Wes Welker, MVP candidate?

[BradyManny]

Reiss fields an interesting question in this week's mailbag

Shouldn't Wes Welker be in the consideration for MVP? There isn't one player who has been more consistent (at least six catches in 13 of 14 games) and more valuable to his team (second in NFL in receptions and first in YAC among receivers with more than 50 receptions) this year. Your thoughts?
Sam

A: Sam, I do think Welker is a viable MVP candidate, but a lot will depend on if the Patriots make the playoffs because a lot of times, in my mind, that highlights a player's value further ("he helped lead his team to the playoffs"). I personally have tremendous respect for Welker and the way he goes about his business. If he was more of a self-promoter, I think you'd hear his name in the discussion a bit more, and chatted about more on cable programs that can sway public opinion. Those who have watched the Patriots transition from Tom Brady to Matt Cassel this season couldn't possibly miss Welker's impact, and how he helped Cassel ease into the job by becoming his security blanket. His work after the catch has been particularly remarkable.

Thoughts? It's a very interesting question, IMO.

With all due respect to Welker, who deserves all the praise he gets, I do think if I were going to give the Pats an offensive MVP, it has to go first to Moss for simply allowing the Patriots offense to be what it is, and then to Cassel for executing said offense. Welker would be a close third for being such a key piece in the execution.

 

[captadamnj]

Unfortunately, Welker doesn't have the flash. He could have 12 catches every game, and there would still be the "Yeah but" because he is a "slot receiver". Same scenario as Faulk in my opinion. Both has as much value as anyone on the team TO THE PATS COACHES, PLAYERS, MANAGEMENT AND FANS, but to the outside fan, they just don't get the props they should. That goes to the QB, big play WR and flashy defensive player. Unfortunate, but true.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Thoughts? It's a very interesting question, IMO.

With all due respect to Welker, who deserves all the praise he gets, I do think if I were going to give the Pats an offensive MVP, it has to go first to Moss for simply allowing the Patriots offense to be what it is, and then to Cassel for executing said offense. Welker would be a close third for being such a key piece in the execution.

Fact: Welker had 67 receptions his final season with Miami with no Moss and no QB worth the name. Yes, he doubled his output with Brady and Moss, but he's on track to match or exceed that again with Cassel and a less than reliable Moss.

People who didn't tune out Rich Gannon last week will point to Moss' second TD reception where Gannon pointed to Welker clearing out the passing lane for Moss - something that works both ways with those two. The two of them are as good a team as you'll ever see on the field. Where Welker deserves the MVP nod over Moss and Cassel is his ability to consistently get open and move the chains when Moss is having an off game and Cassel is being limited to the short passing game by the play calling and his experience.

 

[BradyManny]

Unfortunately, Welker doesn't have the flash. He could have 12 catches every game, and there would still be the "Yeah but" because he is a "slot receiver". Same scenario as Faulk in my opinion. Both has as much value as anyone on the team TO THE PATS COACHES, PLAYERS, MANAGEMENT AND FANS, but to the outside fan, they just don't get the props they should. That goes to the QB, big play WR and flashy defensive player. Unfortunate, but true.

In this case, to me, the "yeah but" is "yeah, but part of the reason he's getting open is the Moss factor". And I don't think that takes anything away from Welker, it just adds to the importance of Moss.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

Reiss fields an interesting question in this week's mailbag



Thoughts? It's a very interesting question, IMO.

With all due respect to Welker, who deserves all the praise he gets, I do think if I were going to give the Pats an offensive MVP, it has to go first to Moss for simply allowing the Patriots offense to be what it is, and then to Cassel for executing said offense. Welker would be a close third for being such a key piece in the execution.

Welker may actually deserve it, but pass receivers almost never win the MVP award. Jerry Rice won one in his long, great career, and the last one before him was Don Hutson in 1941.

 

[BradyManny]

Fact: Welker had 67 receptions his final season with Miami with no Moss and no QB worth the name. Yes, he doubled his output with Brady and Moss, but he's on track to match or exceed that again with Cassel and a less than reliable Moss.

People who didn't tune out Rich Gannon last week will point to Moss' second TD reception where Gannon pointed to Welker clearing out the passing lane for Moss - something that works both ways with those two. The two of them are as good a team as you'll ever see on the field. Where Welker deserves the MVP nod over Moss and Cassel is his ability to consistently get open and move the chains when Moss is having an off game and Cassel is being limited to the short passing game by the play calling and his experience.

I wouldn't say Moss is inconsistent in getting open and I wouldn't say he's had off games (save for the Pittsburgh game perhaps, when he truly did drop some catch-able passes). Just look at Belichick's effusive praise of Moss after the Jets game when he called him the most dominant player on the field that day, even though he only had 3 catches. The fact is, if a team is going to put a CB on Moss with safety help, he's going to end up being a decoy more often than a target (especially given Cassel has not yet developed #12's precision on the deep throws), and his production can't be evaluated the same way Welker's can.

And no doubt Moss reaps some benefits from Welker at times, but Moss, IMO, is the key piece in this offense right now, especially with Brady down, he has become all the more important.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

People who didn't tune out Rich Gannon last week will point to Moss' second TD reception where Gannon pointed to Welker clearing out the passing lane for Moss - something that works both ways with those two. The two of them are as good a team as you'll ever see on the field. Where Welker deserves the MVP nod over Moss and Cassel is his ability to consistently get open and move the chains when Moss is having an off game and Cassel is being limited to the short passing game by the play calling and his experience.

Watching it again, it's actually funny--almost everyone in the Raiders secondary has their eyes on Welker, and Moss is just wide open in the end zone.

Moreover, a number of attempts to prevent Welker first downs have turned into Moss touchdowns.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

And no doubt Moss reaps some benefits from Welker at times, but Moss, IMO, is the key piece in this offense right now, especially with Brady down, he has become all the more important.

Of course, there's one other factor that almost everyone ignores when it comes to receivers--their blocking in the run game. Welker's as good as anyone in the league in that aspect of the game, but, of course, almost no one ever notices that.

 

[Lifer]

102 catches without Brady. Just 10 away from his record of 2007.

Just amazing production.

 

[BradyFTW!]

IMO Welker has been the most important player on the Pats' offense this year, followed very closely by Moss. When Brady comes back, Moss will be more important, but Cassel just doesn't have the deep accuracy to fully capitalize on Moss's skillset.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I wouldn't say Moss is inconsistent in getting open and I wouldn't say he's had off games (save for the Pittsburgh game perhaps, when he truly did drop some catch-able passes). Just look at Belichick's effusive praise of Moss after the Jets game when he called him the most dominant player on the field that day, even though he only had 3 catches. The fact is, if a team is going to put a CB on Moss with safety help, he's going to end up being a decoy more often than a target (especially given Cassel has not yet developed #12's precision on the deep throws), and his production can't be evaluated the same way Welker's can.

And no doubt Moss reaps some benefits from Welker at times, but Moss, IMO, is the key piece in this offense right now, especially with Brady down, he has become all the more important.

We must agree to disagree, I also remember more drops than the Pittsburgh game, those are just the most recent and most spectacular.

Welker may not draw as much double coverage as Moss, but that's a function of his short field role and not his ability to hurt a defense - most teams make the trade-off of giving up the underneath routes to prevent the quick strikes on the deep routes. Welker's ability to move the chains is not just critical to moving the team down the field, he's critical to eating the clock to keep the opposing offense off the field and give the defense time to rest. He also was just as productive with a young Mattyice behind Center as he is now with a more NFL-ready Mattyice, you can't say that about Randy.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

Wes rarely if ever messes up,he's tough as nails, and as BOR points out so much of what he does isn't necessarily heralded on the highlight reels. Cassel must have 1000% confidence in Wes to either catch the ball for some gain or block and contribute to a Randy gain or TD.

If I had to vote for an offensive MVP I'd be torn between Wes and Cassel.

 

[BradyManny]

We must agree to disagree, I also remember more drops than the Pittsburgh game, those are just the most recent and most spectacular.

Welker may not draw as much double coverage as Moss, but that's a function of his short field role and not his ability to hurt a defense - most teams make the trade-off of giving up the underneath routes to prevent the quick strikes on the deep routes. Welker's ability to move the chains is not just critical to moving the team down the field, he's critical to eating the clock to keep the opposing offense off the field and give the defense time to rest. He also was just as productive with a young Mattyice behind Center as he is now with a more NFL-ready Mattyice, you can't say that about Randy.

Yeah we'll agree to disagree on this one, especially as my aim is not to diminish Welker's value, as I do believe he is a legit MVP candidate for this team (and maybe by extension, if we make the playoffs, the league). I will say that for your last point about Moss, in Moss' defense, Cassel is still developing a deep ball, but he came in this season already armed with an accurate passing ability underneath. I'd say Cassel's biggest area of improvement, his pocket presence which has gotten better nearly every week, has been to the benefit of both receivers as the season has gone on.

 

[ALP]

of course he should be int he running...

u have the solid stats, now check how many of his catches are for 1st downs, and get back to me

 

[primetime]

He might be the Patriots' MVP, but he's not the league MVP. If I had to vote for a WR to be league MVP, it would be Andre Johnson. He is the Texans, which might not be saying much, but he's the difference between 2-14 and 8-8. That's quite a bit. I might trade Welker and Moss for him.

 

[TealSox]

Wes Welker is definitely the Patriots' MVP, with all due respect to Matt Cassel. With the lack of running game, Welker has been used frequent and often to get those yards you would expect an Adrian Peterson to pick up and move the chains. In that respect, he has been the Patriots running game in the absence of Maroney, Jordan and Morris.

Unfortunately, he doesn't have the stats to be in the running for league MVP. First of all, he would have to break a receiving record to gain some attention. Maybe if he could break Marvin Harrison's receptions in a season record, TDs in a season, or yards by a receiver in a season. Then there is the fact that he isn't really the team's #1 receiver with Moss on the team.

And the last receiver to win league MVP was.....

hmmmm.... never was one.

 

[patsox23]

Welker as MVP is silly, 'though not as silly after one takes a minute to think. As Patriots MVP, I can see it. Cassel and Faulk also would be in the running, obviously, and pretty much no one else. But as LEAGUE MVP? That will never happen, and shouldn't.

 

[Remix 6]

i dont think he is..if your gonna give MVP to the player that gets the most catches(since a lot of stats are looked into..unfairly)..Andre Johnson has 1 more catch and 400 more yards

 

[MassPats38]

Not to take anything away from Wes' value to the Pats or his likely status as team MVP, but I would venture a guess the most important contributions a receiver can make to a team is TDs, then yards, then receptions as far as game outcomes go in MVP voting. The thought would be a receiver could catch 200 3 yard passes, but those passes may not move the chains or amount to points and thus may do little to win games. It is also significant if a receiver consistently draws double coverage, which Welker does not.

Wes has 2 TDs, 1071 yds (10.7 yds per catch), and 102 receptions. In comparison, Steve Smith, in 2 fewer games, has 6 TDs, 1240 yds (17.7 yds per catch) and 70 receptions. Moss has 10 TDs, 908yds (13.8 per catch) and 66 receptions. Moss and Smith, as an example, tend to add more yardage and points to the board and do so in crowds. I doubt the fact a receiver puts the team in a position to score points would factor into the MVP decision, and that is one of Welker's greatest contributions.

 

[BradyManny]

Not to take anything away from Wes' value to the Pats or his likely status as team MVP, but I would venture a guess the most important contributions a receiver can make to a team is TDs, then yards, then receptions as far as game outcomes go in MVP voting. The thought would be a receiver could catch 200 3 yard passes, but those passes may not move the chains or amount to points and thus may do little to win games. It is also significant if a receiver consistently draws double coverage, which Welker does not.

Wes has 2 TDs, 1071 yds (10.7 yds per catch), and 102 receptions. In comparison, Steve Smith, in 2 fewer games, has 6 TDs, 1240 yds (17.7 yds per catch) and 70 receptions. Moss has 10 TDs, 908yds (13.8 per catch) and 66 receptions. Moss and Smith, as an example, tend to add more yardage and points to the board and do so in crowds. I doubt the fact a receiver puts the team in a position to score points would factor into the MVP decision, and that is one of Welker's greatest contributions.

Interesting, but also worth noting Welker has been responsible for 51 First Downs, which is an important stat. Half of his catches yield first downs, which to me, sounds very good for a slot guy, and a guy who also gets a lot of passes at the LOS. Moss by comparison has gained 43 first downs in 66 catches. But I don't think that means Welker is less or more valuable, it just shows the obvious - Moss catches the deep and intermediate stuff, Welker works underneath. But, I thought first downs was a stat worth throwing out there nonetheless.