AFC Playoff Race - Week 15

[PYPER]

I realize that by now everyone knows the playoff situation but I figured I'd continue posting this model for anyone interested.

This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 12-2; Pit,@Ind; 0 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 13-3
2) Steelers: 11-3; @Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 12.5 - 3.5
3) Jets: 9-5; @Sea,Mia; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5
4) Broncos: 8-6; Buf,@SD; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 9.5 - 6.5
5) Colts: 10-4; @Jax,Ten; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
6) Ravens: 9-5; @Dal,Jax; 1 EW’s; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5–5.5
================================================
7) Dolphins: 9-5; @KC,@NYJ; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5
8) Patriots: 9-5; Ari,@Buf; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5
9) Chargers: 6-8; @TB,Den; 0 EW's, 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 7-9

Note: Teams are ordered based on their expected records, which is NOT necessarily the way it would look if the season were to end today.

Patriots most likely road to the playoffs: AFC Wild Card

Scenerio #1:
Patriots must win out and finish 11-5
Ravens must lose or tie one game, at Dallas or at home vs the Jaguars
Scenerio #2:
Patriots must win out and finish 11-5
Colts must lose twice or lose once and tie once, at Jax and at home vs the Titans

Patriots road to the division title and #3 seed:
Patriots must win out and finish 11-5
Both the Jets and Dolphins each must lose or tie one game (In addition to playing one another week 17, the Jets and Dolphins both have very winnable games next week. The saving grace is that both of their games are on the road against teams (Seattle & Kansas City) that appear to be playing hard, if not necessarily well). As long as one of them loses this week and we win versus Arizona, we'll enter week 17 with a reasonable shot at the division title. If both win, the only way we take the division is if the Dolphins and Jets tie in week 17, which obviously isn't very likely.

Who to root for in Week 16:
1) Patriots over Cardinals
2) Cowboys over Ravens
3a) Seahawks over Jets
3b) Chiefs over Dolphins
4a) Jaguars over Colts
4b) Steelers over Titans (This one might need explaining. If Tennessee wins they clinch the #1 seed and will have nothing to play for when they play the Colts in week 17. On the other hand, if the Steelers win, the Titans would enter week 17 needing a win vs the Colts and a Steelers loss to the Browns to regain the #1 seed. That should be enough to keep their starters in the game.)

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Who to root for in Week 16:
1) Patriots over Cardinals
2) Cowboys over Ravens
3a) Seahawks over Jets
3b) Chiefs over Dolphins
4a) Jaguars over Colts
4b) Steelers over Titans (This one might need explaining. If Tennessee wins they clinch the #1 seed and will have nothing to play for when they play the Colts in week 17. On the other hand, if the Steelers win, the Titans would enter week 17 needing a win vs the Colts and a Steelers loss to the Browns to regain the #1 seed. That should be enough to keep their starters in the game.)

I would add.....

5a) Bills over Denver
5b) Oakland over Texans

This one requires a lot of explaining. If the Patriots lose to the Cardinals and beat the Bills and if the Ravens beat the Cowboys and lose to the Jaguars, New England and Baltimore would have the same record (10-6), and the same record within the conference (7-5) -- which is the first tiebreaker in a wild card scenario since the teams did not face each other this season. This would get us to strength of victories. The Pats beat both the Bills and Denver but assuming the Pats beat the Bills again a Bills win would count twice. Both the Pats and Ravens have beaten Oakland (a wash) but the Ravens have beaten the Texans.

 

[KY Pats Fan]

I think Herm Edwards (as bad as I hate to say this) will have the chiefs looking for blood after blowing the game yesterday. I think Holmgren knows how to plan for Farve and the Jets looked bad in that win as Losman was the Jets best player.

In all, I think both the Jets and Fins lose next week.

 

[PYPER]

I would add.....

5a) Bills over Denver
5b) Oakland over Texans

This one requires a lot of explaining. If the Patriots lose to the Cardinals and beat the Bills and if the Ravens beat the Cowboys and lose to the Jaguars, New England and Baltimore would have the same record (10-6), and the same record within the conference (7-5) -- which is the first tiebreaker in a wild card scenario since the teams did not face each other this season. This would get us to strength of victories. The Pats beat both the Bills and Denver but assuming the Pats beat the Bills again a Bills win would count twice. Both the Pats and Ravens have beaten Oakland (a wash) but the Ravens have beaten the Texans.

Nice work!

 

[Lansdowne]

Good stuff PYPER and TheGodInAGreyHoodie!

So looking at the Week 16 schedule... (all times ET)

Thur, Dec 18

8:15 PM

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Go Jags!)

Sat, Dec 20

8:15 PM

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys (Go Cowboys!)

Sun, Dec 21

1:00 PM

Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots (Go Pats!)
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (Go Chiefs!)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans (Go Steelers!)

4:05 PM

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks (Go Seahawks!)
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (Eh...gotorontobillsyabunchascrubs)
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans (Go Cowboys, I'd really rather not have to root for the Mad Max rejects!)

 

[PatriotsInGA]

I think Herm Edwards (as bad as I hate to say this) will have the chiefs looking for blood after blowing the game yesterday. I think Holmgren knows how to plan for Farve and the Jets looked bad in that win as Losman was the Jets best player.

In all, I think both the Jets and Fins lose next week.

the fins wont lose, but the jets will. the seahawks looked good gainst us so the jets will lose

 

[ivanvamp]

I'll say this right now. Don't be shocked if the Colts lose their next two games. Here's why:

1. Indy hasn't really been playing that well, despite reeling off a long winning streak. They crushed Cincy last week, but except for that, here have been their wins during this streak:

- by 3 against NE (easily could have lost that game)
- by 4 at Pittsburgh (should have lost that game)
- by 6 against Houston
- by 3 at San Diego
- by 4 at Cleveland
- by 10 against Detroit (and was tied late in that game)

Which of these games counts as an "impressive" victory? I'd say the win against Pittsburgh, b/c the Steelers are very tough and it was at Heinz. But in that game they scored on a long TD pass that was incredibly lucky (crazy tipped ball) and were fortunate to pick off a pass by Roethlisberger late. So even that game required a lot of luck on their part.


2. Jacksonville may be tougher than you think. The Jags already beat Indy earlier this year, 23-21, and is coming off a nice win against Green Bay. Indy is definitely better than Jax, but it wouldn't shock me (it would be a mild surprise, but not a stunner) if the Jags upset the Colts.


3. Now, that would bring us to week 17, where the Colts play Tennessee. A few weeks ago, I figured the Titans would lay down in this one b/c they had the #1 seed sewn up. But right now, they're just 1 game up on Pittsburgh, and the two teams play next week. If the Steelers win (and that would surprise nobody), suddenly they have the #1 seed. The Titans, who, I would imagine, *really* want that #1 seed, play at 1:00 in week 17...same time the Steelers do. They'd need to win that game, so they'd play all-out against the Colts. And they're better than Indy is.

So is it *likely* that Indy loses their last 2? No. But is it something I can see happening? Yeah, there's a real chance of it.

 

[PatriotsInGA]

seein indy not get into the playoffs and us get in would crush them. i like it

 

[Disco Volante]

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (Eh...gotorontobillsyabunchascrubs)

I'd root for the Broncos.

The only way we win the division is if we win out, putting us at 11-5. The Broncos already have 6 losses so even if they win out it will not impact our playoff seeding.

Also, a Broncos loss and a Chargers win next week sets up a division title game in San Diego for the final week of the season. Do not want San Diego in the playoffs.

Then again it depends who frightens you more Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense, or Jay Cutler and the Broncos offense.

 

[Lansdowne]

I'd root for the Broncos.

The only way we win the division is if we win out, putting us at 11-5. The Broncos already have 6 losses so even if they win out it will not impact our playoff seeding.

Also, a Broncos loss and a Chargers win next week sets up a division title game in San Diego for the final week of the season. Do not want San Diego in the playoffs.

Then again it depends who frightens you more Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense, or Jay Cutler and the Broncos offense.

Chargers have a running game and a better defense than the Broncos, so I'd rather face the Broncos.

 

[Disco Volante]

Chargers have a running game and a better defense than the Broncos, so I'd rather face the Broncos.

As would I, especially considering our two opposite performances against the two teams.

 

[PatriotsInGA]

As would I, especially considering our two opposite performances against the two teams.

i was expecting to beat denver by 3 or 4 not 35! so yeah i'd rather face denver

 

[PYPER]

As would I, especially considering our two opposite performances against the two teams.

I'd prefer the opportunity to redeem ourselves. We're much better now than we were when we played San Diego. Likewise, we're not really 34 points better than Denver. They would likely play us much tougher in a rematch.

I'd be thrilled if we could get another shot at the teams that knocked us off this year.

Perhaps the Jets in the 1st round, then Pittsburgh, and then Indy. And to top it all off, how about a Super Bowl rematch with the Giants. That'd be sweet...

 

[Sivy]

so after looking at nfl.com, it looks like either way, patriots will play (if they get the 6th seed, or the division) most likely, the jets or the dolphins.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

I'd prefer the opportunity to redeem ourselves. We're much better now than we were when we played San Diego. Likewise, we're not really 34 points better than Denver. They would likely play us much tougher in a rematch.

I'd be thrilled if we could get another shot at the teams that knocked us off this year.

Perhaps the Jets in the 1st round, then Pittsburgh, and then Indy. And to top it all off, how about a Super Bowl rematch with the Giants. That'd be sweet...

I don't care who we play. As long as our record is 1-0 in the month of Feb.

 

[Sivy]

I'd prefer the opportunity to redeem ourselves. We're much better now than we were when we played San Diego. Likewise, we're not really 34 points better than Denver. They would likely play us much tougher in a rematch.

I'd be thrilled if we could get another shot at the teams that knocked us off this year.

Perhaps the Jets in the 1st round, then Pittsburgh, and then Indy. And to top it all off, how about a Super Bowl rematch with the Giants. That'd be sweet...

what would be sweet about it, is the pats would probably be the huge underdogs. Would that make up for last year if they won?

 

[Lansdowne]

what would be sweet about it, is the pats would probably be the huge underdogs. Would that make up for last year if they won?

Nothing will change what happened last year, and considering what was at stake, I can't say for sure that it would "make up" for it. But coming off a crushing SB defeat, to return the following year and get revenge? It would sure ease the wounds, that's for sure. It'd be similar to 2003/2004 with the Red Sox. If you're a Red Sox fan, you'll always cringe at the Aaron Boone highlight, but your mind will be at ease knowing what happened the following year.

 

[karran_s]

the fins wont lose, but the jets will. the seahawks looked good gainst us so the jets will lose

Boy.. I hope the fins choke on all that tuna they are being forcefed each week...

 

[Sivy]

Boy.. I hope the fins choke on all that tuna they are being forcefed each week...

well SF should have had another chance at a late game win sunday, if im not mistaken, taking your helmet off on the feild of play is an unsportsman like pen. Joey Porter did it after his sack that pretty much ended the game. To me, that call should be all over NFLN and ESPN just as much as the PIT td at the end of the balt game.

 

[Pats726]

well SF should have had another chance at a late game win sunday, if im not mistaken, taking your helmet off on the feild of play is an unsportsman like pen. Joey Porter did it after his sack that pretty much ended the game. To me, that call should be all over NFLN and ESPN just as much as the PIT td at the end of the balt game.

It was called...although late AND after the sack...so it's already the Fins ball. I was upset they did not call it immediately AFTER that...but it was way late. And fines for a deliberate childish move?? None..as far as I can see.