolina, and they are getting trounced these days. I'm betting he wishes he had stayed. That doesn't mean just anyone could coach Florida, not at all. But the probability of success is greater.
We're getting very different numbers as to where he recruits from.
You counted 85 players from Florida. But a good chunk of those players weren't recruited with scholarships. At every school, walk-ons will be from the local area. Why? Because in-state tuition is cheaper than out-of-state tuition, especially at a public school like Florida as opposed to a private school like Notre Dame which has only one set tuition (and therefore, many many fewer walk-ons). Your link there showed over 120 players, and we know at any given time, a school only has 80-85 scholarship players, so about 40 of those Florida kids are not scholarship kids but walk-ons. Also, I counted more than 22 kids on that list. I counted 36 kids from out of state.
Presumably, they are not walk-ons since an out of state student spends more than $20,000 to attend Florida on tuition alone, not counting room & board.
So, the number of out of state players versus Florida players is roughly half-and-half. Even taking the Georgia kids out of that, that's still 29 players of the 80 or so from a long distance away.
Plus, consider, Florida had four out of state kids transfer out before the season (they are no longer listed on the roster). That happens at every school. The in-state kids are likelier to stay at every school. But, Meyer still had to go through the trouble of recruiting those kids who eventually transferred out.
That's why I think the commit lists at Scout.com or Rivals.com will be more telling in how a coach recruits, because you get to see who is getting scholarships, and it takes all the statistical noise from walk-ons and transfers out of it.
Here's a real easy way to measure this:
MapGameDay.com - National College Football Recruiting Map
9 of the 20 players are from within a 6 hour drive of South Bend.
MapGameDay.com - National College Football Recruiting Map
10 of 22 players are from with a 6 hour drive of Gainesville.
This is why I don't buy the argument that Notre Dame recruits more nationally than Florida does. ND has always been a school that takes half of its players from the midwest.
