Felger will love this: CHFF calls Moss the 2008 Patriots MVP

[Deus Irae]

Correlation does not equal causation.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Correlation does not equal causation.

When Moss draws double/triple coverage and Welker occupies the now vacant area, that is causation, not correlation.

Go on NFL.com and watch all the Welker highlight videos. On MANY of his receptions, you will see that it is often Moss that opens up the field for him.

NFL Video Galleries
Moss brings the CB and SS with him (getting physical with the SS) letting Welker get 1 on 1 over the middle against a LB.

NFL Video Galleries
First play he is 1 on 1, easy beat on the hook.
0:50 in, 3rd and 3, Welker and Moss bunched up on the right, Moss clears out the CB and FS, leaving Welker WIDE open on a short hook.
1:00, FS cheats in, leaving Welker 1 on 1 to make a good catch, but keep in mind that Moss was also wide open on the other side of the field as well.
1:30, again you have two guys covering Moss on the right while the Safety in a middle left zone cheats towards Moss, leaving Welker open underneath.

I could do this all day. Welker is the best Slot WR in the NFL. He is great at finding the holes and YAC, but he gets a TON of help from Moss's ability to clear the field.

 

[Deus Irae]

When Moss draws double/triple coverage and Welker occupies the now vacant area, that is causation, not correlation.

Go on NFL.com and watch all the Welker highlight videos. On MANY of his receptions, you will see that it is often Moss that opens up the field for him.

NFL Video Galleries
Moss brings the CB and SS with him (getting physical with the SS) letting Welker get 1 on 1 over the middle against a LB.

NFL Video Galleries
First play he is 1 on 1, easy beat on the hook.
0:50 in, 3rd and 3, Welker and Moss bunched up on the right, Moss clears out the CB and FS, leaving Welker WIDE open on a short hook.
1:10, FS cheats in, leaving Welker 1 on 1 to make a good catch, but keep in mind that Moss was also wide open on the other side of the field as well.
1:30, again you have two guys covering Moss on the right while the Safety in a middle left zone cheats towards Moss, leaving Welker open underneath.

I could do this all day. Welker is the best Slot WR in the NFL. He is great at finding the holes and YAC, but he gets a TON of help from Moss's ability to clear the field.

I've watched. You're wrong. Your numbers are off.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Correlation does not equal causation.

What's your point? I took college-level statistics, too, so I understand where you're coming from, but I don't see how it applies to Moss's value to the Patriots. Can you give an explanation for why he is the only player to start on the top 2 offenses in NFL history without him being a major cause? I really, really doubt it.

This is kind of a pet peeve of mine, actually. It is true that correlation does not equal causation. Causation, however, does cause correlation, and in cases like this it is pretty straightforward and common sense to determine that Moss' s presence on the roster and offenses being historically good is a relationship of causation. How else would you characterize the correlation?

 

[BradyFTW!]

I've watched. You're wrong. Your numbers are off.

Be more specific. How is he wrong on the first play? Are you arguing that Moss isn't being doubled, or that Welker isn't being covered by a linebacker? Because Satch is pretty obviously right on both counts. Or are you disputing what he said on one of the other plays? Either way, if you want to be taken seriously you're going to have to actually give examples, like he did.

For the second link:
First play: Welker is being covered one on one (by a linebacker, by the looks of it). The help doesn't come up until well after he's caught the ball.
Second play: once again, Satch is right on the money. Welker makes it 8 yards upfield without being touched, simply because nobody is even close to him.
Fourth Play: Welker ends up being covered by Lofa Tatupu underneath. Lofa can't keep up with him, obviously.

I don't think anyone here is denying that Welker is an awesome player in his own right, but it's just ridiculous to try to claim that Moss doesn't make him far more effective.

 

[Satchboogie3]

1 question answers it. When you are in the redzone and you NEED a TD, who do you look for? Moss.

I'm not trying to say Welker sucks or anything. He is a tremendous player, but we are talking about possibly the greatest WR to ever play the game (Moss). It's a no brainer.

 

[Deus Irae]

What's your point? I took college-level statistics, too, so I understand where you're coming from, but I don't see how it applies to Moss's value to the Patriots. Can you give an explanation for why he is the only player to start on the top 2 offenses in NFL history without him being a major cause? I really, really doubt it.

This is kind of a pet peeve of mine, actually. It is true that correlation does not equal causation. Causation, however, does cause correlation, and in cases like this it is pretty straightforward and common sense to determine that Moss' s presence on the roster and offenses being historically good is a relationship of causation. How else would you characterize the correlation?

It's still a truism. Furthermore, Moss has been featured with other truly great players when he's been a part of those high scoring seasons, and it's not as if he's been a part of every one of the top 10 offenses in NFL history or anything. The 2004 Colts put up plenty of points without him, for example.

Not only that, but not only does correlation not equal causation, major cause does not equal MVP.

 

[Deus Irae]

1 question answers it. When you are in the redzone and you NEED a TD, who do you look for? Moss.

I'm not trying to say Welker sucks or anything. He is a tremendous player, but we are talking about possibly the greatest WR to ever play the game (Moss). It's a no brainer.

Lob pass in the endzone recipient does not equal MVP either. I could just as easily point out that Welker is the league leader in receptions and claim that "answers it". Welker also has more receiving yards and returns punts.

 

[BradyFTW!]

It's still a truism. Furthermore, Moss has been featured with other truly great players when he's been a part of those high scoring seasons, and it's not as if he's been a part of every one of the top 10 offenses in NFL history or anything. The 2004 Colts put up plenty of points without him, for example.

Not only that, but not only does correlation not equal causation, major cause does not equal MVP.

Yes, there were other really good players on the top 2 scoring offenses in NFL history (that should go without saying...), but Moss AVERAGED 20 TDs in those seasons. Are you seriously going to claim that he isn't both the common denominator and pretty obviously a core part of both offenses? Because if that's what you're trying to say, then there's really no room left for discussion.

As a side note, the 1998 Vikings offense had Randall Cunningham, Robert Smith, Cris Carter, Jake Reed, and a talented offensive line. Talented players, yes, but Carter and Moss are the only two who have any shot whatsoever of making the HOF. So, for the 1998 Vikings, he had exactly one other 'truly great' player helping him out. He was a rookie, and he was already the most important player on the highest scoring offense in NFL history.

The fact that he didn't play on offenses 3-10 in top scoring means absolutely nothing. Nobody appeared on all ten, so, by that criteria, there has never been a truly great offensive player in the history of the NFL. Thanks for clearing that up for us.

So yes, in this case, major cause most definitely does equal MVP. Unless you think that it's pure coincidence that Moss has a history of consistently raising the performance of the QBs and WRs around him to HOF levels, levels that they do not and cannot attain without him.

 

[Deus Irae]

Be more specific. How is he wrong on the first play? Are you arguing that Moss isn't being doubled, or that Welker isn't being covered by a linebacker? Because Satch is pretty obviously right on both counts. Or are you disputing what he said on one of the other plays? Either way, if you want to be taken seriously you're going to have to actually give examples, like he did.

For the second link:
First play: Welker is being covered one on one (by a linebacker, by the looks of it). The help doesn't come up until well after he's caught the ball.
Second play: once again, Satch is right on the money. Welker makes it 8 yards upfield without being touched, simply because nobody is even close to him.
Fourth Play: Welker ends up being covered by Lofa Tatupu underneath. Lofa can't keep up with him, obviously.

I don't think anyone here is denying that Welker is an awesome player in his own right, but it's just ridiculous to try to claim that Moss doesn't make him far more effective.

I wasn't pointing to his cherry picked examples. I was referring to the entirety of the season.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I wasn't pointing to his cherry picked examples. I was referring to the entirety of the season.

He stated that he could keep posting examples all day. If you don't believe him, call him on it

 

[Satchboogie3]

Lob pass in the endzone recipient does not equal MVP either. I could just as easily point out that Welker is the league leader in receptions and claim that "answers it". Welker also has more receiving yards and returns punts.

There are soooo many things wrong with this that I don't even know where to begin... but I will.

First, you said "lob pass in the endzone". Right there you basically just said all the QB has to do is just lob the ball up in the endzone and Moss will come down with it... that would mean Moss basically did all the work and is basically uncoverable in the endzone. Thats right!

Second, ["I could just as easily point out that Welker is the league leader in receptions and claim that "answers it"". ] The point of the offense is to SCORE points. That is correct, yes? So would it make sense that the most important player would be the one who is able to actually SCORE points? You don't get points for the number of receptions you have or yards you get, you get points for scoring TDs. Also, Moss is close to Wes in yards, yet he has a ton fewer receptions...

Really, though, I can't stress enough the fact that SCORING is the point of an offense, and that is where Moss is absolutely lethal.

And just for the record, a slot receiver has a FAR easier job getting open than a #1 WR.

 

[Satchboogie3]

I wasn't pointing to his cherry picked examples. I was referring to the entirety of the season.

Cherry picking? I just went to the NFL videos section and grabbed the highlights from the last 2 games...

Do you honestly need me to go through all the footage this season and break it down?

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, there were other really good players on the top 2 scoring offenses in NFL history (that should go without saying...), but Moss AVERAGED 20 TDs in those seasons. Are you seriously going to claim that he isn't both the common denominator and pretty obviously a core part of both offenses? Because if that's what you're trying to say, then there's really no room left for discussion.

Who cares how many touchdowns he averaged? Moss was the best player on the Vikings, but that team was loaded with offensive talent. He was not even the best player on the Patriots. Again, correlation does not equal causation, which the league recognized when it made Brady the MVP and not Moss.

The fact that he didn't play on offenses 3-10 in top scoring means absolutely nothing. Nobody appeared on all ten, so, by that criteria, there has never been a truly great offensive player in the history of the NFL. Thanks for clearing that up for us.

The Colts year alone kills your argument. The rest are just gravy.

So yes, in this case, major cause most definitely does equal MVP. Unless you think that it's pure coincidence that Moss has a history of consistently raising the performance of the QBs and WRs around him to HOF levels, levels that they do not and cannot attain without him.

No, it doesn't "most definitely" equal MVP. One could well argue that Welker, Wilfork, Faulk or Cassel is the MVP. As a matter of fact, people could probably make a reasonably fair argument for Mayo as MVP, given the devastation that's happened in the linebacking corps and his play under such circumstances.

 

[Deus Irae]

Cherry picking? I just went to the NFL videos section and grabbed the highlights from the last 2 games...

Do you honestly need me to go through all the footage this season and break it down?

No need. I already know your numbers are off, as well as your assumptions.

 

[Satchboogie3]

No need. I already know your numbers are off, as well as your assumptions.

What numbers? Any football fan with half a brain realizes that Moss opens up the field for the other receivers. Most teams have to plan around him, taking him out of the game being their #1 priority.

Seriously though, what numbers? I agree that you can make strong arguments for Cassel, Mayo, Wilfork, etc as the team MVP, but I think it is much harder to make an argument for Welker over Moss.

And just some numbers for you:
Moss: 68 rec 995 yds 14.6 avg 11TD 1TD/6.2 rec 1st% 66.2
Welker: 109 rec 1,139 yds 10.4 avg 3TD 1TD/36.3 rec 1st% 50.5

Welker has been a work horse this year, but the only thing he really has significantly over Moss is receptions. Also take into consideration the fact that Cassel had trouble hooking up with Moss on deep routes earlier in the year. Moss could and probably should have more like 1200yds receiving right now... but heck, he is still close to Welker in receiving yards.

The important stats though, Moss dominates. 14.6 yds/carry, more than 4 yards more than Welker. 8 more touchdowns and an amazing 1TD for every 6.2 receptions.

Another interesting stat is that Moss has a higher 1st down % than Welker, having 45 first downs in 68 receptions, as to Welkers 55 in 109 receptions.

Also, what assumptions am I making? I've shown facts and examples that back up my assertion, yet you have not.

So really, what numbers are you talking about?

 

[SpiderFox53]

Deus,

What's up with you? You're usually a much better poster than this from what I've seen. Satch and others have stated thier opinions and provided evidence to support those opinions and all you've done is say they're wrong as if you are the final arbiter.

Provide some evidence for your opinion man.


Your one argument of Moss not being on top offenses 3-10 has absolutely nothing to do with the topic at hand. All that stat proves is there are other players in the league besides Moss that know how to play and score points.

 

[ikeman20]

I've watched. You're wrong. Your numbers are off.

what a shocker!!!

 

[ikeman20]

What numbers? Any football fan with half a brain realizes that Moss opens up the field for the other receivers. Most teams have to plan around him, taking him out of the game being their #1 priority.

Seriously though, what numbers? I agree that you can make strong arguments for Cassel, Mayo, Wilfork, etc as the team MVP, but I think it is much harder to make an argument for Welker over Moss.

And just some numbers for you:
Moss: 68 rec 995 yds 14.6 avg 11TD 1TD/6.2 rec 1st% 66.2
Welker: 109 rec 1,139 yds 10.4 avg 3TD 1TD/36.3 rec 1st% 50.5

Welker has been a work horse this year, but the only thing he really has significantly over Moss is receptions. Also take into consideration the fact that Cassel had trouble hooking up with Moss on deep routes earlier in the year. Moss could and probably should have more like 1200yds receiving right now... but heck, he is still close to Welker in receiving yards.

The important stats though, Moss dominates. 14.6 yds/carry, more than 4 yards more than Welker. 8 more touchdowns and an amazing 1TD for every 6.2 receptions.

Another interesting stat is that Moss has a higher 1st down % than Welker, having 45 first downs in 68 receptions, as to Welkers 55 in 109 receptions.

Also, what assumptions am I making? I've shown facts and examples that back up my assertion, yet you have not.

So really, what numbers are you talking about?

Trust me, he knows u got him. But watch him keep dancing around because he just can't concede.

 

[unoriginal]

Oddly enough, many of Moss' long receptions have come after we've run (or Welker'd, as the case may be) the ball a bunch of times. I'd have to say, looking at the reception and yards totals, the threat of Wes Welker really shortens the field for Mr. Randy Moss.

And I'd be more comfortable calling Moss our MVP if I saw him contest jump balls more frequently, instead of trying to basket-catch everything.