Injuries in terms of lost cap space - what are the Patriots really playing with?

[JoeSixPat]

In trying to quantify how much heart this team has, demonstrating the significant injuries they've overcome to have accomplished all they have thus far (and hopefully make the playoffs) it seemed to me that one might assess the relative amount lost from the team salary cap to quantify all the players who have lost significant playing time.

Brady and AD alone account for $20 million. With all the other players lost to IR and losing signficant game time it wouldn't surprise me if one could come up with another $15-20 million in the salary cap equivilent of player time lost.

Assuming that's correct, that's like the Pats playing with a salary cap of $85 million - 1/3rd less than the other teams, depending on how you do the math (i.e. what portion of the cap hit to assess for those lost for a portion of the season, whether on IR or not)

Anyone feel like doing the math? I'd be interested in seeing how this shakes out.

 

[sieglo]

In trying to quantify how much heart this team has, demonstrating the significant injuries they've overcome to have accomplished all they have thus far (and hopefully make the playoffs) it seemed to me that one might assess the relative amount lost from the team salary cap to quantify all the players who have lost significant playing time.

Brady and AD alone account for $20 million. With all the other players lost to IR and losing signficant game time it wouldn't surprise me if one could come up with another $15-20 million in the salary cap equivilent of player time lost.

Assuming that's correct, that's like the Pats playing with a salary cap of $85 million - 1/3rd less than the other teams, depending on how you do the math (i.e. what portion of the cap hit to assess for those lost for a portion of the season, whether on IR or not)

Anyone feel like doing the math? I'd be interested in seeing how this shakes out.

I'm not interested in doing the math, but this is a very interesting way to look at this. Hopefully someone like Cold Hard Football Facts will discover the idea and run with it.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

In trying to quantify how much heart this team has, demonstrating the significant injuries they've overcome to have accomplished all they have thus far (and hopefully make the playoffs) it seemed to me that one might assess the relative amount lost from the team salary cap to quantify all the players who have lost significant playing time.

Brady and AD alone account for $20 million. With all the other players lost to IR and losing signficant game time it wouldn't surprise me if one could come up with another $15-20 million in the salary cap equivilent of player time lost.

Assuming that's correct, that's like the Pats playing with a salary cap of $85 million - 1/3rd less than the other teams, depending on how you do the math (i.e. what portion of the cap hit to assess for those lost for a portion of the season, whether on IR or not)

Anyone feel like doing the math? I'd be interested in seeing how this shakes out.

In about the time you took to post this a calculator and Miguel's page here would yield the answer.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

In about the time you took to post this a calculator and Miguel's page here would yield the answer.

By itself would be a pretty irrelevant number. Would need to do it 31 more times to come up with anything meaningful.

 

[JoeSixPat]

In about the time you took to post this a calculator and Miguel's page here would yield the answer.

Unless you advocate adding in someone's entire cap hit for missing just one game, its a little bit more complicated than adding up players on Miguel's page.

How many games did AD miss, Ty Warren, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, Maroney, etc?

What percentage of their cap should we subtract for missed time? What percentage of the overall salary cap is that, and where does that leave us as a "real" cap figure?

I don't think anyone disputes that the Patriots have been hit harder with more injuries at the most significant positions - which is why I'm not all that concerned about comparing the Pats to other teams. I'm just interested in seeing how we compare to our own fully healthy cap.

 

[spacecrime]

You don't lose money if a vet goes on IR. If he is on the opening day roster, his salary for the year is guaranteed.

So his money is gone, whether he plays, is active or inactive, or goes on IR.

The cost to a team's cap for a guy going on IR is what you have to pay FOR HIS REPLACEMENT. That is the cost of a player going on IR. The available cap is lowered, not by the guy on IR, but by the guy you are paying to replace him.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

You don't lose money if a vet goes on IR. If he is on the opening day roster, his salary for the year is guaranteed.

So his money is gone, whether he plays, is active or inactive, or goes on IR.

The cost to a team's cap for a guy going on IR is what you have to pay FOR HIS REPLACEMENT. That is the cost of a player going on IR. The available cap is lowered, not by the guy on IR, but by the guy you are paying to replace him.

What you say is true. But FANS like to play the my team is more injured than your team game. "We are 10-6, but only because Brady is injured" "Indy started out slow because of pre-season injuries to Saturday" etc.

Generally most fans overvalue their own teams injuries and what their team did to manage thru it while undervaluing other teams injuries.

There are several objective measures one could use to measure which team is more injured. Such as number of players on IR, number of players injured, number of unique starters in a season. Problem with all of those is they tend to consider an injury to Pierre Woods the same way they do an injury to Tom Brady.

If you were to aggregate the amount of dead money "wasted" on player not playing because of injuries and compare it from team to team you would get a good idea of actually how hurt the team is. This of course assumes that all players are paid according to their worth which we know is not true.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Jamarcus Russell's hangnails would kill this premise in no time.

 

[DaBruinz]

By itself would be a pretty irrelevant number. Would need to do it 31 more times to come up with anything meaningful.

Actually, I disagree. You could easily take the amount that the Patriots have lost (its more than any other team in the league) and ask yourself, what other team could put up a winning record the way the Patriots have while having XX% of their salary cap not in use.

The Patriots have $28887019 tied up by players who are on the IR. Yet, they still are competitive and in the hunt for play-off spot.

 

[JoeSixPat]

You don't lose money if a vet goes on IR. If he is on the opening day roster, his salary for the year is guaranteed.

So his money is gone, whether he plays, is active or inactive, or goes on IR.

The cost to a team's cap for a guy going on IR is what you have to pay FOR HIS REPLACEMENT. That is the cost of a player going on IR. The available cap is lowered, not by the guy on IR, but by the guy you are paying to replace him.

Yes - we understand this - but that's got nothing to do with the intended point of this thread.

The point is we have lost players with signficant value - as represented by the salary cap. We're in effect playing with a lower cap compared to other more healthy teams.

Actually, I disagree. You could easily take the amount that the Patriots have lost (its more than any other team in the league) and ask yourself, what other team could put up a winning record the way the Patriots have while having XX% of their salary cap not in use.

The Patriots have $28887019 tied up by players who are on the IR. Yet, they still are competitive and in the hunt for play-off spot.

THAT'S the point of the thread

And that's JUST the IR - not inclidomg the players who have been lost for key games.

And while, yes, every team has injuries, the salary cap does actually give you a good guage for how vital they are deemed to the team - all injuries are not created equal and losing your QB compared to a Special Teamer isn't comparable.

A salary cap comparison gives some indication of the handicap that the Patriots have endured, even as they produce a very respectable season.

 

[spacecrime]

The point is we have lost players with signficant value - as represented by the salary cap. We're in effect playing with a lower cap compared to other more healthy teams.

No, we are not. This is something I'd expect to hear from Jets or Charger fans.

What's next? We are at a disadvantage because we don't all our draft picks from the last five years on the team?

We are at a disadvantage because we signed a FA and he isn't worth the money?

We are at a disadvantage because club seat people stay inside and don't make noise?

How about this: We are at a disadvantage because our defense blows.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Actually, I disagree. You could easily take the amount that the Patriots have lost (its more than any other team in the league) and ask yourself, what other team could put up a winning record the way the Patriots have while having XX% of their salary cap not in use.

The Patriots have $28887019 tied up by players who are on the IR. Yet, they still are competitive and in the hunt for play-off spot.

Which is meaningless if that is not far off the mark from what other teams have. You can't just say, "boohoo we have injured players" without accounting for the fact every team has players who missed games and are on IR. Now if you can state factually by running the numbers on every other team that our number is significantly higher, it is meaningful, but the number by itself is not.

 

[alamo]

You don't lose money if a vet goes on IR. If he is on the opening day roster, his salary for the year is guaranteed.

That's not completely true. If a player is released it is up to the player to ask for the remaining money, and he can only do so once in his career. Besides, you are confusing "going on IR" with "being released", all players vet or not get paid while on IR. Only if they are released off of IR with an injury settlement does the guarantee come into play.

The cost to a team's cap for a guy going on IR is what you have to pay FOR HIS REPLACEMENT.

As others have explained, you miss the point of this calculation. As I see it this calculation is useful as a measure (however inexact) of how much injuries have affected the team, the cost of the replacement doesn't mean nearly as much in this regard.

 

[Miguel]

Unless you advocate adding in someone's entire cap hit for missing just one game

which is why I no longer even attempt to do this type of calculation on my page.

Does one prorate a roster bonus??
LTBE incentives???

Football is a violent game. Players will miss games because of injuries.

 

[JoeSixPat]

No, we are not. This is something I'd expect to hear from Jets or Charger fans.

What's next? We are at a disadvantage because we don't all our draft picks from the last five years on the team?

We are at a disadvantage because we signed a FA and he isn't worth the money?

We are at a disadvantage because club seat people stay inside and don't make noise?

How about this: We are at a disadvantage because our defense blows.

Let me try to make this simple.

Let's say, hypothetically, Team A loses their starting QB. Let's say he's a pivotal player on the team and the salary cap reflects this, deeming his cap hit value to be, say $14.5 million.

Now let's say Team B loses a player from its special teams coverage squad - a good player but deemed worth $500,000 on the cap.

Would you say that Team A has incurred a more significant loss than Team B? Would you say that Team A, in losing a starting QB is placed at a strategic disadvantage compared to Team B, that retains its most important and high priced players?

Would you say that Team A has more to overcome in player losses than Team B? Would you acknowledge that draft picks, free agency or crowd noise have NO relevance to the above scenario?

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Let me try to make this simple.

Let's say, hypothetically, Team A loses their starting QB. Let's say he's a pivotal player on the team and the salary cap reflects this, deeming his cap hit value to be, say $14.5 million.

Now let's say Team B loses a player from its special teams coverage squad - a good player but deemed worth $500,000 on the cap.

Would you say that Team A has incurred a more significant loss than Team B? Would you say that Team A, in losing a starting QB is placed at a strategic disadvantage compared to Team B, that retains its most important and high priced players?

Can you understand that there's NO relevance in the above scenario to crowd noise?

I would agree. But without knowing the hit to the other 31 teams hits and what % other teams have lost in past years, this "boohoo we are playing with a lower effective cap" is utter BS because every team is playing with a lower % cap.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I would agree. But without knowing the hit to the other 31 teams hits and what % other teams have lost in past years, this "boohoo we are playing with a lower effective cap" is utter BS because every team is playing with a lower % cap.

I'm not an expert on every other teams injury list, but I don't think anyone would question that the Patriots have been hit harder with more, and more signficant injuries, than any other team vying for the playoffs in the NFL this season. I expect a salary cap analysis would reflect this.

Does this really need to be proven?

Which other team vying for the playoffs lost its starting QB for the season, as well as its starting RB soon after?

Given the notion that the Pats HAVE suffered more injuries than any other playoff contenting team, I'm not quite sure I understand everyone's inability to understand how the salary cap values those lost players would be reflective of just what an incredible - even improbable - season we've had.

 

[spacecrime]

Besides, you are confusing "going on IR" with "being released", all players vet or not get paid while on IR.

You are correct. Not sure what I was thinking there, to mishmash the two together like that.